Which Senate seat are Democrats are more likely to hold?

[MT Treasurer]

Right now, Democrats hold two Senate seats in "deep red" Republican states: Alabama's Class II seat (Doug Jones) and West Virginia's Class I seat (Joe Manchin). Jones is running for reelection and is obviously very vulnerable but Manchin hasn’t committed yet. Which seat are Democrats more likely to hold, even if it’s only a miniscule chance?

Also assume that Tuberville wins the R nomination in AL and Biden wins the presidency in 2020, both of which are far more likely than not at this point.

[SnowLabrador]

WV-SEN 2024 if Manchin runs again, both equal if he retires. Since Manchin might run again, it's barely WV-SEN 2024.

[MillennialModerate]

Chances of re-election:

WV 2024 if Manchin runs again = 60%
AL 2020 = 5%

This isn’t close

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

WVA, Manchin can run for Gov, after Justice and appoint his replacement,  since 2024 is a Prez yr

[KaiserDave]

Manchin has basically said he's not running for reelection

[brucejoel99]

Right now, Democrats hold two Senate seats in "deep red" Republican states: Alabama's Class II seat (Doug Jones) and West Virginia's Class I seat (Joe Manchin). Jones is running for reelection and is obviously very vulnerable but Manchin hasn’t committed yet. Which seat are Democrats more likely to hold, even if it’s only a miniscule chance?

He has.

[KaiserDave]

Right now, Democrats hold two Senate seats in "deep red" Republican states: Alabama's Class II seat (Doug Jones) and West Virginia's Class I seat (Joe Manchin). Jones is running for reelection and is obviously very vulnerable but Manchin hasn’t committed yet. Which seat are Democrats more likely to hold, even if it’s only a miniscule chance?

He has.

Everyone files for reelection

Heck even Feinstein has

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

0 equals 0

[brucejoel99]

Right now, Democrats hold two Senate seats in "deep red" Republican states: Alabama's Class II seat (Doug Jones) and West Virginia's Class I seat (Joe Manchin). Jones is running for reelection and is obviously very vulnerable but Manchin hasn’t committed yet. Which seat are Democrats more likely to hold, even if it’s only a miniscule chance?

He has.

Everyone files for reelection

Heck even Feinstein has

And mark my words, if she's still kicking, then she'll actually be running for re-election too. The only way Feinstein is leaving the Senate is in a body bag.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

0 equals 0

Yeah, given how narrowly Manchin won against a terrible opponent in a great year for his party, this is his last term whether he wants it to be or not (I don’t get why some think Brown is DOA but Manchin has a good chance.) Jones’s fate was sealed as soon as Moore lost the nomination.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

0 equals 0

Yeah, given how narrowly Manchin won against a terrible opponent in a great year for his party, this is his last term whether he wants it to be or not (I don’t get why some think Brown is DOA but Manchin has a good chance.) Jones’s fate was sealed as soon as Moore lost the nomination.

If  Manchin runs for Gov and appoints his successor,  Ds will hold the seat. Justice wont seek another term after 2020

[MT Treasurer]

Chances of re-election:

WV 2024 if Manchin runs again = 60%
AL 2020 = 5%

This isn’t close

Manchin won by three points in a Democratic wave year against a disastrous opponent and will be running for reelection in what will likely be the most Republican state in 2024 after four years of voting with an unpopular (in WV) Democratic president. Republicans will take the race far more seriously in 2024 than they did in 2018 as it’s their best pick-up opportunity by far, and (unlike AL) WV is only getting redder at the state/Senate level with every year.

This really isn’t as obvious as you think, especially if 2020 is a Democratic landslide and Tuberville runs a garbage campaign.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Jones is toast in 2020, lets be real. Manchin may run again, and even if he does, the seat is still a weak likely R in my book, but by default a 15% chance of winning in the 30% chance he runs again is better than the 2% Jones has.

[brucejoel99]

Jones is toast in 2020, lets be real. Manchin may run again, and even if he does, the seat is still a weak likely R in my book, but by default a 15% chance of winning in the 30% chance he runs again is better than the 2% Jones has.

Yeah, this is the inconvenient truth. There's an argument to be made that Jones is helped by the weakness of Tuberville as a candidate, but I can't imagine it making enough of a difference for him to pull off another miracle in an Alabama with presidential-levels of turnout, so Jones only wins if Tuberville praises Satan, is revealed to have forced his mistress to have an abortion, says the N-word, & spouts off about Nick Saban because he just can't resist (with Saban then endorsing Jones).

In other words, Jones has to get really lucky & hope his opponent commits political suicide again. Not beyond the realm of possibility, but its slim pickings other than that. In all likelihood, he unfortunately has a near-zero chance of winning.

[NewYorkExpress]

Both Jones and Manchin are DOA.

Manchin probably won't even run in 2024 (and if he does, he'd get flattened), whereas the only way Jones wins is if Tuberville quits the race to become the Head Coach at Auburn (or Alabama) again.

[The Mamdani Virus]

AL: 5% chance of going Dem


WV: Manchin runs: 15% chance of going Dem

WV: Manchin retires: 0% chance of going Dem


WV narrowly, given Manchin still could run for re-election. But both are DOA, and honestly Manchin is probably getting Blanched if he runs again.

[Escape Pod Zero]

WV at least has a very small chance with Manchin. Alabama is totally done.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Even if you think the margin Republicans will run up in WV is likely to be greater at this point, 4 years is a long time in politics and there's enough time in there for some WV-related political developments - certainly much longer than the weeks until Jones' inevitable defeat.

