New York 6/23 Primary Results Megathread

[America Needs R'hllor]

Really happy with the Torres victory! A homophobic conservative defeated by a pragmatic progressive gay man. I'm ok with Bowman winning- Engel's loss was entirely his fault- and Jones winning is ok too. Won't really mind if Maloney falls, and glad Clarke won big.

The thing I am worried about is the sometimes kneejerk progressive "primary all incumbents!" thing. I really hope great people like Nadler and Meng won't fall victim to this.

[Pyro]

Good news for Engel, if these results hold he'll never need to care again.

[Roblox]

Engel fans be like "oh no, not the guy that literally said he only cares about his district because he has a primary!".

[Oryxslayer]

Okay guys, how many races do we think the AP and commentators are going to get wrong after last night given the disparities between the uncounted early vote and the counted E-Day vote? This is despite Georgia being in our rear-view mirror and everyone hopefully should have learned their lesson.

This is not a statement in support of any particular candidate. It is a statement in support of caution and respect for uncertainty.

[Abolish ICE]

I hope all these new congresspersons are more like AOC and Pressley than Omar and Tlaib.

Mondaire Jones and especially Ritchie Torres seem pretty good (better than Pressley or AOC tbh).  Jones seems like a solid progressive who has managed to (from what I've read) thread the needle of harshly condemning the actions of Netanyahu, the illegal settlements, and calling for better living conditions in Palestinian areas without ever (AFAIK) crossing the line between being at least somewhat anti-Israel and being anti-Semitic.  

I mention this because it suggests that Jones is in general someone inclined to acknowledge the nuances in complex and hot-button issues rather than engage in simplistic, buzzword-based demagoguery.  We certainly need more of that in Congress and I'm sure there are other examples of him doing it with other issues, but for brevity's sake, I'll only add that I think he'll turn out to be a pretty effective legislator if that does indeed turn out to be the case.  He may turn out to have been an improvement over Lowey, but we'll see.  Don't wanna put the cart before the horse  

Ritchie Torres seems awesome, period.  The more I research him, the more I like him and I'd be delighted if he became the template going forward for progressive Berniecrats in safe districts.  I could see him becoming a Senator or a member of House leadership someday if he delivers on his potential.  I'd certainly vote for him and I can't wait to see where he goes from here.  Definitely a potential rising star though, that's for sure!

I don't know what Bowman will be like tbh.  On the one hand, I like to try to give folks the benefit of the doubt when I can as general rule even if I sometimes get a little rhetorically OTT here from time to time and Bowman has genuinely impressed me several times during the campaign re: his campaigning skills and seemed like he had a decent shot of winning even before Engel's gaffe (in hindsight, he probably would have won anyway).  

OTOH, he's explicitly and unambiguously allied himself with some really, really bad folks in the specific context of anti-Semitism (ex: a hate group run by a guy who has - IIRC - claimed white supremacy is an intrinsic and definitive feature of being Jewish and went out of his way to defend another anti-Semite who claimed that Jews control the weather) and seems like a bit of a rhetorical bomb-thrower (albeit, so far more AOC style bomb-throwing than Omar-style).  Then again, some of his anti-Semitic associations were in a context where one could argue either way as to whether he knew the full history of the folks he was praising, so I guess I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.  I do think he'll be either an AOC type or a Tlaib/Omar type, but it is hard to say which atm.  

Suraj Patel is a creepy sleeze who has - among other things - made FaceBook posts slobbering over and stating his desire to have sex with a 16 year-old and used fake profiles on dating apps to try to trick young people into meeting up with him ostensibly so he could make campaign pitches to them.  The guy just seems like a first-class sketchball and while I want Maloney primaried as much as anyone, I'm pretty sure Patel would be worse despite Maloney being a corporatist anti-vaxer (*barf*).  We can do so much better here than either of these two tbh.  My guess is that Maloney wins based on what's left to count and where it is from, but we'll see.  

[Coldstream]

I hope all these new congresspersons are more like AOC and Pressley than Omar and Tlaib.

