Germany megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1630129964388343808?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

One can find Russia's war crimes abhorrent and at the same time think that an unjust peace is better than a just war, let alone a nuclear escalation.

Oh come on, if it wasn't for Putin having the nuclear shroud to wave around the calculus around this conflict would be completely different. Only a few crackpots advocate "total defeat of Russia" in the WW1/2 sense (as opposed to their being obviously defeated in Ukraine) but if they didn't have nukes the idea of inflicting on them a total national humiliation like Germany and Japan in 1945 would have very wide support. And almost nobody would be advocating for an "unjust peace" either.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1630129964388343808?s=20

ungrateful bastards, should have dissolved their sh**thole country after the war

#morgenthauwasright

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1630129964388343808?s=20

ungrateful bastards, should have dissolved their sh**thole country after the war

#morgenthauwasright

If Morgenthau was right, then we needed to march our troops onto the Moon to defeat Nazi space colonies.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1630129964388343808?s=20

I sincerely doubt... I saw numerous polls that were in the 70s. That was a 30-40 point increase from Trump to Biden.

But antiamericanism is real, and I frequently have such debates with certain relatives. Especially staunch crictism over US foreign policy since World War II.

[Estrella]

More generally, I really don't think that "confrontations" of this sort are helpful in any sense. One can find Russia's war crimes abhorrent and at the same time think that an unjust peace is better than a just war, let alone a nuclear escalation.

Thank you for unintentionally summing up the root of the problem.

The central point of Germany's post-1945 coming to terms with history was 'never again fascism'. But that was politically inconvenient – after all, much of the population were close to the NSDAP, even if not true believers – and so it became 'never again war'. The guilty generation is long dead, but the mentality is still here: a post-heroic society that got so used to always being able to pay or negotiate its way out of any dispute that it views the use of force as unacceptable, even in self-defense. Whether it's Eastern Europe joining NATO at the first opportunity or Ukrainians taking up arms to save their country from being wiped out, a certain kind of German intellectual views it as little more than atavistic savagery. It doesn't matter what the alternative is: if you fight, you're in the wrong. Better go like sheep to the slaughter.

An unjust Russian occupation is better than just liberation. Never again war; only totalitarianism, indoctrination, ethnic cleansing, summary executions, concentration camps and genocide.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There will be a governmental statement in the Bundestag today on occasion of the first anniversary of Chancellor Scholz' Zeitenwende speech.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

An environmental disaster is happening at the Oder River, with the exact cause for thousands of fish dying still unclear.

The Polish mining industry seems to be the perpetrator.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder can retain his party membership. The application of several branches to expel him from the party was rejected by an arbitration court in the second instance.

Schröder was discredited in the SPD last year because of his controversial statements on the Ukraine war and his business activities for Russian companies at that time. As a result, several party chapters had brought an expulsion procedure against him, which was initially rejected by the arbitration commission of the sub-district of Hanover.

The appeal has now been rejected in its entirety. The applications are "unfounded," it says. »A party order procedure can only be based on the legal grounds mentioned in § 35 paragraph 1 Arbitration Law. To do this, the respondent would have to have violated the statutes, principles or rules of the party or been guilty of an dishonorable act or disregarded solidarity within the party. This cannot be determined with sufficient certainty.

[Yeahsayyeah]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1630129964388343808?s=20

That can be mostly blamed on the Bush and Trump administrations that have eroded much trust into the concept that was held dear at least in the center-right and center in West Germany, that the goals of US and German foreign policy mostly align.

[President Johnson]

Another ARD poll today found that 59% of Germans think the US can be trusted. I wish the number was higher, but it's still way more than the 33% who say "can't be trusted". Just 47% say so about Ukraine, unfortunately. Just 8% think China can be trusted and 7% Russia. 88% say Russia can't be trusted. Highest trust is usually France, which wasn't asked this time (tends to be in low 80s territory).

[Isaak]

Another ARD poll today found that 59% of Germans think the US can be trusted. I wish the number was higher, but it's still way more than the 33% who say "can't be trusted".

I would even say that this is a pretty solid number given the US's (a) disastrous foreign policy history, (b) unpopular interventionism, (c) decision to elect (and almost re-elect) Trump, and (d) erratic political culture, which appears shallow and unserious to most Germans.

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1630129964388343808?s=20

That can be mostly blamed on the Bush and Trump administrations that have eroded much trust into the concept that was held dear at least in the center-right and center in West Germany, that the goals of US and German foreign policy mostly align.

