2020 College Football Discussion and Pick 'Em Thread

[Donerail]

Prepared for no football -- disappointing now that I finally have a personal affiliation with a school above D3

[Donerail]

Thursday, September 10th
UAB @ Miami

Friday, September 11th
SMU @ TCU

Saturday, September 12th
Syracuse @ #18 North Carolina
Louisiana @ #23 Iowa State
Eastern Kentucky @ WVU
Charlotte @ Appalachian State
Louisiana Tech @ Baylor
The Citadel @ USF
UL Monroe @ Army
Duke @ #10 Notre Dame
Arkansas State @ Kansas State
UTSA @ Texas State
Campbell @ Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech @ FSU
Austin Peay @ Pittsburgh
Missouri State @ #5 Oklahoma
#1 Clemson @ Wake Forest
Tulsa @ #15 Oklahoma State
Tulane @ South Alabama
UTEP @ #14 Texas
Western Kentucky @ Louisville
Houston Baptist @ Texas Tech
Coastal Carolina @ Kansas

[Donerail]

Week 3 (week 2 picking) Games:

Friday, September 18th
Campbell @ Coastal Carolina

Saturday, September 19th
Tulsa @ #11 Oklahoma State
#19 Louisiana @ Georgia State
Syracuse @ #25 Pittsburgh
Liberty @ Western Kentucky
Navy @ Tulane
Boston College @ Duke
Houston @ Baylor
#24 Appalachian State @ Marshall
Stephen F. Austin @ UTSA
#14 UCF @ Georgia Tech
Florida Atlantic @ Georgia Southern
Troy @ Middle Tennessee
SMU @ North Texas
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas State
#17 Miami @ #18 Louisville
Louisiana Tech @ Southern Mississippi
Texas State @ UL Monroe
Wake Forest @ NC State
Abilene Christian @ UTEP

[Donerail]

Week 4:

Saturday, September 26th
Kansas State @ #3 Oklahoma
#5 Florida @ Ole Miss
#7 Notre Dame @ Wake Forest
#23 Kentucky @ #8 Auburn
#13 UCF @ East Carolina
Georgia Southern @ #19 Louisiana
#24 Louisville @ #21 Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse
Florida International @ Liberty
Iowa State @ TCU
Mississippi State @ #6 LSU
#8 Texas @ Texas Tech
#22 Army @ #14 Cincinnati
West Virginia @ #15 Oklahoma State
UTEP @ UL Monroe
Tulsa @ Arkansas State
#4 Georgia @ Arkansas
Duke @ Virginia
Texas State @ Boston College
North Texas @ Houston
Florida State @ #12 Miami
#16 Tennessee @ South Carolina
Kansas @ Baylor
NC State @ #20 Virginia Tech  
Troy @ #18 BYU

[Donerail]

Houston-North Texas and Tulsa-Arkansas State have been canceled

[Donerail]

Houston-North Texas and Tulsa-Arkansas State have been canceled

I believe that makes Houston 0 for 4, doesn't it?

0 for 5 by my count — Rice and Wazzu canceled on them, and then both the Memphis game and the Baylor game they scheduled to replace it both ended up canceled.

[Donerail]

Week 5:

Saturday, October 3rd
South Carolina @ #3 Florida
TCU @ #9 Texas
Missouri @ #21 Tennessee
NC State @ #24 Pittsburgh
East Carolina @ Georgia State
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina
Baylor @ West Virginia
UTSA @ UAB
#13 Texas A&M @ #2 Alabama
#12 North Carolina @ Boston College
South Florida @ #15 Cincinnati
#17 Oklahoma State @ Kansas
#25 Memphis @ SMU
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic
Ole Miss @ Kentucky
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee
Navy @ Air Force
#7 Auburn @ #4 Georgia
Tulsa @ #11 UCF
Arkansas @ #16 Mississippi State
#18 Oklahoma @ Iowa State
#20 LSU @ Vanderbilt
Virginia @ #1 Clemson
Troy @ South Alabama

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Week 6:

Saturday, October 10th
#4 Florida @ #21 Texas A&M
#19 Virginia Tech @ #8 North Carolina
#22 Texas vs Oklahoma
Coastal Carolina @ #23 Louisiana
NC State @ Virginia
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt
Duke @ Syracuse
#14 Tennessee @ #3 Georgia
UTSA @ #15 BYU
Texas Tech @ #24 Iowa State
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas State
Texas State @ Troy
Arkansas @ #13 Auburn
Pittsburgh @ Boston College
Kansas State @ TCU
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International
Florida Atlantic @ Southern Mississippi
#2 Alabama @ Ole Miss
Temple @ Navy
#7 Miami (FL) @ #1 Clemson
Mississippi State @ Kentucky
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech
Marshall @ Western Kentucky
Charlotte @ North Texas
Missouri @ #17 LSU

[Donerail]

Try ranking the SEC teams right now (apart from my 'Dores at #14)...

