Which Senate seat are Democrats are more likely to hold?

[Gracile]

Not sure why everyone here is so bullish about the WV seat. It's on borrowed time and will undoubtedly flip in 2024 whether Manchin runs or not.

Yeah, after four years of a Democratic presidency (with the real possibility of a Democratic trifecta) during which I’m sure Manchin will have cast some very... "bold" votes (especially in a 50-50 Senate) I really don’t see how this seat would be more winnable for Democrats than AL, where Jones is at least running against a joke opponent in a Democratic landslide year.

It’s hard to overstate just how bad things could get for WV Democrats under a Democratic presidency, and even if Biden turns out to be a relatively popular president nationally, I’m 99% sure Manchin will have to deal with a much tougher environment than Jones (assuming he even runs again).

I don’t think Biden and Ds in congress are proposing an agenda is that controversial (at least imo) . The most far left thing Biden wants is a Public Option which has about 70% nationwide approval, so I assume it can’t be that unpopular in WV

Liberal SCOTUS justices are a big one, at least.

[WD]

Not sure why everyone here is so bullish about the WV seat. It's on borrowed time and will undoubtedly flip in 2024 whether Manchin runs or not.

Yeah, after four years of a Democratic presidency (with the real possibility of a Democratic trifecta) during which I’m sure Manchin will have cast some very... "bold" votes (especially in a 50-50 Senate) I really don’t see how this seat would be more winnable for Democrats than AL, where Jones is at least running against a joke opponent in a Democratic landslide year.

It’s hard to overstate just how bad things could get for WV Democrats under a Democratic presidency, and even if Biden turns out to be a relatively popular president nationally, I’m 99% sure Manchin will have to deal with a much tougher environment than Jones (assuming he even runs again).

I don’t think Biden and Ds in congress are proposing an agenda is that controversial (at least imo) . The most far left thing Biden wants is a Public Option which has about 70% nationwide approval, so I assume it can’t be that unpopular in WV

If anybody knows how to turn public opinion against the most reasonable of policies just because they so happened to have been introduced by Democrats, it's the modern GOP when they're in the minority.

I think its more of Democrats having an issue with getting their message out tbh

[WD]

Not sure why everyone here is so bullish about the WV seat. It's on borrowed time and will undoubtedly flip in 2024 whether Manchin runs or not.

Yeah, after four years of a Democratic presidency (with the real possibility of a Democratic trifecta) during which I’m sure Manchin will have cast some very... "bold" votes (especially in a 50-50 Senate) I really don’t see how this seat would be more winnable for Democrats than AL, where Jones is at least running against a joke opponent in a Democratic landslide year.

It’s hard to overstate just how bad things could get for WV Democrats under a Democratic presidency, and even if Biden turns out to be a relatively popular president nationally, I’m 99% sure Manchin will have to deal with a much tougher environment than Jones (assuming he even runs again).

I don’t think Biden and Ds in congress are proposing an agenda is that controversial (at least imo) . The most far left thing Biden wants is a Public Option which has about 70% nationwide approval, so I assume it can’t be that unpopular in WV

Liberal SCOTUS justices are a big one.

Oh yeah forgot about that lol
Imagine if Biden nominated someone like Goodwin Liu lmao

[MT Treasurer]

Oh yeah forgot about that lol
Imagine if Biden nominated someone like Goodwin Liu lmao

If he ever cast the deciding vote for that and still decided to seek reelection, he’d probably set a new record with his margin of defeat.

But yeah, there’s a good chance that Biden is going to need Manchin's vote given how the close the Senate will be after the elections in November. I could see Tester and maybe Brown surviving four years of those attacks, but Manchin? Honestly, he’s more likely to get Blanched than Jones. We’ve already seen with Collins that it really doesn’t take much to destroy the entire reputation of an incumbent who used to win by landslide margins in his previous reelection bids, and Manchin wasn’t even particularly popular on election day 2018 (his unfavorables just weren’t as high as Morrisey's, who was probably the worst Republican Senate candidate they ran that year).

[Raccoon]

AL-Sen will be the biggest shock of election night. Maybe not an outright Jones win but we will be waiting a while for the actual final result.

[WD]

Oh yeah forgot about that lol
Imagine if Biden nominated someone like Goodwin Liu lmao

If he ever cast the deciding vote for that and still decided to seek reelection, he’d probably set a new record with his margin of defeat.

But yeah, there’s a good chance that Biden is going to need Manchin's vote given how the close the Senate will be after the elections in November. I could see Tester and maybe Brown surviving four years of those attacks, but Manchin? Honestly, he’s more likely to get Blanched than Jones. We’ve already seen with Collins that it really doesn’t take much to destroy the entire reputation of an incumbent who used to win by landslide margins in his previous reelection bids, and Manchin wasn’t even particularly popular on election day 2018 (his unfavorables just weren’t as high as Morrisey's, who was probably the worst Republican Senate candidate they ran that year).

I mean there is a possibility Democrats get a substantial majority. They could get as much as 53 or 54 seats, if the election was next week they’d get like 55 imo

[MT Treasurer]

I mean there is a possibility Democrats get a substantial majority. They could get as much as 53 or 54 seats, if the election was next week they’d get like 55 imo

Don’t disagree, although it’s less likely that they will actually win that many seats in November IMO. The runoff rule in GA only complicates things.