TX - PPP/Progress Texas (D): Trump+2%

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Trump should be running away with TX, but he isnt. A statistical tie just like in KS senate or MT senate, when all the Rs say Marshall and Daines, have it, is a statistical tie

[CellarDoor]

Competitive.
The question is ... How much time & money should Biden/Dems spend on the possibility of taking Texas? Fool's Gold? It's a hard decision.

I don't know that it's Fool's Gold.  Texas is close in the likely voter model used in this poll.  But what if the 350K+ new voters that Beto's team has already registered to date are the type of voters that would not be included in this likely voter model?  

It's important to remember that polls use likely voter models and outside events could render them somewhat obsolete. 

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

There are outliers here and there, but state and national polls are painting a remarkably consistent picture:

National: Biden +9-11
FL: Biden +6
PA/WI: Biden +5
AZ: Biden +4
OH/IA: Even
TX: Trump +2

A map is coming into focus. I wonder how much will change in the next four months.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are spending in TX since they have Dem incumbents that are freshmen that just got elected in 2018. This isnt 2004 anymore, TX, FL and AZ are battlegrounds

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yay!  Trump will win by 5 on ED.  Dems shouldn’t waste resources here

Tons of competitive House races. They should get more focus than the presidential race here from DEMs.

I said yay because I had wanting some state polls. A D biased poll showing Trump up in Texas is fine.  Nothing to be mad or happy about

That isn't how your post reads. You posted yay and then that Trump would win by 5 points. You mentioned nothing about wanting state polls.

Buzz said that in the other PPP thread posted today, and I quoted him in my first post on this one. I assume that is what he was responding to at first.

[President Johnson]

Texas is going to be within five or less. Looking at how this race has changed in recent months and Trump keeps acting like a complete fool, I wouldn't be shocked if the state narrowly flips. Don't think it will happen, but still more likely than Trump winning any Clinton state.

[NOVA Green]

Competitive.
The question is ... How much time & money should Biden/Dems spend on the possibility of taking Texas? Fool's Gold? It's a hard decision.

I don't know that it's Fool's Gold.  Texas is close in the likely voter model used in this poll.  But what if the 350K+ new voters that Beto's team has already registered to date are the type of voters that would not be included in this likely voter model?  

It's important to remember that polls use likely voter models and outside events could render them somewhat obsolete. 

Entirely feasible...

Working Class Latinos tend to be an overwhelmingly Democratic Voter block, but are much less likely to participate in primaries and off-year elections.

Also, much of Beto's strength in 2018 came from massive swings in more heavily Anglo Upper-Middle Class suburban places, rather than massive surges of support in heavily WWC Latino places...

Obviously Biden would have to perform of mixture of holding a significant number of Non-HRC > BETO voters, while simultaneously dramatically expanding the pool of new/irregular voters beyond 2018 numbers...

The first thread I believe had to do with BETOs support in suburban metro areas:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=309236.msg6591415#msg6591415

The second thread includes some work that I did on the 2018 CD-23 House Election, including looking at the Bexar County portion of the district (you'll need to click on on the image links to see the graphics, since stuff got archived with the graphic changes, migrations etc...   

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300604.msg6602412#msg6602412

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems picked up Congressional districts in IA and TX and by 2022 will have some in OH, that's why OH, IA are moving back Leftward and TX is a battleground

[2016]

Trump should be running away with TX, but he isnt. A statistical tie just like in KS senate or MT senate, when all the Rs say Marshall and Daines, have it, is a statistical tie

A Generic R Candidate would walk away with Texas.

Texas Democrats are incredibly lucky the last two Election Cycles. In 2018 they could run against the most unpopular Senator in the Country which Ted Cruz was and in 2020 they can run against the most unpopular President.

If they don't win Texas this year then they never will win it in 2024 or 2028.

Greg Abbott would have CRUSHED, absolutely CRUSHED Beto O'Rourke by 7-9 Points in 2018.

[2016]

Dems picked up Congressional districts in IA and TX and by 2022 will have some in OH, that's why OH, IA are moving back Leftward and TX is a battleground

Ask yourself a Question: Has this more to do with Demographic Changes or with Donald Trump. Texas is changing but it ain't changing that fast.

Democrats need to have a perfect storm in TX in 2018 to get Allred and Fletcher elected plus O'Rourke coming within 3 Points of Cruz.

Everything today in TX and elsewhere has to do with Trump and not with some leftward or rightward moves you mentioned.

[BlueSwan]

Trump should be running away with TX, but he isnt. A statistical tie just like in KS senate or MT senate, when all the Rs say Marshall and Daines, have it, is a statistical tie

A Generic R Candidate would walk away with Texas.

