Final House Prediction 2020
Democrats: 226 (-8) (52.5%)
Republicans: 209 (+9) (47.0%)
I didn't spend as much time on this one as I had wanted too and the picture quality isn't great, but basically around what I predicted in 2018. I'm not sure how the Dems are going to gain seats when their popular vote margin is likely to be cut significantly from 2018, but that's the consensus. Color me skeptical. I'm likely to get a lot of these wrong, but I think I'll be around the right ballpark of seats if Dems win by about the 4-6% I expect nationwide.
Christ, this prediction probably wasn't Republican-friendly enough. Republicans are probably going to end up with over 210 members. This is actually the biggest failure of the election for Democrats, because if Joe Biden ends up winning it's now a lot easier for Republicans to gain the House in 2022.
The consensus among the expert class going into election day was that Dems would gain seats. I always thought that it never made sense how the GCB was supposed to narrower than 2018 but somehow Dems expand their majority - but that's what they believed. The polling for the House races too was abominable, just as I thought it was. Yet I was attacked constantly for pointing it out.
