Has the ever-unpopular two-party system actually been our saving grace in the Trump era?

[Hope For A New Era]

I came to this realization very suddenly yesterday. I really do believe that the two-party system has prevented our country from becoming another Hungary. Imagine breaking each party - the Republicans would probably split into two (Trumpist and anti-Trumpist), while I could easily see the Democrats splitting into three or more. The result would be one large party with an unbreakable lock on 40% or so of the population, then ~5 small parties. The Trumpists could then do a Hungary and gerrymander the whole country to make it nearly impossible to remove them from power.

Notice Hungary's other recent political phenomenon as well: some progress has been made against Orbán's strength through opposition unity. In recent elections, it has been increasingly common to have just a single opposition candidate against the Fidesz candidate. This is really the only strategy that has been effective.

I think we're very lucky that in the United States, the opposition to right-wing populism is already by default consolidated into a single party.


Thoughts?

[dead0man]

I disagree, the "right" is more than just Trumpists and anti-Trumpists and even if it was just those two, there is no way they are going to work together.  Trumpists are like 25% of adults at most and would never be able to form a coalition with any other groups.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean, there are many other differences between the political conditions in the US vs in Hungary, so that's a bit of an oversimplifications. But yes, multi-party systems under a plurality electoral system tend to be disastrous for representation (there are many more such examples than Hungary - look at Canada or the UK as well). The problem in the US isn't the two-party system in itself, but FPP. Replace it with PR or even RCV, and you will see new parties arise without getting a Hungary-like scenario.

[Cashew]

Saving Grace? It's what incentivizes so many conservatives to stick to Trump in the first place! Under the two party system any action taken to harm the Republican party benefits the Democrats even if indirectly, therfore if you want the policies you favor enacted it can seem reasoanble to defend the leader no matter how terrible they are. Under proportional represenatation however weakening one right wing party woudn't necessarily strenthen the left becasue conservative voters would have the option of shifting from one right wing party to another. Having multiple option to choose from makes it pontless to defend a bad leader because you are free to walk away and have you vote matter just as much in another party that still shares some of your beliefs.

[John Dule]

Since I've been reading The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich lately, I've become a bit more sympathetic to this argument. Multiparty legislatures are fraught with problems. Still, I'm nevertheless inclined to agree with this:

Saving Grace? It's what incentivizes so many conservatives to stick to Trump in the first place!

[SingingAnalyst]

Interesting take. I agree, up to a point.

After the 2000 debacle, many communities instituted electoral reforms such as IRV, ostensibly to prevent another Bush-Gore type result. In at least one case (Burlington, VT), that produced an unpopular result (Bob Kiss for mayor IIRC), and it was repealed, narrowly, in 2010. But there was no move to join the Democratic party en masse (especially after 9/11).

2016 was different. The Left united against Trump right away (even before he was elected, in fact). So, yes, I believe the fact that Trump's opponents have united behind Biden is mostly a good thing.

I still think we need IRV, and a few other things:

1. We can't have 2-party oligarchy forever. Looking back, Libertarians and Greens, despite their lack of electoral success, have seen a significant chunk of the electorate (particularly Democrats) to come to agree with them on eliminating the Electoral College, IRV, mail-in voting, restoration of full voting rights to felons who have served their time, etc. Democrats did not always support these things, but Libs and Greens did.

2. Third parties can act as checks and balances on one party (a) getting too much power or (b) becoming complacent. Looking ahead, third parties will continue to play a role in bringing attention to issues which neither major party has shown much leadership (abuse of prisoners, particularly including prison rape, comes to mind).

I'm voting for Biden, not because I agree with everything he or Kamala Harris have done or stand for, but because I cannot stomach four more years of Trump/Pence.