NJ-05 Primary Prediction: Josh Gottheimer v. Arati Kreibich

[FlyoverCoast]

Any predictions for this race? Will it be a landslide? Could it be close in the end?

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

[Lognog]

New Jersey is not New York, none of these challenges are going anywhere

[FlyoverCoast]

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

I think you're probably right. I wonder what Gottheimer's political future is. As of right now, he seems a bit too conservative for a Senate seat. Maybe Governor? Maybe he'll become part of the furniture in the House.

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

I think you're probably right. I wonder what Gottheimer's political future is. As of right now, he seems a bit too conservative for a Senate seat. Maybe Governor? Maybe he'll become part of the furniture in the House.

Honestly, I think he'll stick around as long as he feels like. The district isn't exactly friendly to the Trump/Garrett brand of Republicanism you see today.

[Dr. MB]

Gottheimer gets like 60-65%. Not sure how he pans out in future races though depending on where he gets redistricted to.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Arati Kreibîtch will loses like 70-30 ahahahahahaha

[पिकाचु]

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

I think you're probably right. I wonder what Gottheimer's political future is. As of right now, he seems a bit too conservative for a Senate seat. Maybe Governor? Maybe he'll become part of the furniture in the House.

Depends on what happens in redistricting, but I think it’s more likely he loses in next GOP wave year than him advancing any higher. As long as there’s a significant amount of NW Jersey in his district, it’s not going to be safe.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yay! I love talking about my district!

I discussed this in another thread, but Gottheimer will win comfortably. This is not the sort of district where a Berniecrat like Kreibich can pull off an upset. Gottheimer isn't quite my ideal Democrat but I voted for him in the primary already with my mail-in ballot, and will continue doing so because I do not want to be represented by a Republican who is far too right wing for my district, like Garrett, again. Gottheimer is the one who finally dispatched him, and he is the type of Democrat who can hold it.

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

I think you're probably right. I wonder what Gottheimer's political future is. As of right now, he seems a bit too conservative for a Senate seat. Maybe Governor? Maybe he'll become part of the furniture in the House.

Depends on what happens in redistricting, but I think it’s more likely he loses in next GOP wave year than him advancing any higher. As long as there’s a significant amount of NW Jersey in his district, it’s not going to be safe.

If Gottheimer wins this year, as he should, his fate is probably sealed when it comes to holding this seat as long as he wants. Historically, New Jersey redistricting involves the bipartisan commission drawing incumbents into safer districts. So if Gottheimer is the incumbent by that point, probably late 2021, the fifth (if it's still numbered that way) may just get more Democratic in being drawn further into more Democratic parts of Bergen County and away from the solidly Republican exurban and rural Northwestern parts of the state that are within district lines.

I don't think he will ever run for Governor or Senate though, he is still a bit too centrist for that. 

[Roll Roons]

If Gottheimer wins this year, as he should, his fate is probably sealed when it comes to holding this seat as long as he wants. Historically, New Jersey redistricting involves the bipartisan commission drawing incumbents into safer districts. So if Gottheimer is the incumbent by that point, probably late 2021, the fifth (if it's still numbered that way) may just get more Democratic in being drawn further into more Democratic parts of Bergen County and away from the solidly Republican exurban and rural Northwestern parts of the state that are within district lines.

I don't think he will ever run for Governor or Senate though, he is still a bit too centrist for that. 

I know this isn't quite the board for that, but I really wonder what they'll do for North Jersey in the next redistricting. It would be smart to draw a Republican seat there - maybe one with Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, northern Somerset and the western half of Morris.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Gottheimer wins this year, as he should, his fate is probably sealed when it comes to holding this seat as long as he wants. Historically, New Jersey redistricting involves the bipartisan commission drawing incumbents into safer districts. So if Gottheimer is the incumbent by that point, probably late 2021, the fifth (if it's still numbered that way) may just get more Democratic in being drawn further into more Democratic parts of Bergen County and away from the solidly Republican exurban and rural Northwestern parts of the state that are within district lines.

I don't think he will ever run for Governor or Senate though, he is still a bit too centrist for that.  

