More likely to flip for senate: MI or TX?

[Escape Pod Zero]

I am going to say Michigan for now, but that could definitely change.

[Gracile]

Texas in this environment.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Likely D vs Lean R.

[MT Treasurer]

They’re both absurdly underrated and will unleash colossal NUT maps simultaneously and outperform their party's presidential nominee by triple digits, so why going to the bother of entertaining a scenario in which either seat has more than a 0% chance of flipping? It’s like asking whether Daines or Perdue is more likely to lose.

Incumbents of this caliber just aren’t "vulnerable."

[Mr. Smith]

In most cases, I'd say R for MI,but that vote isn't underestimated to the same extent D's are in TX.

That said, this depends heavily on whether its Hegar or Royce into the final stretch.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean D vs Likely R. Cornyn is bound to outperform Trump just a little bit as he's not as controversial and Texas tends to be redder down ballot, plus he's a "non-offensive incumbent". If Biden wins TX, it'll be by  very narrow margin. Earlier on I thought James would move MI to tossup column, but for now it's a weak lean D. He's gotten a mild amount of positive press, and could definately win over some conservative black voters that don't vote R because of racism. His message has also been quite good in my view, but he should separate himself from Trump a bit more, maybe be sort of like a Young Kim, and call out the president when needed

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In most cases, I'd say R for MI,but that vote isn't underestimated to the same extent D's are in TX.

That said, this depends heavily on whether its Hegar or Royce into the final stretch.

Neither seems especially stronger than the other to me. What do you think gives one of them a significant GE edge over the other?

[Suburbia]

Michigan

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

TX, Cruz won by only 2 pts and Greg Abbott was facing Valdez bot White. Had White been nominated for Gov, the Gov race would have been competetive and Ds won Congressional seats in TX too

[ProgressiveModerate]

TX, Cruz won by only 2 pts and Greg Abbott was facing Valdez bot White. Had White been nominated for Gov, the Gov race would have been competetive and Ds won Congressional seats in TX too

Yeah and Stabenow won by 6 even though she ran a terribe campaign against a pretty decent challenger.

[SnowLabrador]

Michigan

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't winning any Clinton states at 36 approvals