There's a pretty clear top 3 of Alabama, Georgia & Florida (in that order). Alabama and Georgia are difficult to dispute, UF had a bad game against A&M, but they had some key defensive players out, and that offense is head and shoulders better than pretty much any other team.

As per usual in the SEC, there's a distinct "upper middle class" of programs, mostly the same as they were last year with the addition of LSU — Auburn, LSU, A&M and UT. They'll bounce in and out of the AP poll and could pose a threat of knocking off one of the big 3, but it's difficult to see them actually winning the conference. There's also a "lower middle class," again the usual roster of USC, Ole Miss, Mississippi State & Mizzou — not gonna look great most of the time but will steal a few wins. Kentucky has probably elevated itself out of this class and might be the only purely middle-class program in the conference.

The hogs might be able to sneak into that lower middle class group — they've certainly looked better this year — but I'd need to see more than a win over (what is quickly appearing to be a very bad) Mississippi State before I make that call. Vanderbilt is last.

[Donerail]

Week 7:

Friday, October 16th
#17 SMU @ Tulane
#15 BYU @ Houston

Saturday, October 17th
#8 Cincinnati @ Tulsa
Pittsburgh @ #13 Miami (FL)
#14 Auburn @ South Carolina
Kentucky @ #18 Tennessee
Navy @ East Carolina
Texas State @ South Alabama
South Florida @ Temple
Liberty @ Syracuse
Kansas @ West Virginia
Army @ UTSA
Western Kentucky @ UAB
Louisville @ Notre Dame
LSU @ #10 Florida
Duke @ NC State
UCF @ Memphis
Ole Miss @ Arkansas
#11 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State
Virginia @ Wake Forest
Marshall @ Louisiana Tech
#7 Oklahoma State @ Baylor
Vanderbilt @ Missouri
#3 Georgia @ #2 Alabama
Boston College @ #23 Virginia Tech

[Donerail]

South Carolina just upset Auburn.

There are Fire Gus years and Make Gus a Saint years. This is a Fire Gus year. They might actually do it too.

I believe it's impossible to determine whether we're in a Fire Gus year, except in hindsight. Most of 2017 was very much a Fire Gus year, as was the offseason after he lost to UCF in that Peach Bowl, but he had a few weeks in there after beating UGA and Alabama where Gus was able to sign that $49 million extension. Not impossible that we get something similar here (and I question their ability to pay his buyout with general COVID economy malaise).

[Donerail]

Week 8 games:

Friday, October 23rd
Illinois @ #14 Wisconsin
Louisiana @ UAB

Saturday, October 24th
Nebraska @ #5 Ohio State
#23 NC State @ #14 North Carolina
Kansas @ #20 Kansas State
Georgia Southern @ #25 Coastal Carolina
Auburn @ Ole Miss
Oklahoma @ TCU
Temple @ Memphis
Florida State @ Louisville
Tulane @ UCF
#3 Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh
#17 Iowa State @ #6 Oklahoma State
#8 Penn State @ Indiana
#19 Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest
Baylor @ Texas
Iowa @ Purdue
Kentucky @ Missouri
South Carolina @ LSU
Utah State @ Boise State
Wyoming @ Nevada
#18 Michigan @ #21 Minnesota
Hawaii @ Fresno State
#9 Cincinnati @ #16 SMU
Air Force @ San Jose State

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Week 9

Saturday, October 31st
#5 Georgia @ Kentucky
Memphis @#7 Cincinnati
Michigan State @ #13 Michigan
#16 Kansas State @ West Virginia
#20 Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State
Purdue @ Illinois
UCF @ Houston
North Texas @ UTEP
Troy @ Arkansas State
#9 Wisconsin @ Nebraska
#17 Indiana @ Rutgers
UAB @ Louisiana Tech
TCU @ Baylor
LSU @ Auburn
Northwestern @ Iowa
Texas @ #6 Oklahoma State
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt
Virginia Tech @ Louisville
#3 Ohio State @ #18 Penn State
Arkansas @ #8 Texas A&M
Missouri @ #10 Florida
Navy @ #22 SMU
#24 Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
San Diego State @ Utah State
Nevada @ UNLV

[Donerail]

Still think Liberty has a decent shot (assuming they finish unbeaten and BYU, Boise State and Cincinnati all lose at least once the rest of the way.)

Liberty doesn't have all that much of a shot at finishing unbeaten, though — Virginia Tech is a legitimately good team that should be able to handle them easily, and both NC State and Coastal are better teams than they've played all season so far. Pretty easy to get to 6-0 when the best team you play is a 2-5 WKU.