I know this isn't quite the board for that, but I really wonder what they'll do for North Jersey in the next redistricting. It would be smart to draw a Republican seat there - maybe one with Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, northern Somerset and the western half of Morris.

Well, they'll have to account for the current representatives' hometowns, that's why Smith still represents portions of titanium Democratic Mercer County and Pallone representing portions of Republican Monmouth County.

Gottheimer live in Bergen County, Sherrill in Essex County, and Malinowski somewhere in Hunterdon County. So Malinowski might be the one who has to take the hit even if he does get re-elected, and get drawn into a more conservative district that encompasses more of the northwest if Gottheimer and Sherrill can so easily be drawn away from those parts that they represent. I expect that the Republicans will end up with a very large, safe district in the northwest post redistricting just as Smith represents the solidly conservative shore counties in the south. Even as the 11D-1R delegation may never be repeated again, it's better for Democratic interests to draw two large GOP vote sinks-one in the north and one in the south.

That's generally what I see happening.

[पिकाचु]

Yay! I love talking about my district!

I discussed this in another thread, but Gottheimer will win comfortably. This is not the sort of district where a Berniecrat like Kreibich can pull off an upset. Gottheimer isn't quite my ideal Democrat but I voted for him in the primary already with my mail-in ballot, and will continue doing so because I do not want to be represented by a Republican who is far too right wing for my district, like Garrett, again. Gottheimer is the one who finally dispatched him, and he is the type of Democrat who can hold it.

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

I think you're probably right. I wonder what Gottheimer's political future is. As of right now, he seems a bit too conservative for a Senate seat. Maybe Governor? Maybe he'll become part of the furniture in the House.

Depends on what happens in redistricting, but I think it’s more likely he loses in next GOP wave year than him advancing any higher. As long as there’s a significant amount of NW Jersey in his district, it’s not going to be safe.

If Gottheimer wins this year, as he should, his fate is probably sealed when it comes to holding this seat as long as he wants. Historically, New Jersey redistricting involves the bipartisan commission drawing incumbents into safer districts. So if Gottheimer is the incumbent by that point, probably late 2021, the fifth (if it's still numbered that way) may just get more Democratic in being drawn further into more Democratic parts of Bergen County and away from the solidly Republican exurban and rural Northwestern parts of the state that are within district lines.

I don't think he will ever run for Governor or Senate though, he is still a bit too centrist for that. 

We're only working off a sample size of two when it comes to NJ redistricting with the commission and both times it was done following 50-50 Congressional results. An incumbent map of 9-3 to 11-1 is a new situation and I don't think it's assured that the commission's automatically going to default to incumbent protection again.

[lfromnj]

59Gottheimer 41  Arati, got a feeling its going to be relatively close.

[Lief 🗽]

Hopefully Gottheimer wins, or else this seat is an R+1.

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

Hopefully Gottheimer wins, or else this seat is an R+1.

He will. I think we can do a bit better here, but there are much bigger fish to fry. I'm more focused on defeating Diaz and Carlucci.

[Zaybay]

What Ill be looking for is where Gottheimer's base is. That will likely influence the future direction of his seat come redistricting.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yay! I love talking about my district!

I discussed this in another thread, but Gottheimer will win comfortably. This is not the sort of district where a Berniecrat like Kreibich can pull off an upset. Gottheimer isn't quite my ideal Democrat but I voted for him in the primary already with my mail-in ballot, and will continue doing so because I do not want to be represented by a Republican who is far too right wing for my district, like Garrett, again. Gottheimer is the one who finally dispatched him, and he is the type of Democrat who can hold it.

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

I think you're probably right. I wonder what Gottheimer's political future is. As of right now, he seems a bit too conservative for a Senate seat. Maybe Governor? Maybe he'll become part of the furniture in the House.

Depends on what happens in redistricting, but I think it’s more likely he loses in next GOP wave year than him advancing any higher. As long as there’s a significant amount of NW Jersey in his district, it’s not going to be safe.