Texas Democrats are incredibly lucky the last two Election Cycles. In 2018 they could run against the most unpopular Senator in the Country which Ted Cruz was and in 2020 they can run against the most unpopular President.

If they don't win Texas this year then they never will win it in 2024 or 2028.

That’s ridiculous. Texas is trending Democratic and there’s no reason to believe that this trend is about to turn around, since the trend is so heavily based on simple demographic changes. But Texas was never “supposed” to be within reach for Dems already in 2020 and it still looks like a long shot. But not winning Texas in 2020 has zero bearing on what happens in 2024 (where TX should still be lean R) or 2028, which is a year where Texas ought to be competitive even in a fairly close race.

[Interlocutor]

Yay!  Trump will win by 5 on ED.  Dems shouldn’t waste resources here

For the "Texas is Fools Gold/Just Not Ready Yet & doesn't deserve a nickel in resources" crowd, this is who you're aligned with

[WD]

Dems picked up Congressional districts in IA and TX and by 2022 will have some in OH, that's why OH, IA are moving back Leftward and TX is a battleground

Ask yourself a Question: Has this more to do with Demographic Changes or with Donald Trump. Texas is changing but it ain't changing that fast.

Democrats need to have a perfect storm in TX in 2018 to get Allred and Fletcher elected plus O'Rourke coming within 3 Points of Cruz.

Everything today in TX and elsewhere has to do with Trump and not with some leftward or rightward moves you mentioned.

Saving this for when Texas votes D by double digits and has 2 D senators in 2036

[MT Treasurer]

Texas Democrats are incredibly lucky the last two Election Cycles. In 2018 they could run against the most unpopular Senator in the Country which Ted Cruz was and in 2020 they can run against the most unpopular President.

If they don't win Texas this year then they never will win it in 2024 or 2028.

Greg Abbott would have CRUSHED, absolutely CRUSHED Beto O'Rourke by 7-9 Points in 2018.

Except that he wasn’t, not even close. This lie is never going to die, huh?

[2016]

Texas Democrats are incredibly lucky the last two Election Cycles. In 2018 they could run against the most unpopular Senator in the Country which Ted Cruz was and in 2020 they can run against the most unpopular President.

If they don't win Texas this year then they never will win it in 2024 or 2028.

Greg Abbott would have CRUSHED, absolutely CRUSHED Beto O'Rourke by 7-9 Points in 2018.

Except that he wasn’t, not even close. This lie is never going to die, huh?

Then why did Geg Abbott crush Lupe Valdez by some 7-8 Points that same Night.

The close TX Senate Race wasn't about Beto or Demographics. EVERYTHING had to do with Cruz unpopularity.

[WD]

Texas Democrats are incredibly lucky the last two Election Cycles. In 2018 they could run against the most unpopular Senator in the Country which Ted Cruz was and in 2020 they can run against the most unpopular President.

If they don't win Texas this year then they never will win it in 2024 or 2028.

Greg Abbott would have CRUSHED, absolutely CRUSHED Beto O'Rourke by 7-9 Points in 2018.

Except that he wasn’t, not even close. This lie is never going to die, huh?

Then why did Geg Abbott crush Lupe Valdez by some 7-8 Points that same Night.

The close TX Senate Race wasn't about Beto or Demographics. EVERYTHING had to do with Cruz unpopularity.

LMAO Cruz is popular. Morso than Cornyn or Trump

[Interlocutor]

Yay!  Trump will win by 5 on ED.  Dems shouldn’t waste resources here

Tons of competitive House races. They should get more focus than the presidential race here from DEMs.

On both the congressional & state legislative level. If Dems care one iota about the prospects of Texas shifting left, flipping the State House on the eve of redistricting should be priority #1

[2016]

Texas Democrats are incredibly lucky the last two Election Cycles. In 2018 they could run against the most unpopular Senator in the Country which Ted Cruz was and in 2020 they can run against the most unpopular President.

If they don't win Texas this year then they never will win it in 2024 or 2028.

Greg Abbott would have CRUSHED, absolutely CRUSHED Beto O'Rourke by 7-9 Points in 2018.

Except that he wasn’t, not even close. This lie is never going to die, huh?

Then why did Geg Abbott crush Lupe Valdez by some 7-8 Points that same Night.

The close TX Senate Race wasn't about Beto or Demographics. EVERYTHING had to do with Cruz unpopularity.