[Donerail]

Week 10:

Friday, November 6th
#11 Miami @ NC State
#9 BYU @ #21 Boise State

Saturday, November 7th
#23 Michigan @ #13 Indiana
Arizona State @ #20 Southern Cal
West Virginia @ #22 Texas
#25 Liberty @ Virginia Tech
Nebraska @ Northwestern
Michigan State @ Iowa
#8 Florida vs #5 Georgia
Houston @ #6 Cincinnati
Purdue @ #10 Wisconsin
Maryland @ Penn State
Minnesota @ Illinois
Texas Tech @ TCU
#14 Oklahoma State @ Kansas State
Arizona @ Utah
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State
Baylor @ #17 Iowa State
UCLA @ Colorado
#1 Clemson @ #4 Notre Dame
STANFORD @ #12 Oregon
Tennessee @ Arkansas
Louisville @ Virginia
Washington State @ Oregon State
Washington @ Cal

[Donerail]

Week 10:

Purdue @ #10 Wisconsin
Arizona @ Utah
Louisville @ Virginia
Washington @ Cal

Rough week so far

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Week 11

Friday, November 13th <– spooky
Iowa @ Minnesota

Saturday, November 14th
#9 Miami (FL) @ Virginia Tech
#10 Indiana @ Michigan State
#12 Georgia @ Missouri
#15 Coastal Carolina @ Troy
Western Carolina @ #22 Liberty
Wake Forest @ North Carolina
TCU @ West Virginia
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
Illinois @ Rutgers
Army @ Tulane
Penn State @ Nebraska
#2 Notre Dame @ Boston College
#3 Ohio State @ Maryland
Colorado @ STANFORD
Louisville @ Virginia
#20 USC @ Arizona
#24 Auburn @ Mississippi State
Hawai'i @ San Diego State
Baylor @ Texas Tech
#1 Alabama @ LSU
Arkansas @ #6 Florida
#11 Oregon @ Washington State
#23 Northwestern @ Purdue
California @ Arizona State

[Donerail]

Between hurricanes/work and the election my ability to pay attention to football is about down to nothing at this point.  Not that my picks were greatly informed to begin with, but it'd be like throwing darts at a board at this point. 

Not like there's football to pay attention to at this rate...

[Donerail]

And down goes Utah-UCLA, with too many positive tests on Utah's side. Cal will play UCLA at 9am () Sunday morning.

[Donerail]

And Arizona State-Colorado has been canceled.

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Hugh Freeze makes sense. He's really underappreciated at Liberty. Billy Napier's done well at "Louisiana", but other than serving as an assistant at Alabama and Clemson, I'm not sure he's done enough to prove he can succeed in the SEC.

Napier was all but offered the Mississippi State job last offseason and turned it down. He's an obvious fit for the job, given his ties to the state — he played at Furman and coached at SC State — and his success at Louisiana. But the most intriguing name to me is Jeff Monken, current head coach at Army (hired there by Bob Caslen, who's now the president at South Carolina). South Carolina running the triple with the caliber of players they recruit... hoo boy.

Will Muschamp actually wouldn't be a particularly bad hire for the Seminoles, especially since he had a history of recruiting well at Florida.

There are rumors about Muschamp replacing Adam Fuller as DC.

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Week 12:

Saturday, November 21st
#9 Indiana @ #3 Ohio State
Appalachian State @ #15 Coastal Carolina
Illinois @ Nebraska
East Carolina @ Temple
LSU @ Arkansas
Georgia Southern @ Army
Ole Miss @ #5 Texas A&M
#7 Cincinnati @ UCF
#10 Wisconsin @ #19 Northwestern
California @ Oregon State
San Diego State @ Nevada
Iowa @ Penn State
Kansas State @ #17 Iowa State
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh
Georgia State @ South Alabama
San Jose State @ Fresno State
#14 Oklahoma State @ #18 Oklahoma
#21 Liberty @ NC State
Missouri @ South Carolina <- USC overperforms, finally freed of the shackles of Muschamp
Michigan @ Rutgers
Arizona @ Washington
#20 USC @ Utah
Washington State @ Stanford
Boise State @ Hawai'i

[Donerail]

The beautiful thing about Freeze to USC is that it'd allow Liberty to hire the young up-and-coming coach who's been doing some great things at Missouri State this season.

[Donerail]

Wazzu-Stanford is off.

Honestly a little surprised that it was because of covid issues on Wazzu's side — there haven't been many positive tests on campus at all, but Santa Clara County (and the state more broadly) has been cracking down hard. Santa Clara had banned practice (requiring the team to practice at a high school field in San Mateo) until mid-October and I wouldn't be surprised if they're considering reinstating that restriction. Not sure what the rule is for a 7:30 kick that goes past the 2 1/2 hour mark (and hence past the 10pm curfew) but I could definitely see that presenting an issue too.

[Donerail]

Put another way: imagine if Auburn or Oklahoma State played BYU's schedule. Does anyone think they wouldn't be 9-0 right now? Me neither.

I count three teams on BYU's schedule (Troy, Houston, Boise) that are clearly better than this year's South Carolina team, so yeah, I could absolutely imagine Auburn losing one or all of those games.

"Ain't played nobody" is dumb logic in the best of times, but especially when so many teams are playing conference-only schedules. BYU's annihilated everybody they've played by 30+. What more do you want?