If Gottheimer wins this year, as he should, his fate is probably sealed when it comes to holding this seat as long as he wants. Historically, New Jersey redistricting involves the bipartisan commission drawing incumbents into safer districts. So if Gottheimer is the incumbent by that point, probably late 2021, the fifth (if it's still numbered that way) may just get more Democratic in being drawn further into more Democratic parts of Bergen County and away from the solidly Republican exurban and rural Northwestern parts of the state that are within district lines.

I don't think he will ever run for Governor or Senate though, he is still a bit too centrist for that. 

We're only working off a sample size of two when it comes to NJ redistricting with the commission and both times it was done following 50-50 Congressional results. An incumbent map of 9-3 to 11-1 is a new situation and I don't think it's assured that the commission's automatically going to default to incumbent protection again.

Perhaps, but I am under the assumption that the redistricting map that will be approved next time will be the Democratic drawn one as Murphy gets to pick the tie-breaking Independent if that becomes necessary. This is much like how Christie chose the tie-breaker last time and resulted in the map that eventually backfired spectacularly in 2018.

Should all of the Democratic incumbents get re-elected this year, the Democrats in the commission will probably work to protect them as best as they can, though they will probably only be able to do so much since, as I mentioned before, the northwestern and shore counties (minus Atlantic) are just far too big in size and conservative to not involve at least one Democrat being drawn into them and making them more vulnerable.

I agree that a 9D-3R map could become the typical delegation with the next map.

[पिकाचु]

Yay! I love talking about my district!

I discussed this in another thread, but Gottheimer will win comfortably. This is not the sort of district where a Berniecrat like Kreibich can pull off an upset. Gottheimer isn't quite my ideal Democrat but I voted for him in the primary already with my mail-in ballot, and will continue doing so because I do not want to be represented by a Republican who is far too right wing for my district, like Garrett, again. Gottheimer is the one who finally dispatched him, and he is the type of Democrat who can hold it.

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

I think you're probably right. I wonder what Gottheimer's political future is. As of right now, he seems a bit too conservative for a Senate seat. Maybe Governor? Maybe he'll become part of the furniture in the House.

Depends on what happens in redistricting, but I think it’s more likely he loses in next GOP wave year than him advancing any higher. As long as there’s a significant amount of NW Jersey in his district, it’s not going to be safe.

If Gottheimer wins this year, as he should, his fate is probably sealed when it comes to holding this seat as long as he wants. Historically, New Jersey redistricting involves the bipartisan commission drawing incumbents into safer districts. So if Gottheimer is the incumbent by that point, probably late 2021, the fifth (if it's still numbered that way) may just get more Democratic in being drawn further into more Democratic parts of Bergen County and away from the solidly Republican exurban and rural Northwestern parts of the state that are within district lines.

I don't think he will ever run for Governor or Senate though, he is still a bit too centrist for that. 

We're only working off a sample size of two when it comes to NJ redistricting with the commission and both times it was done following 50-50 Congressional results. An incumbent map of 9-3 to 11-1 is a new situation and I don't think it's assured that the commission's automatically going to default to incumbent protection again.

Perhaps, but I am under the assumption that the redistricting map that will be approved next time will be the Democratic drawn one as Murphy gets to pick the tie-breaking Independent if that becomes necessary. This is much like how Christie chose the tie-breaker last time and resulted in the map that eventually backfired spectacularly in 2018.

Should all of the Democratic incumbents get re-elected this year, the Democrats in the commission will probably work to protect them as best as they can, though they will probably only be able to do so much since, as I mentioned before, the northwestern and shore counties (minus Atlantic) are just far too big in size and conservative to not involve at least one Democrat being drawn into them and making them more vulnerable.

I agree that a 9D-3R map could become the typical delegation with the next map.

Murphy doesn’t appoint the final member – it’s the Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, who was a Corzine appointee and Christie reapointee. He also held the position in 2010 and the congressional map appointee chose the GOP map while the legislature map appointee chose the Dem one.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yay! I love talking about my district!

I discussed this in another thread, but Gottheimer will win comfortably. This is not the sort of district where a Berniecrat like Kreibich can pull off an upset. Gottheimer isn't quite my ideal Democrat but I voted for him in the primary already with my mail-in ballot, and will continue doing so because I do not want to be represented by a Republican who is far too right wing for my district, like Garrett, again. Gottheimer is the one who finally dispatched him, and he is the type of Democrat who can hold it.

