Romney: 258
Sanders: 253
Toss-up: 27 (OH and CO, I can't pick which way they would go)
R flips from 2012: NH, VA, FL, NV
I think the populist, anti-Wall Street campaign Sanders ran in 2016 would have been particularly effective against Romney. Basically, Sanders would get to run an anti-establishment campaign, because even though he represented the party in power, Romney is the personification of the American elite: WASP (or WASM I guess), wealthy, worked in the finance industry, perfectly slicked hair and a LinkedIn photo smile. I think the Sanders campaign would have taken a very populist turn, and it would have held its primary coalition of young leftists and the WWC.
But this kind of brash populism will be countered by the fact that he's a socialist, and older people will break heavily for Romney. Many upscale suburban democrats would either sit this election out, or vote for Romney. In Florida, Bernie would be DOA. I think Connecticut would get dangerously close, and New Jersey will be competitive. And if the Sanders campaign becomes aggressively populist, it will turn off many liberals. And of course, the Romney campaign would be much better financed.
I don't agree with this. I don't really think that Romney would be able to win NV & CO. Also don't think Romney would win NH. Sanders is from the Northeast and would have broad appeal to that area of the country. I do think Sanders would win this election.
Sanders: 285 √ Romney: 253 
