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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Alabama (D Internal) Tuberville +3
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Author Topic: Alabama (D Internal) Tuberville +3  (Read 1301 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: June 22, 2020, 09:37:09 am »

Tuberville 47
Jones 44

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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2020, 09:40:24 am »

Way too R friendly. Trump is up way more than 14 points in Alabama, and anyone who buys this should just take themselves on a field trip across the state of Alabama with a Biden bumper sticker on your car
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2020, 09:40:58 am »

Interesting to see Democratic internals also confirming Sessions' polling decline from March to May.

Anyway, R+3 in a D internal is not enough to say the race is anything but safe R at the senatorial level.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2020, 09:49:57 am »

I have a rule against labelling any race as a safe flip, but Likely R race stays Likely R.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2020, 09:58:44 am »

D internal, but AL is far less likely to flip than AZ and CO
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2020, 10:01:24 am »

The poll is a month old...
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DaWN
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2020, 10:02:54 am »

I don't think it is out of the realms of possibility Jones gets 44% of the vote tbf, especially as Tuberville is a pretty crap candidate all things considered

Safe R race is Safe R naturally
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redjohn
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2020, 10:05:49 am »

Obviously Jones will not win re-election, but under the right circumstances he could make it close. A result similar to TN-2018 is probably most likely at the current time.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2020, 10:09:52 am »

Has anybody considered the possibility of an OK-1964 redux: Jones being Fred Harris & Tuberville being Bud Wilkinson?
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redjohn
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2020, 10:15:57 am »

Has anybody considered the possibility of an OK-1964 redux: Jones being Fred Harris & Tuberville being Bud Wilkinson?

Possible, but Jones won by just 1.6% against a known pedophile. He also has a few years of a voting record far more liberal than what a solid 60% of Alabama would prefer, unfortunately. I truly struggle to see how Jones gets above 40% in this race, especially against a Republican far less objectively problematic than Roy Moore.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2020, 10:18:06 am »

They give us a AL poll which is Likely R, but no MT, KS or ME poll
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2020, 10:22:05 am »

They give us a AL poll which is Likely R, but no MT, KS or ME poll

This is how I feel about Michigan polling. So much evidence when it's already clear the whole presidential race leans in Biden's favour while we're almost completely dark on much more interesting Senate races in AK, ME and MT.
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2020, 10:23:52 am »

Has anybody considered the possibility of an OK-1964 redux: Jones being Fred Harris & Tuberville being Bud Wilkinson?

Keep in mind, that happened as LBJ was carrying Oklahoma by 12 points.
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Daines' Bipartisan Billsô
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« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2020, 10:30:11 am »

This forum has had a nasty and smug habit of underestimating red state Democrats recently. Jones was never going to get less than 40% of the vote, especially when running against a loon like Tuberville in a massive Democratic wave year. Iím not necessarily predicting that heíll win, but thereís definitely a non-zero chance the stars align again for Democrats, and I donít buy that this is less competitive than AZ or CO or even more likely to flip than WV 2024.

My early prediction is Tuberville by about this margin, but it will be an embarrassing result for Republicans either way.
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2016
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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2020, 11:34:40 am »

Likely R Pick Up bordering to Safe R.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2020, 11:52:09 am »

It's going to be like MA SENATE 2012. Jones will outperform by a wide margin Biden but that won't be enough.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2020, 12:11:49 pm »

I mean, I donít think Jones will lose by 20+, but if heís only overperfoming Biden by 11, he absolutely burnt toast.
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2020, 12:51:26 pm »

I mean, I donít think Jones will lose by 20+, but if heís only overperfoming Biden by 11, he absolutely burnt toast.
But still it wonít be a easy win for Tuberville. Clinton got 34% in 2016, so if Jones is over preforming by 11 he would get about 45%, which Translates to a 9-10 point loss, which given that its AL in a presidential year, isnít that bad. I expect Tuberville to win 54-45 or 55-44, however.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2020, 01:43:32 pm »

Too optimistic, though Jones may get around 44% of the vote, while Tuberville ends up between 53-56%. Jones will do a lot better than Joe Biden, but I don't see him hanging on. Too bad, since he's a decent senator. Hopefully he gets the Justice Department then.
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Anna Komnene
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« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2020, 01:49:23 pm »

One of the things that will make it extra tough for Jones is Alabama has a straight ticket voting option at the top of their ballot. I'm not sure how many voters actually use it, but when you need as many crossover voters as he does, it's going to make it even more difficult. But still it's good to see he's made some relationships with Alabamians to outperform Biden by a significant margin.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2020, 01:52:14 pm »

I think Jones is going to surprise a lot of people on election night, and only lose by low-double/high-single digits. Anyway, he'll make a great AG in a Biden Administration.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #21 on: June 22, 2020, 08:12:01 pm »

I mean, I donít think Jones will lose by 20+, but if heís only overperfoming Biden by 11, he absolutely burnt toast.
But still it wonít be a easy win for Tuberville. Clinton got 34% in 2016, so if Jones is over preforming by 11 he would get about 45%, which Translates to a 9-10 point loss, which given that its AL in a presidential year, isnít that bad. I expect Tuberville to win 54-45 or 55-44, however.

I meant 11 points in terms of margin, not raw vote percentage, since this same poll finds Biden down just 14. I think Biden loses Alabama by around 25, so an 11-point overperformance of that wouldnít even be close to winning.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2020, 07:38:55 am »

Unfortunately we all know that thereís just no way Jones comes within 3 points in this race.

If he did it would equal a horrific night for the Republicans
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mathstatman
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« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2020, 07:40:52 am »

Unfortunately we all know that thereís just no way Jones comes within 3 points in this race.

If he did it would equal a horrific night for the Republicans
Hey, one can dream.
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SN2903
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« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2020, 04:53:06 pm »

Yeah right. This seat is already gone.
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