CA-25: Does Christy Smith win? If not do Democrats take it back in 2022?

[Bea O'Problem]

What happens?

[Interlocutor]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=373062.0

[Woody]

Garcia both, even on a Trump midterm. Pretty funny how people here thought that Smith would win the special election and it wouldn't be close.

I guess they were half right: It wasn't close, Garcia won by 10 points.

[Bea O'Problem]

Garcia both, even on a Trump midterm. Pretty funny how people here thought that Smith would win the special election and it wouldn't be close.

I guess they were half right: It wasn't close, Garcia won by 10 points.

I thought Garcia’s seat becomes redrawn as more Democratic in 2022. Do you think the Santa Clarita seat is drawn as R+11 or something where Democrats kiss it goodbye forever (or at least a long time)?

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Lean D in November. Higher turnout will very likely help Smith, though if she runs another horrible campaign, and it’s not nearly as good of a year for Democrats as it seems, Garcia could win. If Garcia wins and Trump does, though, he’s gone against a competent opponent in 2022. He could survive a Biden midterm, but it would depend on his opponent as well.

[Tekken_Guy]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Garcia both, even on a Trump midterm. Pretty funny how people here thought that Smith would win the special election and it wouldn't be close.

I guess they were half right: It wasn't close, Garcia won by 10 points.

I thought Garcia’s seat becomes redrawn as more Democratic in 2022. Do you think the Santa Clarita seat is drawn as R+11 or something where Democrats kiss it goodbye forever (or at least a long time)?

You can’t do that without making Kevin McCarthy’s seat a lot bluer. All of Southern California has been trending Dem non-stop for the past three decades as well, so any low R+ PVI seat you draw could very easily be winnable for a Democrat sometime later in the decade. Look at the Orange County seats and CA25 as examples

[Interlocutor]

Garcia both, even on a Trump midterm. Pretty funny how people here thought that Smith would win the special election and it wouldn't be close.

If people read up on voter behavior in Southern California special elections, they'd know how obvious the result would've been. The margin was certainly higher than I expected, but I never had a doubt Garcia could pull it off

[SevenEleven]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

And where are these Republican votes going to come from?

[Mr. Smith]

Nailbiter, but I think Garcia holds on narrowly for 2020, only to inevitably fall out with a competent opponent. Time isn't on the GOP side for this one.

[Bea O'Problem]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

And where are these Republican votes going to come from?

I assume the Republican voters in such a hypothetical district would come from Kern County in a hypothetical R+11 district.

[SevenEleven]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

And where are these Republican votes going to come from?

I assume the Republican voters in such a hypothetical district would come from Kern County in a hypothetical R+11 district.

That's impossible. Garcia won't be replacing Kevin McCarthy even if the commission drew the Worst District Ever.

[Tekken_Guy]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

And where are these Republican votes going to come from?

From a low-turnout Biden midterm electorate. The rest of the district is made of R-leaning parts of Ventura, Santa Barbara, and Santa Cruz.

[SevenEleven]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

And where are these Republican votes going to come from?

From a low-turnout Biden midterm electorate. The rest of the district is made of R-leaning parts of Ventura, Santa Barbara, and Santa Cruz.

Thats...not even remotely true. The Antelope Valley is the most conservative area that borders Santa Clarita.

[Bea O'Problem]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

And where are these Republican votes going to come from?

I assume the Republican voters in such a hypothetical district would come from Kern County in a hypothetical R+11 district.

That's impossible. Garcia won't be replacing Kevin McCarthy even if the commission drew the Worst District Ever.

Maybe CA-08 would take in Santa Clarita on a hypothetical map? Maybe something like this with more parts of the Victor Valley and without Mono County?

[SevenEleven]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

And where are these Republican votes going to come from?

I assume the Republican voters in such a hypothetical district would come from Kern County in a hypothetical R+11 district.

That's impossible. Garcia won't be replacing Kevin McCarthy even if the commission drew the Worst District Ever.

Maybe CA-08 would take in Santa Clarita on a hypothetical map? Maybe something like this with more parts of the Victor Valley and without Mono County?

Population changes mean that Santa Clarita would not be able to fit in that district; Antelope Valley and Victor Valley are too large.

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

Smith wins, Republicans take it back in 2022.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Smith wins and loses in the primary in 2022. The Republicans probably take it back anyway, but I don't think she'll make it to the next GE.

[Bea O'Problem]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

And where are these Republican votes going to come from?

I assume the Republican voters in such a hypothetical district would come from Kern County in a hypothetical R+11 district.

That's impossible. Garcia won't be replacing Kevin McCarthy even if the commission drew the Worst District Ever.

Maybe CA-08 would take in Santa Clarita on a hypothetical map? Maybe something like this with more parts of the Victor Valley and without Mono County?

Population changes mean that Santa Clarita would not be able to fit in that district; Antelope Valley and Victor Valley are too large.

I said not quite the same district. Mono County and other areas in San Bernardino County would be removed.

[SevenEleven]

Smith wins in 2020, but Garcia wins it back in 2022 after the Antelope Valley is drawn out.

And where are these Republican votes going to come from?

I assume the Republican voters in such a hypothetical district would come from Kern County in a hypothetical R+11 district.

That's impossible. Garcia won't be replacing Kevin McCarthy even if the commission drew the Worst District Ever.

Maybe CA-08 would take in Santa Clarita on a hypothetical map? Maybe something like this with more parts of the Victor Valley and without Mono County?

Population changes mean that Santa Clarita would not be able to fit in that district; Antelope Valley and Victor Valley are too large.

I said not quite the same district. Mono County and other areas in San Bernardino County would be removed.

There's absolutely no way to make a Santa Clarita district more Republican by removing the Antelope Valley as the poster above suggested.