NYT/Siena: Biden +14

[cvparty]

bruh
https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1275716182700679170?s=20

[CookieDamage]

Biden under 51, good for trump

[Skunk]

Awful number for an incument : 36%.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sampling period: June 16-22, 2020
Sample size: 1337 registered voters
MoE: 3%

Another candidate 3%
Would not vote 2%
Undecided/don't know 9%

[Sir Mohamed]

D O M I N A T I N G
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[Skye]

Trumpists need to decide between retweeting the inevitably angry Trump tweet calling this poll "Fake news" or recognize that the president is in an awful position and needs to change course ASAP or he'll lose.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No wonder why no one shows up to his rallies. It just proves that Trump only won on 2016 due to Russian help in Wikileaks and Gary Johnson took the 3 percent in MI, PA, FL and WI to help Trump get in. Trump didnt get it on his own, due to the fact, he cant win now, with Russia or Gary Johnson

[Pericles]

I'm starting to get the feeling that this won't be a pure tossup close election.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Awful number for an incument : 36%.

Not aimed at SN, but these are the responses that I anticipate to this poll:

- It's a D-friendly pollster.

- Pollster missed the 2018 FL-SEN and FL-GOV race.  

- Pollster oversampled Democrats.  

- Trump is still leading in the swing states.  

- 14% undecided? Trash it.  Besides, these voters will break for Trump and so the race is more like Biden +1-2.  

-  Hillary was up 10 pts. on this date in 2016.  

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It's not, without Justin Amash or a 3.5 percent unemployment like Trump had in 2016, with Obama's economy which he raised taxes not cut taxes which created surpluses not deficits and a 3rd party spoiler like a Justin Amash or Gary Johnson,  Trump cant win

[cvparty]

Awful number for an incument : 36%.

- It's a D-friendly pollster.

- Pollster missed the 2018 FL-SEN and FL-GOV race. 

- Pollster oversampled Democrats. 

- Trump is still leading in the swing states. 

- 14% undecided? Trash it.  Besides, these voters will break for Trump and so the race is more like Biden +1-2. 

-  Hillary was up 200% on this date in 2016. 

love how we’re preserving SN’s spirit in the most ironic way possible

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Awful number for an incument : 36%.

- It's a D-friendly pollster.

- Pollster missed the 2018 FL-SEN and FL-GOV race.  

- Pollster oversampled Democrats.  

- Trump is still leading in the swing states.  

- 14% undecided? Trash it.  Besides, these voters will break for Trump and so the race is more like Biden +1-2.  

-  Hillary was up 200% on this date in 2016.  

love how we’re preserving SN’s spirit in the most ironic way possible

Again, SN, not aimed at you, dear (since I know you're likely reading this thread), but there are more standard Biden > 10 pt. poll responses:

- Wait until the economy surges back/we have a vaccine/Biden needs to speak on live TV/Trump's team REALLY starts to campaign.  

- Real people with whom I work all support Trump.  This forum needs to get out of their mom's houses.  

- Outlier.  It's actually more like Biden +2-3.

Et cetera, et cetera.  

--

I'm not concinced Biden will win by such lofty margins, but the bottom line is that Trump is in trouble.  

[MillennialModerate]

Isn’t it crazy that because of the polarized and divided nation we have that a 14 point victory would only result in around 400ish electoral votes. In normal times, even 12 years ago - a 14 point victory would have equaled a 1980 landslide

This would be the map with a Biden +14

With that being said polls like this make me frustrated it’s only June because we all know this isn’t going to last. The debates and the economy coming back and the right going disgustingly low - will alll bring this race back to competitive.

However - its hard not to like Bidens chances right now (fingers crossed).  The best part of the poll is the fact that numbers are moving not just on disapproval of Trump but approval of Biden. Even if this poll was off by 4 points that would still be a Biden +10, which almost definitely would bring the Senate in with him and maybe even add on a few house seats (actually with Gerrymandering I think you’d need Biden +12 to add house seats. Biden +8 to keep it as is)

[American2020]

I'm starting to get the feeling that this won't be a pure tossup close election.

What a huge margin I didn't expect. A "sleeping" or a "bidon (french)" Joe Biden is crushing Trump. I can't imagine what the margin'd be if there's a political animal (Truman, LBJ or Bill Clinton) or a charismatic guy (JFK or Obama).

More and more people think Trump's presidency is a miserable failure. If the results are like this poll, it'd be the worst defeat for an incumbent president since Hoover.

I'm waiting polls in the states.

[BlueSwan]

Massive jobs bump.

[Ferguson97]

Lmao we absolutely love to see it

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1275722118123184129

[wbrocks67]

The favorability #s really just tell the whole tale:

Trump: 40/56 (-16) — with 50% very unfavorable
Biden: 52/42 (+10)

Also what's fascinating - 2016 this is not. Only 3% nationwide are picking "another candidate" - even only 4% among 18-29 year olds.

[Landslide Lyndon]

How long till we accept that double digit margins isn't a temporary bump but the current state of the race?

[wbrocks67]

Crosstabs are fascinating. Trump doing horrifically with Whites and 65+.

Males: Biden 43 - Trump 40
Women: Biden 55 - Trump 33
18-29: Biden 60 - Trump 26
30-44: Biden 56 - Trump 24
45-64: Biden 44 - Trump 44
65+: Biden 47 - Trump 45
Whites: Trump 44 - Biden 43
Blacks: Biden 79 - Trump 5
Hispanics: Biden 64 - Trump 25
Indies: Biden 47 - Trump 29

Meanwhile, Biden doing better than HRC among young voters and Hispanic voters, and when push comes to shove, I don't think Trump's 5% among blacks moves much.

[Ferguson97]

If Biden is consistently winning by low double digits, then Trump has absolutely no hope unless something completely unprecedented happens

[Podgy the Bear]

The tremendous swing of independents and 65+ to Biden.  That tells you a lot.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1275733209666420737

[Chips]

Awful number for an incument : 36%.

Not aimed at SN, but these are the responses that I anticipate to this poll:

- It's a D-friendly pollster.

- Pollster missed the 2018 FL-SEN and FL-GOV race.  

- Pollster oversampled Democrats.  

- Trump is still leading in the swing states.  

- 14% undecided? Trash it.  Besides, these voters will break for Trump and so the race is more like Biden +1-2.  

-  Hillary was up 10 pts. on this date in 2016.  

Yeah. I tend to agree with that.

[American2020]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Margin: 10.4%