Axios/SurveyMonkey: Biden +8 or +10

[Tender Branson]

Among all adults:

45% Biden
37% Trump
14% Wouldn't vote
  4% Undecided

Excluding "wouldn't vote":

53% Biden
43% Trump
  4% Undecided

Methodology

This SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted Jun 12 through 16, 2020 among a national sample of 6,275 adults. Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data were weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/axios-trump-voters-protests

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE for the full sample: 3.5%

[wbrocks67]

SurveyMonkey has historically been a better pollster for Trump, so +10 is pretty big.

Also, I'm gonna lose my mind if we keep on basing the "enthusiasm" gap based on this question when it is worded like this:

Seven in 10 Americans who plan to vote for Trump in November say they're excited, with 53% saying they're "extremely" excited. Just 46% of Biden supporters say they'll be excited to vote for him in November, and only 28% are "extremely" excited.

NO sh**t! Many Biden supporters are not necessarily excited to vote for "him" per say but to vote AGAINST Trump! We already knew that most of the Trump cult is excited to vote for Trump.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, the "excited" metric is not that important, because even if I were a Democrat or Independent in the US, I'd not really be "excited" for Biden, but would still easily vote for him.

Biden has a much broader coalition in November, Trump only has his base and a couple deluded Independents voting for him ...

[Tender Branson]

Crosstabs (excl. "won't vote"):

All: 53-43 Biden

Men: 49-48 Trump
Women: 57-38 Biden

18-34: 63-32 Biden
35-64: 48-47 Biden
64+: 51-47 Biden

White: 52-45 Trump
Black: 86-7 Biden
Latino: 63-31 Biden
Asian: 54-34 Biden
Other: 53-39 Trump

Democrats: 97-2 Biden
Republicans: 93-6 Trump
Indys/Other: 57-35 Biden

<50.000$: 54-41 Biden
50-100k$: 52-46 Biden
100k$+: 56-43 Biden

2016 Hillary voters: 97-2 Biden
2016 Trump voters: 96-4 Trump

[Landslide Lyndon]

What's the use of an all adults poll? Was it really so hard to call only registered voters?

[libertpaulian]

Biden needs to do better with Asians and Latinos.  He's doing quite well with white voters, and doing quite decently with African-Americans. 

IMO, Harris would be his best bet to shore up his numbers with Asians and Latinos.  After all, you can't win statewide in California unless you do well among those groups.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What's the use of an all adults poll? Was it really so hard to call only registered voters?

What about people who intend to vote is states with easy or same-day registration, but haven’t registered yet?

What about North Dakota, which has no voter registration?

[wbrocks67]

Biden needs to do better with Asians and Latinos.  He's doing quite well with white voters, and doing quite decently with African-Americans. 

IMO, Harris would be his best bet to shore up his numbers with Asians and Latinos.  After all, you can't win statewide in California unless you do well among those groups.

This poll has Biden at +31 with Latinos, which is near Hillary's margin, and FOX had it at +40 Biden the other day. Harris is strong with Latinos though, so I'm sure she could help.

Biden at +30 with 18-34 year olds is also big here.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

According to the AALDEF, 79% of Asian-American voters voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. That also lines up with the 77% of Asian-American voters that voted for Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterm.

Biden getting 54% would suggest a huge cratering of support against the Democrats and I highly doubt that especially considering Trump's anti-Chinese and anti-Asian rhetoric since forever. Trump used to rant against Japan back in the '80s (when Japan was the world's 2nd largest economy).

[Horus]

According to the AALDEF, 79% of Asian-American voters voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. That also lines up with the 77% of Asian-American voters that voted for Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterm.

Biden getting 54% would suggest a huge cratering of support against the Democrats and I highly doubt that especially considering Trump's anti-Chinese and anti-Asian rhetoric since forever. Trump used to rant against Japan back in the '80s (when Japan was the world's 2nd largest economy).

I remember Hawaii being unusually pro-incument in 2004, and Asian voters also backed George Bush in 1992. Asian Americans are very pro incumbent.

[wbrocks67]

According to the AALDEF, 79% of Asian-American voters voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. That also lines up with the 77% of Asian-American voters that voted for Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterm.

Biden getting 54% would suggest a huge cratering of support against the Democrats and I highly doubt that especially considering Trump's anti-Chinese and anti-Asian rhetoric since forever. Trump used to rant against Japan back in the '80s (when Japan was the world's 2nd largest economy).

I remember Hawaii being unusually pro-incument in 2004, and Asian voters also backed George Bush in 1992. Asian Americans are very pro incumbent.

Asian Americans have also lurched leftward though, especially in party registration.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

According to the AALDEF, 79% of Asian-American voters voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. That also lines up with the 77% of Asian-American voters that voted for Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterm.

Biden getting 54% would suggest a huge cratering of support against the Democrats and I highly doubt that especially considering Trump's anti-Chinese and anti-Asian rhetoric since forever. Trump used to rant against Japan back in the '80s (when Japan was the world's 2nd largest economy).

I remember Hawaii being unusually pro-incument in 2004, and Asian voters also backed George Bush in 1992. Asian Americans are very pro incumbent.

LMAO, that was a different era. Asian-American voters have largely abandoned the GOP, especially Asian-Americans under 45.

I don't believe that Asian-American voters in just 2 years (which was a Trump midterm) are going to go from voting 77% Democratic to 54%.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Who exactly are these "others" who support Trump by so much?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The state by state polls are closing but you have natl polls showing wide leads, due to fact after Labor we will be in the Likely voter screen. I wont buy anymore 12 pt polls any longer. Biden needs 278 to win, not 413

The natl polls arent even surveying NC and GA and TX

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1274796820477218816?s=21

[FlyoverCoast]

Defund The Police

Favorable 34%
Unfavorable 53%

[Joe Kakistocracy]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1274796820477218816?s=21

Well yes, as the raw number of Trump voters continues to dwindle, it leaves behind an increasing proportion of cultists literally willing to risk their lives to support him.

The ambivalence towards Biden is a reflection of the American public’s fervent desire to get rid of Trump by any means necessary no matter how bland the alternative.  And don’t forget that Biden voters now include a growing contingent of Republicans.

[ShamDam]

Defund The Police

Favorable 34%
Unfavorable 53%

Overton window be shiftin'