Why do people expect Democrats to randomly outrun Biden in so many senate races?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why? Biden has much more soft support than Trump, and anyone who votes for Trump at this point will be voting strait GOP down ballot unless it's a Manchin, Brown, Kander, or Tester canidate. I get the case for Bullock, and I get the case for Bollier if Kobach is the nominee (and it won't be much), but Smith, Shaheen, Peters aren't super well known incumbents and are known to be pretty standard Ds. In 2018, a majority of people thought McCaskill and Donnelly would win because "muh incumbency" and "muh wave year", even though the states had gotten much redder, and they faced more credible opponents. Pandering to be bipartisan (like Donnelly did in 2018) turns people on both sides off. Even Manchin and Brown did worse than most people expected. I feel like a lot of Democrats just want to believe that the prospects for the senate are better than they actually are. In NC, why would Cunningham just randomly outperform Biden? He isn't a super canidate, he doesn't have a "southern accent" like someone suggested, and he's a pretty standard D as far as I can tell. We talk about how most of Trump's votes in 2020 will be his hardcore base, so what kind of Trump supporter would vote D downballot after Trump goes after Democrats calling them the enemy of the people? I could see many more moderate Biden voters who want a return to normalcy vote R downballot, after all, trends on downballot races tend to lag behind those on the presidential level. (See AR). I just feel like Ds are finding excuses as to why they are favored to win in the senate. I think Ds only win the senate if it really is a Bidenslide (D+7.5 or so). I think the senate is certainly in reach for Ds, but only if Biden is winning huge, and not with a 278 or even 333 map.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Because the Senate races are closer in the polls than the Trump-Biden race, in states like MT, KS, AL, etc

[Escape Pod Zero]

There definitely are exceptions. I don't think Hickenlooper or Romanoff would outrun Biden. And there is no way that Susan Collins does worse than Trump.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Broadly, establishment Republican Senators are having trouble seeming authentic to voters Trump pulled in but struggling with access to formerly Republican-backing Biden voters. This might explain the polling situation alluded to upthread.

Another factor is just the fairly strong slate of Democratic candidates this time around.

[WD]

Also LOL at Biden needing a landslide to flip the Senate. Dems already have CO, AZ certain to flip (Although they’ll lose AL) This puts them at 48 seats, they only need two to get the majority after this. Theres Maine, which Biden is almost certainly gonna win, not to mention that Collins numbers are going downhill (She’s one of the most unpopular Senators in the country and a recent R internal showed her up by 1 lol). Also NC, where despite your skepticism, Tillis will almost certainly underperform Trump, every polls, even R leaning ones have showed him underperforming Trump by 1-3 points. If Trump wins by a narrow margin in NC, Tillis is 50-50 odds to win/lose. If Biden carries the State he has no chance. Not to mention that Biden is currently favored in NC, he has a narrow lead in the 538 average, I don’t know why people think Trump will loose states like FL and GA but hold on to NC. Also MT, where Bullock will Over perform Biden by double digits. He did it in 2016 and will likely do the same in 2020. Trump won MT by 21 in 2016 and Bullock won by 4. An over performance of 25 pts! Polls have indicated that Trump will likely do worse than that ( Probably winning by low to mid double digits) So even if Bullock loses a bit of his crossover support, due to pOlArIzATioN, he will likely still win. Say Trump wins MT by 15 points, it would take Bullock doing more than 10 percent worse to lose to Daines. Given the national environment and multiple polls showing Bullock leading, this is unlikely. There are more races I could discuss, bit these main 3 ME, MT, and NC are imo the ones that will decide Senate control, and I’d say these are all tossup to tilt D at the moment. Anything greater than a modest Biden win (300EV or more) will probably flip the Senate. I personally predict between 51-52 D senators come next year.

[Annihilation]

What about random red-state dems with no chance at winning? (Antoine Pierce, Abby Broyles, Paulette Jordan, Dan Ahlers, Yana Ludwig) Will they outrun Biden?

[Mr. Smith]

Because that's usually what happens when a party wins. This is because the Presidency is the least elastic race by nature.

