McCain and Blue Dogs (2010, 2012 election: process and results)

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I will write a new TL, similar to my old "2020 Senate election: process and results", only more expanded and improved about the 2010 and 2012 elections

So, first:

Prologue

Importnat change from real life
* - incumbent

2002 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election
Democratic primary
Bob Casey Jr. 52.61%
Ed Rendell 47.39%

General election
Bob Casey Jr. (D) 56.34%
Mike Fisher (R) 41.02%
Democratic gain

2006 Pennsylvania Senate election
Bob Casey Jr. decided to run for Senate against Republican Rick Santorum under pressure from many local and national figures of Democratic party. All polls showed that he was only Democrat who could beat Santorum
Bob Casey Jr. approval: 72% Approve, 20% Disapprove

Bob Casey Jr. (D) 61.23%
Rick Santorum* (R) 37.95%
Democratic gain

2006 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election

Ed Rendell 56.59%
Lynn Swann 42.41%
Democratic hold

2008 Presidential election results

Final Obama's VP shortlist included three candidates: U.S. Senator from Delaware Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Indiana
and former Governor Evan Bayh, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania and former Governor Bob Casey Jr.. He chose Casey

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Sen. John Thune (R-SD) 273 EVs; 46.8% PV
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA) 265 EVs; 49.9% PV

Next post: 2008 Senate and House results, McCain inauguration and Cabinet

I plan to start the main part of TL after 2-3 more posts

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2008 Senate elections

Democrats: 56 (+5)
Republicans: 44 (-5)

D gain: CO, NH, NM, NC, VA

Competitive races results (decided by less than 10%):

Alaska
Ted Stevens* (R) 47.89%
Mark Begich (D) 46.28%
Republican hold

Colorado
Mark Udall (D) 49.85%
Bob Schaffer (R) 44.28%
Democratic gain

Georgia
Saxby Chambliss* (R) 51.38%
Jim Martin (D) 45.23%
Republican hold

Kentucky
Mitch McConnell* (R) 54.62%
Bruce Lunsford (D) 45.38%
Republican hold

Louisiana
Mary Landrieu* (D) 50.12%
John Neely Kennedy (R) 48.77%
Democratic hold

Minnesota
Norm Coleman* (R) 43.87%
Al Franken (D) 41.03%
Republican hold

New Hampshire
Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49.15%
John Sununu* (R) 48.67%
Democratic gain

North Carolina
Kay Hagan (D) 50.16%
Elizabeth Dole* (R) 47.09%
Democratic gain

Oregon
Gordon Smith* (R) 47.32%
Jeff Merkley (D) 47.29%
Republican hold

2008 House elections

Democrats: 241 (+5)
Republicans: 194 (-5)

AL-01: Jo Bonner* (R)
AL-02: Jay Love (R)
AL-03: Mike Rogers* (R)
AL-04: Robert Aderholt* (R)
AL-05: Wayne Parker (R)
AL-06: Spencer Bachus* (R)
AL-07: Artur Davis* (D)

AK-AL: Don Young* (R)

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
AZ-02: Trent Franks* (R)
AZ-03: John Shadegg* (R)
AZ-04: Ed Pastor* (D)
AZ-05: Harry Mitchell* (D)
AZ-06: Jeff Flake* (R)
AZ-07: Raul Grijalva* (D)
AZ-08: Gabrielle Giffords* (D)

AR-01: Marion Berry* (D)
AR-02: Vic Snyder* (D)
AR-03: John Boozman* (R)
AR-04: Mike Ross* (D)

CA-01: Mike Thompson* (D)
CA-02: Wally Herger* (R)
CA-03: Dan Lungren* (R)
CA-04: Tom McClintock (R)
CA-05: Doris Matsui* (D)
CA-06: Lynn Woolsey* (D)
CA-07: George Miller* (D)
CA-08: Nancy Pelosi* (D)
CA-09: Barbara Lee* (D)
CA-10: Ellen Tauscher* (D)
CA-11: Jerry McNerney* (D)
CA-12: Jackie Speier* (D)
CA-13: Pete Stark* (D)
CA-14: Anna Eshoo* (D)
CA-15: Mike Honda* (D)
CA-16: Zoe Lofgren* (D)
CA-17: Sam Farr* (D)
CA-18: Dennis Cardoza* (D)
CA-19: George Radanovich* (R)
CA-20: Jim Costa* (D)
CA-21: Devin Nunes* (R)
CA-22: Kevin McCarthy* (R)
CA-23: Lois Capps* (D)
CA-24: Elton Gallegly* (R)
CA-25: Howard McKeon* (R)
CA-26: David Dreier* (R)
CA-27: Brad Sherman* (D)
CA-28: Howard Berman* (D)
CA-29: Adam Schiff* (D)
CA-30: Henry Waxman* (D)
CA-31: Xavier Becerra* (D)
CA-32: Hilda Solis* (D)
CA-33: Diane Watson* (D)
CA-34: Lucille Royball-Allard* (D)
CA-35: Maxine Waters* (D)
CA-36: Jane Harman* (D)
CA-37: Laura Richardson* (D)
CA-38: Grace Napolitano* (D)
CA-39: Linda Sanchez* (D)
CA-40: Ed Royce* (R)
CA-41: Jerry Lewis* (R)
CA-42: Garry Miller* (R)
CA-43: Joe Baca* (D)
CA-44: Ken Calvert* (R)
CA-45: Mary Bono* (R)
CA-46: Dana Rohrabacher* (R)
CA-47: Loretta Sanchez* (D)
CA-48: John Campbell* (R)
CA-49: Darrell Issa* (R)
CA-50: Brian Bilbray* (R)
CA-51: Bob Filner* (D)
CA-52: Duncan D. Hunter (R)
CA-53: Susan Davis* (D)

CO-01: Diana DeGette* (D)
CO-02: Jared Polis (D)
CO-03: John Salazar* (D)
CO-04: Betsy Markey (D)
CO-05: Doug Lamborn* (R)
CO-06: Mike Coffman (R)
CO-07: Ed Perlmutter* (D)

CT-01: John Larson* (D)
CT-02: Joe Courtney* (D)
CT-03: Rosa DeLauro* (D)
CT-04: Chris Shays* (R)
CT-05: Chris Murphy* (D)

DE-AL: Mike Castle* (R)

FL-01: Jeff Miller* (R)
FL-02: Allen Boyd* (D)
FL-03: Corrine Brown* (D)
FL-04: Ander Crenshaw* (R)
FL-05: Ginny Brown-Waite* (R)
FL-06: Cliff Stearns* (R)
FL-07: John Mica* (R)
FL‐08: Ric Keller* (R)
FL-09: Gus Bilirakis* (R)
FL-10: Bill Young* (R)
FL-11: Kathy Castor* (D)
FL-12: Adam Putnam* (R)
FL-13: Vern Buchanan* (R)
FL-14: Connie Mack IV* (R)
FL-15: Bill Posey (R)
FL-16: Tom Rooney (R)
FL‐17: Kendrick Meek* (D)
FL-18: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen* (R)
FL-19: Robert Wexler* (D)
FL-20: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz* (D)
FL-21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart* (R)
FL-22: Ron Klein* (D)
FL-23: Alcee Hastings* (D)
FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas (D)
FL-25: Mario Diaz-Balart* (R)

GA-01: Jack Kingston* (R)
GA-02: Sanford Bishop* (D)
GA-03: Lynn Westmoreland* (R)
GA-04: Hank Johnson* (D)
GA-05: John Lewis* (D)
GA-06: Tom Price* (R)
GA-07: John Linder* (R)
GA-08: Jim Marshall* (D)
GA-09: Nathan Deal* (R)
GA-10: Paul Broun* (R)
GA-11: Phil Gingrey* (R)
GA-12: John Barrow* (D)
GA-13: David Scott* (D)

HI-01: Neil Abercrombie* (D)
HI-02: Mazie Hirono* (D)

ID-01: Bill Sali* (R)
ID-02: Mike Simpson* (R)

