Gravis-MN: Biden +17

[Gass3268]

Biden 54%
Trump 37%

Source

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Can’t wait to see how OAN reweights this one.

[Landslide Lyndon]

TOSS UP!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Can’t wait to see how OAN reweights this one.

'When the 10% of voters who said they are undecided were forced to make a choice, they backed Trump by a 6-point margin"


There you go

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

10% are undecided. Push these and Gravis gets Biden 58%-Trump 42%.

If OANN wanted to pull the same stunt they did with FL ("How well do they do among undecided voters?"), it'd still be Biden 53%-Trump 47%.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

"The protests will help Trump"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"The protests will help Trump"

Probably not even in MN, but Gravis isn't a great pollster.

[MT Treasurer]

Don’t buy this margin, but also don’t buy MN being more winnable for Trump than MI.

[ON Progressive]

Can’t wait to see how OAN reweights this one.

This wasn't conducted by OAN to be fair, which explains why it even has Biden up 17 in the first place.

[President Johnson]

But, but SN told me this was going to flip to Trump? I'm confused.

Obviously, Joe Biden isn't winning by this margin. Probably half, if he has a good night. It will be something like 52-44%.

[Ferguson97]

I thought for a second that this was national and not Minnesota lmao

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'll be honest and admit I was expecting them to come up with something like Biden +2.

[Skye]

How can they release this immediately after their NC poll found Trump up by 3?

[Tender Branson]

How can they release this immediately after their NC poll found Trump up by 3?

Mostly because the NC poll was paid for by the far-right OANN, while the MN poll was paid for by Gravis itself ...

Anyway, MN is safe Biden.

[ProudModerate2]

Unless trump can bring the national lead for Biden down to +2 or 3, I think it's "safe" to say that MN will stay in Biden's column.

[Minnesota Mike]

How can they release this immediately after their NC poll found Trump up by 3?

OAN commissioned the NC poll. Give the client what they want.

Not a fan of Gravis but pretty clear Minnesota is not really a battleground.

[libertpaulian]

If Biden is winning Minnesota by double-digits, he's winning Iowa and Ohio too.

[redjohn]

Biden+17 in MN would be a blowout nationwide, by November I'm sure this lead will shrink. MN seems to be Likely D at this time, but it's still closer to Lean D than Safe D.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I thought for a second that this was national and not Minnesota lmao

I believe Minnesota was the state whose result was closest to the nation as a whole in 2016, so in some sense, it is almost a national poll.

[wbrocks67]

While Gravis is trash, I do think people may underestimate how badly Trump's bungling of the George Floyd situation (and everything since then) will hurt him in Minnesota specifically.

[JA]

Biden+17 in MN would be a blowout nationwide, by November I'm sure this lead will shrink. MN seems to be Likely D at this time, but it's still closer to Lean D than Safe D.

You think that Minnesota is “closer to Lean D than Safe D?” Are we looking at the same state and national polls? Even in a competitive election Minnesota is a Likely D state; in an increasingly likely landslide election, Minnesota is certainly not “Lean D.”

[redjohn]

Biden+17 in MN would be a blowout nationwide, by November I'm sure this lead will shrink. MN seems to be Likely D at this time, but it's still closer to Lean D than Safe D.

You think that Minnesota is “closer to Lean D than Safe D?” Are we looking at the same state and national polls? Even in a competitive election Minnesota is a Likely D state; in an increasingly likely landslide election, Minnesota is certainly not “Lean D.”

Cool, that's why I said it's Likely D. "Lean D" to me means a good potential of a candidate winning a state by under 5 points, so if you're denying that there's a chance MN votes for Biden by a small percentage then you're probably not looking at past elections and are giving too much weight to polls that are five months from an election.

Minnesota could end up voting for Biden by a 10-point margin, sure it's possible, but it would be wild to say that it's the most likely outcome when the past two Presidential elections had Democrats winning by 1.5% and then 7.7%. Looking at polls in a vacuum of past trends and results won't give you a full picture.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I've been waiting on a new Minnesota poll since the whole Floyd upheaval began, but why did it have to be from Gravis!?

I want to believe that Biden is ahead by this much, but I know he isn't. Granted, even with the most error possible, it does probably suggest that Biden is ahead pretty comfortably and that the protests causing a backlash that would benefit Trump, especially here, is all a bunch of malarkey.

I'm still considering the state lean D out of caution, but it very well could be likely or safe if we get some better quality polls that consistently have Biden up by even a third of where he is here.

The Democratic/DFL voting streak is not ending this year, that much is also likely.

[Alben Barkley]

Everyone’s so sure the lead will shrink between now and November... why? Hillary was at a low point around now. Who’s to say the lead won’t just get bigger? As Harry Enten pointed out, we focus on one extreme possibility (Trump winning at all) and ignore the other (an absolute blowout landslide for Biden), even though both are about equally plausible based on the current numbers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Everyone’s so sure the lead will shrink between now and November... why? Hillary was at a low point around now. Who’s to say the lead won’t just get bigger? As Harry Enten pointed out, we focus on one extreme possibility (Trump winning at all) and ignore the other (an absolute blowout landslide for Biden), even though both are about equally plausible based on the current numbers.

I don't make the mistake of being especially certain about much in 2020 anymore, but think it will shrink a bit because undecided voters seem to be skewing slightly Republican/conservative in recent polls. In most of these +12ish surveys, Biden's share of the vote isn't rising by 50% of the margin's increase, but a lot of a Republicans feel they can't vote for Trump at the moment (polarisation and a slightly lower concentration of catastrophes at election day should nudge a majority in his direction).