NC - Gravis/OANN: Trump +3%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/apblake/status/1273960612918448131
Sampling period: June 17, 2020
Sample size: 631 registered voters
MoE: 3.9%

Trump 46%
Biden 43%
Uncertain 10%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wow OAN even finds Trump doing worse than 2016

[Tender Branson]

Petition to ban OANN „polls“ for presumably being a fraud.

(X)

[EastOfEden]

If we assume OANN's polls are consistently R-skewed the same amount, then this could be as much as Biden +3 (see Florida).

[หมูเด้ง]

I can honestly see OAN being accurate if 2020 turns out to be a rehash of 2004 where Trump holds onto ground in most swing states, barely wins or ties the NPV by running up big numbers in certain swing states (like Bush did in Florida) and red states and perhaps winning holdouts from last time. There could be room for Biden winning back MI or PA, improving but not winning Arizona nor Minnesota.

OAN are basically polls you would expect if Trump wasn't a dumpster fire. This is where someone like Hawley or DeSantis (basically Trump if you swapped trade with the environment) would be right now.

If something like this happens,  I can see opposition parties trying to run harder downfalls on reelection years. Trump is the weakest incumbent you are ever going to get outside of one who wasn't originally elected or who is a placeholder from someone who can't run any more.

[W]

I'd say throw it in the average but hell no OANN shouldn't be 10 feet from the average.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden doesnt need NC, he just need to reassure the 278 EC map, Tillis may indeed survive, NC did vote R in 2012

[Sestak]

Gravis/OANN is a true power team.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Meh, I won't believe it until I hear it from Zogby/GatewayPundit.

[Roemerista]

Good enough for realclearpolitics polling average!

(This was a joke, and then I saw they actually put it in)

[pppolitics]

naturally, the hacks at RCP added the fake poll to their average

[wbrocks67]

naturally, the hacks at RCP added the fake poll to their average

The fact that they'll add an OAN/Gravis poll but not the dozens of other ones on a regular basis...

[Crumpets]

Now, is this the whole set of respondents or is this just respondents who first said they were undecided between being conservative republicans and moderate republicans or something?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Meh, I won't believe it until I hear it from Zogby/GatewayPundit.

I'll wait for McLOLghlin. 

[หมูเด้ง]

naturally, the hacks at RCP added the fake poll to their average

The numbers you are getting with RCP are probably accurate if Democrats stay home.

[Buzz]

Lean R states stays Lean R

[Brittain33]

Lean R states stays Lean R

96% approval with Republicans! Thank you!

[Buzz]

Lean R states stays Lean R

96% approval with Republicans! Thank you!

Great Honor!

[Sbane]

naturally, the hacks at RCP added the fake poll to their average

The fact that they'll add an OAN/Gravis poll but not the dozens of other ones on a regular basis...

RCP is a hack site. Always has been.

[Nyvin]

RCP actually did add this,  what garbage.

They still leave the Ipsos off with the double digit Biden lead plus a good number of others.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Trump can win NC

[Alben Barkley]

Lean R states stays Lean R

96% approval with Republicans! Thank you!

LOL SN is liking his posts. Are we sure that Buzz isn’t SN’s Southern alter ego?

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Even if we ignore that this is done by OANN, they chose Gravis, who time and time again has proven that they have no idea how to conduct proper polls. To uncreatively paraphrase our newest Republican hack poster, Tilt D state remains Tilt D. My guess is Biden wins this by 2-3, in the end, and I don't expect Trump to win it at this rate, however, I have a hard time moving a state like NC which has long been somewhat of a white whale for Democrats, following the 2008 election, into the Lean column, just yet. Also a poll run by Gravis plays no part in my calculations, and it shouldn't play any part in any serious poster's calculations either. Also another thing, I have a hard time seeing NC vote three points to the right of FL, in fact, I'm expecting NC to be left of FL, and I would not be shocked if Biden won this state, but lost FL, I would be shocked, if Biden won FL, but not NC.

[Alben Barkley]

naturally, the hacks at RCP added the fake poll to their average

The numbers you are getting with RCP are probably accurate if Democrats stay home.

OANN polls are straight up BS commissioned purely to stroke Trump’s ego. And even then the best they can get is a tie in Florida and a lead in NC weaker than what he won by last time. Even if the numbers somehow end up close to the end result, it would be pure coincidence. You are putting too much stock into them. AND with those margins, we’re seeing a 1-2 point D swing from 2016 which likely would be enough for a Biden win anyway.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You know this poll is bunk, not just because it's Gravis/OAN but because, in comparison to their Florida poll, Trump is somehow leading by less here. Under no circumstance do I see Florida voting to North Carolina's right this year.