IL-01: Bobby Rush* (D)
IL-02: Jesse Jackson Jr.* (D)
IL-03: Dan Lipinski* (D)
IL-04: Luis Gutierrez* (D)
IL-05: Rahm Emanuel* (D)
IL-06: Peter Roskam* (R)
IL-07: Danny Davis* (D)
IL-08: Melissa Bean* (D)
IL-09: Jan Schakowsky* (D)
IL-10: Mark Kirk* (R)
IL-11: Debbie Halvorson (D)
IL-12: Jerry Costello* (D)
IL-13: Judy Biggert* (R)
IL-14: Bill Foster* (D)
IL-15: Tim Johnson* (R)
IL-16: Donald Manzullo* (R)
IL-17: Phil Hare* (D)
IL-18: Aaron Schock (R)
IL-19: John Schimkus* (R)

IN-01: Pete Visclosky* (D)
IN-02: Joe Donnelly* (D)
IN-03: Mark Souder* (R)
IN-04: Steve Buyer* (R)
IN-05: Dan Burton* (R)
IN-06: Mike Pence* (R)
IN-07: Andre Carson* (D)
IN-08: Brad Ellsworth* (D)
IN-09: Baron Hill* (D)

IA-01: Bruce Braley* (D)
IA-02: Dave Loebsack* (D)
IA-03: Leonard Boswell* (D)
IA-04: Tom Latham* (R)
IA-05: Steve King* (R)

KS-01: Jerry Moran* (R)
KS-02: Lynn Jenkins (R)
KS-03: Dennis Moore* (D)
KS-04: Todd Tiahrt* (R)

KY-01: Ed Whitfield* (R)
KY-02: Brett Guthrie (R)
KY-03: John Yarmuth* (D)
KY-04: Geoff Davis* (R)
KY-05: Hal Rogers* (R)
KY-06: Ben Chandler* (D)

LA-01: Steve Scalise* (R)
LA-02: Joseph Cao (R)
LA-03: Charlie Melancon* (D)
LA-04: Jeff Fleming (R)
LA-05: Rodney Alexander* (R)
LA-06: Bill Cassidy (R)
LA-07: Charles Boustany* (R)

ME-01: Chellie Pingree (D)
ME-02: Mike Michaud* (D)

MD-01: Andy Harris (R)
MD-02: Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
MD-03: John Sarbanes (D)
MD-04: Donna Edwards (D)
MD-05: Steny Hoyer (D)
MD-06: Roscoe Bartlett (R)
MD-07: Elijah Cummings (D)
MD-08: Chris Van Hollen (D)

MA-01: John Olver (D)
MA-02: Richard Neal (D)
MA-03: Jim McGovern (D)
MA-04: Barney Frank (D)
MA-05: Niki Tsongas (D)
MA-06: John Tierney (D)
MA-07: Ed Markey (D)
MA-08: Mike Capuano (D)
MA-09: Stephen Lynch (D)
MA-10: Bill Delahunt (D)

MI-01: Bart Stupak* (D)
MI-02: Pete Hoekstra* (R)
MI-03: Vern Ehlers* (R)
MI-04: Dave Camp* (R)
MI-05: Dale Kildee* (D)
MI-06: Fred Upton* (R)
MI-07: Tim Walberg* (R)
MI-08: Mike Rogers* (R)
MI-09: Gary Peters (D)
MI-10: Candice Miller* (R)
MI-11: Thad McCotter* (R)
MI-12: Sander Levin* (D)
MI-13: Carolyn Kilpatrick* (D)
MI-14: John Conyers* (D)
MI-15: John Dingell* (D)

MN-01: Tim Walz* (D)
MN-02: John Kline* (R)
MN-03: Erik Paulsen (R)
MN-04: Betty McCollum* (D)
MN-05: Keith Ellison* (D)
MN-06: Michelle Bachmann* (R)
MN-07: Collin Peterson* (D)
MN-08: Jim Oberstar* (D)

MS-01: Travis Childers* (D)
MS-02: Bennie Thompson* (D)
MS-03: Gregg Harper (R)
MS-04: Gene Taylor* (D)

MO-01: Lacy Clay* (D)
MO-02: Todd Akin* (R)
MO-03: Russ Carnahan* (D)
MO-04: Ike Skelton* (D)
MO-05: Emanuel Cleaver* (D)
MO-06: Sam Graves* (R)
MO-07: Roy Blunt* (R)
MO-08: Jo Ann Emerson* (R)
MO-09: Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)

MT-AL: Denny Rehberg* (R)

NE-01: Jeff Fortenberry* (R)
NE-02: Lee Terry* (R)
NE-03: Adrian Smith* (R)

NV-01: Shelley Berkley* (D)
NV-02: Dean Heller* (R)
NV-03: Jon Porter* (R)

NH-01: Jeb Bradley (R)
NH-02: Paul Hodes* (D)

NJ-01: Rob Andrews* (D)
NJ-02: Frank LoBiondo* (R)
NJ-03: Chris Myers (R)
NJ-04: Chris Smith* (R)
NJ-05: Scott Garrett* (R)
NJ-06: Frank Pallone* (D)
NJ-07: Leonard Lance (R)
NJ-08: Bill Pascrell* (D)
NJ-09: Steve Rotham* (D)
NJ-10: Don Payne* (D)
NJ-11: Rodney Frelinghuysen* (R)
NJ-12: Rush Holt Jr.* (D)
NJ-13: Albio Sires* (D)

NM-01: Martin Heinrich (D)
NM-02: Harry Teague (D)
NM-03: Ben Ray Lujan (D)

NY-01: Tim Bishop* (D)
NY-02: Steve Israel* (D)
NY-03: Peter King* (R)
NY-04: Carolyn McCarthy* (D)
NY-05: Gary Ackerman* (D)
NY-06: Gregory Meeks* (D)
NY-07: Joe Crowley* (D)
NY-08: Jerry Nadler* (D)
NY-09: Anthony Weiner* (D)
NY-10: Es Towns* (D)
NY-11: Yvette Clarke* (D)
NY-12: Nydia Velazquez* (D)
NY-13: Michael McMahon (D)
NY-14: Carolyn Maloney* (D)
NY-15: Charles Rangel* (D)
NY-16: Jose Serrano* (D)
NY-17: Eliot Engel* (D)
NY-18: Nita Lowey* (D)
NY-19: John Hall* (D)
NY-20: Kirsten Gillibrand* (D)
NY-21: Paul Tonko (D)
NY-22: Maurice Hinchey* (D)
NY-23: John McHugh* (R)
NY-24: Richard Hanna (R)
NY-25: Dan Maffei (D)
NY-26: Christopher Lee (R)
NY-27: Brian Higgins* (D)
NY-28: Louise Slaughter* (D)
NY-29: Randy Kuhl (R)

NC-01: G.K. Butterfield* (D)
NC-02: Bob Etheridge* (D)
NC-03: Walter Jones Jr.* (R)
NC-04: David Price* (D)
NC-05: Virginia Foxx* (R)
NC-06: Howard Coble* (R)
NC-07: Mike McIntyre* (D)
NC-08: Larry Kissell (D)
NC-09: Sue Myrick* (R)
NC-10: Patrick McHenry* (R)
NC-11: Health Shuler* (D)
NC-12: Mel Watt* (D)
NC-13: Brad Miller* (D)

ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy* (D)

OH-01: Steve Chabot* (R)
OH-02: Jean Schmidt* (R)
OH-03: Mike Turner* (R)
OH-04: Jim Jordan* (R)
OH-05: Bob Latta* (R)
OH-06: Charlie Wilson* (D)
OH-07: Steve Austria (R)
OH-08: John Boehner* (R)
OH-09: Marcy Kaptur* (D)
OH-10: Dennis Kucinich* (D)
OH-11: Marcia Fudge (D)
OH-12: Pat Tiberi* (R)
OH-13: Betty Sutton* (D)
OH-14: Steve LaTourette* (R)
OH-15: Steve Stivers (R)
OH-16: John Boccieri (D)
OH-17: Tim Ryan* (D)
OH-18: Zack Space* (D)

OK-01: John Sullivan* (R)
OK-02: Dan Boren* (D)
OK-03: Frank Lucas* (R)
OK-04: Tom Cole* (R)
OK-05: Mary Fallin* (R)

OR-01: David Wu* (D)
OR-02: Greg Walden* (R)
OR-03: Earl Blumenauer* (D)
OR-04: Peter DeFazio* (D)
OR-05: Kurt Schrader (D)

