MI - Trafalgar Group: Biden +0.9%
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  MI - Trafalgar Group: Biden +0.9%		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: MI - Trafalgar Group: Biden +0.9%  (Read 3570 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #25 on: June 22, 2020, 08:34:32 AM »
High quality state level polling has been really low this cycle so far.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: June 22, 2020, 09:26:58 AM »
Remember when Kid Rock beat Debbie Stabenow?
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JRP1994
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« Reply #27 on: June 22, 2020, 09:36:22 AM »
This is their first poll of the race this cycle, so we have no baseline to compare it to and can't look for a trend
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #28 on: June 22, 2020, 10:45:51 AM »
Still Likely D.
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« Reply #29 on: June 22, 2020, 12:02:49 PM »
Throw it in with the poll that had Biden up 16 and it averages out to something reasonable.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #30 on: June 22, 2020, 12:15:15 PM »
There’s obviously no way Biden is winning the PV by high single digits and only barely scraping by in MI, but MI isn’t going to vote way to the left of the PV or left of MN/NV either.
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Patrick97
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« Reply #31 on: June 22, 2020, 01:31:14 PM »
I doubt Michigan electorate will be that old.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #32 on: June 22, 2020, 02:53:45 PM »
My guess is that Biden will win Michigan by at least +6 or +7 ish.
This poll is off, especially with the numbers we are seeing in the current cycle.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #33 on: June 22, 2020, 02:59:24 PM »
18-29: 9% (2018: 13%)
30-39: 13% (2018: 15%)
40-49: 15% (2018: 16%)
50-64: 30% (2018: 30%)
65+: 33% (2018: 26%)

Yeah, this poll underrates younger support and overrates older support, especially 65%+. But even then, judging by the 2018 results, still seems off that even this sample would come up with Biden +1.

But alas, they didn't release any crosstabs, so we have no idea.

This poll also severely underrates Latinos. They were 11% in the 2018 exit poll. They are... 3% here.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #34 on: June 22, 2020, 06:54:31 PM »
This doesn't add up.

Trafalgar is the polling equivalent to Trump. They got lucky in 2016 and some people think that somehow means they'll be able to replicate it all over again under mostly different circumstances.
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Hammy
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« Reply #35 on: June 22, 2020, 08:32:41 PM »
They were accurate in both 2016 and 2018 with their MI/WI/FL polls and pretty bad elsewhere--whatever they're doing as far as demographics weighing in those three areas seems unique to them but doesn't apply elsewhere, so I'd at least keep an eye on their trends with those three states.
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #36 on: June 22, 2020, 08:38:01 PM »
This is not only an outlier, but a pollster lacking in credibility.
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FlyoverCoast
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« Reply #37 on: June 23, 2020, 02:04:40 AM »
Quote from: McGarnagle's End Times Cavalcade on June 22, 2020, 08:38:01 PM
This is not only an outlier, but a pollster lacking in credibility.

Definitely an outlier, but Trafalgar did call PA and MI to Trump in 2016 when no one else did. But they had a very inconsistent 2018 so I'd definitely just say throw it in the pile and look at the averages.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #38 on: June 25, 2020, 08:12:45 PM »
New Poll: Michigan President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-06-18

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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