PA-01 (Victoria Research): Biden +13

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1275173264910954498

A poll from Finello campaign last week via PPP had Biden +16 here, and Fitzpatrick +2.

This was done for House Majority PAC, so it's sort of an internal.

Either way, both polls have Biden at mid-teens in this district while Clinton only won by 2 in 2016.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

June 7-14, 2020
401 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Biden 53%
Trump 40%
Other/neither 5%
Undecided 7%

[wbrocks67]

If Biden is up 13-16% in this district, he's likely around the +8 that Fox News found statewide back in April.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Excellent news for Joe!

On the House front, Fitzpatrick is toast. Finello does not have Wallace's liabilities.

[LimoLiberal]

Bucks Blowing Blue.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Nuclear elmo time?

[ProudModerate2]

Excellent.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't believe in Fitzmagik.

[Epaminondas]

In 2016, Fitzpatrick outran Trump by 11 points, so this is just the kind of numbers that would ensure PA-1 flips.


Meanwhile, John Katko outran Trump by 21 points in 2016. NY-24 is probably safe GOP 2020 unless Biden starts posting banner numbers.

[Roll Roons]

In 2016, Fitzpatrick outran Trump by 11 points, so this is just the kind of numbers that would ensure PA-1 flips.


Meanwhile, John Katko outran Trump by 21 points in 2016. NY-24 is probably safe GOP 2020 unless Biden starts posting banner numbers.

But in 2018, he outran Wagner by 21 and Barletta by 19. Biden will definitely not win the district by Wolf/Casey margins.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

In 2016, Fitzpatrick outran Trump by 11 points, so this is just the kind of numbers that would ensure PA-1 flips.


Meanwhile, John Katko outran Trump by 21 points in 2016. NY-24 is probably safe GOP 2020 unless Biden starts posting banner numbers.

But in 2018, he outran Wagner by 21 and Barletta by 19. Biden will definitely not win the district by Wolf/Casey margins.

I can see him win it by close to Casey’s 15% win. He obviously won’t do as well as Casey in the rural parts of the state like PA-16, PA-08, and PA-14 but I can easily see him come close to the suburban margins

[wbrocks67]

In 2016, Fitzpatrick outran Trump by 11 points, so this is just the kind of numbers that would ensure PA-1 flips.


Meanwhile, John Katko outran Trump by 21 points in 2016. NY-24 is probably safe GOP 2020 unless Biden starts posting banner numbers.

But in 2018, he outran Wagner by 21 and Barletta by 19. Biden will definitely not win the district by Wolf/Casey margins.

I mean, why no though? Casey won by 15, and we have now two polls Biden up 13 and 16. Bucks County has lurched leftward since 2016. Just look at 2019's local elections.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

And PA was leaning R when it was 3.5 percent unemployment

[For Raza livin in La La/Like Gaza onto the dawn of Intifada]

NUT