New York 6/23 Primary Results Megathread

[Badger]

Hawatmeh +4 in my district. 98% in.

Holy $#*&. Even with mail-in I cannot see that changing much. I don't wanna do the lean D -> likely D meme because she's such a wild card who knows but that's gonna make campaigning a lot more... interesting. Funnier? Weirder? Too early to tell. Def more interesting.

Better for Delgado I'm almost certain.

[Lognog]

So, I haven't been following the races.

Is Bowman going to be a political lightning rod like Ocasio-Cortez?

Well, he said in his acceptance speech that he can't wait to, quote, go to Congress and "cause problems". So, yeah, at the least.

This is really not what Democrats need, it just creates distracting headlines and causes issues within the party. Anyways, good to see Maloney in trouble, she actually deserves to go down, unlike Engel.

I think what he means by that is calling out corruption and fighting for his constituents unlike engel

[NOVA Green]

Adam Schleifer holds narrow 7 vote lead in NY-17 (3606-3599). Most of the vote is currently coming from Rockland where Schleifer leads by 4%. Vote from Westchester is coming in very slowly but Schleifer is currently in 4th place and trails Jones by about 30% (this can't be considered a representative sample though in Westchester).

NYT has Jones ahead with more of the vote in:

Jones 4942 (37.6%)
Scheifer 3981 (30.6%)
Carlucci 2750 (20.9%)
Farkas 730 (5.5%)

Thanks, Rockland County updated just after I posted that it seems where Jones retook the lead there.

Westchester now reporting in-person early vote, where Jones leads 1916-596 over Schleifer.

In NY-16, Bowman leads Engel 3052-2417.

NY-17 DEM PRIM:

Jones appears to be increasing numbers....

Mondaire Jones
6,087   40.0%   
Adam Schleifer
4,329   28.5   
David Carlucci
2,951   19.4

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1275636703215202307?s=20

Note the amount of outstanding ballots. And...

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1275635205248888838?s=20

I still think Engel is DOA. However, I think the margin right now is still to close to safety project. I also think that Jones need more breathing space since there are going to be more absentee votes there when compared to the average seat, even if those votes are divided.

[W]

Posting some bookie odds.

AOC wins primary
99¢ YES
1¢ NO

Engel wins primary
4¢ YES
96¢ NO

NY-17D primary
96¢ Jones
3¢ Schliefer
All others 1¢

NY-16D primary margin
27¢ 16-18%
25¢ 18%+
25¢ 14-16%
11¢ 12-14%
11¢ 10-12%
All others 6¢ or below

NY-09D primary
99¢ Clarke
2¢ Bunkeddeko
All others 1¢

NY-27R primary
99¢ Jacobs
All others 1¢

[Storr]

Adam Schleifer holds narrow 7 vote lead in NY-17 (3606-3599). Most of the vote is currently coming from Rockland where Schleifer leads by 4%. Vote from Westchester is coming in very slowly but Schleifer is currently in 4th place and trails Jones by about 30% (this can't be considered a representative sample though in Westchester).

NYT has Jones ahead with more of the vote in:

Jones 4942 (37.6%)
Scheifer 3981 (30.6%)
Carlucci 2750 (20.9%)
Farkas 730 (5.5%)

Thanks, Rockland County updated just after I posted that it seems where Jones retook the lead there.

Westchester now reporting in-person early vote, where Jones leads 1916-596 over Schleifer.

In NY-16, Bowman leads Engel 3052-2417.

NY-17 DEM PRIM:

Jones appears to be increasing numbers....

Mondaire Jones
6,087   40.0%   
Adam Schleifer
4,329   28.5   
David Carlucci
2,951   19.4

Here's what the State Board of Election has (looks like just a few thousand more votes in):

Mondaire Jones       44.35 %  6,856
Adam P. Schleifer  16.11 %    2,490
David Buchwald       8.32 %   1,286
Evelyn Farkas        11.26 %   1,741
David Carlucci        7.67 %     1,186

Total Votes   15,458

[n1240]

Adam Schleifer holds narrow 7 vote lead in NY-17 (3606-3599). Most of the vote is currently coming from Rockland where Schleifer leads by 4%. Vote from Westchester is coming in very slowly but Schleifer is currently in 4th place and trails Jones by about 30% (this can't be considered a representative sample though in Westchester).

NYT has Jones ahead with more of the vote in:

Jones 4942 (37.6%)
Scheifer 3981 (30.6%)
Carlucci 2750 (20.9%)
Farkas 730 (5.5%)

Thanks, Rockland County updated just after I posted that it seems where Jones retook the lead there.

