Gravis-MN: Biden +17
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  Gravis-MN: Biden +17		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Gravis-MN: Biden +17  (Read 1998 times)
Buzz
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« Reply #25 on: June 20, 2020, 09:04:54 PM »
Lean D
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BlueSwan
blueswan
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« Reply #26 on: June 21, 2020, 01:46:18 AM »
Gravid was always trash, but after the OANN polls they did,  feel that they have completely ruined what little credibility they had in the first place, so I am not suddenly going to take this poll seriously.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #27 on: June 21, 2020, 02:29:46 AM »
Microsoft/MSN polling has constantly shown Biden ahead of Trump in MN by 20-25 points during the last few months.

As I have posted in the Microsoft/MSN thread, you need to apply a 10% Biden bias filter to their results, because they only show daily Trump approval at 37-60, when it is 42-55 in reality.

Therefore, adjusted, MSN polling had Biden ahead 10-15% in MN for the past few months.

17% may be a bit high, but if Biden leads by 10% nationally right now, MN should be slightly more DEM, or roughly as DEM as the nation.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #28 on: June 21, 2020, 06:55:54 PM »
Minnesota about D+5 seems normal enough.This fits Trump being behind by 12% nationwide... which means that he could win or lose Texas.
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BRTD
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« Reply #29 on: June 21, 2020, 08:36:34 PM »
Let the state legislature bloodbath commence!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #30 on: June 21, 2020, 08:41:07 PM »

Isn't MN the last state with a divided state legislature?

AK is technically not divided, though the Democratic caucus is in the majority in the state house thanks to a few elected Republicans holding membership.
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BRTD
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« Reply #31 on: June 21, 2020, 08:42:55 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on June 21, 2020, 08:41:07 PM

Isn't MN the last state with a divided state legislature?

AK is technically not divided, though the Democratic caucus is in the majority in the state house thanks to a few elected Republicans holding membership.

Yes although that's only due to a quirk in our election schedules that meant the State Senate was not up in 2018.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #32 on: June 21, 2020, 09:17:44 PM »

If Biden wins by this margin in November it will be a bloodbath and dems will easily retake the state senate
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #33 on: June 21, 2020, 11:11:53 PM »
Pretty hard to argue with the idea that Biden is currently up bigly. The national average shows it and it is consistent in each state poll. If the election were today it would be a landslide.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #34 on: June 22, 2020, 07:55:53 AM »
Sample size? Margin of error?

We need several polls and 10,000+ respondents to get the MoE under 1%.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: June 22, 2020, 07:57:25 AM »
Biden wins MN  by 4 pts
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #36 on: June 22, 2020, 07:57:59 AM »
Quote from: mathstatman on June 22, 2020, 07:55:53 AM
Sample size? Margin of error?

We need several polls and 10,000+ respondents to get the MoE under 1%.

600 registered voters and +/- 4%.
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