[Gracile]

Not sure why everyone here is so bullish about the WV seat. It's on borrowed time and will undoubtedly flip in 2024 whether Manchin runs or not.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Right now, Democrats hold two Senate seats in "deep red" Republican states: Alabama's Class II seat (Doug Jones) and West Virginia's Class I seat (Joe Manchin). Jones is running for reelection and is obviously very vulnerable but Manchin hasn’t committed yet. Which seat are Democrats more likely to hold, even if it’s only a miniscule chance?

He has.

Everyone files for reelection

Heck even Feinstein has

And mark my words, if she's still kicking, then she'll actually be running for re-election too. The only way Feinstein is leaving the Senate is in a body bag.

De Leon ran her relatively close and wasn't a particularly strong candidate. If the Democrats have the presidency in 2024 and managed to flip the Senate this year, there is likely to be more dissatisfaction with establishment-leaning sitting senators than there is when they are effectively out of power and able to vote more conveniently.

A 91-year-old Feinstein would unmistakably be a lifer and therefore primed for a strong challenge.

[Mr. Smith]

AL-2020. Sessions can still win meaning

- Trump gives a lukewarm endorsement rather than full on
- The black vote will be more energized for Jones given Sessions record, especially when combined with Biden


Can't think of any sort of way WV holds, even with Manchin giving it another go...even with Trump and the GOP in the sewers.

[Calthrina950]

Right now, Democrats hold two Senate seats in "deep red" Republican states: Alabama's Class II seat (Doug Jones) and West Virginia's Class I seat (Joe Manchin). Jones is running for reelection and is obviously very vulnerable but Manchin hasn’t committed yet. Which seat are Democrats more likely to hold, even if it’s only a miniscule chance?

He has.

Everyone files for reelection

Heck even Feinstein has

And mark my words, if she's still kicking, then she'll actually be running for re-election too. The only way Feinstein is leaving the Senate is in a body bag.

De Leon ran her relatively close and wasn't a particularly strong candidate. If the Democrats have the presidency in 2024 and managed to flip the Senate this year, there is likely to be more dissatisfaction with establishment-leaning sitting senators than there is when they are effectively out of power and able to vote more conveniently.

A 91-year-old Feinstein would unmistakably be a lifer and therefore primed for a strong challenge.

I certainly agree. 2018 was Feinstein's second-closest race in her Senatorial career, after 1994 (when she barely won her first full term in the midst of the Gingrich Republican Revolution). It was much closer than anyone had anticipated. Hopefully, Feinstein decides to retire and step aside for another, younger Democrat to take her seat. I'm also curious to see what Chuck Grassley does when he is next up in 2022. Although in contrast to Feinstein, he won by a landslide margin in his last race (2016), it was still his weakest victory since he was first elected in 1980. Maybe some voters in both Iowa and California have taken the hint about age.

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why everyone here is so bullish about the WV seat. It's on borrowed time and will undoubtedly flip in 2024 whether Manchin runs or not.

Yeah, after four years of a Democratic presidency (with the real possibility of a Democratic trifecta) during which I’m sure Manchin will have cast some very... "bold" votes (especially in a 50-50 Senate) I really don’t see how this seat would be more winnable for Democrats than AL, where Jones is at least running against a joke opponent in a Democratic landslide year.

It’s hard to overstate just how bad things could get for WV Democrats under a Democratic presidency, and even if Biden turns out to be a relatively popular president nationally, I’m 99% sure Manchin will have to deal with a much tougher environment than Jones (assuming he even runs again).

[WD]

Not sure why everyone here is so bullish about the WV seat. It's on borrowed time and will undoubtedly flip in 2024 whether Manchin runs or not.

Yeah, after four years of a Democratic presidency (with the real possibility of a Democratic trifecta) during which I’m sure Manchin will have cast some very... "bold" votes (especially in a 50-50 Senate) I really don’t see how this seat would be more winnable for Democrats than AL, where Jones is at least running against a joke opponent in a Democratic landslide year.

It’s hard to overstate just how bad things could get for WV Democrats under a Democratic presidency, and even if Biden turns out to be a relatively popular president nationally, I’m 99% sure Manchin will have to deal with a much tougher environment than Jones (assuming he even runs again).

I don’t think Biden and Ds in congress are proposing an agenda is that controversial (at least imo) . The most far left thing Biden wants is a Public Option which has about 70% nationwide approval, so I assume it can’t be that unpopular in WV

[brucejoel99]

Not sure why everyone here is so bullish about the WV seat. It's on borrowed time and will undoubtedly flip in 2024 whether Manchin runs or not.

Yeah, after four years of a Democratic presidency (with the real possibility of a Democratic trifecta) during which I’m sure Manchin will have cast some very... "bold" votes (especially in a 50-50 Senate) I really don’t see how this seat would be more winnable for Democrats than AL, where Jones is at least running against a joke opponent in a Democratic landslide year.

It’s hard to overstate just how bad things could get for WV Democrats under a Democratic presidency, and even if Biden turns out to be a relatively popular president nationally, I’m 99% sure Manchin will have to deal with a much tougher environment than Jones (assuming he even runs again).

I don’t think Biden and Ds in congress are proposing an agenda is that controversial (at least imo) . The most far left thing Biden wants is a Public Option which has about 70% nationwide approval, so I assume it can’t be that unpopular in WV

If anybody knows how to turn public opinion against the most reasonable of policies just because they so happened to have been introduced by Democrats, it's the modern GOP when they're in the minority.