PA-01: Bob Brady* (D)
PA-02: Chaka Fattah* (D)
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper (D)
PA-04: Jason Altmire* (D)
PA-05: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-06: Jim Gerlach* (R)
PA-07: Joe Sestak* (D)
PA-08: Patrick Murphy* (D)
PA-09: Bill Shuster* (R)
PA-10: Chris Carney* (D)
PA-11: Paul Kanjorski* (D)
PA-12: John Murtha* (D)
PA-13: Allyson Schwartz* (D)
PA-14: Mike Doyle* (D)
PA-15: Charlie Dent* (R)
PA-16: Joe Pitts* (R)
PA-17: Tim Holden* (D)
PA-18: Tim Murphy* (R)
PA-19: Todd Platts* (R)

RI-01: Patrick Kennedy* (D)
RI-02: Jim Langevin* (D)

SC-01: Henry Brown* (R)
SC-02: Joe Wilson* (R)
SC-03: Gresham Barrett* (R)
SC-04: Bob Inglis* (R)
SC-05: John Spratt* (D)
SC-06: Jim Clyburn* (D)

SD-AL: Stephanie Herserh Sandlin* (D)

TN-01: Phil Roe (R)
TN-02: Jimmy Duncan* (R)
TN-03: Zach Wamp* (R)
TN-04: Lincoln Davis* (D)
TN-05: Jim Cooper* (D)
TN-06: Bart Gordon* (D)
TN-07: Marsha Blackburn* (R)
TN-08: John Tanner* (D)
TN-09: Steve Cohen* (D)

TX-01: Louie Gohmert* (R)
TX-02: Ted Poe* (R)
TX-03: Sam Johnson* (R)
TX-04: Ralph Hall* (R)
TX-05: Jeb Hensarling* (R)
TX-06: Joe Barton* (R)
TX-07: John Culberson* (R)
TX-08: Kevin Brady* (R)
TX-09: Al Green* (D)
TX-10: Michael McMaul* (R)
TX-11: Mike Conaway* (R)
TX-12: Kay Granger* (R)
TX-13: Mac Thornberry* (R)
TX-14: Ron Paul* (R)
TX-15: Ruben Hinojosa* (D)
TX-16: Silvestre Reyes* (D)
TX-17: Chet Edwards* (D)
TX-18: Sheila Jackson Lee* (D)
TX-19: Randy Neugebauer* (R)
TX-20: Charlie Gonzalez* (D)
TX-21: Lamar Smith* (R)
TX-22: Pete Olson (R)
TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez* (D)
TX-24: Kenny Marchant* (R)
TX-25: Lloyd Doggett* (D)
TX-26: Michael Burgess* (R)
TX-27: Solomon Ortiz* (D)
TX-28: Henry Cuellar* (D)
TX-29: Gene Green* (D)
TX-30: Eddie Bernice Johnson* (D)
TX-31: John Carter* (R)
TX-32: Pete Sessions* (R)

UT-01: Rob Bishop* (R)
UT-02: Jim Matheson* (D)
UT-03: Jason Chaffetz (R)

VT-AL: Peter Welch (D)

VA-01: Rob Wittman (R)
VA-02: Thelma Darke (R)
VA-03: Bobby Scott (D)
VA-04: Randy Forbes (R)
VA-05: Virgil Goode (R)
VA-06: Bob Goodlatte (R)
VA-07: Eric Cantor (R)
VA-08: Jim Moran (D)
VA-09: Rick Boucher (D)
VA-10: Frank Wolf (R)
VA-11: Gerry Connolly (D)

WA-01: Jay Inslee (D)
WA-02: Rick Larsen (D)
WA-03: Brian Baird (D)
WA-04: Doc Hastings (R)
WA-05: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
WA-06: Norm Dicks (D)
WA-07: Jim McDermott (D)
WA-08: Dave Reichert (R)
WA-09: Adam Smith (D)

WV-01: Allan Mollohan (D)
WV-02: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
WV-03: Nick Rahall (D)

WI-01: Paul Ryan (R)
WI-02: Tammy Baldwin (D)
WI-03: Ron Kind (D)
WI-04: Gwen Moore (D)
WI-05: Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
WI-06: Tom Petri (R)
WI-07: Dave Obey (D)
WI-08: Steve Kagen (D)

WY-AL: Cynthia Lummis (R)

The closest race PA-11:
Paul Kanjorski (D, inc.) 97,237 votes; 50.002%
Lou Barletta (R) 97,229 votes 49.998%

2008 Gubernatorial elections

Races decided by less than 10%:

North Carolina
Pat McCrory (R) 48.97%
Bev Perdue (D) 48.81%
Republican gain

[😥]

20th January 2009

John Sidney McCain III inaugurated as 44th President of the United States

Cabinet of John McCain

President: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Vice President: Sen. John Thune (R-SD)

Secretary of State: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)
Secretary of the Treasury: Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Secretary of Defense: Gen. David Petraeus (I-NY)
Attorney General: Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA)
Secretary of the Interior: Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM)
Secretary of Agriculture: Fmr. Gov. Terry Branstad (R-IA)
Secretary of Commerce: Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH)
Secretary of Labor: Sec. Elaine Chao (R-KY)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Fmr. Rep. J.C. Watts (R-OK)
Secretary of Transportation: Rep. Ray LaHood (R-IL)
Secretary of Energy: Deputy Secretary Clay Sell (R-TX)
Secretary of Education: Fmr. Deputy Sec. Raymond Simon (R-AR)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Fmr. Sen. Max Cleland (D-GA)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

This Cabinet will create 2 Senate special elections, in Connecticut and in South Carolina

AZ-Sen special election 2010 = regular election
NH-Sen special election 2010 = regular election
SD-Sen special election 2010 = regular election

CT-Sen special election 2010 (I Class)
SC-Sen special election 2010 (II Class)

And will create 4 special elections to House of Representatives:

CA-03 special election
NM-01 special election
FL-18 special election (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen appointed as CIA Director)


December 11th, 2009: Governor of Arizona Janet Napolitano appointed former Chief of Staff to McCain and former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods, moderate Republican, to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate. He will serve until 2010 regular Senate election

January 28th, 2009: Governor of South Dakota Mike Rounds appointed former Speaker of South Dakota HoR Matt Michels (R) to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate. Rounds wanted to appoint Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard, but he declined to serve as U.S. Senator and declared his candidacy for Governor in 2010. He will serve until regular election in 2010

February 2nd, 2009: Governor of Rhode Island Jodi Rell appointed Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele (R) to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate, which was created after Joe Lieberman's resignation to became U.S. Secretary of State. This seat was previously held by Democrat, so Senate balance now 55-45 D. Fedele will serve until 2010 special Senate race

February 8th, 2009: Governor of South Carolina Mark Sanford appointed U.S. Representative Bob inglis (R) to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate, which was created after Lindsey Graham's resignation to become Secretary of Homeland Security. He will serve until 2010 special Senate race

February 18th, 2009: Governor of New Hampshire John Lynch appointed New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate. It was compromise between him and outgoing Senator Judd Gregg, who declined to leave the Senate if his successor will be Democrat

CA-03 special election will held on 7th April, 2009 (Rating: Lean D (pick-up))

NM-01 special election will held on 31st March, 2009 Rating: Likely D (pick-up

FL-18 special election will held on 7th April, 2009 Tossup


February 13th, 2009: Senator Bob Casey Jr. from Pennsylvania, who was 2008 Democratic nominee for Vice President, met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senators Kent Conrad, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln, Governors Joe Manchin and Brad Henry, Representatives Ike Skelton, Collin Peterson, Solomon Ortiz , Jim Oberstar, Nick Rahall, John Tanner, Gene Taylor, Kathy Dahlkemper and Dan Lipinski. It is still unknown what was discussed at the meeting.

Politico: "Conservative Democrats are trying to find their way further"

Washington Post: "Bob Casey Jr. Tries to Find Allies for His Potential 2012 Campaign"

New York Times: "Blue Dogs Meeting. Main question: who will be their candidate for 2012?


February 14th, 2009
Harry Reid: "Obama lost because he was too socially liberal for United States"

February 15th, 2009
Joe Manchin: "We [Democrats] always will lose in presidential elections, if we continue to move to the left on social issues"

February 18th, 2099
Ike Skelton: "We will fight for strong social conservatism in our [Democratic] party"

[😥]

McCain's main priorities

After taking office, President McCain announced that his main priorities would be two reforms: immigration and campaign finance reform. His spokesman also announced that the President himself would focus on foreign policy and security issues, and that domestic policy would be taken care of by Vice President Thune.

