Whether it be 2024 or 2028, will the next Republican Presidential Nominee be like Trump?

[Alben Barkley]

I think it depends on a lot of things.

First is whether Trump wins again at all. So if it's 2028, Trump has won twice which is a plus point for the Trumpist wing of the party. HOWEVER, it was probably close again and if during his second term he tanks as hard as Dubya did, that would hurt their chances. So could go either way.

If it's 2024, Trump has lost. Now it depends largely on the magnitude of that loss. If Biden does indeed blow him out by double digits with 400+ EVs, probably we'll start to see the GOP back away from Trump. If it's close, with Biden edging out MI/WI/PA for a narrow EC win, Trump is likely gonna call it rigged, likely a lot of his fans will believe this, and he may even run again himself.

The other question is whether the will of the party's base will align with the will of the party elites. If Trump absolutely collapses, either because he gets thumped this year or because his popularity goes south in a second term, it's not inconceivable that you'll start seeing Republicans distance themselves from him and pretend they never really supported him. As they do now with W, Romney, and McCain.  But even that's not guaranteed because some of them have really drunk the Kool-Aid and tied themselves so strongly to this cult. It's possible that even if the GOP establishment sees nominating another Trump as a recipe for disaster, the base will try to do it anyway.

[Alben Barkley]

First is whether Trump wins again at all. So if it's 2028, Trump has won twice which is a plus point for the Trumpist wing of the party. HOWEVER, it was probably close again and if during his second term he tanks as hard as Dubya did, that would hurt their chances. So could go either way.

If it's 2024, Trump has lost.

I don't understand.  There will be a presidential election in 2024 regardless.  So, for example, even if Trump wins reelection this year, the party still has to pick a nominee in 2024.

Oh s--t, I messed up. For some reason I seemed to think for a moment that Trump would run again in 2024 even if he won this year. Dumb.

As it is, everything else I said still applies I think: The party will be more likely to nominate a Trump-like figure in 2024 if he wins or if it's a close loss, in the latter case it could even potentially be Trump himself again. If he does get nominated again and loses again, I think by 2028 the party will be going in a different direction. If he does run and wins again in 2024 after losing this year, again see what I said about how his second term plays out. That also applies to 2024 should he win this year: If he totally tanks like W, might not be as likely that someone like him is nominated again.

And if it's an absolute landslide for Biden or any Democrat against him or someone like him in any year, the GOP will be more likely to want to distance themselves from Truimpism. Whether the voters will or not is another story.