If Biden wins 2020, will the 2024 Democratic primary be competitive?

[AGA]

Le't say Biden wins 2020 and decides to only serve one term. Would his VP get a coronation in 2024, or would she face a competitive primary?

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Huh, I actually Was going to ask this a few days ago and simply forgot.

It depends who’s chosen, but it probably won’t be very competitive.

[pikachu]

I feel some sort of token progressive candidate running is inevitable.

Otherwise, it all depends on how Biden's term goes, right? There's clearly division in the party, and if he ends up being unpopular, there's not a lack of ambitious Democrats who'd want to take advantage of it.

[dw93]

It'll be similar to 2016 as it'll be Biden's VP vs a Progressive that does better than expected.

[Empty Rhetoric]

Without the threat of Trump in office, I’d guess voters would be far more open to electing a progressive candidate(see the ideological vs. electability battle this primary season). The narrative this time around was about the danger of Donald Trump over the direction of the party.

[ShadowRocket]

It'll be similar to 2016 as it'll be Biden's VP vs a Progressive that does better than expected.

I think this is about right unless Biden picks Warren for VP which is appearing increasingly unlikely.  Speaking of whom seems the best posed to be that challenger.

[brucejoel99]

Assuming the VP isn't a progressive (e.g., Warren or somehow Abrams), it'd be somewhat competitive, given the Democratic Party's evident moderate/progressive divide. Personally, I think the VP would probably only start out as clear a front-runner for the 2024 nomination as Biden did for the 2020 nomination (though, suffice it to say that such being the case obviously still turned out pretty well for him).

In any event (with the obvious exception of Biden running for re-election as an incumbent, though), I think the 2024 Democratic primary would be more of a 2020/16 redux than a 2000 or (GOP) 1992-like redux.

[coloradocowboi]

Out of the current crop of VP choices, I think only Stacey Abrams would make it through a primary unscathed.

All of the white women, including Warren, would get buried by someone like AOC. Not sure what would happen with Kamala, but I assume the Black establishment could successfully rescue her like they did Biden.

[Del Tachi]

Probably Harris vs AOC

[Mr. Morden]

What if Biden pulls a Pope Benedict, and steps down early for health reasons, say halfway through his term?  His VP then runs in 2024 as the incumbent president.  Would she face any meaningful opposition in the primary at all?

[Nightcore Nationalist]

What if Biden pulls a Pope Benedict, and steps down early for health reasons, say halfway through his term?  His VP then runs in 2024 as the incumbent president.  Would she face any meaningful opposition in the primary at all?

That's certainly a plausible scenario, and it's unlikely she would face any real competition, unless some crisis happened that crashed her approvals well into the thirties.

[MABA 2020]

I assume Kamala Harris will be the clear frontrunner as the incumbent VP, AOC will run to try and push Harris to the left

[President Biden Democrat]

Eh. It could be depending on the VP and how the country is doing. In all likelihood, the primary will be competitive but Biden's VP will come out on top and will be the Democratic Nominee in 2024.

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes in the sense that the leading challenger probably will win multiple primaries/caucuses.

We aren't really talking about Al Gore in 2000, where he only got one opponent. Whoever that VP is will get multiple opponents (especially if he picks someone like Warren, who isn't that young herself-a bunch of younger Democrats will challenge her in the primaries).

[Tartarus Sauce]

Yes, I expect it to be so, the progressives wing will definitely end up making another run for the nomination.