Alabama (D Internal) Tuberville +3

[Xing]

I mean, I don’t think Jones will lose by 20+, but if he’s only overperfoming Biden by 11, he absolutely burnt toast.

[Xing]

I mean, I don’t think Jones will lose by 20+, but if he’s only overperfoming Biden by 11, he absolutely burnt toast.

But still it won’t be a easy win for Tuberville. Clinton got 34% in 2016, so if Jones is over preforming by 11 he would get about 45%, which Translates to a 9-10 point loss, which given that its AL in a presidential year, isn’t that bad. I expect Tuberville to win 54-45 or 55-44, however.

I meant 11 points in terms of margin, not raw vote percentage, since this same poll finds Biden down just 14. I think Biden loses Alabama by around 25, so an 11-point overperformance of that wouldn’t even be close to winning.