In his first 100 days as president, President McCain has spent 44 days abroad, mostly in Iraq and Afghanistan.

On June 1, 2009, McCain announced that the contingent in Afghanistan would be reduced by 10%, while the US military contingent in Iraq would be increased by 8%. U.S. Senate voted to increase defense spending.

In the United States, the recession continued and unemployment rose. As of June 2009, the unemployment rate was 11.7 percent. In the Senate, was passed Job Creation Act, which was heavily sponsored by McCain's administration. YEA voted 51 Senators, NAY voted 48 Senators and Sen. Ted Kennedy was absent. All Republicans, except Olympia Snow, voted for it, while 48 Democrats voted against it. 7 Democratic Senators (from red states) also supported this legislation.


June 29th, 2009: Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States David Souter resigned

July 27th, 2009: Senate confirmed Consuelo Callahan as new Associate Justice of SCOTUS

Consuelo Callahan served as Judge of the San Joaquin County Superior Court from 1992 to 1996, then she was appointed by Governor Pete Wilson to the California Court of Appeal for the Third District, where she served until 2003, when President George W. Bush appointed her to United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit

77 Senators voted for her confirmation, while 22 voted against. All Republicans with 32 Democrats voted YEA

Senator Bob Casey Jr. from Pennsylvania met for the second time with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senators Kent Conrad, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln, Governors Joe Manchin and Brad Henry, Representatives Ike Skelton, Collin Peterson, Solomon Ortiz, Jim Oberstar, Nick Rahall, John Tanner, Gene Taylor, Kathy Dahlkemper and Dan Lipinski

Solomon Ortiz: "Yes, we talked about the 2012 election. We want to have a single candidate. It will definitely not be me. I think that from our, so to speak, faction will run Evan Bayh, Bob Casey, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Manchin or Collin Peterson »

John Tanner: "We have decided to focus on electing Socially Conservative Democrats in 2010 and 2012."

Bob Casey: "I am now seriously considering the possibility of running in 2012, but there will definitely be a single candidate from our faction."

Evan Bayh: "I see an opportunity to run in 2012, but if Bob [Casey Jr.] is running, I will stay in the Senate."

Joe Manchin: "I love my job. I want to be governor of West Virginia. I will not run for president in 2012. This is an official statement."

31st March 2010
NM-01 special election result
Martin Heinrich (D) 61.29%
Darren White (R) 36.56%
Democratic gain

7th April 2010
CA-03 special election result
Ami Bera (D) 53.27%
Doug Ose (R) 44.10%
Democratic gain

FL-18 special election result
Brune Barreiro (R) 49.18%
Scott Fuhrman (D) 48.42%
Republican hold

15th June 2020

Approval rating of President McCain
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 46%

Approval rating of Vice President Thune
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 44%

Counrty direction
Right direction 41%
Wrong direction 54%

[😥]

Early Senate races analysis. Part I

Alabama

Declared candidates:
Richard Shelby* (R)

Incumbent Richard Shelby (R) is seeking reelection for a fifth term. He was reelected with 67.55% in 2004. He is expected to win in landslide. No one from Democratic Party declared their candidacy. President McCain is very popular in Alabama, same as Senator Shelby

McCain's approval: 65-29 (+36)
Shelby's approval: 62-32 (+30)
Rating: Safe R

Alaska

Declared candidates:
Lisa Murkowski* (R)
Joe Miller (R)
Scott McAdams (D)
David Haase (L)

Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) is running for a second full term. She was elected in 2004 with 48.60%. In 2002 Lisa was appointed to U.S. Senate by her father, Frank, who resigned from Senate to become Governor. Incumbent Senator is close ally of President McCain, he endorsed her campaign immediately after she decided to run again

South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin heavily lobbied former magistrate judge Joe Miller to run against incumbent. He declared his candidacy on 15th May and already endorsed by 5 incumbent Senators and influential former Speaker Newt Gingrich. This race will be very close

On 14th June at rally for Murkowski, Vice President Thune said: "If [Joe] Miller wins, we [McCain administration] will not endorse him. And I talked with Mr. McConnell, Miller will not get membership in any committee"

McCain's approval: 59-32 (+27)
Murkowksi's approval: 54-40 (+14)
Rating: Tossup (R primary), Likely R (GE)

Arizona

Declared candidates:
J.D. Hayworth (R)

Incumbent Grant Woods (R), who was appointed by Governor Janet Napolitano is still undecided, will he run or not. He is favorite of President McCain, who said that he is very unhappy that only one Republican, former Congressman Hayworh, now running in Arizona. Woods pledged to decided before September 1st, 2009

On the Democratic side, potential candidates includes Congresswomen Gabrielle Giffords and Ann Kirkpatrick. Popular Governor Janet Napolitano said that she isn't interested in running, even after most polls showed her ahead of all primary and general elections opponents. Arizona is trending for Democrats, but many experts doubt that it will be enough to flip this seat

McCain's approval: 57-30 (+27)
Woods'es approval: 39-20 (+19)
Rating: Tossup

Arkansas

Declared candidates:
Blanche Lincoln* (D)
Bill Halter (D)
Gilbert Baker (R)
Kim Hendren (R)
Randy Alexander (R)

Incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) is seeking her third term. She was reelected with 55.90% in 2004, despite President Bush easily win Arkansas'es electoral votes. Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter is running as a more liberal alternative to Lincoln. Polls show them head-to-head

On the Republican side, there are already 3 candidates. Potential candidates include 2004 nominee Jim Holt, U.S. Representative John Boozman and former U.S. Representative Asa Hutchinson. Boozman is the strongest among them. Few polls even have him ahead of Lincoln and Halter

McCain's approval: 58-34 (+24)
Lincoln's approval: 56-30 (+26)
Rating: Tossup

California

Declared candidates:
Barbara Boxer* (D)
Carly Fiorina (R)
Chuck DeVore (R)

Incumbent Barbara Boxer (D) is running for a fourth term. She was reelected in 2004 with 57.71%. She is expected to win easily, Boxer is popular in California and this state is very blue, so there must not be any problem to her reelection campaign

McCain's approval: 39-53 (-14)
Boxer's approval: 58-35 (+23)
Rating: Safe D

Colorado

Declared candidates:
Ken Salazar* (D)
Andrew Romanoff (D)
Ken Buck (R)

Incumbent Ken Salazar (D), who formed exploratory committee to run for President in 2012, is running for a second term. He is challenged by former Speaker of Colorado HoR Andrew Romanoff, who running as outsider. Romanoff said that Salazar "is Senator only for D.C., not for Colorado" and criticizing his vote to confirm most members of McCain's Cabinet

On the Republican side, Weld County district attorney Ken Buck is running. And former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton formed exploratory committee. Norton and Buck lead Romanoff in potential match-ups, while both losing bigly to Salazar - polls showing

McCain's approval: 45-49 (-4)
Salazar's approval: 57-37 (+20)
Rating: Likely D

Connecticut

Declared candidates:
Chris Dodd* (D)
Richard Blumenthal (D)
Rob Simmons (R)
Peter Schiff (R)

Incumbent Chris Dodd (D) is seeking his sixth term. He was reelected in 2004 with 66.42%. Now he is deeply unpopular in Connecticut, but he is running. Connecticut Attorney General Dick Blumenthal challenging him in Democratic primary, the latter expected to win this expensive race

On the Republican side, former Congressman Rob Simmons and businessman Peter Schiff are running. Businesswoman Linda McMahon formed an exploratory committee. Simmons and McMahon have advantage in general election against Dodd, but losing to a Blumenthal by big margin

McCain's approval: 37-58 (-21)
Dodd's approval: 36-60 (-24)
Rating: Tossup

Connecticut- special

Declared candidates:
Michael Fedele* (R)[/color]
Ned Lamont (D)[/color]

Incumbent Michael Fedele (R) is running for a full term. He was appointed by Governor Jodi Rell after Senator Joe Lieberman become Secretary of State. Popular incumbent Republican Governor Jodi Rell, who has advantage in all possible match-ups, declined to run, leaving Fedele alone Republican in this race

Ned Lamont, who defeated Lieberman in Democratic primary in 2006, running again. He is only Democrat in the race at he moment, but national Democrats put pressure on U.S. Representative Chris Murphy to get him in the race. He is the strongest potential Democratic candidate. Lamont and Fedele polling with margin of error, while Murphy has a serious lead against Fedele

McCain's approval: 37-58 (-21)
Fedele's approval: 32-33 (-1)
Rating: Tossup

Florida

Declared candidates:
Charlie Crist (R)
Marco Rubio (R)
Kendrick Meek (D)
Jeff Greene (D)

Incumbent Mel Martinez (R) is retiring and many sources say that he will resign before end of the year. After his decision to retire, many prominent Republicans declined to run, including Jeb Bush, Joe Scarborough and Adam Putnam. However, on June 10th, incumbent Governor Charlie Crist declared his candidacy. He will face Speaker of Florida HoR Marco Rubio in Republican primary, if any other candidate will not run. Rubio is endorsed by many conservatives and members of Tea Party, while Crist is heavily lobbied by President McCain and his allies. NRSC endorsed Charlie Crist. He was early favorite, but now polls are more close.