I mean, the Bush/Trump foreign policy was very self-defeating, but if the main reason for the German anti-Americanism was the behaviour of the US, Germany wouldn't be such an outlier:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Take a guess at what member of the Bundestag outed himself as gay yesterday during a Bundestag speech. 😁

A small hint: He used to be a member of the SPD over ten years ago...

[Yeahsayyeah]

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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The numbers you posted are from 2019 aka Trump and the 40 per cent given for Germany don't seem that much of an outlier, if you consider, that UK was also at 40 per cent.

The 46 per cent poll seem like an outlier, as the numbers have been usually better than that under Biden. On the other hand, I don't consider the US as a reliable ally, too, as all the crazies are not very far away from power and even when the Democrats are in charge, that doesn't mean, that they don't pursue, what they think is in the interest of the US, at first and out of a position of strength, although they are surely more willing to work in a framework of multilateralism.

[CumbrianLefty]

The numbers you posted are from 2019 aka Trump and the 40 per cent given for Germany don't seem that much of an outlier, if you consider, that UK was also at 40 per cent.

Think you have misread the poll there.....

[Yeahsayyeah]

The numbers you posted are from 2019 aka Trump and the 40 per cent given for Germany don't seem that much of an outlier, if you consider, that UK was also at 40 per cent.

Think you have misread the poll there.....

I really did. My bad.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Y'all forgot to mention the most important news of this week.
Jakob Maria Mierscheid, who has been a member of the Bundestag for the SPD since 1979, turned 90 this week.
He is best known for his Mierscheid Law, a forecasting method that predicts the election outcome for the SPD quite accurately on the basis of the index of raw steel production in West Germany. Without any curve fitting parameter!!!!! ☝🏻🤓

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1630129964388343808?s=20

ungrateful bastards, should have dissolved their sh**thole country after the war

#morgenthauwasright

If Morgenthau was right, then we needed to march our troops onto the Moon to defeat Nazi space colonies.

Indeed.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1630129964388343808?s=20

ungrateful bastards, should have dissolved their sh**thole country after the war

#morgenthauwasright

If Morgenthau was right, then we needed to march our troops onto the Moon to defeat Nazi space colonies.

Indeed.

You're saying that's not actually true?

[vitoNova]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1630129964388343808?s=20

For the sheer American presence in Germany, protests showing up at our gates "Ami go home!!" was actually....exceedingly rare. 

And it was usually only 5 or 6 people sporting white-people dreadlocks. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

The specific question that was asked by Allensbach in their poll was:

"Would you say that the USA is a reliable ally for Germany in the long-term, or wouldn't you say that?"

(On page 13: https://www.sicherheitsreport.net/wp-content/uploads/Sicherheitsreport_2023_Charts.pdf)

It's quite possible that I would have answered that question in the negative. Why? Donald Trump (or someone who might be even worse than Trump?) could be elected president again in 2024.

Do I believe that America is a reliable ally right now, as of this moment? I do. But you people have elections, you know. And after your last presdential election, some peculiar events occurred on January 6, 2021. Did that make America more reliable as an ally "in the long-term"? No, it didn't.

The Infratest-dimap poll cited earlier by President Johnson where the U.S. reached a higher trustworthiness of 59% did answer the question in the present and not in the long-term.

[President Johnson]

The Traffic Light coalition has reportedly, according to Tagesschau, reached an agreement to reform the Bundestag election law. It's pretty much the previous proposal for a cap of parliaments size, only at 630 seats instead of the 598 the constitution requires at minimum. Accordingly, the district winners with the weakest election results would not gain a seat.

CDU/CSU are still opposed to the proposal, but SPD, Greens and FDP can enact a new election law with a simple majority, which they obviously have. Bundesrat approval isn't necessary either. Election law reform laws are usually passed across coalition lines, but the Union apparently isn't interested in getting something done.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Traffic Light coalition has reportedly, according to Tagesschau, reached an agreement to reform the Bundestag election law. It's pretty much the previous proposal for a cap of parliaments size, only at 630 seats instead of the 598 the constitution requires at minimum. Accordingly, the district winners with the weakest election results would not gain a seat.

TBH I think this is actually an awful idea. What is the point of having the first vote, then? I think the German MMP system is quite nice in mixing proportional and direct representation. Why not just cut the minimum number of seats to 250 (or fewer) like was previously suggested?

[President Johnson]

Bad news for the employees and many customers. I just read that my store is affected as well, which is located in a shopping center and has been there for decades. It just seems the days of "Kaufhäuser" are over.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1635329896758091783