Fox News: Biden +12

[VAR]

Trump approval in this poll is 44%, but gets 38% of vote against Biden.

On the flip side: Trump's disapproval is 55, but Biden is at 50.

Election matchup polls have rather consistently shown Trump underperforming his approval rating.  My guess is that some people like at least some things the Trump administration does, but they're tired of Trump's character and chaos and are ready for a change.

No. That means Trump will get at least 44% of the vote when undecideds... decide.

[riceowl]

You’d better retract this one too, Fox News! 

Oh yeah where the cease and desist at??

[FlyoverCoast]

Trump approval in this poll is 44%, but gets 38% of vote against Biden.

On the flip side: Trump's disapproval is 55, but Biden is at 50.

Election matchup polls have rather consistently shown Trump underperforming his approval rating.  My guess is that some people like at least some things the Trump administration does, but they're tired of Trump's character and chaos and are ready for a change.

No. That means Trump will get at least 44% of the vote when undecideds... decide.

Another interpretation could be that more people who approve of Trump will stay home. If they approve of his job, but still won't say commit to vote for him while being polled might mean they won't commit to going to the polls in Nov.

[VAR]

Trump approval in this poll is 44%, but gets 38% of vote against Biden.

On the flip side: Trump's disapproval is 55, but Biden is at 50.

Election matchup polls have rather consistently shown Trump underperforming his approval rating.  My guess is that some people like at least some things the Trump administration does, but they're tired of Trump's character and chaos and are ready for a change.

No. That means Trump will get at least 44% of the vote when undecideds... decide.

Another interpretation could be that more people who approve of Trump will stay home. If they approve of his job, but still won't say commit to vote for him while being polled might mean they won't commit to going to the polls in Nov.

That’s true. Some disapprovers might do the same.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Not all that different from the July 2016 Fox poll that had Clinton up +10
Clinton 49
Trump 39

Just like there wouldn’t have been much difference between Clinton +2 and Clinton +4 on Election Day?

[GeorgiaModerate]

This makes a ton of sense:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1273758088496132100

[ON Progressive]

This makes a ton of sense:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1273758088496132100

I'm actually confused here. It seems like those two should be synonyms.

[kph14]

Crosstabs can be a bit wonky and I don't know how they define "urban" but there is no chance that Trump's approval is 43% in urban areas

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This makes a ton of sense:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1273758088496132100

I'm actually confused here. It seems like those two should be synonyms.

Yeah, they *should* be, but that doesn't mean people responding will actually react to them the same way.

It's like ages ago when some pollsters would ask about "gay marriage" and others would ask about "homosexual marriage". There was an identifiable pattern that the first phrasing generally drew fewer negative responses, even though you are talking about literally the exact same thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's Nate's explanation of why he thinks there's a distinction:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1273771582188589056

[Alben Barkley]

I honestly can’t even imagine looking at this poll as a Trump supporter and still deluding myself into thinking he’s somehow the favorite. Then again, I can’t imagine why Trump supporters do or believe almost anything they do.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is finished, Biden is gonna win TX, and that will be that

[NOVA Green]

Trump approval in this poll is 44%, but gets 38% of vote against Biden.

Welcome to the Forum FlyoverCoast!

[NOVA Green]

Trump approval in this poll is 44%, but gets 38% of vote against Biden.

On the flip side: Trump's disapproval is 55, but Biden is at 50.

Election matchup polls have rather consistently shown Trump underperforming his approval rating.  My guess is that some people like at least some things the Trump administration does, but they're tired of Trump's character and chaos and are ready for a change.

No. That means Trump will get at least 44% of the vote when undecideds... decide.

Welcome to the Forum VARepublican!

[The Mikado]

No. That means Trump will get at least 44% of the vote when undecideds... decide.

I'd definitely take the over on an over/under on Trump's final PV total being 44%. But 44% isn't much to brag about in a year with negligible 3rd party voting like 2020 looks to be. 54/44 would be a pretty huge catastrophe for the GOP.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm sure Trump only watches OANN at this point

According to the new WSJ interview, he apparently still reads the Washington Post.

Yeah, we all know Trump doesn't read

[NOVA Green]

I'm sure Trump only watches OANN at this point

According to the new WSJ interview, he apparently still reads the Washington Post.

Yeah, we all know Trump doesn't read

Pretty sure he gets the "Readers Digest" version from his sycophants...

Still--- Pretty decent poll for Biden from a reputable polling outfit, despite the *FOX* branding....

[FlyoverCoast]

Trump approval in this poll is 44%, but gets 38% of vote against Biden.

Welcome to the Forum FlyoverCoast!

Thanks! Just found this forum last week and finally made an account!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Not all that different from the July 2016 Fox poll that had Clinton up +10
Clinton 49
Trump 39

Lies. The two Fox polls in June had Clinton up 3 and 6 respectively (with way lower raw %).

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-clinton-up-by-6-points-89-percent-say-hot-headed-describes-trump

He did say July. As in, the last week of July. As in, right at the height of HRC's convention bump.

The 2016 DNC had one of the biggest and longest lasting convention bumps. Hillary's lead went up the high single digits and it lasted 3 weeks. It looked so dire for Trump in early August, that the Russians were close to stop backing Trump as it looked like he was a lost cause.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1273749834181246976?s=21

This is not 2016 y'all.

I mean, the last week has felt like "This is 2018" fervor on this forum

[Landslide Lyndon]

No. That means Trump will get at least 44% of the vote when undecideds... decide.

I'd definitely take the over on an over/under on Trump's final PV total being 44%. But 44% isn't much to brag about in a year with negligible 3rd party voting like 2020 looks to be. 54/44 would be a pretty huge catastrophe for the GOP.

Exactly. It would be 1980 redux.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, another double digit outlier.

What concerns me a little is the enthusiasm gap, but I think it does matter very much this time. A vote for Biden to get rid of the orange clown counts as much as an enthusiastic vote for Biden himself. If Dems are successful in turning out enough voters for either reason, Trump will lose. And it won't be that close.

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, another double digit outlier.

What concerns me a little is the enthusiasm gap, but I think it does matter very much this time. A vote for Biden to get rid of the orange clown counts as much as an enthusiastic vote for Biden himself. If Dems are successful in turning out enough voters for either reason, Trump will lose. And it won't be that close.

I mean... but a vote "against Trump" could be even more enthusiastic than a "vote for Biden", so we don't know.

Plus it's a bad question, too. It can be more nuanced than that. I mean, I don't LOVE Biden, but I do really like him. But honestly, I still hate Trump SO MUCH that I think I'd personally pick "against Trump" even though I do like Biden and am enthusiastic about voting for him.

[MillennialModerate]

Trump is finished, Biden is gonna win TX, and that will be that

Do you have Venmo? Friendly wager?....

(hint: I’d rather lose the money. To see a Dem win Texas would be surrreal)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once we get our nominee for Senate, it will get competetive Royce White has a better chance than Hegar. The last polls had Trump tied with Biden in TX