Germany megathread

[President Johnson]

FDP General Secretary Djir-Sarai now openly states he would prefer a coalition with the Union due to economic policies. Besides of the fact polls show such a coalition is equally far away than trafficlight from an actual majority, I'm honestly growing increasingly tired of the FDP. Initially I thought trafficlight would be good to bring social safety, environmentalism and economic innovation together, but the FDP has really been a force for obstructionism in government. I'm also increasingly tired of their attitude, pretending like it was a an equal force to SPD or Greens (which together have like 325 Bundestag seats versus the FDP's 92).

At this point, FDP honestly deserves their current polling numbers and even being thrown out of the Bundestag after the next election, like it happened in 2013 after the last black-yellow coalition. Their ongoing obstructionism only feds into the narrative the government doesn't get its act together and enables AfD in the end. Not to mention Djir-Sarai blantently ignores that a lot of transformational reforms are necessary now because CDU/CSU for 16 years were massive roadblocks to getting big things done.

[JimJamUK]

The thing is, this was sort of predictable. A party that is in many respects ideologically to the right of the main opposition party going into government with 2 left of centre parties was never going to be plain sailing. It’s also fair to say that a poor economic situation is not helpful when making the argument that their reforms are making a difference. Really, the emergence from COVID followed by Ukraine created an extended honeymoon period that masked how awkward the FDP were always destined to be.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/54e674e0-0210-49f9-ba5b-8187b9b86064

"German economy to keep shrinking, Bundesbank warns"

[Middle-aged Europe]

The thing is, this was sort of predictable. A party that is in many respects ideologically to the right of the main opposition party going into government with 2 left of centre parties was never going to be plain sailing. It’s also fair to say that a poor economic situation is not helpful when making the argument that their reforms are making a difference. Really, the emergence from COVID followed by Ukraine created an extended honeymoon period that masked how awkward the FDP were always destined to be.

To be fair, the FDP also got booted from parliament (for the first time since '49) after four years of governing with CDU/CSU in 2013.

In fact, the last time the FDP didn't bleed votes after having been in government on the federal level was back in 1990 - the year of the German reunification that had large been associated with popular FDP foreign minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher.

1994 election: 11.0% -> 6.9%
1998 election: 6.9% -> 6.2%
2013 election: 14.6% -> 4.8%
2025 election: 11.5% -> 4%??

They also had the chance to govern with CDU/CSU and Greens in 2017, but decided to blow up the negotiations instead because, according to Lindner, "it is better to govern not at all than to govern badly".

FDP is more of populist opposition party - particularly since the dawn of the Westerwelle era in 2001 - and they're always crapping out as soon as they have to put the money where their mouth is.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In fact, the last time the FDP didn't bleed votes after having been in government on the federal level was back in 1990 - the year of the German reunification that had large been associated with popular FDP foreign minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher.

That election also marked the last time an FDP candidate won a direct seat: Uwe Lühr won the constituency Halle-Altstadt, where Genscher was born and grew up. On a state level, Saxony-Anhalt remained an FDP stronghold; former General Secretary Cornelia Pieper was very popular and a crowd puller within that state.

FDP is more of populist opposition party - particularly since the dawn of the Westerwelle era in 2001 - and they're always crapping out as soon as they have to put the money where their mouth is.

And the dusk of the Westerwelle era commenced when he refused to speak English and when he was hoping to retrain as an ancient historian.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

A party that is in many respects ideologically to the right of the main opposition party going into government with 2 left of centre parties was never going to be plain sailing.

That's exactly what I said straight after the latest federal election and I was lambasted for that take by the usual suspects.

[President Johnson]

The thing is, this was sort of predictable. A party that is in many respects ideologically to the right of the main opposition party going into government with 2 left of centre parties was never going to be plain sailing. It’s also fair to say that a poor economic situation is not helpful when making the argument that their reforms are making a difference. Really, the emergence from COVID followed by Ukraine created an extended honeymoon period that masked how awkward the FDP were always destined to be.