On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Kendrick Meek and businessman Jeff Greene are running. U.S. Representative Kathy Castor formed an exploratory committee. Florida is very purple state and almost all statewide open elections here are Tossup. Polls are showing very, very tight race. And now this race is already the most expensive Senate election in a country

McCain's approval: 47-46 (+1)
Martinez's approval: 55-39 (+16)
Rating: Tossup

Georgia

Declared candidates:
Johnny Isakson* (R)
Mike Thurmond (D)

Incumbent Johnny Isakson is running for a second term. He was elected with 57.88% in 2004. He facing no opposition in Republican primary and Mike Thurmond is only one Democrat in the race, whom win isn't expecting. If all stays the same, Isakson will be safe. But Congressmen Jim Marshall and Sanford Bishop expressed interest in running. Both of them met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. They are serious threat to Isakson, but high-profile Democrats in the USA, including 2008 presidential nominee Barack Obama, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin and former First Lady Hillary Clinton want very popular former Mayor of Atlanta Shirley Franklin to run

McCain's approval: 53-43 (+10)
Isakson's approval: 51-42 (+9)
Rating: Tossup

Hawaii

Declared candidates:
Daniel Inouye* (D)
Campbell Cavasso (R)

Incumbent Daniel Inoyue (D) is running for a ninth term. He didn't face any serious oppostion in almost all his bids. He is expected to win in landslide. Incumbent Republican Governor Linda Lingle, only one candidate, who would make this race competitive, declined to run

McCain's approval: 32-63 (-31)
Inoyue's approval: 67-24 (+43)
Rating: Safe D

Idaho

Declared candidates:
Mike Crapo* (R)
Skip Davis (R)
Tom Sullivan (D)

Incumbent Mike Crapo (R) is running for a third term. He didn't face any serious oppostion in all his bids. He is expected to win in landslide. Idaho is very friendly to Republicans state and President McCain is very popular here

McCain's approval: 65-30 (+35)
Crapo's approval: 58-37 (+21)
Rating: Safe R

Illinois

Declared candidates:
Mark Kirk (R)
Patrick Hudges (R)

Incumbent Barack Obama (D), who was Democratic presidential nominee in 2008, made some intimations that he will run for Governor in 2010, but he didn't declared his candidacy for any office. If he does not run for reelection, Democratic field will have many candidates. Some notable potential candidates: Rahm Emanuel, Alexi Giannoulias, Jerry Costello.

On the Republican side, moderate U.S. Representative Mark Kirk is a clear favorite to win the nomination

McCain's approval: 39-53 (-14)
Obama's approval: 70-24 (+46)
Rating: Likely D

Indiana

Declared candidates:
Evan Bayh* (D)
John Hostettler (R)
Marlin Stutzman (R)

Incumbent Evan Bayh (D) is seeking third term. He was reelected with 61.69% in 2004. Bayh is potential 2012 presidential candidate and he is very popular in Indiana. Republican candidates are former U.S. Representative John Hostettler and state senator Marlin Stutzman, both of them isn't serious threat for Bayh. Former Senator Dan Coats, the strongest Republican candidate, declined to run. And popular Republican Governor Mitch Daniels isn't likely to run, however he didn't declined this option

McCain's approval: 49-44 (+5)
Bayh's approval: 63-27 (+36)
Rating: Safe D

Iowa

Declared candidates:
none

Former popular Governor Tom Vilsack (D) expressed interest in running. He is expected to defeat incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley (R), if running. So, Grassley didn't declared his bid for reelection. Many experts say that he will wait until Vilsack's decision. Grassley also can run for Governor. Potential Republican candidates: U.S. Representatives Tom Latham and Steve King, former U.S. Representative Jim Nussle

McCain's approval: 46-47 (-1)
Grassley's approval: 54-41 (+13)
Rating: Tossup

Kansas

Declared candidates:
Todd Tiahrt (R)
Jerry Moran (R)
Bob Londerhom (R)
David Haley (D)
Lisa Johnston (D)

Incumbent Sam Brownback (R) declined to run for reelection, instead running for Governor. U.S. Representatives Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran and former Kansas Attorney General Bob Londerholm are running in Republican primary. President John McCain did not make any endorsement

On the Democratic side, businesswoman Lisa Johnston and state senator David Haley are running. High-profile Democrats hope that popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius will run. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid already twice met with her

McCain's approval: 62-31 (+31)
Brownback's approval: 59-35 (+24)
Rating: Safe R

Kentucky

Declared candidates:
Trey Grayson (R)
Rand Paul (R)
Jack Conway (D)
Daniel Mongiardo (D)
Darlene Price (D)

Incumbent Jim Bunning (R) hasn't declared will he run or not yet. He is deeply unpopular in state and in the country, overall. Bunning is under pressure from national Republicans and his colleague, fellow Kentucky Senator and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to retire. Almost all Republicans agreed that Bunning will lose general election. Ophthalmologist Rand Paul and Kentucky SoS Trey Grayson running for a Republican nomination

On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway are running. Mongiardo, who almost won this race in 2004, is very strong in rural parts of the state, while Conway's supporters live in urban and suburban regions

McCain's approval: 53-42 (+11)
Bunning's approval: 25-70 (-45)
Rating: Tossup

Louisiana

Declared candidates:
David Vitter (R)
Charlie Melançon (D)

Incumbent David Vitter (R) is seeking a second term. He is considered vulnerable because of prostitution scandal revealed in 2007. U.S. Representative Charlie Melançon (D) announced that he is running on June 14, 2009. Polls show Vitter and Melançon head-to-head

McCain's approval: 54-42 (+14)
Vitter's approval: 47-47 (0)
Rating: Tossup

[😥]

Early Senate races analysis. Part II

Maryland

Declared candidates:
Barbara Mikulski* (D)
Jim Rutledge (R)
Eric Wargotz (R)

Incumbent Barbara Mikulski (D) is running for a sixth term. She won reelection with 64.80% in 2004. She didn't face any serious oppostion in almost all her bids. Se is expected to win in landslide. U.S. Representative Andy Harris, only one candidate, who would make this race slightly more competitive, declined to run

McCain's approval: 34-62 (-28)
Mikulski's approval: 64-30 (+34)
Rating: Safe D

Missouri

Declared candidates:
Roy Blunt (R)
Robin Carnahan (D)

Incumbent Kit Bond (R) decided to retire. U.S. Representative and former House Minority Whip Roy Blunt is the only Republican in the race. Democrats have also one candidate, Missouri SoS Robin Carnahan. Both are very well-known in

McCain's approval: 51-43 (+8)
Bond's approval: 55-39 (+16)
Rating: Tossup

Nevada

Declared candidates:
Harry Reid* (D)
Sharron Angle (R)
Danny Tarkanian (R)
Sue Lowden (R)

Incumbent Harry Reid (D), who is Senate Majority Leader, is running for a fifth term. Reid was reelected with 61.08% in 2004. He was considered vulnerable early, but with election of John McCain, Reid became relative favorite.

