Whether it be 2024 or 2028, will the next Republican Presidential Nominee be like Trump?

[Heebie Jeebie]

Trump is a symptom of the party's pathologies, not its source. The next Republican nominee will be very much like Trump because that's what Republicans want.

[Heebie Jeebie]

No, s/he'll be a completely different beast to reckon with, the depths of which are as alien and unfathomable as Trump was back in 2008 or 2012.

How was Trump unfathomable in 2012?  I seem to recall Romney crawling to Trump on his belly to get Trump's endorsement.  Trump was well established as a leader in the Republican party.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Why Tom Cotton?  I've seen his name floated frequently as the next in line, but why?  Arkansas isn't exactly a big, wealthy state to use as a springboard.  Cotton is a Conservative hardliner, sure, but so are a dozen other Senators and Governors.  Why Cotton and not Mike Lee or Rand Paul or Nikki Haley?

[Heebie Jeebie]

Yes, if for no other reason than that the GOP base will not tolerate another Reaganite clone, whatever their moneyed elite may desire.  So a younger, smarter, more politically adroit version of Trump will do nicely:

Hawley is younger, but I'm not convinced he's smarter or more politically adroit.

[Heebie Jeebie]

2024 will either be Pence or a loyalist to Trump like Tom Cotton. Republicans lose this election - Biden is either re-elected or his VP is elected.

2028 will be more of a Mitt Romney type - a governor from the northeast who is too moderate for the remaining Trumpists in the party, but too right wing for a lot of independents. Biden's VP is elected or re-elected - the Republicans lose a third consecutive election.

2032 will be a moderate who wins as Trump's influence on the party finally wanes.

Something like this. And perhaps the Dems go all out with AOC and Omar by 2032 and it produces something like 1992 where new trends begin.

Nah, our current party system won't exhaust itself until 2040.  Then we might see a 1992-style realignment, but I doubt it happens before.