Remember how silly it was to think Hillary would run ahead of Senate Dems in 2016? Well that's exactly what happened...besides Missouri anyway.

Really, if Trump is running ahead of Tillis, Gardner, etc., that likely means the GOP are pretty much doomed.

[Annihilation]

In 2008 the senate candidates who did not outperform Obama (by margin) were:
Vivian Davis Figures
Jim Martin (In runoff)
Jim Slattery
Tom Allen
Al Franken
Erik Fleming
Scott Kleeb
Jeanne Shaheen
Frank Lautenberg
Jeff Merkley
Bob Conley
Bob Tuke
Rick Noriega
Chris Rothfuss
Nick Carter

So as we can see, even in an Obama-like landslide, many, if not most, senate candidates will underperform the nominee. On the other hand, the only ones who underperformed in a competitive race were Franken, Merkley and Shaheen. So underperforming only really matters when going against an incumbent.

[Roll Roons]

In 2008 the senate candidates who did not outperform Obama (by margin) were:
Vivian Davis Figures
Jim Martin (In runoff)
Jim Slattery
Tom Allen
Al Franken
Erik Fleming
Scott Kleeb
Jeanne Shaheen
Frank Lautenberg
Jeff Merkley
Bob Conley
Bob Tuke
Rick Noriega
Chris Rothfuss
Nick Carter

So as we can see, even in an Obama-like landslide, many, if not most, senate candidates will underperform the nominee. On the other hand, the only ones who underperformed in a competitive race were Franken, Merkley and Shaheen. So underperforming only really matters when going against an incumbent.

Bear in mind that every single Democratic Senate incumbent outperformed Obama in terms of margin in 2012, as did Carmona, Kerrey, King, Heitkamp and Howell (Orrin Hatch's opponent). That same year, Dean Heller and Scott Brown both outperformed Mitt Romney as well.

But in most of those cases, it helped that the candidates were either popular/strong on their own merits or facing weak opponents. Sullivan, Daines and Tillis, for instance, are all seen as fairly lackluster incumbents, and the former two are facing very strong challengers. McSally is a very weak incumbent who is also facing arguably the best recruit of the cycle. McConnell has never been especially popular in his home state.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dont forget the same polls had Hilary Clinton beating Trump and same polls in 2018 said that Dems were gonna win the Senate and Beto was gonna upset Cruz. These same polls have had Biden leading Trump by 8 and 12 points respectively and Obama only won 2008 by 6 pts and 2012 by 4 pts.

We still got Survey Monkey polls showing a landslide,  it's a 278 race and Kelly and Hickenlooper arent winning by 10, by 2 to 4 pts, most polls show that's wrong too

[Former President tack50]

My guess as to where Dems outrun Biden with regards to broadly competitive states:

Dem nominee does better than Biden: MT, AZ, AK, AL, KS, MN, IA, NC, SC

Dem nominee does worse than Biden: ME, KY, CO, TX, NM, MI, NH

[Woody]

Swing states where down-ballot GOP candidates overperform Trump: CO, IA, ME, NC, MI, NM, VA, GA, TX (If you even count Texas/Georgia as competitive)

[Non Swing Voter]

There doesn't need to be a Bidenslide to win the senate.

2 senators are in Hillary states (ME, CO)

Arizona is unique because the Democratic candidate is raising a ton of money and the state is trending Democrat.

NC, IA are states that will probably be fairly close, certainly NC will be.

Democrats really only have one seat they are likely to lose.

So Biden could win by 3 or 4 points and the senate could flip.  But obviously if he wins closer to his current polling numbers it makes a senate flip much more likely.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

There will be competetive races in MT, SC, KS and GA, dont underestimate Bullock, he can win and Harrison cam surely win, while moderate Tillis lose. Every race isnt gonna coincide with Prez race

[YE]

You overestimate the crossover appeal that so many so called "moderate" Republicans have at this point. Collins in particular has become much more unpopular since 2017-18. As for the question at hand, it's because what the polls suggest. I'm not sure I fully buy it outside MT, AK, KS, and just maybe NC but I'd be surprised if any major Senate candidates did much worse than Biden at this point.