Mondaire Jones and especially Ritchie Torres seem pretty good (better than Pressley or AOC tbh).  Jones seems like a solid progressive who has managed to (from what I've read) thread the needle of harshly condemning the actions of Netanyahu, the illegal settlements, and calling for better living conditions in Palestinian areas without ever (AFAIK) crossing the line between being at least somewhat anti-Israel and being anti-Semitic.  

I mention this because it suggests that Jones is in general someone inclined to acknowledge the nuances in complex and hot-button issues rather than engage in simplistic, buzzword-based demagoguery.  We certainly need more of that in Congress and I'm sure there are other examples of him doing it with other issues, but for brevity's sake, I'll only add that I think he'll turn out to be a pretty effective legislator if that does indeed turn out to be the case.  He may turn out to have been an improvement over Lowey, but we'll see.  Don't wanna put the cart before the horse  

Ritchie Torres seems awesome, period.  The more I research him, the more I like him and I'd be delighted if he became the template going forward for progressive Berniecrats in safe districts.  I could see him becoming a Senator or a member of House leadership someday if he delivers on his potential.  I'd certainly vote for him and I can't wait to see where he goes from here.  Definitely a potential rising star though, that's for sure!

I don't know what Bowman will be like tbh.  On the one hand, I like to try to give folks the benefit of the doubt when I can as general rule even if I sometimes get a little rhetorically OTT here from time to time and Bowman has genuinely impressed me several times during the campaign re: his campaigning skills and seemed like he had a decent shot of winning even before Engel's gaffe (in hindsight, he probably would have won anyway).  

OTOH, he's explicitly and unambiguously allied himself with some really, really bad folks in the specific context of anti-Semitism (ex: a hate group run by a guy who has - IIRC - claimed white supremacy is an intrinsic and definitive feature of being Jewish and went out of his way to defend another anti-Semite who claimed that Jews control the weather) and seems like a bit of a rhetorical bomb-thrower (albeit, so far more AOC style bomb-throwing than Omar-style).  Then again, some of his anti-Semitic associations were in a context where one could argue either way as to whether he knew the full history of the folks he was praising, so I guess I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.  I do think he'll be either an AOC type or a Tlaib/Omar type, but it is hard to say which atm.  

Suraj Patel is a creepy sleeze who has - among other things - made FaceBook posts slobbering over and stating his desire to have sex with a 16 year-old and used fake profiles on dating apps to try to trick young people into meeting up with him ostensibly so he could make campaign pitches to them.  The guy just seems like a first-class sketchball and while I want Maloney primaried as much as anyone, I'm pretty sure Patel would be worse despite Maloney being a corporatist anti-vaxer (*barf*).  We can do so much better here than either of these two tbh.  My guess is that Maloney wins based on what's left to count and where it is from, but we'll see.  

To be fair to Bowman, if you read the IP section of his website it’s pretty nuanced and seems like he understands the need for peace/wants to be constructive. Sounds more like Pressley than any of the others when it comes to Israel.

[SInNYC]

It is way too early to get happy or sad, considering mail vote counting hasn't started yet. There are plenty of reasons why mail voters could be different from in person ones, and I really don't see how the betting markets are so sure of results.

But assuming these results hold up, its a huge loss for the New York machine. Machine backed incumbents lost, and lost big. Engel was endorsed by everybody in the machine and had a particularly strong endorsement by Hillary. But I fear that the machine will play redistricting shenanigans in 2020.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/electprogress/status/1275768613048397824?s=21

I hope they won’t have to retract this.

[Abolish ICE]

I hope all these new congresspersons are more like AOC and Pressley than Omar and Tlaib.

Mondaire Jones and especially Ritchie Torres seem pretty good (better than Pressley or AOC tbh).  Jones seems like a solid progressive who has managed to (from what I've read) thread the needle of harshly condemning the actions of Netanyahu, the illegal settlements, and calling for better living conditions in Palestinian areas without ever (AFAIK) crossing the line between being at least somewhat anti-Israel and being anti-Semitic.  