Westchester now reporting in-person early vote, where Jones leads 1916-596 over Schleifer.

In NY-16, Bowman leads Engel 3052-2417.

NY-17 DEM PRIM:

Jones appears to be increasing numbers....

Mondaire Jones
6,087   40.0%   
Adam Schleifer
4,329   28.5   
David Carlucci
2,951   19.4

The BOE has a lot more in Westchester than NYTimes now, here's what it looks like when I parse NY BOE + Rockland County results

Mondaire Jones 10765 (42.8%)
Adam Schleifer 5496 (21.9%)
David Carlucci 3182 (12.7%)

[n1240]

Adam Schleifer holds narrow 7 vote lead in NY-17 (3606-3599). Most of the vote is currently coming from Rockland where Schleifer leads by 4%. Vote from Westchester is coming in very slowly but Schleifer is currently in 4th place and trails Jones by about 30% (this can't be considered a representative sample though in Westchester).

NYT has Jones ahead with more of the vote in:

Jones 4942 (37.6%)
Scheifer 3981 (30.6%)
Carlucci 2750 (20.9%)
Farkas 730 (5.5%)

Thanks, Rockland County updated just after I posted that it seems where Jones retook the lead there.

Westchester now reporting in-person early vote, where Jones leads 1916-596 over Schleifer.

In NY-16, Bowman leads Engel 3052-2417.

NY-17 DEM PRIM:

Jones appears to be increasing numbers....

Mondaire Jones
6,087   40.0%   
Adam Schleifer
4,329   28.5   
David Carlucci
2,951   19.4

Here's what the State Board of Election has (looks like just a few thousand more votes in):

Mondaire Jones       44.35 %   6,856
Adam P. Schleifer  16.11 %   2,490
David Buchwald       8.32 %           1,286
Evelyn Farkas        11.26 %     1,741
David Carlucci        7.67 %           1,186

Total Votes   15,458

BOE has lot more from Westchester but is missing a lot from Rockland.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1275637843906506753?s=20

This is only what the BOE has in right now. Based purely on what we know I would be tempted to call it for Maloney, but I wouldn't of course because there is too much uncertainty. Also:

https://twitter.com/JAllen_NY/status/1275637933220007937?s=20

[Interlocutor]

So, I haven't been following the races.

Is Bowman going to be a political lightning rod like Ocasio-Cortez?

Well, he said in his acceptance speech that he can't wait to, quote, go to Congress and "cause problems". So, yeah, at the least.

Oh crap. Well, hopefully New York will eventually come to their senses after Trump goes. 

[W]

To think Engel will probably lose his seat due to one remark on a hot mic. Jeez is it that hard to keep it together?

[Lognog]

To think Engel will probably lose his seat due to one remark on a hot mic. Jeez is it that hard to keep it together?

Judging by the margin it was probably more than just that

[brucejoel99]

To think Engel will probably lose his seat due to one remark on a hot mic. Jeez is it that hard to keep it together?

Judging by the margin it was probably more than just that

Yeah, the hot mic incident merely gave backing to what people had been saying about him before: that he no longer fits his district or has any interest in actually showing up & representing them locally. If any congressperson reaches that stage where being a member of Congress is just a 9-5 & not something you're doing to actually make the lives of your constituents better, then it's time for them to go.

[You Don’t Mess With The Zohran]

I also think that Jones need more breathing space since there are going to be more absentee votes there when compared to the average seat, even if those votes are divided.

However there is one impact you're ignoring - absentee votes tend to be better informed than in-person votes. From my understanding Scheifer's basically just a rich carpetbagger who did well based on pumping the airwaves with ads, rather than having significant local support. That's the sort of thing that probably indicates he might struggle with absentee voters. The others look too far behind to really impact Jones's margin, so I think Jones will be hard to topple.

[Oryxslayer]

I also think that Jones need more breathing space since there are going to be more absentee votes there when compared to the average seat, even if those votes are divided.

However there is one impact you're ignoring - absentee votes tend to be better informed than in-person votes. From my understanding Scheifer's basically just a rich carpetbagger who did well based on pumping the airwaves with ads, rather than having significant local support. That's the sort of thing that probably indicates he might struggle with absentee voters. The others look too far behind to really impact Jones's margin, so I think Jones will be hard to topple.

Who knows, and thats the point I keep trying to get across - E-Day calls really don't exist right now. By the time the absentees are counted next week there will probably be at least be enough votes to double the current count at minimum (likely more), at least judging by the DDHQ totals. As long as everyone knows that there are a lot of votes still out there in all these races and in general the progressive dems are not going to do as well as those on E-Day then everything is good. The question is how much the votes favor the mainstream dems, and thats the uncertainty.

