Who will win the Colorado Senate Democratic Primary?

[Woody]

Who will win, and what will the margins look like?

[wbrocks67]

Hickenlooper and it won't be close.

[Woody]

Hickenlooper and it won't be close.

You sure?

[DaWN]

Hickenlooper. It'll be closer than it was pre.... errrr.... pre-meltdown? Pre-whatever just went through Hickecnlooper's brain, but I still don't see it being actually close. My mind would not be blown if I was wrong however.

[Astatine]

Lean Hickenlooper I'd say, could have a similar margin like the MT Dem gubernatorial primary Cooney vs. Williams. I wouldn't rule out a Romanoff upset, which shouldn't be too upsetting considering Hick's gaffes.

[wbrocks67]

Hickenlooper and it won't be close.

You sure?

Yes. People overestimate how much these "scandals" or "controversies" that people here, or POLITICO, make such a big deal about, matter in the age of the Coronavirus. People know Hickenlooper, he's a known commodity. Nobody knows Romanoff.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Still likely Hickenlooper until I see another poll suggesting otherwise (so I expect a reasonably comfortable Hickenlooper win, but there's enough room for Romanoff to achieve a narrow victory).

There's beginning to be some media buzz around the race which helps Romanoff a bit, but Hickenlooper's campaign is no longer sleeping on the job and the big guns are mostly coming out in his favour. In my view, that leaves the field mostly where it was right after the ethics scandal broke and the internal poll was released. By the way, it should be fairly obvious that the ethics scandal is more serious than gaffegate #359 or the slave ships comment. It's the sort of crime ordinary people can't easily sympathise with because they're rarely in a position to commit it and one they can also get cross about because the integrity of a government they pay for is threatened.

[redjohn]

Hoping Romanoff, expecting Hickenlooper. No clue on the margin.

[brucejoel99]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Still almost certainly Hickenlooper, but his margin might not be that impressive.

[redjohn]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

[brucejoel99]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

I saw it as a sort-of 'playing her cards if she knows she can help' strategy. Take the Booker & Bowman endorsements: they have legitimate chances at winning their primaries, so a Warren endorsement might be a needed nudge that can help them cross over their finish lines. Romanoff, though, is seemingly far enough behind (even with all of Hick's scandals) that Warren neither wants to waste an endorsement on a probable loser nor risk having a bad relationship with a likely incoming colleague (Hick) if she ends up staying in the Senate past next January.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

I saw it as a sort-of 'playing her cards if she knows she can help' strategy. Take the Booker & Bowman endorsements: they have legitimate chances at winning their primaries, so a Warren endorsement might be a needed nudge that can help them cross over their finish lines. Romanoff, though, is seemingly far enough behind (even with all of Hick's scandals) that Warren neither wants to waste an endorsement on a probable loser nor risk having a bad relationship with a likely incoming colleague (Hick) if she ends up staying in the Senate past next January.

She wouldn't have risked a bad relationship by staying out of the race if Hickenlooper was a lock.

[brucejoel99]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

I saw it as a sort-of 'playing her cards if she knows she can help' strategy. Take the Booker & Bowman endorsements: they have legitimate chances at winning their primaries, so a Warren endorsement might be a needed nudge that can help them cross over their finish lines. Romanoff, though, is seemingly far enough behind (even with all of Hick's scandals) that Warren neither wants to waste an endorsement on a probable loser nor risk having a bad relationship with a likely incoming colleague (Hick) if she ends up staying in the Senate past next January.

She wouldn't have risked a bad relationship by staying out of the race if Hickenlooper was a lock.

Eh, could've been that Hick personally asked her for her endorsement or something? We don't really know any of the behind-the-scenes dynamics (if there even are any) at play here.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

I saw it as a sort-of 'playing her cards if she knows she can help' strategy. Take the Booker & Bowman endorsements: they have legitimate chances at winning their primaries, so a Warren endorsement might be a needed nudge that can help them cross over their finish lines. Romanoff, though, is seemingly far enough behind (even with all of Hick's scandals) that Warren neither wants to waste an endorsement on a probable loser nor risk having a bad relationship with a likely incoming colleague (Hick) if she ends up staying in the Senate past next January.

She wouldn't have risked a bad relationship by staying out of the race if Hickenlooper was a lock.

Eh, could've been that Hick personally asked her for her endorsement or something? We don't really know any of the behind-the-scenes dynamics (if there even are any) at play here.

If he asked for her endorsement, she should not have judged that the primary was a lock for him.