I mention this because it suggests that Jones is in general someone inclined to acknowledge the nuances in complex and hot-button issues rather than engage in simplistic, buzzword-based demagoguery.  We certainly need more of that in Congress and I'm sure there are other examples of him doing it with other issues, but for brevity's sake, I'll only add that I think he'll turn out to be a pretty effective legislator if that does indeed turn out to be the case.  He may turn out to have been an improvement over Lowey, but we'll see.  Don't wanna put the cart before the horse  

Ritchie Torres seems awesome, period.  The more I research him, the more I like him and I'd be delighted if he became the template going forward for progressive Berniecrats in safe districts.  I could see him becoming a Senator or a member of House leadership someday if he delivers on his potential.  I'd certainly vote for him and I can't wait to see where he goes from here.  Definitely a potential rising star though, that's for sure!

I don't know what Bowman will be like tbh.  On the one hand, I like to try to give folks the benefit of the doubt when I can as general rule even if I sometimes get a little rhetorically OTT here from time to time and Bowman has genuinely impressed me several times during the campaign re: his campaigning skills and seemed like he had a decent shot of winning even before Engel's gaffe (in hindsight, he probably would have won anyway).  

OTOH, he's explicitly and unambiguously allied himself with some really, really bad folks in the specific context of anti-Semitism (ex: a hate group run by a guy who has - IIRC - claimed white supremacy is an intrinsic and definitive feature of being Jewish and went out of his way to defend another anti-Semite who claimed that Jews control the weather) and seems like a bit of a rhetorical bomb-thrower (albeit, so far more AOC style bomb-throwing than Omar-style).  Then again, some of his anti-Semitic associations were in a context where one could argue either way as to whether he knew the full history of the folks he was praising, so I guess I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.  I do think he'll be either an AOC type or a Tlaib/Omar type, but it is hard to say which atm.  

Suraj Patel is a creepy sleeze who has - among other things - made FaceBook posts slobbering over and stating his desire to have sex with a 16 year-old and used fake profiles on dating apps to try to trick young people into meeting up with him ostensibly so he could make campaign pitches to them.  The guy just seems like a first-class sketchball and while I want Maloney primaried as much as anyone, I'm pretty sure Patel would be worse despite Maloney being a corporatist anti-vaxer (*barf*).  We can do so much better here than either of these two tbh.  My guess is that Maloney wins based on what's left to count and where it is from, but we'll see.  

To be fair to Bowman, if you read the IP section of his website it’s pretty nuanced and seems like he understands the need for peace/wants to be constructive. Sounds more like Pressley than any of the others when it comes to Israel.

Like I said, I am willing to give Bowman the benefit of the doubt for now and I'm sure time will tell one way or another.  Hopefully, he just heard he'd been endorsed by a group with an inoffensive sounding title and decided to say something nice about them since they were supporting him and then never gave it a second thought.

[Consuming is good, it's what we're made for]

Wow, New York did good in a lot of races last night. Very interesting. I think AOC, Bowman, Torres, and Jones will be formidable forces in the progressive movement going forward. Some of them could be future Presidents/VPs.

[Badger]

These results are terrible. Just awful. Victory of Torres, Bowman and Jones at the same time is just a big nightmare for all moderates in the Democratic Party.

And I'm not unhappy because of Diaz Sr. lost

Moderates in Democratic party will meet the same fate as moderates in Republican party did. And eventually the need of strong third party (centrist) will become obvious. But that will not happen in this (up to 2030) decade. Though i hope to live long enough to see it....

Stop with your fetishizing moderates. This had little to do with ideology. Mostly this was Voting out or rejecting overly entrenched political hacks and carpetbaggers. Besides, why should moderates represent the most liberal and Progressive congressional districts in the country?

[Annihilation]

Is Maloney going to lose?

[smoltchanov]

These results are terrible. Just awful. Victory of Torres, Bowman and Jones at the same time is just a big nightmare for all moderates in the Democratic Party.

And I'm not unhappy because of Diaz Sr. lost

Moderates in Democratic party will meet the same fate as moderates in Republican party did. And eventually the need of strong third party (centrist) will become obvious. But that will not happen in this (up to 2030) decade. Though i hope to live long enough to see it....