To be fair, the FDP also got booted from parliament (for the first time since '49) after four years of governing with CDU/CSU in 2013.

In fact, the last time the FDP didn't bleed votes after having been in government on the federal level was back in 1990 - the year of the German reunification that had large been associated with popular FDP foreign minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher.

1994 election: 11.0% -> 6.9%
1998 election: 6.9% -> 6.2%
2013 election: 14.6% -> 4.8%
2025 election: 11.5% -> 4%??

They also had the chance to govern with CDU/CSU and Greens in 2017, but decided to blow up the negotiations instead because, according to Lindner, "it is better to govern not at all than to govern badly".

FDP is more of populist opposition party - particularly since the dawn of the Westerwelle era in 2001 - and they're always crapping out as soon as they have to put the money where their mouth is.

That's exactly why I think a Jamaica coalition might be even worse in terms of actually delivering results and getting things done (besides that FDP was much bigger issue with the Greens than SPD all things considered, and Scholz has often sided with them against the Greens, but got pretty much nothing in return).

Today, Friedrich Merz sort of rejected Djir-Sarai's avances and rightfully pointed out that a black-yellow coalition is miles away from an actual majority in the polls. He also said FDP should get better in governing to win back public support. Actually hard to disagree on the advice, even if my understanding of good governance differs from his definition.

[palandio]

After the Wagenknecht split-off from the LINKE caucus and the subsequent demotion from caucus to "group", the remaining factions of the LINKE are continuing to feud. Heidi Reichinnek and Sören Pellmann were elected as group leaders, both on a 14-13 margin. Reichinnek (representing Lower Saxony, but born and grown up in Saxony-Anhalt) is from the mostly Eastern "Reformer" wing, while Pellmann has been relatively close to Wagenknecht, but stayed in the party due to him also being some kind of Eastern traditionalist. Clara Bünger, the losing candidate on both counts (and Ates Gürpinar, who withdrew his bid), is part of the "Movement Left", which seeks close ties to pro-immigrant, climate and gender activism. This is a defeat for the party chairs Janine Wissler and Martin Schirdewan, who were elected in 2022, with their rival candidates being... Reichinnek and Pellmann.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After the Wagenknecht split-off from the LINKE caucus and the subsequent demotion from caucus to "group", the remaining factions of the LINKE are continuing to feud. Heidi Reichinnek and Sören Pellmann were elected as group leaders, both on a 14-13 margin. Reichinnek (representing Lower Saxony, but born and grown up in Saxony-Anhalt) is from the mostly Eastern "Reformer" wing, while Pellmann has been relatively close to Wagenknecht, but stayed in the party due to him also being some kind of Eastern traditionalist. Clara Bünger, the losing candidate on both counts (and Ates Gürpinar, who withdrew his bid), is part of the "Movement Left", which seeks close ties to pro-immigrant, climate and gender activism. This is a defeat for the party chairs Janine Wissler and Martin Schirdewan, who were elected in 2022, with their rival candidates being... Reichinnek and Pellmann.

Reichinnek is also a bit of a star on German TikTok, defying her party's minor 3% status in the polls, as it was recently noticed by tagesschau.de:

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/tiktok-reichinnek-linke-100.html

143,000 followers on TikTok.

For comparison: Markus Söder has 56,000 followers there, Friedrich Merz has 19,000, SPD chair Lars Klingbeil has 12,000.

Reichinnek gets beaten by the Biden-Harris campaign's account though, with 161,000 followers.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Forsa poll

CDU/CSU 30% (-1)
AfD 17% (-1)
SPD 15% (+/-0)
Greens 14% (+/-0)
FDP 5% (+1)
BSW 4% (-1)
Left 3% (+/-0)
Free Voters 3% (??)

[palandio]

Forsa is consistently reporting 3% results and consistently not reporting anything below, so probably the Free Voters were at 2% last week.

At the moment apart from the two INSA polls a week and the weekly Forsa poll, polls seem to come in waves. And since INSA and Forsa both have their issues, it will be helpful to see the next Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen polls.