I think we can all agree that Engel won't get the votes he needs out of the early vote since educated voters were also abandoning him, and that Maloney is probably going to win given the disparity in the absentees across the three counties. However, NY17 is a unknown and one can argue for whomever in that contest given the number of ballots likely to be counted.

[W]

What I don't get is why did HRC, Schumer, Cuomo, etc all back Engel? Did they actually think that would buoy him? You don't back a horse as it's galloping off a cliff. Like whatever you think of a figure like Bernie or AOC they only endorse when the person 1) has a chance and 2) when their influence in a race seems to be noteable.

[Annihilation]

https://twitter.com/NY1/status/1275612299919835137

Not looking too confident.

[brucejoel99]

What I don't get is why did HRC, Schumer, Cuomo, etc all back Engel? Did they actually think that would buoy him? You don't back a horse as it's galloping off a cliff. Like whatever you think of a figure like Bernie or AOC they only endorse when the person 1) has a chance and 2) when their influence in a race seems to be noteable.

Probably just worried that his defeat may have had a reverberating effect for other incumbents.

Evidently, none of the endorsements counted for sh*t.

[NOVA Green]

To think Engel will probably lose his seat due to one remark on a hot mic. Jeez is it that hard to keep it together?

Judging by the margin it was probably more than just that

Yeah, the hot mic incident merely gave backing to what people had been saying about him before: that he no longer fits his district or has any interest in actually showing up & representing them locally. If any congressperson reaches that stage where being a member of Congress is just a 9-5 & not something you're doing to actually make the lives of your constituents better, then it's time for them to go.

Well guess, as a politician, I would theoretically prefer to get caught with a hot mic vs a hot pipe..... (depending upon the State, Municipality, and Community).

Just ask Marion Barry.... wait the two of us got framed on both counts....    (Sorry couldn't resist--- bad attempt at joke from someone who was around in the dayz...).

But more seriously anyone please report me for obviously poor attempts of Atlas Election Evening Stand Up Comedy Circuit, while we eagerly results we might need to savor and wrangle over the next week or so....

Hey hear the joke about the Politician who beat the crooked mob boss uptown?

Last time I heard...  Hey Engel was an honorable Man, but being so out of touch with your folks but...

Another international agreement Engel worked out was the Harkin-Engel Protocol after he and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin learned about child laborers harvesting cocoa in the Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana.

“Children were working on farms, doing manual labor, not going to school,” Engel said.

“And we did a whole thing with the companies — the sugar companies, chocolate companies — to try to see that these kids had an avenue to go to school, and that we were largely successful in achieving that. There’s always more work to do, though, but we were very proud of the work that we did.”

Wait.... what about another Engels?

Everywhere the proletariat develops in step with the bourgeoisie. In proportion, as the bourgeoisie grows in wealth, the proletariat grows in numbers. For, since the proletarians can be employed only by capital, and since capital extends only through employing labor, it follows that the growth of the proletariat proceeds at precisely the same pace as the growth of capital. Simultaneously, this process draws members of the bourgeoisie and proletarians together into the great cities where industry can be carried on most profitably, and by thus throwing great masses in one spot it gives to the proletarians a consciousness of their own strength. Moreover, the further this process advances, the more new labor-saving machines are invented, the greater is the pressure exercised by big industry on wages, which, as we have seen, sink to their minimum and therewith render the condition of the proletariat increasingly unbearable. The growing dissatisfaction of the proletariat thus joins with its rising power to prepare a proletarian social revolution.

[InheritTheWind]

https://twitter.com/NY1/status/1275612299919835137

Not looking too confident.

Good riddance.

[Roll Roons]

FWIW: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1275660645879463936

[TML]

What I don't get is why did HRC, Schumer, Cuomo, etc all back Engel? Did they actually think that would buoy him? You don't back a horse as it's galloping off a cliff. Like whatever you think of a figure like Bernie or AOC they only endorse when the person 1) has a chance and 2) when their influence in a race seems to be noteable.

These are all establishment Democrats, and they love to back establishment candidates. Bernie & AOC are anti-establishment politicians, and are thus far less likely to be endorsed by establishment figures.

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

https://twitter.com/NY1/status/1275612299919835137

Not looking too confident.

Crybaby says what?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1275663358289678336?s=20

[YE]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1275663358289678336?s=20

Any good reason not to call Bowman's race as well? Are there really that many outstanding absentees?