[brucejoel99]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

I saw it as a sort-of 'playing her cards if she knows she can help' strategy. Take the Booker & Bowman endorsements: they have legitimate chances at winning their primaries, so a Warren endorsement might be a needed nudge that can help them cross over their finish lines. Romanoff, though, is seemingly far enough behind (even with all of Hick's scandals) that Warren neither wants to waste an endorsement on a probable loser nor risk having a bad relationship with a likely incoming colleague (Hick) if she ends up staying in the Senate past next January.

She wouldn't have risked a bad relationship by staying out of the race if Hickenlooper was a lock.

Eh, could've been that Hick personally asked her for her endorsement or something? We don't really know any of the behind-the-scenes dynamics (if there even are any) at play here.

If he asked for her endorsement, she should not have judged that the primary was a lock for him.

Again, just spitballing a strategic theory here. It's literally baseless speculation, as is any theory about why she endorsed because, again, we don't know any of her actual thoughts on this. I mean, for all we know, maybe her & Hick are just already friends or something & that's why she endorsed.

[coloradocowboi]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

Yeah cuz Warren cares only about her career.

I have been involved in Colorado Democratic party politics for a good couple of decades. I have yet to meet anybody except total hacks that is voting for Hickenlooper at this point.

If I were a betting man I'd say 3:2 Hickenlooper. I voted Romanoff though in the poll though because y'all are delusional if you think this is safe Hickenlooper. There is no data supporting that.

Here's why I think it's just barely Lean Hick:

Romanoff is rising at the right time.
Gubernatorial polls suggested Polis would do better than he ended up doing.
Romanoff has pretty much all of the grassroots energy.
The all mail ballot primary means that youth and Hispanic participation will almost certainly outpace their sample size in polls.
Bernie won his largest share of the vote anywhere except Nevada in Colorado, and the activist and progressive infrastructure that helped him do that is still in place and very active in Denver.
Bernie and Warren won a combined 56% of the primary vote
Hickenlooper is an absolute moron who always ruins his goodwill

HOWEVER

Moneyed interests are going hard for Hickenlooper
Romanoff is hardly a progressive champion. Had Griswold or Neguse gone for this seat instead, they would be wiping the floor with Hickenlooper right now.
But most importantly, the open primary might entice some right-leaning voters to strategically vote for Hickenlooper, maybe even people who will end up voting for Gardner in the general.

My guess: Hickenlooper 52.5-Romanoff 47.5, with Hickenlooper losing big in Boulder and the mountain towns and narrowly in Denver, but racking up decent margins in Arapahoe, Douglas, El Paso, and JeffCo for a win. If Romanoff pulls through, look to his margin in AdamsCo. It's very young and racially/economically diverse, so it's going to be the wildcard.

[Arson Plus]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

Yeah cuz Warren cares only about her career.

I have been involved in Colorado Democratic party politics for a good couple of decades. I have yet to meet anybody except total hacks that is voting for Hickenlooper at this point.

If I were a betting man I'd say 3:2 Hickenlooper. I voted Romanoff though in the poll though because y'all are delusional if you think this is safe Hickenlooper. There is no data supporting that.

Here's why I think it's just barely Lean Hick:

Romanoff is rising at the right time.
Gubernatorial polls suggested Polis would do better than he ended up doing.
Romanoff has pretty much all of the grassroots energy.
The all mail ballot primary means that youth and Hispanic participation will almost certainly outpace their sample size in polls.
Bernie won his largest share of the vote anywhere except Nevada in Colorado, and the activist and progressive infrastructure that helped him do that is still in place and very active in Denver.
Bernie and Warren won a combined 56% of the primary vote
Hickenlooper is an absolute moron who always ruins his goodwill

HOWEVER

Moneyed interests are going hard for Hickenlooper
Romanoff is hardly a progressive champion. Had Griswold or Neguse gone for this seat instead, they would be wiping the floor with Hickenlooper right now.
But most importantly, the open primary might entice some right-leaning voters to strategically vote for Hickenlooper, maybe even people who will end up voting for Gardner in the general.

My guess: Hickenlooper 52.5-Romanoff 47.5, with Hickenlooper losing big in Boulder and the mountain towns and narrowly in Denver, but racking up decent margins in Arapahoe, Douglas, El Paso, and JeffCo for a win. If Romanoff pulls through, look to his margin in AdamsCo. It's very young and racially/economically diverse, so it's going to be the wildcard.

I have a question: Wasn't Polis the establishment candidate in 2018 and Kennedy and Johnston the progressives?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

Yeah cuz Warren cares only about her career.

I have been involved in Colorado Democratic party politics for a good couple of decades. I have yet to meet anybody except total hacks that is voting for Hickenlooper at this point.