LMAO Cruz is popular. Morso than Cornyn or Trump

Cruz barely had a positive view on Election Day 2018 per CNN Exit Polls:
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/senate

Favorables
Cruz 50/48 + 2
O'Rourke 52/42 + 10

Cruz was barely over water here. Trumps JA was 49/49.

If Trump has a positive JA come E-Day 2020 he's going to win TX.

[WD]

Texas Democrats are incredibly lucky the last two Election Cycles. In 2018 they could run against the most unpopular Senator in the Country which Ted Cruz was and in 2020 they can run against the most unpopular President.

If they don't win Texas this year then they never will win it in 2024 or 2028.

Greg Abbott would have CRUSHED, absolutely CRUSHED Beto O'Rourke by 7-9 Points in 2018.

Except that he wasn’t, not even close. This lie is never going to die, huh?

Then why did Geg Abbott crush Lupe Valdez by some 7-8 Points that same Night.

The close TX Senate Race wasn't about Beto or Demographics. EVERYTHING had to do with Cruz unpopularity.

LMAO Cruz is popular. Morso than Cornyn or Trump

Cruz barely had a positive view on Election Day 2018 per CNN Exit Polls:
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/senate

Favorables
Cruz 50/48 + 2
O'Rourke 52/42 + 10

Cruz was barely over water here. Trumps JA was 49/49.

If Trump has a positive JA come E-Day 2020 he's going to win TX.

Sure, but barely winning TX by a point doesn’t mean much if Biden’s getting over 340EVs

[NOVA Green]

So back to the topic of the poll....

What do y'all think about a "50% Phone and 50% text" poll of Tejas?

[MT Treasurer]

Then why did Geg Abbott crush Lupe Valdez by some 7-8 Points that same Night.

The close TX Senate Race wasn't about Beto or Demographics. EVERYTHING had to do with Cruz unpopularity.

Because he was one of the most popular governors in the entire country, the race wasn’t seriously contested by Democrats, and gubernatorial elections are generally less partisan than federal elections?

Abbott vs. Valdez was basically the best-case scenario for the TX GOP and he still barely did better than Larry Hogan in MD and actually won by less than Doug Ducey in AZ, but sure, it’s all because of Cruz. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Interlocutor]

Texas Democrats are incredibly lucky the last two Election Cycles. In 2018 they could run against the most unpopular Senator in the Country which Ted Cruz was and in 2020 they can run against the most unpopular President.

If they don't win Texas this year then they never will win it in 2024 or 2028.

Greg Abbott would have CRUSHED, absolutely CRUSHED Beto O'Rourke by 7-9 Points in 2018.

Except that he wasn’t, not even close. This lie is never going to die, huh?

Then why did Geg Abbott crush Lupe Valdez by some 7-8 Points that same Night.

The close TX Senate Race wasn't about Beto or Demographics. EVERYTHING had to do with Cruz unpopularity.

Great analysis. Now explain why the Attorney General, Lt. Gov, & Ag. Comissioner races were all within 5 points

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is for sure going to be a tough mesquite-glazed nut to crack, but Trump leading by only two is by no means good news for him here.

 I do think that Biden should invest at least a little bit here though for the sake of the down-ballot races and to force Trump to spend on defense here and take from the more important states he needs to defend.

[Roll Roons]

Texas Democrats are incredibly lucky the last two Election Cycles. In 2018 they could run against the most unpopular Senator in the Country which Ted Cruz was and in 2020 they can run against the most unpopular President.

If they don't win Texas this year then they never will win it in 2024 or 2028.

Greg Abbott would have CRUSHED, absolutely CRUSHED Beto O'Rourke by 7-9 Points in 2018.

Except that he wasn’t, not even close. This lie is never going to die, huh?

Then why did Geg Abbott crush Lupe Valdez by some 7-8 Points that same Night.

The close TX Senate Race wasn't about Beto or Demographics. EVERYTHING had to do with Cruz unpopularity.

Great analysis. Now explain why the Attorney General, Lt. Gov, & Ag. Comissioner races were all within 5 points

All of those races had controversial or scandal-plagued incumbents. Abbott, George P. and Hegar all still won fairly comfortably. Also the prospect of beating Ted Cruz fired up Democrats nationwide, so they poured a ton of money into Beto's campaign, allowing Cruz to outspend him by a ton.

[RFKFan68]

All of those races had controversial or scandal-plagued incumbents. Abbott, George P. and Hegar all still won fairly comfortably. Also the prospect of beating Ted Cruz fired up Democrats nationwide, so they poured a ton of money into Beto's campaign and allowed him to outspend him by a ton.

This is just a bunch of excuses. Texas is a tossup. Nobody gives a damn about the "scandals" of down ballot state level candidates.