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November 29, 2020, 05:43:18 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2020 House Predictions
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Author Topic: 2020 House Predictions  (Read 1517 times)
Jopow
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« on: June 19, 2020, 09:04:22 AM »

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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2020, 11:35:42 AM »

Lol no
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Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party
DANNT
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2020, 02:34:33 PM »

WOW, that is not happening.
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Jopow
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2020, 03:08:06 PM »

Why do you guys think it is far out? Which districts do you think should remain Democrat?
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Mike Madigan for Illinois House Speaker!
S019
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2020, 03:13:22 PM »


Kuster, McBath, Pappas, Davis, Allred, Fletcher, DeFazio, Schrier are for sure not losing. Bourdeaux, Underwood, Horsford, Lee, Slotkin, Gisneros, Cox, Malinowski, Delgado, Luria are all very, very questionable as well. Also Axne, Hart, Spanberger, Mucarsel-Powell, Rouda, McAdams are all favorites, but they could flip in a best-case scenario for the GOP, the first two tiers will be very hard to flip in this environment. Also I didn't even mention possible Dem pickup opportunities like IL-13, TX-22, or TX-24.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 09:12:34 PM »

Final House Prediction 2020



Democrats:  226 (-8) (52.5%)
Republicans: 209 (+9) (47.0%)

I didn't spend as much time on this one as I had wanted too and the picture quality isn't great, but basically around what I predicted in 2018. I'm not sure how the Dems are going to gain seats when their popular vote margin is likely to be cut significantly from 2018, but that's the consensus. Color me skeptical. I'm likely to get a lot of these wrong, but I think I'll be around the right ballpark of seats if Dems win by about the 4-6% I expect nationwide.
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Pericles
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 09:47:17 PM »

Ah good, there is a House prediction thread after all.
2020 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 248+15 53.2%(-0.2%)
Kevin McCarthy-Republican: 187-15 44.7%(-0.1%)
435 seats
218 for majority

Democrats gain AR-02, AZ-06, CA-25, GA-07, IN-05, MO-02, NC-02, NC-06, NE-02, NJ-02, NY-24, OH-01, TX-10, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24

Republicans gain MN-07 and NM-02
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2020, 07:25:55 AM »

Final House Prediction 2020



Democrats:  226 (-8) (52.5%)
Republicans: 209 (+9) (47.0%)

I didn't spend as much time on this one as I had wanted too and the picture quality isn't great, but basically around what I predicted in 2018. I'm not sure how the Dems are going to gain seats when their popular vote margin is likely to be cut significantly from 2018, but that's the consensus. Color me skeptical. I'm likely to get a lot of these wrong, but I think I'll be around the right ballpark of seats if Dems win by about the 4-6% I expect nationwide.

Christ, this prediction probably wasn't Republican-friendly enough. Republicans are probably going to end up with over 210 members. This is actually the biggest failure of the election for Democrats, because if Joe Biden ends up winning it's now a lot easier for Republicans to gain the House in 2022.

The consensus among the expert class going into election day was that Dems would gain seats. I always thought that it never made sense how the GCB was supposed to narrower than 2018 but somehow Dems expand their majority - but that's what they believed.  The polling for the House races too was abominable, just as I thought it was. Yet I was attacked constantly for pointing it out.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2020, 05:31:15 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2020, 05:35:52 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Don't feel bad www.electionprojection.com got it wrong too plus D7 seats
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