Whether it be 2024 or 2028, will the next Republican Presidential Nominee be like Trump?

[Xing]

If Trump wins, Republicans will spend 2024 trying to out-Trump each other. If he loses, they’ll support all his policies but try to be “nicer” about it.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Define "like Trump". The next nominee could well be clearly distinct from Trump and at the same time be the opposite of a return to Bush-style politics.
Would people here consider McCain "like Bush"? Would they have considered him "like Bush" in 2008?

P.S. I find the idea of calling people moderate or conservative based on how much they embrace Trump slightly bonkers.

[Hope For A New Era]

Kristi Noem

yikes

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Biden wins in November:

An all-out war for the soul of the Republican Party, with Trump (or a Trump-anointed successor) trying to rally the Trump wing, and several other candidates representing each one of the old divisions. There will be someone from the Ted Cruz wing, someone from the Rand Paul wing, and someone from the Mitt Romney wing. I have no idea who would win, but I'd stock up on popcorn.

If Trump wins:

Trump will hand-pick a successor, and that person will cake-walk to the nomination.

[Camaro33]

I'm expecting a younger more "Millennial-like" person in the mold of Trump, but a bit more of a politician and less of a show artist.

Similar to Trump on: illegal immigration, populism, calling out mainstream news bias, pro-business capitalist, deregulation, anti-China and economic protection, against free college

Dissimilar to Trump: more pro-science and climate change and environment, more legitimately religious, experienced gun owner

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R are in office now, and the slue of R retirements in the House and the Repeal of Obamacare and a Recession and impeachment has made in difficult for the Rs to stay in office just like the Ds passed the tax penalty on Obamacare that cost , them the House in 2010 and Senate in 2014. The R retirements rest on Leader McCarthy whom was supposed to be Speaker, but governing as a minority leader is hard do when R have dominated the House for 16/20 years

The Rs have to be dominant in the House in order to be a dominant party like they were during the Gingrich and Boehner years and they arent, making Trump's reelection and Leader McConnell likely to lose in 2020 trifecta

[Roblox]

First is whether Trump wins again at all. So if it's 2028, Trump has won twice which is a plus point for the Trumpist wing of the party. HOWEVER, it was probably close again and if during his second term he tanks as hard as Dubya did, that would hurt their chances. So could go either way.

If it's 2024, Trump has lost.

I don't understand.  There will be a presidential election in 2024 regardless.  So, for example, even if Trump wins reelection this year, the party still has to pick a nominee in 2024.

Oh s--t, I messed up. For some reason I seemed to think for a moment that Trump would run again in 2024 even if he won this year. Dumb.

As it is, everything else I said still applies I think: The party will be more likely to nominate a Trump-like figure in 2024 if he wins or if it's a close loss, in the latter case it could even potentially be Trump himself again. If he does get nominated again and loses again, I think by 2028 the party will be going in a different direction. If he does run and wins again in 2024 after losing this year, again see what I said about how his second term plays out. That also applies to 2024 should he win this year: If he totally tanks like W, might not be as likely that someone like him is nominated again.

And if it's an absolute landslide for Biden or any Democrat against him or someone like him in any year, the GOP will be more likely to want to distance themselves from Truimpism. Whether the voters will or not is another story.

And what if it's a, say, 7-8 point Biden PV win and something like 330-350 EV's?

[Chips]

Good chance.

[paxamericana]

Trump's changed the Republican Party. He has very high popularity within his party, a lot of people within the party are embracing his positions. Every single presidential nominee for the next couple of years will try to be the next Trump (unless he loses re-election by a landslide)

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I agree with those predicting that it will be someone pretty similar to Trump in policy/rhetoric but just in a younger, more polished package. DeSantis, Hawley, etc.

I think Cotton could be somewhat successful in a GOP primary, but I don't know why anyone thinks he would be a particularly compelling general election candidate.

[Heebie Jeebie]

2024 will either be Pence or a loyalist to Trump like Tom Cotton. Republicans lose this election - Biden is either re-elected or his VP is elected.

2028 will be more of a Mitt Romney type - a governor from the northeast who is too moderate for the remaining Trumpists in the party, but too right wing for a lot of independents. Biden's VP is elected or re-elected - the Republicans lose a third consecutive election.

2032 will be a moderate who wins as Trump's influence on the party finally wanes.

Something like this. And perhaps the Dems go all out with AOC and Omar by 2032 and it produces something like 1992 where new trends begin.

Nah, our current party system won't exhaust itself until 2040.  Then we might see a 1992-style realignment, but I doubt it happens before.

[Sharpshooter]

I agree with those predicting that it will be someone pretty similar to Trump in policy/rhetoric but just in a younger, more polished package. DeSantis, Hawley, etc.

I think Cotton could be somewhat successful in a GOP primary, but I don't know why anyone thinks he would be a particularly compelling general election candidate.

I think you're overestimating how much the GOP electorate overly think on policy, ultimately they want to back someone who sounds equally hateful and angry as they do.  If Tom "Wuhan Virus" Cotton engages in subtle racism bashing the Chinese tossing out red meat like he has been doing, threatening to shoot liberal protesters, that will be good enough for some of the GOP electorate regardless of what wars he wants to start.

[ultraviolet]

Trust me on this!
The next Republican Presidential Nominee no matter if Trump loses or wins in 2020 will be most likely be Governor or a former Governor and not these bonaheaded, knuckleheaded Legislative craps like Cotton and Hawley.

That gives the GOP a lot of Options:
If it's a Woman that could range from Kim Reynolds to Nikki Haley to Kristi Noem.
If it's a Man that could range from Ron DeSantis to Rick Scott to Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan. Even someone like Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt or Doug Burgum could be in the mix.

Rs will never nominate Baker, he’s not even a Republican really

[RINO Tom]

Trust me on this!
The next Republican Presidential Nominee no matter if Trump loses or wins in 2020 will be most likely be Governor or a former Governor and not these bonaheaded, knuckleheaded Legislative craps like Cotton and Hawley.

That gives the GOP a lot of Options:
If it's a Woman that could range from Kim Reynolds to Nikki Haley to Kristi Noem.
If it's a Man that could range from Ron DeSantis to Rick Scott to Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan. Even someone like Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt or Doug Burgum could be in the mix.

Rs will never nominate Baker, he’s not even a Republican really

How many users here are, like, seniors in high school?  Lol.  You CHOOSE to join a party; it's not a designation given to you based on your views.  If you choose to be a Republican, you are one.  Period.  Regardless of your views.

However, yes, Baker is likely too moderate to win the nomination.  My money would be on Haley.

[MATTROSE94]

It will be Tom Cotton so take that how you want to

That’s exactly who I was thinking of too. Maybe a Cotton/Gaetz or Cotton/Stefniak ticket

I would say that a Tom Cotton/Cindy Hyde-Smith or Marsha Blackburn ticket is likely in 2024, a Greg Abbott/Donald Trump Jr. ticket in 2028, and a Ron DeSantis/Elise Stefniak ticket in 2032 and 2036.

[GeorgeBFree]

I agree with this sentiment. It will be a younger and more politically competent version of Trump. Depending on how tense polarization is in 2024, he might be more authoritarian too.

I'm expecting a younger more "Millennial-like" person in the mold of Trump, but a bit more of a politician and less of a show artist.

Similar to Trump on: illegal immigration, populism, calling out mainstream news bias, pro-business capitalist, deregulation, anti-China and economic protection, against free college

Dissimilar to Trump: more pro-science and climate change and environment, more legitimately religious, experienced gun owner