Stop with your fetishizing moderates. This had little to do with ideology. Mostly this was Voting out or rejecting overly entrenched political hacks and carpetbaggers. Besides, why should moderates represent the most liberal and Progressive congressional districts in the country?

Where did i mentioned these particular districts?? I spoke about general tendencies... For me - liberals are most logical candidates in districts, which are D+7 or more, conservatives - R+7 or more, and moderates - for D+7 - R+7 districts. Roughly so...

[Babeuf]

Wonderful site set up by NYC DSA showing results and precinct maps for all of their endorsed races. Really fun to browse.

http://results.socialists.nyc/full-results.html?district=SD18

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm glad the DC fossil Engel has lost. We need more fresh faces in congress to get things on wages, healthcare, climate and infrastructure done. Since this is one of the the most liberal districts, so why not having a very liberal rep here? In suburban districts, Dems should run more centrist candidates to maintain competitive. More diversity among congressional Dems in terms of personal background and ideology from "social democratic" to centrist is a healthy thing.

[Beet]

These results are terrible. Just awful. Victory of Torres, Bowman and Jones at the same time is just a big nightmare for all moderates in the Democratic Party.

And I'm not unhappy because of Diaz Sr. lost

Moderates in Democratic party will meet the same fate as moderates in Republican party did. And eventually the need of strong third party (centrist) will become obvious. But that will not happen in this (up to 2030) decade. Though i hope to live long enough to see it....

Stop with your fetishizing moderates. This had little to do with ideology. Mostly this was Voting out or rejecting overly entrenched political hacks and carpetbaggers. Besides, why should moderates represent the most liberal and Progressive congressional districts in the country?

Where did i mentioned these particular districts?? I spoke about general tendencies... For me - liberals are most logical candidates in districts, which are D+7 or more, conservatives - R+7 or more, and moderates - for D+7 - R+7 districts. Roughly so...

If you want third parties support IRV! I'm sure everyone is sick of having to grit their teeth and vote for a loathsome choice just so the worst one doesn't get a plurality.

[Oryxslayer]

Is Maloney going to lose?

Probably not given that the absentees are large and disproportionately from Manhattan. Given what we know about who is actually voting absentee in this district, aka residents with means who fled the city when restrictions were first going into place, it isn't that much of a reach to expect Maloney to do very well in these votes. Given the shear volume of absentees its very well possible that this race would never have been close if the votes were all counted at once, if the absentees are biased.

This is a great explanation of why I keep warning everyone to stop counting their chickens, especially after Georgia. Once you have followed California elections you get used to long vote counts with large baskets of votes that can override election day, especially since each vote baskets is often made up of different people demographically. Mainstream politics got a rude wake-up after Georgia and so far only a few people appear to have learned their lesson. Respect the absentees - an absentee vote has just as much power as a E-Day vote, and it very likely will be statistically different from what has already been counted. This is very likely going to be the high water mark for most of the progressive candidates (outside of KY which is counting even slower), the only question is how divergent the early vote is from election day, and whether the margin is close enough for anyone to be dragged under.

[andjey]

Are there any chance that winner in NY-17 isn't Jones and winner in NY-16 isn't Torres?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Are there any chance that winner in NY-17 isn't Jones and winner in NY-16 isn't Torres?

NY-16 is Engel vs Bowman - Torres is in NY-15. The NYT has called none of these districts, but Wasserman has called '15 and '17 so I feel pretty same in the assumption that Jones and Torres will win. Even if Jones and Torres did somehow lose, it would probably have to be to the people currently in second place - so DNC deputy chair Michael Blake in NY-15 and Adam Schleifer in NY-17, not Diaz or Carlucci.

The NY congressional races to watch seriously now are NY-16 where Engel might still make a comeback and NY-12, where incumbent Carolyn Maloney is favoured but could still lose.

[smoltchanov]

I'm glad the DC fossil Engel has lost. We need more fresh faces in congress to get things on wages, healthcare, climate and infrastructure done. Since this is one of the the most liberal districts, so why not having a very liberal rep here? In suburban districts, Dems should run more centrist candidates to maintain competitive. More diversity among congressional Dems in terms of personal background and ideology from "social democratic" to centrist is a healthy thing.

