TX - PPP/Progress Texas (D): Trump+2%

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

Then why did Geg Abbott crush Lupe Valdez by some 7-8 Points that same Night.

Greg Abbott had a higher net approval rating than Ted Cruz, and certainly higher than Donald Trump. Greg Abbott is not on the presidential ticket, Trump is.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz won barely due to fact Greg Abbott ran against Valdez instead of White. Had White been our candidate,  Beto would of been Senator, that's why Dems won House seats in TX. This is why Trump is so weak in TX, now, which should be safe R, due to no Greg Abbott

[Senate Minority Leader Voldemort]

Can't begin to imagine the disaster zones threads will be through the next five months discussing polls that continue to show a race within the MOE for Texas.

[pbrower2a]

Texas is close enough that either a further degradation of support nationwide or a bungled response to a natural disaster involving Texas (such as a hurricane) could be enough to damn Trump to defeat.

I'll say this: if I were in Houston and facing a hurricane this fall I would find an excuse to take a fall foliage tour in the Midwest. As badly as Trump has bungled COVID-19 I would not want to get stranded in a shelter full of people who might have the Plague of 2020.

[YE]

If Biden is actually up double figures, shouldn’t he be winning here?

[tagimaucia]

If Biden is actually up double figures, shouldn’t he be winning here?

Well, if the polls are generally off by the same amount they were in 2016 and 2018 in TX, he is winning.

[Ferguson97]

If Biden is actually up double figures, shouldn’t he be winning here?

2% is essentially a tie with margin of error

[Calthrina950]

All of those races had controversial or scandal-plagued incumbents. Abbott, George P. and Hegar all still won fairly comfortably. Also the prospect of beating Ted Cruz fired up Democrats nationwide, so they poured a ton of money into Beto's campaign and allowed him to outspend him by a ton.

This is just a bunch of excuses. Texas is a tossup. Nobody gives a damn about the "scandals" of down ballot state level candidates.

A significant number of people split their tickets between row offices, so evidently they did care.

There were 400,000 Abbott-O'Rourke voters in 2018, a figure which still astonishes me, even now. Abbott is much more popular than Cruz, Cornyn, and Trump, and the ticket-splitters were clearly satisfied with his performance but disapproved of Cruz. However, I do believe that Texas is probably only Lean R at this stage, maybe even Tossup, and that it will be decided by a margin of 5% or less. O'Rourke clearly registered gains among suburbanites and urbanites that are now translating over to the presidential race.

[หมูเด้ง]

I think Joe improves in Texas if he indeed wins the popular vote. He might still slightly improve even if this turns out to be a typical BAU scenario where he loses and wins the PV and by less than Hillary did.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/josh_hammer/status/1275934045264904192

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Biden is actually up double figures, shouldn’t he be winning here?

Yes, which is why I’m not sure the point of the release of this poll, especially since the last two polls here by CNN and PPP had Biden up one or tied. This poll represents a worse number than PPPs last result

If I were betting, I’d have Texas at close to a pure tossup.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems dont have to outright win polls except for PA, WI and MI, all that matters. Turnout in OH, IA, FL, AZ and TX can help win those states for Dems. FL in 2012 was all over the place and Obama wasnt leading in FL until election day. Abbott running against Valdez instead of White solidified TX for Rs in 2018.

Abbott isnt on the ballot in 2020, that's why Trump is having difficulty winning TX. Abbott is just as popular as Bush W in TX

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Texas President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-06-19

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details