ME (NRSC Internal): Collins +8
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  ME (NRSC Internal): Collins +8
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Author Topic: ME (NRSC Internal): Collins +8  (Read 2666 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #25 on: July 03, 2020, 06:28:03 PM »

Why people are putting so much emphasis in an *internal* that was written up by a biased source is beyond me.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #26 on: July 03, 2020, 07:45:24 PM »

I'd still say Gideon probably wins, but this is definitely a more likely D Pres/R Senate split then GA/TX
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #27 on: July 03, 2020, 10:36:39 PM »

I'd still say Gideon probably wins, but this is definitely a more likely D Pres/R Senate split then GA/TX

Collins is gonna win
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #28 on: July 04, 2020, 09:51:40 AM »

Why are people freaking out over a GOP internal poll that has a longtime incumbent way under 50%? It isn't really that great for Collins. Pure tossup/tilt D.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #29 on: July 04, 2020, 12:11:29 PM »

Why are people freaking out over a GOP internal poll that has a longtime incumbent way under 50%? It isn't really that great for Collins. Pure tossup/tilt D.

MTE. The last poll that we got had Gideon up. And IIRC, that was not a D or R internal. And back when the environment wasn't as treacherous for Rs as it is now.

But at the same time, why no reputable pollsters are polling this race boggles my mind.
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VAR
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« Reply #30 on: July 04, 2020, 12:35:33 PM »

Why are people freaking out over a GOP internal poll that has a longtime incumbent way under 50%? It isn't really that great for Collins. Pure tossup/tilt D.

MTE. The last poll that we got had Gideon up. And IIRC, that was not a D or R internal. And back when the environment wasn't as treacherous for Rs as it is now.

But at the same time, why no reputable pollsters are polling this race boggles my mind.

It WAS a D internal.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #31 on: July 04, 2020, 12:45:23 PM »

Why are people freaking out over a GOP internal poll that has a longtime incumbent way under 50%? It isn't really that great for Collins. Pure tossup/tilt D.

MTE. The last poll that we got had Gideon up. And IIRC, that was not a D or R internal. And back when the environment wasn't as treacherous for Rs as it is now.

But at the same time, why no reputable pollsters are polling this race boggles my mind.

It WAS a D internal.

We've had two polls in February and March - Gideon up in both of them. Just b/c it was PPP doesn't make it a "D internal". It may have been commissioned by Ds, but that doesn't make it an internal.
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VAR
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« Reply #32 on: July 04, 2020, 12:51:05 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2020, 12:54:45 PM by VARepublican »

Why are people freaking out over a GOP internal poll that has a longtime incumbent way under 50%? It isn't really that great for Collins. Pure tossup/tilt D.

MTE. The last poll that we got had Gideon up. And IIRC, that was not a D or R internal. And back when the environment wasn't as treacherous for Rs as it is now.

But at the same time, why no reputable pollsters are polling this race boggles my mind.

It WAS a D internal.

We've had two polls in February and March - Gideon up in both of them. Just b/c it was PPP doesn't make it a "D internal". It may have been commissioned by Ds, but that doesn't make it an internal.

I was talking about the Victory Geek one.

And this is hilarious https://www.susancollins.com/fake_poll_alert
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #33 on: July 04, 2020, 12:57:19 PM »

Why are people freaking out over a GOP internal poll that has a longtime incumbent way under 50%? It isn't really that great for Collins. Pure tossup/tilt D.

MTE. The last poll that we got had Gideon up. And IIRC, that was not a D or R internal. And back when the environment wasn't as treacherous for Rs as it is now.

But at the same time, why no reputable pollsters are polling this race boggles my mind.

It WAS a D internal.

We've had two polls in February and March - Gideon up in both of them. Just b/c it was PPP doesn't make it a "D internal". It may have been commissioned by Ds, but that doesn't make it an internal.

I was talking about the Victory Geek one.

And this is hilarious https://www.susancollins.com/fake_poll_alert


they must be "very concerned" then that the PPP poll actually showed a bigger margin for Gideon that the supposedly fake Victory Geek one did then
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #34 on: July 04, 2020, 01:22:11 PM »

Why are people freaking out over a GOP internal poll that has a longtime incumbent way under 50%? It isn't really that great for Collins. Pure tossup/tilt D.

MTE. The last poll that we got had Gideon up. And IIRC, that was not a D or R internal. And back when the environment wasn't as treacherous for Rs as it is now.

But at the same time, why no reputable pollsters are polling this race boggles my mind.

It WAS a D internal.

We've had two polls in February and March - Gideon up in both of them. Just b/c it was PPP doesn't make it a "D internal". It may have been commissioned by Ds, but that doesn't make it an internal.

I was talking about the Victory Geek one.

And this is hilarious https://www.susancollins.com/fake_poll_alert


they must be "very concerned" then that the PPP poll actually showed a bigger margin for Gideon that the supposedly fake Victory Geek one did then

The PPP poll, conducted in early March, showed Gideon leading by 4 points, so I don’t know what you’re talking about.

It does seem to be fake though. Most of the things on that page are true. And the fact that the poll showed Gideon leading by 9 points while her primary opponent Betsy Sweet led by a single point makes it very suspicious. Why such a huge difference? The crosstabs are suspicious as well. It has Gideon doing better in ME-02 than ME-01.

If the Collins campaign is right, what Gideon did was disgraceful.

Anyway, I’m not saying this race is tilt Collins. Not yet. It’s pure tossup along with MT and NC. But the Republicans have been attacking Gideon since the last PPP poll, and things may have changed since then.

And I doubt people who abandon Trump would abandon Collins as well.
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S019
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« Reply #35 on: July 04, 2020, 01:43:16 PM »

Why are people freaking out over a GOP internal poll that has a longtime incumbent way under 50%? It isn't really that great for Collins. Pure tossup/tilt D.

MTE. The last poll that we got had Gideon up. And IIRC, that was not a D or R internal. And back when the environment wasn't as treacherous for Rs as it is now.

But at the same time, why no reputable pollsters are polling this race boggles my mind.

It WAS a D internal.

We've had two polls in February and March - Gideon up in both of them. Just b/c it was PPP doesn't make it a "D internal". It may have been commissioned by Ds, but that doesn't make it an internal.

I was talking about the Victory Geek one.

And this is hilarious https://www.susancollins.com/fake_poll_alert


they must be "very concerned" then that the PPP poll actually showed a bigger margin for Gideon that the supposedly fake Victory Geek one did then

The PPP poll, conducted in early March, showed Gideon leading by 4 points, so I don’t know what you’re talking about.

It does seem to be fake though. Most of the things on that page are true. And the fact that the poll showed Gideon leading by 9 points while her primary opponent Betsy Sweet led by a single point makes it very suspicious. Why such a huge difference? The crosstabs are suspicious as well. It has Gideon doing better in ME-02 than ME-01.

If the Collins campaign is right, what Gideon did was disgraceful.

Anyway, I’m not saying this race is tilt Collins. Not yet. It’s pure tossup along with MT and NC. But the Republicans have been attacking Gideon since the last PPP poll, and things may have changed since then.

And I doubt people who abandon Trump would abandon Collins as well.


If anything, Collins is the R who can most easily abandon Trump, if the national environment goes south, given that she has a strong pre-Trump brand. But she seriously needs to show some independence from Trump, at this point. But honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if she won while Democrats won places like GA, MT, and KS, this race like MT and KS is not as tied as to the national environment as people think it is.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #36 on: July 04, 2020, 04:50:40 PM »

Yeesh, you'd think an internal that the campaign doesnt even want to release except for the topline wouldnt be treated as gospel.
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