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

I think you're probably right. I wonder what Gottheimer's political future is. As of right now, he seems a bit too conservative for a Senate seat. Maybe Governor? Maybe he'll become part of the furniture in the House.

Depends on what happens in redistricting, but I think it’s more likely he loses in next GOP wave year than him advancing any higher. As long as there’s a significant amount of NW Jersey in his district, it’s not going to be safe.

If Gottheimer wins this year, as he should, his fate is probably sealed when it comes to holding this seat as long as he wants. Historically, New Jersey redistricting involves the bipartisan commission drawing incumbents into safer districts. So if Gottheimer is the incumbent by that point, probably late 2021, the fifth (if it's still numbered that way) may just get more Democratic in being drawn further into more Democratic parts of Bergen County and away from the solidly Republican exurban and rural Northwestern parts of the state that are within district lines.

I don't think he will ever run for Governor or Senate though, he is still a bit too centrist for that. 

We're only working off a sample size of two when it comes to NJ redistricting with the commission and both times it was done following 50-50 Congressional results. An incumbent map of 9-3 to 11-1 is a new situation and I don't think it's assured that the commission's automatically going to default to incumbent protection again.

Perhaps, but I am under the assumption that the redistricting map that will be approved next time will be the Democratic drawn one as Murphy gets to pick the tie-breaking Independent if that becomes necessary. This is much like how Christie chose the tie-breaker last time and resulted in the map that eventually backfired spectacularly in 2018.

Should all of the Democratic incumbents get re-elected this year, the Democrats in the commission will probably work to protect them as best as they can, though they will probably only be able to do so much since, as I mentioned before, the northwestern and shore counties (minus Atlantic) are just far too big in size and conservative to not involve at least one Democrat being drawn into them and making them more vulnerable.

I agree that a 9D-3R map could become the typical delegation with the next map.

Murphy doesn’t appoint the final member – it’s the Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, who was a Corzine appointee and Christie reapointee. He also held the position in 2010 and the congressional map appointee chose the GOP map while the legislature map appointee chose the Dem one.

You're right. I just reread how the system works. I'm not sure why I was under the impression of the Governor choosing the independent member. Maybe this time that "independent" will not be a former Republican.

[Ferguson97]

Yay! I love talking about my district!

I discussed this in another thread, but Gottheimer will win comfortably. This is not the sort of district where a Berniecrat like Kreibich can pull off an upset. Gottheimer isn't quite my ideal Democrat but I voted for him in the primary already with my mail-in ballot, and will continue doing so because I do not want to be represented by a Republican who is far too right wing for my district, like Garrett, again. Gottheimer is the one who finally dispatched him, and he is the type of Democrat who can hold it.

Gottheimer 65-35. As much as people on the left don't like him, he's a fit for his district.

I think you're probably right. I wonder what Gottheimer's political future is. As of right now, he seems a bit too conservative for a Senate seat. Maybe Governor? Maybe he'll become part of the furniture in the House.

Depends on what happens in redistricting, but I think it’s more likely he loses in next GOP wave year than him advancing any higher. As long as there’s a significant amount of NW Jersey in his district, it’s not going to be safe.

If Gottheimer wins this year, as he should, his fate is probably sealed when it comes to holding this seat as long as he wants. Historically, New Jersey redistricting involves the bipartisan commission drawing incumbents into safer districts. So if Gottheimer is the incumbent by that point, probably late 2021, the fifth (if it's still numbered that way) may just get more Democratic in being drawn further into more Democratic parts of Bergen County and away from the solidly Republican exurban and rural Northwestern parts of the state that are within district lines.

I don't think he will ever run for Governor or Senate though, he is still a bit too centrist for that. 

From NJ-05 as well. Completely agree.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Arati better put my $10 donation to good use, I have a friend who worked for Gottheimer and he's a complete ***hole of a boss. Even if Kreibich gets less than 25% it'll have been worth it!