NH-Saint Anselm's: Biden +7
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  NH-Saint Anselm's: Biden +7
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Author Topic: NH-Saint Anselm's: Biden +7  (Read 1445 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: June 18, 2020, 05:26:47 PM »

https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/june-poll-saint-anselm-college-survey-center-reveals-pessimism-and

Biden - 49
Trump - 42

Trump JA is 43-57.

These guys had Biden +8 (50-42) in late April.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2020, 05:28:08 PM »

Great honer, thank you angry women of New Hampshire!
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2020, 05:30:36 PM »

With those job approval numbers there is every reason to believe Biden will end up winning by double digits.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2020, 05:33:28 PM »

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #4 on: June 18, 2020, 05:36:05 PM »

Notable that they have Biden leading 51-41 in NH-01 and only up 47-44 in NH-02 with large subsamples. Suburban and rural shifts accelerating?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #5 on: June 18, 2020, 05:57:07 PM »

NH is definitely trending rightward long-term.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2020, 06:40:30 PM »

I remember during the Primary Trump was tied in NH, how things have changed
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2020, 08:30:54 PM »

Damn LIMO... hitting it out of the ballpark in 2020 when it comes to the PRES polling thread!

You've come a long way over the past few years....   Smiley
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2020, 08:39:49 PM »

So unrated by 538?

Anyone want to jump in and look at this Uni Poll's history?

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Pollster
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« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2020, 10:49:27 PM »

The NH-02 subsample looks considerably more GOP-friendly than all signs suggest it would be in this national environment. Unless its a sign of region-specific trends, entirely possible that this poll is understating Biden's margin.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: June 20, 2020, 01:17:55 PM »

NH is definitely trending rightward long-term.

This seems to be the conventional wisdom for some reason, but I still don’t get why people are so convinced that this is actually the case. This is a state where Republicans are disproportionately reliant on winning some of the most populous suburban/exurban areas by lopsided margins (a prospect which was already tenuous even before Trump's presidency and is almost unattainable now), holding their own in affluent areas, and breaking through some of the most Democratic rural areas in the country (which have been much more resitant to national trends than other rural areas with similar demographics), to name only a few things. There’s a reason Republicans have been shut out at the federal level since 2012 even as other Obama/Trump states like IA, OH, WI, and ME-02 already showed signs of cracking in 2014, and if our current alignment continues, there’s virtually no reason to expect NH to become a solid Republican state in the near future. Maybe its trend will remain stable, but even then I’m pretty sure it would take a Republican wave year (or at least a very good year) for them to actually score a win in a Senate/presidential race here. Even Sununu's win wasn’t that impressive; Baker, Scott, and even Hogan (!) won by more than him.

Of all the "swing states", this one and GA will probably be the trickiest for the GOP to figure out IMO.
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