Duval County - FL Poll: Biden +8

[Wiz in Wis]

http://www.rabaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/RABA-DUVAL-TOPLINES.pdf

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1275104623028822017

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This trend of county only polls is annoying. You can’t tell what a statewide margin will be from just 1 county (unless it’s Maricopa)

[Existing in the context]

Make sense. A lot of people had this as one of the most likely counties to flip.

[MT Treasurer]

I expect Duval to trend Democratic and it’s essentially a guaranteed flip, but Biden isn’t losing FL if he’s winning Duval by 8.

[Tender Branson]

Obama lost the County both times while winning FL.

Sen. Nelson won it by 1.5 and Gillium by 4.5, despite losing by 0.5 in FL.

So, this is good news for Biden.

[Illiniwek]

DUVAL!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This trend of county only polls is annoying. You can’t tell what a statewide margin will be from just 1 county (unless it’s Maricopa)

If a Dem wins Clark County by 10 or more, they win.

This is a must-win for Biden if he were to win the state anyways. He probably needs something like a 5 point win to offset further losses in the retiree areas

[MT Treasurer]

This trend of county only polls is annoying. You can’t tell what a statewide margin will be from just 1 county (unless it’s Maricopa)

If a Dem wins Clark County by 10 or more, they win.

Yellowstone + Lake MT are also good examples.

[Bidenworth2020]

67% college educated sample? Lol

[2016]

This trend of county only polls is annoying. You can’t tell what a statewide margin will be from just 1 county (unless it’s Maricopa)

You are wrong! If Biden wins Duval County by 8 Points on Election Night 2020 Trump is going to lose Florida by half a million votes!

[Roblox]

Aye this is my county lol.

[RFKFan68]

If Gillum can win by 5 in a midterm, Biden will blow the roof off here. I think Biden +8 or +9 will be the result in November.

[The Mikado]

If Duval's result is even close to this, Trump can't win FL.

Note that first "if," though.

[หมูเด้ง]

For COVID, I have moved back to Jacksonville to work remotely.  Republicans have done well here in the past because Jacksonville was simply was mostly incorporated, maxed out, rural areas (half acre lots with 1500 square foot houses in pine forests, palmetto shrubs, and cyprus swamps rather the suburbs or urban areas). Over the last few years, a lot of more developed suburbs have started to sprout up bringing in people from everywhere. It's not just retirees and government workers trying to defend their piece of the pie from the poor or freelance people and motel owners trying to get cheap help anymore.

[Pollster]

67% in this poll have a college degree...

[UWS]

I guess it will get tighter thanks to the 2020 Republican National Convention that will be held in Jacksonville.

[หมูเด้ง]

I guess it will get tighter thanks to the 2020 Republican National Convention that will be held in Jacksonville.

58% don't want the convention there.

[The Mikado]

I think this goes for Milwaukee and the DNC as well: does anyone want the conventions in their city right now?

[Cyrusman]

This poll had 6% more democrats than republicans.

Also 67% of the people had college degrees who were involved in this poll

Not really a Friendly poll for Trump

The fact that it’s D+8 when it had 6% more democrats in the poll isn’t really bad for Trump

[ProudModerate2]

If accurate, this is huge.
trump is having to play defense everywhere across the country.
Go Joe!

[GeorgiaModerate]

This poll had 6% more democrats than republicans.

Also 67% of the people had college degrees who were involved in this poll

Not really a Friendly poll for Trump

The fact that it’s D+8 when it had 6% more democrats in the poll isn’t really bad for Trump

Please see my post here (it's too long to quote) on the fallacy of trying to "unskew" or adjust polls based on reported party ID.

[Cyrusman]

This poll had 6% more democrats than republicans.

Also 67% of the people had college degrees who were involved in this poll

Not really a Friendly poll for Trump

The fact that it’s D+8 when it had 6% more democrats in the poll isn’t really bad for Trump

Please see my post here (it's too long to quote) on the fallacy of trying to "unskew" or adjust polls based on reported party ID.

Party ID is one thing but 67% of these people are college graduates
That is not friendly for trump regardless of party

[krb08]

This trend of county only polls is annoying. You can’t tell what a statewide margin will be from just 1 county (unless it’s Maricopa)

If a Dem wins Clark County by 10 or more, they win.

This is a must-win for Biden if he were to win the state anyways. He probably needs something like a 5 point win to offset further losses in the retiree areas

I agree with the Duval margin, but won't Biden improve on Clinton's performance with elderly voters? I think retirees will help Biden win Florida rather than hurt him.

SW Florida is a key region for Biden's success statewide. Based on increased Dem primary turnout from 2016 to 2020, and the sizable elderly population of the region, I think SW FL could trend hard to him. Places like Sarasota County should be where the Biden campaign tries to narrow Trump's margins.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

FL is going D

[pbrower2a]

Duval County (almost entirely Jacksonville) is one of the most conservative urban counties in America. It is usually about R+2 or so. It barely went for Obama.