WI: Marquette adds a database of LV samples for a bunch of RV polls, plus one generic Opp/Trump poll
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  WI: Marquette adds a database of LV samples for a bunch of RV polls, plus one generic Opp/Trump poll		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: WI: Marquette adds a database of LV samples for a bunch of RV polls, plus one generic Opp/Trump poll  (Read 707 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: June 23, 2020, 06:41:05 PM »
« edited: June 24, 2020, 01:32:49 AM by Senator YE »
https://lubarcenter.shinyapps.io/MLSPBook/

The Trump vs Generic Opponent poll:

In a release on April 7, 2019
800 registered voters
MoE not given, but ~4% for other ~800 rv WI-marquette surveys

Probably or definitely re-elect Trump 42%
Probably or definitely someone other than Trump Trump 57%
Refused 0%
Undecided 4%
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2020, 09:19:31 PM »
Trump is finished
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kireev
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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2020, 10:19:28 PM »
Looks like Trump is going to be at 42% or 43% at best and Biden in the low 50s.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2020, 10:33:18 PM »
Trump wasn't looking too hot in early 2019, so this makes sense.

Bit weird to release a 14 month old poll, though.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2020, 10:34:25 PM »
These numbers are all for Wisconsin, by the way.
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YE
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« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2020, 01:33:07 AM »
Added state to the title.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2020, 01:55:28 AM »
Trump will get more than 42% in WI. My feeling is Biden would win 51-47% if the election was held today.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2020, 06:51:18 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on June 24, 2020, 01:55:28 AM
Trump will get more than 42% in WI. My feeling is Biden would win 51-47% if the election was held today.

I would say that is what would happen if Trump and Biden both ran OK campaigns and there's a regression to the mean where Biden wins by 6 or 7. Trump could still win here if the difference in the quality of the campaigns was historic.
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