On the Republican side, there are 3 famous candidates. Sue Lowden is endorsed by Republican establishment, while Tarkanian and Angle share the support of far-right and Tea Party

McCain's approval: 45-48 (-3)
Reid's approval: 52-42 (+10)
Rating: Lean D

New Hampshire

Declared candidates:
Kelly Ayotte* (R)
Ovide Lamontagne (R)
Paul Hodes (D)

Then-incumbent Judd Gregg (R) resigned in early 2009 to become Secretary of Commerce in McCain's administration, but he did his best to be succeeded by a Republican. After lengthy negotiations with Democratic Gov. John Lynch, NH Attorney General Kelly Ayotte was appointed to the Senate

Tea Party was dissatisfied about appointment of Ayotte and their leaders encouraged businessman Ovide Lamontagne to run against her in primary. President McCain endorsed Ayotte immediately after this

U.S. Representative Paul Hodes running unopposed in Democratic primary

McCain's approval: 47-47 (0)
Ayotte's approval: 41-19 (+22)
Rating: Likely R

New York

Declared candidates:
Chuck Schumer* (D)
Jay Townsend (R)
Gary Berntsen (R)

Incumbent Chuck Schumer (D) is running for a third term. He was reelected with 71.20% in 2004. Schumer is very popular in New York and he is expected to win easily agaist all Republican opponents. However, the most famous Republicans, like Rudy Giuliani and George Pataki declined to run

McCain's approval: 35-60 (-25)
Schumer's approval: 63-29 (+34)
Rating: Safe D

North Carolina

Declared candidates:
Richard Burr* (R)
Elaine Marshall (D)
Cal Cunningham (D)

Incumbent Richard Burr (R) is seeking second term in office. He was elected with 51.60% in 2004. NC SoS Elaine Marshall and former state senator Cal Cunningham are running for Democratic nomination. The race is very competitive. Conservative Democrats want Blue Dog Mike McIntyre to run here, his potential campaign was already endorsed by Blue Dog PAC and notable conservative Democrats (Joe Manchin, Ike Skelton and Bob Casey Jr.). He formed exploratory committee and is expected to announce his decision by July 15th.

McCain's approval: 49-45 (+4)
Burr's approval: 45-47 (-2)
Rating: Tossup

North Dakota

Declared candidate:
Kevin Cramer (R)

Incumbent Byron Dorgan (D) has not yet decided whether he will run. He has never faced serious opposition in all his elections. But the very popular Governor John Hoeven (R) has announced his interest in running. In this case, Dorgan is expected to lose.

The only candidate in the race is Republican Kevin Cramer. If he is a nominee, Dorgan will easily win

McCain's approval: 52-42 (+10)
Dorgan's approval: 59-32 (+27)
Rating: Tossup

Ohio

Declared candidates:
Rob Portman (R)
Lee Fisher (D)
Jennifer Brunner (D)

Incumbent George Voinovich (R) has announced his decision to resign.

"I had a wonderful years in the Senate. And a wonderful years as Governor of this wonderful state. And I love Ohio, I've always done my best for Ohio. Thank you all! I love our state! But my time is up, I want to spend time with my wife , my children and my family. I will not run again in 2010"

Former U.S. Representative, Trade Representative and OMB Director Rob Portman is unopposed in Republican primary, while Democrats are divided in a duel between Ohio SoS Fisher and Lieutenant Governor Brunner. The general election promises to be very competitive

McCain's approval: 48-46 (+2)
Voinovich's approval: 64-28 (+36)
Rating: Tossup

Oklahoma

Declared candidates:
Tom Coburn* (R)
Jim Rogers (D)

Incumbent Tom Coburn (R) is seeking second term in office. He was elected with 52.77% in 2004, but since then Oklahoma only became more red state. Coburn, as McCain, is very popular. He is expected to win easily

McCain's approval: 63-31 (+32)
Coburn's approval: 66-30 (+36)
Rating: Safe R

Oregon

Declared candidates:
Ron Wyden* (D)
Shane Dinkel (R)
Jim Huffman (R)
Thomas Stutzman (R)

Incumbent Ron Wyden (D) is running for a third full term. He was reelected with 63.39% in 2004. Law professor Jim Huffman is clear favorite to win Republican nomination, but Oregon is blue state and President is unpopular here, while Wyden's approval is high, so Wyden's seat is safe for him

McCain's approval: 40-55 (-15)
Wyden's approval: 54-42 (+12)
Rating: Safe D

Pennsylvania

Declared candidates:
Arlen Specter* (R)
Pat Toomey (R)
Joe Sestak (D)

Specter almost lost the primary in 2004 and was ready to change parties after the 2008 election. He abandoned this idea after talks with his close friend President McCain. Pat Toomey, his 2004 primary opponent, who is heavily backed by Tea Party, is running against him again.

On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Joe Sestak is running. U.S. Representative Allyson Schwatrz also announced her interest in the race. Governor Ed Rendell said he is seriously considering running. Meanwhile, Senator Casey is lobbying for the candidacy of one-term U.S. Representative Kathy Dahlkemper

McCain's approval: 43-51 (-8)
Specter's approval: 48-45 (+3)
Rating: Tossup

South Carolina

Declared candidates:
Jim DeMint* (R)
Charlie Condon (R)
Vic Rawl (D)

Incumbent Jim DeMint (R) is running for a second term in office. He was elected with 53.58% in 2004. DeMint is well-known for his ultra-conservative views and intra-party opposition for President McCain. Senator endorsed all Tea Party candidates, including opponents for current Congressmen.

McCain's allies decided to take revenge on him. VP Thune held a series of talks with various SC Republicans. Thune stopped at Charlie Condon, he asked him to announce his participation in the race. Condon, former SC Attorney General and 2008 McCain's campaign chair, agreed.

Vic Rawl is running unopposed for Democratic nomination

McCain's approval: 58-37 (+21)
DeMint's approval: 53-41 (+12)
Rating: Safe R

South Carolina- special

Declared candidates:
Bob Inglis* (R)
Joe Wilson (R)
Joyce Dickerson (D)
Alvin Greene (D)

Incumbent Bob Inglis (R) was appointed in February 2009 by Governor Mark Sanford. He is very liberal Republican, so he bacame Tea Party's target. U.S. Representative Joe Wilson announced his candidacy, he was immediately endorsed by Jim DeMint.

U.S. Representative Gresham Barrett (R) and former Governor David Beasley (R) firmed exploratory committees. Both are far more conservative than Inglis

On the Democratic side, Joyce Dickerson is clear favorite to win a nomination

McCain's approval: 58-37 (+21)
Inglis's approval: 33-34 (-1)
Rating: Safe R

South Dakota

Declared candidates:
Matt Michels* (R)
Tom Daschle (D)

Incumbent Matt Michels (R) was appointed by Governor Mike Rounds after John Thune's resignation. Shortly after this, former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle announced his comeback. He is well-known in the state, while Michels is quite unknown. Daschle leads by solid margin in most polls

McCain's approval: 54-41 (+13)
Michels's approval: 34-35 (-1)
Rating: Lean D (flip)

Utah

Declared candidates:
Bob Bennett* (R)
Tim Bridgewater (R)
Sam Granato (D)

Incumbent Bob Bennett (R) is running for a fouth term. He was reelected with 68.73% in 2004. Despite his relatively conservative record, he became on of the top targets of Tea Party. Businessman Tim Bridgewater already announced his candidacy, while most Tea Party leaders want to see attorney Mike Lee as Republican nominee.

Democrat Sam Granato is unopposed in his party primary

McCain's approval: 67-28 (+39)
Bennett's approval: 57-38 (+19)
Rating: Safe R

Vermont

Declared candidates:
Patrick Leahy* (D)
Len Britton (R)

Incumbent Patrick Leahy (D) running for a seventh term. He didn't face any serious oppostion in almost all his bids. He is expected to win in landslide. Businessman Scott Mline, only one candidate, who would make this race slighty more competitive, declined to run

McCain's approval: 36-59 (-23)
Leahy's approval: 66-28 (+38)
Rating: Safe D

Washington

Declared candidates:
Patty Murray* (D)
Dino Rossi (R)
Clint Didier (R)
Paul Akers (R)

Incumbent Patty Murray (D) is running for a fourth term. She was reelected with 54.98% in 2004. Murray is pretty popular in her state, while McCain's policies haven't many supporters here, so Democrats probably will hold this race again

McCain's approval: 42-53 (-11)
Murray's approval: 55-39 (+16)
Rating: Safe D

Wisconsin

Declared candidates:
Russ Feingold* (D)
Ron Johnson (R)

Incumbent Russ Feingold (D) is running for a fourth term. He was reelected with 55.35% in 2004

On the Republican side, businessman Ron Johnson, favorite of the Tea Party, declared his candidacy. McCain's allies heavily lobbied former Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson, he is still undecided

McCain's approval: 45-49 (-4)
Feingold's approval: 48-47 (+1)
Rating: Lean D

[😥]

So is this TL gonna be the McCain presidency being a sorta prologue and the blue dog dem winners presidency in 2012 being the main part

Yes, main part of this TL will be 2010 midterm elections and 2012 elections. Maybe I will continue it after 2012 (2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020 elections)

[😥]

McCain's administration (August 2009 - January 2010)

August 25th, 2009
U.S. Senator from Massachusetts Ted Kennedy (D), long-time friend of President McCain, died

September 24th, 2009
Paul G. Kirk, former Democratic National Committee chairman and former aide to Kennedy, appointed to occupy Kennedy's Senate seat until the completion of the special election.

