Whether it be 2024 or 2028, will the next Republican Presidential Nominee be like Trump?

[FlyoverCoast]

Will the Republican Party veer back to the Romney/McCain/Ryan type or maybe double down with a Trump 2.0? (Or will trump run again in 2024 if he loses this year??)

[Alben Barkley]

I think it depends on a lot of things.

First is whether Trump wins again at all. So if it's 2028, Trump has won twice which is a plus point for the Trumpist wing of the party. HOWEVER, it was probably close again and if during his second term he tanks as hard as Dubya did, that would hurt their chances. So could go either way.

If it's 2024, Trump has lost. Now it depends largely on the magnitude of that loss. If Biden does indeed blow him out by double digits with 400+ EVs, probably we'll start to see the GOP back away from Trump. If it's close, with Biden edging out MI/WI/PA for a narrow EC win, Trump is likely gonna call it rigged, likely a lot of his fans will believe this, and he may even run again himself.

The other question is whether the will of the party's base will align with the will of the party elites. If Trump absolutely collapses, either because he gets thumped this year or because his popularity goes south in a second term, it's not inconceivable that you'll start seeing Republicans distance themselves from him and pretend they never really supported him. As they do now with W, Romney, and McCain.  But even that's not guaranteed because some of them have really drunk the Kool-Aid and tied themselves so strongly to this cult. It's possible that even if the GOP establishment sees nominating another Trump as a recipe for disaster, the base will try to do it anyway.

[Mr. Morden]

First is whether Trump wins again at all. So if it's 2028, Trump has won twice which is a plus point for the Trumpist wing of the party. HOWEVER, it was probably close again and if during his second term he tanks as hard as Dubya did, that would hurt their chances. So could go either way.

If it's 2024, Trump has lost.

I don't understand.  There will be a presidential election in 2024 regardless.  So, for example, even if Trump wins reelection this year, the party still has to pick a nominee in 2024.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

My working assumption is that, if he loses in November, either Trump himself will run in 2024 or else one of his kids will.

[Alben Barkley]

First is whether Trump wins again at all. So if it's 2028, Trump has won twice which is a plus point for the Trumpist wing of the party. HOWEVER, it was probably close again and if during his second term he tanks as hard as Dubya did, that would hurt their chances. So could go either way.

If it's 2024, Trump has lost.

I don't understand.  There will be a presidential election in 2024 regardless.  So, for example, even if Trump wins reelection this year, the party still has to pick a nominee in 2024.

Oh s--t, I messed up. For some reason I seemed to think for a moment that Trump would run again in 2024 even if he won this year. Dumb.

As it is, everything else I said still applies I think: The party will be more likely to nominate a Trump-like figure in 2024 if he wins or if it's a close loss, in the latter case it could even potentially be Trump himself again. If he does get nominated again and loses again, I think by 2028 the party will be going in a different direction. If he does run and wins again in 2024 after losing this year, again see what I said about how his second term plays out. That also applies to 2024 should he win this year: If he totally tanks like W, might not be as likely that someone like him is nominated again.

And if it's an absolute landslide for Biden or any Democrat against him or someone like him in any year, the GOP will be more likely to want to distance themselves from Truimpism. Whether the voters will or not is another story.

[Buzz]

It will be Tom Cotton so take that how you want to

[Heebie Jeebie]

Trump is a symptom of the party's pathologies, not its source. The next Republican nominee will be very much like Trump because that's what Republicans want.

[Mr. Smith]

No, s/he'll be a completely different beast to reckon with, the depths of which are as alien and unfathomable as Trump was back in 2008 or 2012.

[Heebie Jeebie]

No, s/he'll be a completely different beast to reckon with, the depths of which are as alien and unfathomable as Trump was back in 2008 or 2012.

How was Trump unfathomable in 2012?  I seem to recall Romney crawling to Trump on his belly to get Trump's endorsement.  Trump was well established as a leader in the Republican party.

[McGarnagle]

2024 will either be Pence or a loyalist to Trump like Tom Cotton. Republicans lose this election - Biden is either re-elected or his VP is elected.

2028 will be more of a Mitt Romney type - a governor from the northeast who is too moderate for the remaining Trumpists in the party, but too right wing for a lot of independents. Biden's VP is elected or re-elected - the Republicans lose a third consecutive election.

2032 will be a moderate who wins as Trump's influence on the party finally wanes.

[Ferguson97]

2024's nominee will either by Trump himself or his dumbass son.