Agree, but i have a sincere question: which sort of Democratic candidate would you run, say, in TX-01 or TX-36? Ancestrally Democratic, but mostly very conservative...  Left-wing, because "no one will win anyway, so - why not?". Or someone different?

[smoltchanov]

These results are terrible. Just awful. Victory of Torres, Bowman and Jones at the same time is just a big nightmare for all moderates in the Democratic Party.

And I'm not unhappy because of Diaz Sr. lost

Moderates in Democratic party will meet the same fate as moderates in Republican party did. And eventually the need of strong third party (centrist) will become obvious. But that will not happen in this (up to 2030) decade. Though i hope to live long enough to see it....

Stop with your fetishizing moderates. This had little to do with ideology. Mostly this was Voting out or rejecting overly entrenched political hacks and carpetbaggers. Besides, why should moderates represent the most liberal and Progressive congressional districts in the country?

Where did i mentioned these particular districts?? I spoke about general tendencies... For me - liberals are most logical candidates in districts, which are D+7 or more, conservatives - R+7 or more, and moderates - for D+7 - R+7 districts. Roughly so...

If you want third parties support IRV! I'm sure everyone is sick of having to grit their teeth and vote for a loathsome choice just so the worst one doesn't get a plurality.

I am 101% for it)))

[andjey]

Are there any chance that winner in NY-17 isn't Jones and winner in NY-16 isn't Torres?

NY-16 is Engel vs Bowman - Torres is in NY-15. The NYT has called none of these districts, but Wasserman has called '15 and '17 so I feel pretty same in the assumption that Jones and Torres will win. Even if Jones and Torres did somehow lose, it would probably have to be to the people currently in second place - so DNC deputy chair Michael Blake in NY-15 and Adam Schleifer in NY-17, not Diaz or Carlucci.

The NY congressional races to watch seriously now are NY-16 where Engel might still make a comeback and NY-12, where incumbent Carolyn Maloney is favoured but could still lose.

Yeah, Diaz, Carlucci/Farkas haven't any chance now

[Oryxslayer]

Are there any chance that winner in NY-17 isn't Jones and winner in NY-16 isn't Torres?

NY-16 is Engel vs Bowman - Torres is in NY-15. The NYT has called none of these districts, but Wasserman has called '15 and '17 so I feel pretty same in the assumption that Jones and Torres will win. Even if Jones and Torres did somehow lose, it would probably have to be to the people currently in second place - so DNC deputy chair Michael Blake in NY-15 and Adam Schleifer in NY-17, not Diaz or Carlucci.

The NY congressional races to watch seriously now are NY-16 where Engel might still make a comeback and NY-12, where incumbent Carolyn Maloney is favoured but could still lose.

This. Don't count your chickens like unfortunately Wasserman right now - he didn't mention absentees at all last night. There is a reason why the AP hasn't called yep. I know it seems unlikely, but congresswoman Kim reminds everyone that a lead on election night, especially in areas fill of absentee voting affluent whites, is not a victory.

[Arson Plus]

Somebody called Paperboy Prince has 20% in Velazquez's district.
Nadler only has 62%
Meng has 61%.
Suzzzi has 58%

Granted that Nadler and Meng and Suzzi will do better, but wow.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Somebody called Paperboy Prince has 20% in Velazquez's district.
Nadler only has 62%
Meng has 61%.
Suzzzi has 58%

Granted that Nadler and Meng and Suzzi will do better, but wow.

They are all safe this time but it's a wake-up call. Nadler has underperformed in primaries before because of failure to gain the support of the local Orthodox community (he isn't sufficiently pro-Israel for their tastes), but that could make assembling a winning anti-Nadler coalition difficult for a Justice Democrat.

Not much more than a hunch, but I strongly suspect 2022 primary turnout will skew less moderate once a Democrat is in office as people willing to give their local moderates the benefit of the doubt on electability grounds may look less kindly on them when the Republican president is out of office and said moderates are not living up to their policy expectations.