Special election will be held on January 19, 2010. Primary elections will be held on December 8, 2009

October 2nd, 2009
Rising star in Democratic Party, Senator from Illinois and 2008 presidential nominee, who narrowly lost to McCain, Barack Obama will retire from the Senate and will run for Governor against incumbent Pat Quinn in primary

This is third open seat in this Senate election cycle

November 3rd&7th, 2009

Gubernatorial election results

New Jersey
Jon Corzine (D, inc.) 49.65%
Chris Christie (R) 46.38%
D hold

Virginia
Terry McAuliffe (D) 50.65%
Bob McDonnell (R) 46.21%
D hold

NYC Mayor
Michael Bloomberg (I) 49.04%
Bill Thompson (D) 49.02%
I/R hold

November 16th, 2009
Senator Bob Casey Jr. from Pennsylvania met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senators Kent Conrad, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln, Governors Joe Manchin and Brad Henry, Representatives Ike Skelton, Collin Peterson, Solomon Ortiz, Jim Oberstar, Nick Rahall, John Tanner, Gene Taylor, Kathy Dahlkemper and Dan Lipinski. It is still unknown what was discussed at the meeting. This was their ninth meeting.

At a joint briefing, they announced the creation of Blue Dogs for an American Future (BDAF). It is reported that this organization will be engaged in the election of socially conservative democrats. Ike Skelton also announced that the only one candidate for the presidential election will be nominated by this organization. Who it will be, Skelton declined to answer.

Ben Nelson: "We will have one candidate [for presidential election], but who it will be, we don't know yet. I think it will be Bob [Casey Jr.] or Evan [Bayh], but it's too early to say"

Joe Manchin: "Our presidential candidate will be Bayh or Casey, I lean it be Bob, because every seat in the Senate is important to us, and Evan's seat will be hard to defend.

November 21st, 2009
Former Senator from North Carolina, 2004 and 2008 presidential candidate, 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards in Charlotte, NC announced his candidacy for President in 2012. He is first major candidate in presidential race

Democratic primary poll
Sen. Hillary Clinton 30%
Sen. Barack Obama 21%
Fmr. VP Al Gore 20%
Sen. Evan Bayh 11%
Sen. John Edwards 8%

November 29th, 2009
Senate passed Immigrants Support Act

YEA: 65 votes
NAY: 34 votes
Absent: Robert Byrd (D-WV)

Republicans, who voted YEA: 26 Republican Senators
Democrats, who voted YEA: 39 Democratic Senators

Immigration reform will make life easier for immigrants inside the United States and create more ways for immigrants to obtain citizenship. McCain also announced that about 700 million illegal immigrants will receive citizenship in the coming month. ISA has been criticized by numerous GOP officials. The main critics of the reform are considered to be the U.S. Representatives Steve King and Dana Rohrabacher and businessman Donald Trump

Group of nine Democratic Senators in a joint statement announced that they did not vote for the bill because of the harsh treatment of immigrants in it

Do you suport ISA?
Support 53%
Oppose 38%
Unsure 9%

Among Democrats
Support 57%
Oppose 32%
Unsure 11%

Among Republicans
Support 42%
Oppose 51%
Unsure 7%

Among Independents
Support 63%
Oppose 29%
Unsure 8%

November 30th, 2009
Businessman Donald Trump, who was a Democrat until recently announced his decision to challenge President McCain in Republican primary after immigration reform. He called McCain "the worst president in history" and "the devil" and said the president "needs to go to hell."

Republican primary poll
John McCain 59%
Donald Trump 33%

John McCain's approval
Approve 49%
Disapprove 44%
Unsure 7%

Among Democrats
Approve 38%
Disapprove 54%
Unsure 8%

Among Republicans
Approve 49%
Disapprove 43%
Unsure 8%

Among Independents
Approve 63%
Dissapprove 30%
Unsure 7%

December 8th, 2009
Massachussets Senate special election primary

Democratic primary
Rep. Mike Capuano 39.25%
State Att. Gen. Martha Coakley 36.29%
Fmr. CEO of City Year Alan Khazei 14.19%
Mr. Stephen Pagliuca 10.27%

Republican primary
State Rep. Scott Brown 88.95%
Mr. Jack Robinson 11.05%

General election
Mike Capuano (D)
Scott Brown (R)
Rating: Likely D

December 11th, 2009
Former Vice President Al Gore, 2000 presidential nominee, environmental activist and potential 2012 presidential candidate declined to run for President.

Democratic primary poll
Sen. Hillary Clinton 16%
Sen. Barack Obama 14%
Sen. Russ Feingold 12%
Sen. Bob Casey Jr. 9%
Sen. Evan Bayh 9%
Sen. Ken Salazar 6%
Gov. Phil Bredesen 5%
Sen. Bernie Sanders 5%
Fmr. Sen. John Edwards 3%
Gov. Christine Gregoire 2%
Sen. Jim Webb 1%
Unsure 8%

Republican primary poll (with McCain)
President John McCain 57%
Businessman Donald Trump 37%
Unsure 6%

Republican primary poll (without McCain)
VP John Thune 32%
Gov. Mitch Daniels 15%
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum 10%
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich 7%
Sec. Lindsey Graham 7%
Businessman Donald Trump 7%
Gov. Bobby Jindal 5%
Sen. Jeff Sessions 4%
Rep. Ron Paul 1%
Unsure 12%

Republican primary poll (without McCain and Thune)
Sec. Mitt Romney 24%
Gov. Mitch Daniels 19%
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum 15%
Sec. Lindsey Graham 10%
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich 6%
Businessman Donald Trump 6%
Sen. Jeff Sessions 3%
Gov. Bobby Jindal 2%
Rep. Ron Paul 1%
Unsure 14%

December 13th, 2009
Senator from North Dakota Byron Dorgan will run for reelection. Shortly after this, popular Republican Governor John Hoeven, a potential Senate candidate, declined to run and said he wanted "to be a Governor a little more"

17th December, 2009
DSCC Chair Bob Menendez and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for a second time met with former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, who is potential candidate for Senate in Georgia

[😥]

Next few posts will be more detailed analyzes of all Senate races as for January 2010, then McCain's presidency then Senate, House and gubernatorial primary results and then long election night of 2010

First post of detailed analyzes of Senate races (Alabama, Alaska and Arkansas) will be posted tomorrow

[😥]

Analysis Alabama Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing dedline: April 2nd
Primary: June 1st, July 13th (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Richard Shelby - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Bob Riley - incumbent Governor
   2) Robert Aderholt - U.S. Representative
   3) Mike Rogers - U.S. Representative

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) William Barnes - attorney
   2) Simone De Moore - teacher
2.Declined:
   1) Arthur Davis - U.S. Representative
   2) Jim Folsom Jr. - Lieutenant Governor

Richard Shelby's approval rating
Approve: 1) 58%; 2) 60%; 3) 57%
Dissapprove: 1) 35%; 2) 35%; 3) 37%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 5%; 3) 6%

General election polling        
Richard Shelby- William Barnes - Undecided
           55%                    35%                   10%
           58%                    34%                    8%
           57%                    34%                    9%

Richard Shelby - Simone De Moore - Undecided
            59%                        31%                     10%
            60%                        33%                      7%
            56%                        34%                     10%

Due to a fairly conservative voting record, Richard Shelby was not challenged by the Tea Party. He won quite easily in Alabama before, so now he will probably be easily re-elected to the fifth term.

