MI - Trafalgar Group: Biden +0.9%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F4fied1xg_S7mIBdgHQHC1t98cYys2ez/view

June 16-18, 2020
1101 likely voters
MoE: 2.95%

Biden 46.2%
Trump 45.3%
Third party candidate 4.5%
Undecided 4%

[SingingAnalyst]

I'm not that familiar with the Trafalgar group.

A 2.95% MoE means anything from Biden+6.8 to Trump + 5.0.

4.5% for other parties sounds high.

[wbrocks67]

Ah - and NATURALLY RCP will add Trafalgar!

I just-

[Person Man]

Aren't they affiliated with Karl Rove?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, the Biden bump.is apparently over, he's not leading by 5 to 8 pts anymore

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 rates them as a C- with an R+0.9 bias.  They do IVR polling only.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Biden win MI, but it's a D+2 state

[Buzz]

Trafalgar has a slight R bias but was much more accurate than a lot of polls in 2016.  They had Trump winning Michigan, and literally might have been the only Polling company that got MI and PA correct.


Freedom Poll!

[Hope For A New Era]

Well, they were accurate in 2016 because they had exactly the right R bias. They got lucky with those turnout surges.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Speaks pretty clearly to the ridiculousness of the electoral college.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trafalgar has a slight R bias but was much more accurate than a lot of polls in 2016.  They had Trump winning Michigan, and literally might have been the only Polling company that got MI and PA correct.


Freedom Poll!

More recently, they had Roy Moore by 16 over Doug Jones in September 2017.

[Buzz]

Trafalgar has a slight R bias but was much more accurate than a lot of polls in 2016.  They had Trump winning Michigan, and literally might have been the only Polling company that got MI and PA correct.


Freedom Poll!

More recently, they had Roy Moore by 16 over Doug Jones in September 2017.

In 2018 they were pretty much the only Poll that correctly predicted De Santis beating Gillum.  Don’t get me wrong, they clearly have an R bias.  But hopefully this is a reality check for some people here that really thought Biden was up double digits in MI.  He’s probably up 2-4 points at the moment in the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are gonna close anyways when we go into a Likely voter screen, Biden wins MI by 2 to 4 pts

[wbrocks67]

No crosstabs released either. Sketchy.

[tagimaucia]

Trafalgar has been mostly garbage since 2016 (which sure makes it look like they just got lucky that year).

In addition to Moore beating Jones by 16,  they also had Kemp beating Abrams by 12 right before the election.

[Person Man]

Trafalgar has been mostly garbage since 2016 (which sure makes it look like they just got lucky that year).

In addition to Moore beating Jones by 16,  they also had Kemp beating Abrams by 12 right before the election.

Can it both be true that some of their polls are obviously bad but some of them are good to bolster their credibility? Their polls were right in a few instances on election eve. Maybe their polls constitute a realistic max for a Republicans if Democrats completely forget to vote and Republicans are out in tents the night before. That basically happened in Florida in 2018 despite everything.

[BudgieForce]

Trafalgar has a slight R bias but was much more accurate than a lot of polls in 2016.  They had Trump winning Michigan, and literally might have been the only Polling company that got MI and PA correct.


Freedom Poll!

More recently, they had Roy Moore by 16 over Doug Jones in September 2017.

In 2018 they were pretty much the only Poll that correctly predicted De Santis beating Gillum.  Don’t get me wrong, they clearly have an R bias.  But hopefully this is a reality check for some people here that really thought Biden was up double digits in MI.  He’s probably up 2-4 points at the moment in the state.

Trafalgar also missed both Arizona and Nevada in 2018.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/shepmjs/status/1065743379399462912?s=21

[BobbieMac]

This would put Biden at +3.3 nationally on UNS, which interesting leads to a dead heat in Florida.

However, this is an outlier until other polls show the race narrowing.

[BudgieForce]

Trafalgar also missed the 2019 Kentucky Governor race as well. It's one thing to have an R-bias and another thing to miss multiple close races because they continually overestimated the republican candidate.

Trafalgar was the gold standard for a hot second after 2016, but they've done a pretty poor job in 2017, 2018 and 2019. I'm not saying they'll do a poor job in 2020, but the safe assumption is that their polls have a serious GOP lean.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/shepmjs/status/1065743379399462912?s=21

I like how he left out Trafalgar's Nevada poll that had Heller +3.

[Buzz]

This would put Biden at +3.3 nationally on UNS, which interesting leads to a dead heat in Florida.

However, this is an outlier until other polls show the race narrowing.

we literally just had another Michigan poll last week showing the race was within two points

[BudgieForce]

This would put Biden at +3.3 nationally on UNS, which interesting leads to a dead heat in Florida.

However, this is an outlier until other polls show the race narrowing.

we literally just had another Michigan poll last week showing the race was within two points

From Change Research...

We really need a high quality pollster to come and do a poll here. The last was Fox back in April that had Biden +8.

[tagimaucia]

This would put Biden at +3.3 nationally on UNS, which interesting leads to a dead heat in Florida.

However, this is an outlier until other polls show the race narrowing.

we literally just had another Michigan poll last week showing the race was within two points

This is true, but Change is really bad.  The problem with Michigan is that there doesn't seem to be any one particularly reliable pollster. They need an equivalent of Marquette or Selzer, but they don't have one. 

Maybe Trafalgar is onto something, but their overall track record isn't nearly good enough that I trust them.  It also doesn't match up with the repeated reporting out of the White House that they're worried that Michigan is close to gone. I hope NYT/Siena is polling Michigan in their current wave, they're the closest thing to a pollster I'd kinda trust there.

[BobbieMac]

This would put Biden at +3.3 nationally on UNS, which interesting leads to a dead heat in Florida.

However, this is an outlier until other polls show the race narrowing.

we literally just had another Michigan poll last week showing the race was within two points

Yes but it also had Biden +7 in Florida which breaks my UNS spreadsheet