[FlyoverCoast]

It will be Tom Cotton so take that how you want to

That’s exactly who I was thinking of too. Maybe a Cotton/Gaetz or Cotton/Stefniak ticket

[Heebie Jeebie]

Why Tom Cotton?  I've seen his name floated frequently as the next in line, but why?  Arkansas isn't exactly a big, wealthy state to use as a springboard.  Cotton is a Conservative hardliner, sure, but so are a dozen other Senators and Governors.  Why Cotton and not Mike Lee or Rand Paul or Nikki Haley?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Trump wins in 2020, GOP will probably lose 2024 due to party fatigue so they will nominate some sacrificial lamb. If Trump loses, they would nominate someone much younger to contrast with Biden's age.

[Frodo]

Yes, if for no other reason than that the GOP base will not tolerate another Reaganite clone, whatever their moneyed elite may desire.  So a younger, smarter, more politically adroit version of Trump will do nicely:

[Heebie Jeebie]

Yes, if for no other reason than that the GOP base will not tolerate another Reaganite clone, whatever their moneyed elite may desire.  So a younger, smarter, more politically adroit version of Trump will do nicely:

Hawley is younger, but I'm not convinced he's smarter or more politically adroit.

[Frodo]

Yes, if for no other reason than that the GOP base will not tolerate another Reaganite clone, whatever their moneyed elite may desire.  So a younger, smarter, more politically adroit version of Trump will do nicely:

Hawley is younger, but I'm not convinced he's smarter or more politically adroit.

He is when compared to Trump.  Admittedly it is a bar that is laid flat on the ground, but there you have it.  And I think that will be enough for Republicans.   

[NYSforKennedy2024]

If Trump wins - Tom Cotton. A victory over Biden will show that the Trump populist movement still has gas in the tank nationally.

If Biden wins - Tim Scott. He's an almost-perfect candidate to serve as a leader for the GOP's transition away from Trump.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

If Trump wins - Tom Cotton. A victory over Biden will show that the Trump populist movement still has gas in the tank nationally.

If Biden wins - Tim Scott. He's an almost-perfect candidate to serve as a leader for the GOP's transition away from Trump.

Tim Scott will NOT win the GOP nomination lol.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Why Tom Cotton?  I've seen his name floated frequently as the next in line, but why?  Arkansas isn't exactly a big, wealthy state to use as a springboard.  Cotton is a Conservative hardliner, sure, but so are a dozen other Senators and Governors.  Why Cotton and not Mike Lee or Rand Paul or Nikki Haley?

Also, have people actually seen Tom Cotton speak? He's less charismatic than Jeb Bush, and Trump, Don Jr., or Kanye would utterly humiliate him in a drawn-out campaign.

[2016]

Trust me on this!
The next Republican Presidential Nominee no matter if Trump loses or wins in 2020 will be most likely be Governor or a former Governor and not these bonaheaded, knuckleheaded Legislative craps like Cotton and Hawley.

That gives the GOP a lot of Options:
If it's a Woman that could range from Kim Reynolds to Nikki Haley to Kristi Noem.
If it's a Man that could range from Ron DeSantis to Rick Scott to Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan. Even someone like Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt or Doug Burgum could be in the mix.

[CellarDoor]

I think it really depends on weather Trump is still alive or not.  If he is, I'm sure the Republican primary will boil down to who can best suck up to Trump and his base.  You better believe Trump is going to be sharing his thoughts on the matter nonstop. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who knows, the Trump administration gave a massive give away of tax cuts to the rich and due to Covid 19 it exacerbated income inequality to the working poor whom are 15 million African Americans and 15 million Latinos and 15 million whites 45 million people whom are already impoverished.

Its gonna take yrs before another huge tax cut is gonna get enacted again, it wasnt fair

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don't see why Dems should be particularly nervous about Cotton and Hawley, They're both wet sponges, and Cotton is a hardcore neocon Bush conservative, not a populist.

[Devils30]

2024 will either be Pence or a loyalist to Trump like Tom Cotton. Republicans lose this election - Biden is either re-elected or his VP is elected.

2028 will be more of a Mitt Romney type - a governor from the northeast who is too moderate for the remaining Trumpists in the party, but too right wing for a lot of independents. Biden's VP is elected or re-elected - the Republicans lose a third consecutive election.

2032 will be a moderate who wins as Trump's influence on the party finally wanes.

Something like this. And perhaps the Dems go all out with AOC and Omar by 2032 and it produces something like 1992 where new trends begin.