If I were a betting man I'd say 3:2 Hickenlooper. I voted Romanoff though in the poll though because y'all are delusional if you think this is safe Hickenlooper. There is no data supporting that.

Here's why I think it's just barely Lean Hick:

Romanoff is rising at the right time.
Gubernatorial polls suggested Polis would do better than he ended up doing.
Romanoff has pretty much all of the grassroots energy.
The all mail ballot primary means that youth and Hispanic participation will almost certainly outpace their sample size in polls.
Bernie won his largest share of the vote anywhere except Nevada in Colorado, and the activist and progressive infrastructure that helped him do that is still in place and very active in Denver.
Bernie and Warren won a combined 56% of the primary vote
Hickenlooper is an absolute moron who always ruins his goodwill

HOWEVER

Moneyed interests are going hard for Hickenlooper
Romanoff is hardly a progressive champion. Had Griswold or Neguse gone for this seat instead, they would be wiping the floor with Hickenlooper right now.
But most importantly, the open primary might entice some right-leaning voters to strategically vote for Hickenlooper, maybe even people who will end up voting for Gardner in the general.

My guess: Hickenlooper 52.5-Romanoff 47.5, with Hickenlooper losing big in Boulder and the mountain towns and narrowly in Denver, but racking up decent margins in Arapahoe, Douglas, El Paso, and JeffCo for a win. If Romanoff pulls through, look to his margin in AdamsCo. It's very young and racially/economically diverse, so it's going to be the wildcard.

I have a question: Wasn't Polis the establishment candidate in 2018 and Kennedy and Johnston the progressives?

Polis was a Congressional Progressive Caucus member who'd (IIRC) endorsed Medicare for All. I'm not sure the ideological divide was all that clear.

[Suburbia]

Hickenlooper.

If Gardner wins reelection because of CO Democrats' division, then they'll be eating each other for years.

[NewYorkExpress]

Andrew Romanoff 50.6%
John Hickenlooper 49.4%

[coloradocowboi]

If it wasn't already a guaranteed victory for Hick, then Warren wouldn't have endorsed him as a gesture of goodwill.

Safe Hick.

I have a feeling Warren's endorsement of Hickenlooper was strategic, as she just recently endorsed Booker in KY. She's vying for that VP slot and probably wants to show she can play well with both moderates and progressives.

Yeah cuz Warren cares only about her career.

I have been involved in Colorado Democratic party politics for a good couple of decades. I have yet to meet anybody except total hacks that is voting for Hickenlooper at this point.

If I were a betting man I'd say 3:2 Hickenlooper. I voted Romanoff though in the poll though because y'all are delusional if you think this is safe Hickenlooper. There is no data supporting that.

Here's why I think it's just barely Lean Hick:

Romanoff is rising at the right time.
Gubernatorial polls suggested Polis would do better than he ended up doing.
Romanoff has pretty much all of the grassroots energy.
The all mail ballot primary means that youth and Hispanic participation will almost certainly outpace their sample size in polls.
Bernie won his largest share of the vote anywhere except Nevada in Colorado, and the activist and progressive infrastructure that helped him do that is still in place and very active in Denver.
Bernie and Warren won a combined 56% of the primary vote
Hickenlooper is an absolute moron who always ruins his goodwill

HOWEVER

Moneyed interests are going hard for Hickenlooper
Romanoff is hardly a progressive champion. Had Griswold or Neguse gone for this seat instead, they would be wiping the floor with Hickenlooper right now.
But most importantly, the open primary might entice some right-leaning voters to strategically vote for Hickenlooper, maybe even people who will end up voting for Gardner in the general.

My guess: Hickenlooper 52.5-Romanoff 47.5, with Hickenlooper losing big in Boulder and the mountain towns and narrowly in Denver, but racking up decent margins in Arapahoe, Douglas, El Paso, and JeffCo for a win. If Romanoff pulls through, look to his margin in AdamsCo. It's very young and racially/economically diverse, so it's going to be the wildcard.

I have a question: Wasn't Polis the establishment candidate in 2018 and Kennedy and Johnston the progressives?

Polis was a Congressional Progressive Caucus member who'd (IIRC) endorsed Medicare for All. I'm not sure the ideological divide was all that clear.

I mean, in general, these are all just words and labels. Jared was hardly the establishment candidate, but he was the moneyed-interest candidate and that's a more meaningful label, although tbf Johnston had some of that too (and I'm sure Romanoff has somebody awful somewhere making donor calls for him).

Cary Kennedy was treated like a joke by the media and establishment for most of the campaign though.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully Romanoff, want to see Y2K generations in Senate