[President Johnson]

After the Wagenknecht split-off from the LINKE caucus and the subsequent demotion from caucus to "group", the remaining factions of the LINKE are continuing to feud. Heidi Reichinnek and Sören Pellmann were elected as group leaders, both on a 14-13 margin. Reichinnek (representing Lower Saxony, but born and grown up in Saxony-Anhalt) is from the mostly Eastern "Reformer" wing, while Pellmann has been relatively close to Wagenknecht, but stayed in the party due to him also being some kind of Eastern traditionalist. Clara Bünger, the losing candidate on both counts (and Ates Gürpinar, who withdrew his bid), is part of the "Movement Left", which seeks close ties to pro-immigrant, climate and gender activism. This is a defeat for the party chairs Janine Wissler and Martin Schirdewan, who were elected in 2022, with their rival candidates being... Reichinnek and Pellmann.

Reichinnek is also a bit of a star on German TikTok, defying her party's minor 3% status in the polls, as it was recently noticed by tagesschau.de:

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/tiktok-reichinnek-linke-100.html

143,000 followers on TikTok.

For comparison: Markus Söder has 56,000 followers there, Friedrich Merz has 19,000, SPD chair Lars Klingbeil has 12,000.

Reichinnek gets beaten by the Biden-Harris campaign's account though, with 161,000 followers.

I never heard of these guys at all. So that should tell you something. Die Linke is finished for good. Just hope BSW and the joke called "Werteunion" by Hans-Georg Maaßen won't be established as parliamentary parties. If we don't need something, it's an even greater fragmentation of legislatures that make government formations even more difficult. It's not healthy to follow the examples of the Netherlands, Belgium or Israel in that regard. Besides of the fact we certainly don't need more populist parties promoting Kremlin talkingpoints.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Allensbach poll

CDU/CSU 32% (-2)
AfD 18% (-1.5)
SPD 15% (+/-0)
Greens 14% (+0.5)
BSW 7%
FDP 6% (+/-0)
Left 3% (-1)



Meanwhile the German Bishops' Conference of the Roman Catholic Church has issued a resolution declaring voting for the AfD to be incompatible with the Christian faith:

https://news.yahoo.com/german-bishops-far-politics-incompatible-161320961.html

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

...aaaaaaand the Cannabis Law has been passed by the Bindestag today.

407 yes, 226 no, 4 abstentions

April 1st legalization, adults over 18 can possess up to 25 grams on their person, and can have up to three plants and maximum 50 grams in your home. Previous convictions for personal possession up to 25 grams can be removed from the Federal Central Register upon request.  

Public consumption banned if you are within 100 meters of schools and sports facilities. Public smoking not allowed before 8 p.m.

After 18 months, a public study on the effects should be conducted.

There are an estimated 4.5 million cannabis users in Germany in 2024.

The CDU has pledged to make repeal the law should they come to power again

[Middle-aged Europe]

The CDU has pledged to make repeal the law should they come to power again

With whom?

I guess the best shot would be the SPD where the greatest reservations against the decriminalization exist. So the CDU seeks another grand coalition.

[President Johnson]

The CDU has pledged to make repeal the law should they come to power again

With whom?

I guess the best shot would be the SPD where the greatest reservations against the decriminalization exist. So the CDU seeks another grand coalition.

I guess they're banking on the law turning into a failure and that it will be viewed as such by the public a few years down the road.

We'll see how it plays out, as there are legitimate arguments on both sides of the equasion, even though I personally think decriminalization is the right step to get dealers off the streets.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The CDU has pledged to make repeal the law should they come to power again

With whom?

I guess the best shot would be the SPD where the greatest reservations against the decriminalization exist. So the CDU seeks another grand coalition.

It's probably another empty promise they know they can't fulfill, like all their previous pledges on things like citizenship reforms in 2001 and 2024 and countless other laws throughout history. Even in the SPD, I am not aware of many dissenters that are completely against legalization of cannabis in principle, but most of the MdBs are more concerned about how it interacts with law enforcement.

