Could Cornyn win by double digits?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Texas senate is a seat that a lot of people don't really look at, because it seems that the Democrats don't really have much of a chance here going against incumbent Senator John Cornyn. I think the Atlas conclusion so far is that he will win, but I want to take it a step further and say he has potential to win by over 10 points. I'm not saying he will, and I have this seat at likely R right now, but I think it is a real possibility.
Some things to consider:

• Cornyn is an incumbent which usually helps quite a bit, even better he has been an incumbent for 3 terms, which might put him on a better foot with voters.
• In all of his other 3 terms, he has won by double digits convincingly even in the 2008 Obama landslide year.
• Latino support-Cornyn narrowly won the Latino vote in 2014.¹ Of course, he's probably not going to get that this time, but being on a good foot with Latino voters is key in a state like Texas.
• Moderate Republican-Cornyn is a moderate Republican, the classic Texas kind. He has pushed for things like making Juneteenth a federal holiday.²This might help him with suburban voters possibly, similar to how he won Harris county in 2014. He is very different to Cruz's more loud and very conservative policies.
• Weaker Democrats-There is no "Beto O'rourke" style candidate here in 2020. The nominee will probably be MJ Hegar who isn't necessarily the strongest person to go against Cornyn. West might be a slightly better option, but neither of these candidates will be able to enthuse the Latino base in the state, which is something the Democrats must do to win the seat.
• Poll numbers are pretty good³-We don't have a whole lot of polling, but if you look at it Cornyn is in a very strong position. He is in high single digits or low double digits.

• Texas is still a red state right now, it might be changing, but it's very Republican still

I'm not saying he will win by double digits, just that it is a very real possibility that Cornyn could win by 10 or 12 points.
1)https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2014/11/07/hispanic-voters-in-the-2014-election/
2)https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/john-cornyn-juneteenth-holiday/
3)https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/texas/

[Annihilation]

I think the demographics have shifted to a point where the range possible outcomes in Texas statewide races gets slimmer every year.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Half of your bullet points are BS and I don’t have the energy to say anything other than no

[andjey]

Other answer than NO is stupid

[Dipper Josh]

Even with average/subpar candidates like West or Hegar, I reckon it'll end up in the high single digits.

[MT Treasurer]

No, and this race is the epitome of faulty and hilariously subjective #CandidateQualityMatters analysis.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Even with average/subpar candidates like West or Hegar, I reckon it'll end up in the high single digits.

Same I think Cornyn wins by 7 or so, but I think it's more likely he cracks 10% than the Democrat winning the race.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

If it’s a red wave year, maybe barely. Otherwise, no.

[ProgressiveModerate]

He could. For now Cornyn + 6, pretty strong likely R since Texas is pretty big and inelastic.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

TX is a battleground state and it is the next state to fall after SC, underestimating Dems in TX isnt what you should go by, TX has been hit hard, just like FL with Covid 19

[MT Treasurer]

He could. For now Cornyn + 6, pretty strong likely R since Texas is pretty big and inelastic.

How? I’m genuinely curious. Their very popular Republican governor only won by 13 points against an opponent who was hardly "stronger" than Hegar/West and Cornyn is not only nowhere near as popular/well-defined as Abbott but also running in a more "partisan" Senate race in a presidential year in which TX will be very close in an environment which is at least as Democratic-friendly as 2018. Is Cornyn as popular as Perdue in the suburbs or where are all those Biden/Cornyn voters going to come from?

You say that Texas is "inelastic" so here’s a friendly reminder that the last Senate race in TX was decided by less than three percentage points and virtually every TX poll shows Biden competitive in the state. Cornyn isn’t winning by double digits in an environment in which Republicans are in danger of losing a Senate seat in IA.

[The Mamdani Virus]

No, and honestly he could very lose if the national environment stays as it is.

[Calthrina950]

While I still believe Cornyn will outperform Trump (although the difference is going to be much less marginal than would have initially been thought), I think it is unlikely that he wins by double digits at this point. The most that I could see him prevailing by is between 6-9%.

[OneJ]

Maybe in your dreams.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nah. 52-46 Cornyn now.

[Raccoon]

The largest margin a Republican could win in Texas right now, barring an extremely popular incumbent, is by 10 points.

I do not foresee many landslide GOP victories in Texas in the next few cycles.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think the demographics have shifted to a point where the range possible outcomes in Texas statewide races gets slimmer every year.

Perhaps but Cornyn won the Latino vote back in 2014, so he might do decent with them again

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn is gonna win, Cornyn was vulnerable but now he will beat Hegar or White

[Astatine]

Cornyn is gonna win, Cornyn was vulnerable but now he will beat Hegar or White

ok booker

[Lief 🗽]

Abbott's race in 2018 was basically the most favorable set-up in this environment for a Republican, and he still only won by 13. Winning by double digits seems unlikely to me, he'll probably do a few points better than Trump (+7 or 8 I'd guess).

[South Dakota Democrat]

Could he?  Yes.
Will he?  I doubt it.

[We Live in Black and White]

In this environment, no. The national political climate isn't getting better for the GOP, nor does it look like it really will, and Texas is no longer a reliable part of their firewall.

[Deportarian]

Dems remain out of touch on atlas

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

TX is statistically tied in the last poll, Cornyn wont win by double digits, again 2016 isnt everything, this isnt 2004 where 269 votes, Dems can win by. Dems can win MT, KS and TX

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This thread is started by the OP whom thinks PA will stay red, het real, this isnt 2004, its 2020 and Trump has a 45 L unemployment rate not 3.5 percent