So likely never going to get repealed.

[Vosem]

...aaaaaaand the Cannabis Law has been passed by the Bindestag today.

https://twitter.com/OnTheWoolsack/status/1761078356198531375

[palandio]

Shortly after its official foundation as a party, the Werteunion (Values Union) has already lost its first prominent members: Right-libertarian Markus Krall, who had ties to failed coupist Heinrich XIII. Prinz Reuss; Max Otte, "crash prophet", former chairman of the Werteunion, when it was still an association within the CDU, and candidate for the AfD in the 2022 presidential elections. They expressed their discontent with the party's (in their eyes) too soft course. It probably also has to do with Maassen calling CDU/CSU the Werteunion's "premium partner" and calling the AfD "radical", an attempt to triangulate between CDU/CSU and AfD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The CDU has pledged to make repeal the law should they come to power again

With whom?

I guess the best shot would be the SPD where the greatest reservations against the decriminalization exist. So the CDU seeks another grand coalition.

I guess they're banking on the law turning into a failure and that it will be viewed as such by the public a few years down the road.

We'll see how it plays out, as there are legitimate arguments on both sides of the equasion, even though I personally think decriminalization is the right step to get dealers off the streets.

I already heard an argument that the half-hearted form of legalization the traffic light coalition has implemented could actually strengthen illegal activity as opposed to a full-on legalization that wouldn't have left as many opportunities for a black market.

[kelestian]

The CDU has pledged to make repeal the law should they come to power again

With whom?

I guess the best shot would be the SPD where the greatest reservations against the decriminalization exist. So the CDU seeks another grand coalition.

I guess they're banking on the law turning into a failure and that it will be viewed as such by the public a few years down the road.

We'll see how it plays out, as there are legitimate arguments on both sides of the equasion, even though I personally think decriminalization is the right step to get dealers off the streets.

I already heard an argument that the half-hearted form of legalization the traffic light coalition has implemented could actually strengthen illegal activity as opposed to a full-on legalization that wouldn't have left as many opportunities for a black market.

From what I understand, it only slightly affect black market - most weed users will still buy drugs from dealers, only small part will transfer to self-grown marichuana

[Silent Hunter]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68415892

Daniela Klette has been arrested.

[Storr]

You can be for or against sending NATO troops to Ukraine. There are valid points for both sides of the argument. But it strikes a pompous tone when Scholz talks as if he can speak for all NATO and European countries:

"We agreed that everyone must do more for Ukraine in Paris yesterday. Ukraine needs weapons, ammunition and air defence. We are working on it. It is clear: there will be no ground troops from European countries or NATO. That applies."

https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1762452584403529830?s=20

[Middle-aged Europe]

I believe that it was Macron himself who needlessly started this debate which only distracts from the real issues regarding Ukraine.

Worse IMHO is SPD's main appeaser Rolf Mützenich applauding Scholz for not sending the Taurus missiles, arguing that it prevents Germany from becoming a "warring party"... the same argument the dovesh wing of the SPD had used against Leopard shipments and before that against Marder shipments. According to the version of Mütznenich from summer of 2022 we already have been a "warring party" for the past 18 months now.

[Estrella]

I believe that it was Macron himself who needlessly started this debate which only distracts from the real issues regarding Ukraine.

Worse IMHO is SPD's main appeaser Rolf Mützenich applauding Scholz for not sending the Taurus missiles, arguing that it prevents Germany from becoming a "warring party"... the same argument the dovesh wing of the SPD had used against Leopard shipments and before that against Marder shipments. According to the version of Mütznenich from summer of 2022 we already have been a "warring party" for the past 18 months now.

Remember Tucker’s unhinged conspiracy theory about how the Ukrainian government declared him a terrorist and are out to assassinate him because some NGO put him up on Myrotvorets? Mützenich was actually the first one to do this back in 2022. Just an absolutely disgusting character.