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act NAY
McCain's approval 63-30 (+33)

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

Analysis Alaska Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 1st
Primary: August 24th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Lisa Murkowski - incumbent U.S. Senator
    2) Joe Miller - former U.S. magistrate judge
2.Declined:
   1) Sean Parnell - incumbent Governor
   2) Sarah Palin - former Governor
   3) Don Young - U.S. Representative

Polling
Lisa Murkowski - Joe Miller - Undecided
            46%                  48%               6%
            47%                  47%               6%
            44%                  49%               7%

Endorsements

Lisa Murkowski
× John McCain (R-AZ), President of the USA
× John Thune (R-SD), Vice President of the USA
× Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK)
× Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
× Sen. Bob Corker (R-KY)
× Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN)
× Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN)
× Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
× Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
× Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA)
× Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV)
× Rep. Don Young (R-AK)
× Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL)
× House Min. Leader John Boehner (R-OH)
× Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
× Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)

Joe Miller
× Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)
× Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
× Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
× Sen. John Cornyn (R-OK)
× Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
× Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
× Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
× Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
× Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Scott McAdams - Mayor of Sitka
2.Declined:
   1) Mark Begich - 2008 nominee
   2) Ethan Berkowitz - state Senator
   3) Tony Knowles - former Governor, 2004 nominee

Lisa Murkowski's approval rating
Approve: 1) 52%; 2) 54%; 3) 51%
Dissapprove: 1) 42%; 2) 39%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 7%; 3) 9%

General election polling        
Lisa Murkowski (I) - Joe Miller - Undecided
            47%                      45%               8%
            45%                      46%               9%
            47%                      47%               6%

Lisa Murkowski - Joe Miller (I) - Undecided
            50%                   42%                  8%
            51%                   40%                  9%
            53%                   40%                  7%

Joe Miller - Scott McAdams - Undecided
       50%                   45%                   5%
       48%                   45%                   7%
       47%                   45%                   8%

Lisa Murkowski - Scott McAdams - Undecided
           56%                         39%                   6%
           58%                         37%                   5%
           54%                         39%                   7%


Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 60-33 (+27)

Rating:

Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Likely R
CNN: Likely R
RCP: Lean R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

Analysis Arkansas Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 8th
Primary: May 18th, June 8th (runoff)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Blanche Lincoln - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Bill Halter - Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas
2.Declined:
   1) Mike Ross - U.S. Representative
   2) Vic Snyder - U.S. Representative
   3) Mike Beebe - incumbent Governor

Polling
Blanche Lincoln - Bill Halter - Undecided
            43%                 41%               16%
            40%                 42%               18%
            43%                 42%               14%
            43%                 44%               13%

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) John Boozman - U.S. Representative
    2) Radney Alexander - Washington County Tea Party Vice Chair
    3) Gilbert Baker - state Senator
    4) Kim Hendren - State Sen. Min. Leader
    5) Jim Holt - former state Senator
    6) Conrad Reynolds - ret. Army colonel
2.Declined:
   1) Asa Hutchinson - former U.S. Representative
   2) Tim Hutchinson - former U.S. Senator

Polling
John Boozman - Others - Undecided
           45%               47%           8%
           49%               42%           9%
           50%               43%           7%

Blanche Lincoln's approval rating
Approve: 1) 48%; 2) 47%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 46%; 2) 47%; 3) 45%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 6%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Blanche Lincoln - John Boozman - Undecided
            43%                       47%                  10%
            44%                       48%                   8%
            47%                       46%                   7%

Bill Halter - John Boozman - Undecided
      45%                   49%                  6%
      47%                   47%                  6%
      45%                   50%                  5%

Generic Democrat - Generic Republican  - Undecided
               47%                           47%                         5%
               48%                           44%                         8%
               45%                           46%                         9%

After entering the race, Representative John Boozman was considered a clear favorite, but McCain's popularity was declining, and Blanche Lincoln skillfully used her achievements for Arkansas as Senate Agriculture Chairwoman. And although it was thought that Boozman would be able to avoid the runoff, recent polls show him below 50%

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 55-38 (+17)

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean R (flip)
NYT: Lean R (flip)
CNN: Lean D
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R (flip)
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis Arizona Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: May 26th
Primary: August 24th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Grant Woods - incumbent U.S. Senator
    2) J.D. Hayworth - former U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1) Jeff Flake - U.S. Representative
   2) Trent Franks - U.S. Representative
   3) Jan Brewer - Arizona Secretary of State

Polling
Grant Woods - J.D. Hayworth - Undecided
        63%                       31%                6%

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Gabrielle Giffords - U.S. Representative
2.Potential:
   Ann Kirkpatrick - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Ron Barber - U.S. Representative
   2) Raul Grijalva - U.S. Representative
   3) Janet Napolitano - incumbent Governor

Polling
Gabrielle Giffords - Ann Kirkpatrick: 55%-39%
Gabrielle Giffords - Janet Napolitano: 43%-51%

Grant Woods's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 47%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 36%; 2) 38%; 3) 36%
Don't know: 1) 14%; 2) 15%; 3) 14%

General election polling        
Grant Woods- Gabrielle Giffords- Undecided
         49%                       45%                    6%
         48%                       45%                    7%
         46%                       44%                   10%

J.D. Hayworth - Gabrielle Giffords - Undecided
          44%                        51%                     5%
          43%                        52%                     5%
          42%                        51%                     7%

Grant Woods - Ann Kirkpatrick - Undecided
        50%                       45%                  5%
        49%                       44%                  7%
        51%                       43%                  6%

Grant Woods was appointed Governor of Janet Napolitano in early 2009. He is a very moderate Republican and he faces a challenger from the right J.D. Hayworth.
On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords, who is considered a rising star, announced her campaign. Her colleague Ann Kirkpatrick remains a potential candidate. And despite the fact that Napolitano leads in all polls, she refused to run.

President McCain is very popular in his homestate, but will that be enough for Woods to win?

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 58-31 (+27)

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Tossup

Analysis California Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: February 25th
Primary: June 8th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Barbara Boxer - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Jerry Brown - former Governor
   2) Brad Sherman - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Tom Campbell - former U.S. Representative, 2000 nominee
    2) Carly Fiorina - former CEO of Hewlett-Packard
    3) Chuck DeWore - state Assemblyman
2.Declined:
   1) Arnold Schwarzenegger - incumbent Governor
   2) Darrell Issa - U.S. Representative
   3) Kevin McCarthy - U.S. Representative

Polling
Tom Campbell - Carly Fiorina - Undecided
           50%                   40%               10%
           46%                   45%                9%
           42%                   48%               10%

Barbara Boxer's approval rating
Approve: 1) 62%; 2) 60%; 3) 60%
Dissapprove: 1) 31%; 2) 35%; 3) 32%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 5%; 3) 8%

General election polling        
Barbara Boxer - Carly Fiorina - Undecided
          56%                    38%                 6%
          57%                    39%                 4%
          59%                    36%                 5%

Barbara Boxer - Tom Campbell - Undecided
           61%                    35%                   4%
           58%                    36%                   6%
           60%                    33%                   7%

California is getting bluer, and Senator Boxer is pretty popular here, so it's expected to easily win again

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act NAY
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan NAY
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 37-55 (-18)

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

[😥]

Analysis Colorado Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: May 27th
Primary: August 10th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Ken Salazar - incumbent U.S. Senator
2. Potential:
     Andrew Romanoff - former Speaker of Colorado HoR
3.Declined:
   1) Ed Perlmutter - U.S. Representative
   2) John Hickenlooper - Mayor of Denver

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Ken Buck - Weld County District Attorney
2. Potential:
    Jane Norton - former lieutenant Governor
3. Declined:
   1) Bob Schaffer - former U.S. Representative, 2008 nominee
   2) Bob Beauprez - former U.S. Representative
   3) Troy Eid - U.S. Attorney

Polling
Ken Buck - Jane Norton - Undecided
      45%               46%                 9%
      49%               44%                 7%
      46%               47%                 7%

Ken Salazar's approval rating
Approve: 1) 60%; 2) 62%; 3) 63%
Dissapprove: 1) 36%; 2) 32%; 3) 30%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 6%; 3) 7%

General election polling   
Ken Salazar - Ken Buck - Undecided
         60%              34%               6%
         59%              36%               5%
         58%              34%               8%

Ken Salazar - Jane Norton - Undecided
        59%                 33%                  8%
        59%                 35%                  6%
        57%                 36%                  7%

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act NAY
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 45-50 (-5)

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Likely D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Likely D[/coral]
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Connecticut Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 8th
Primary: August 10th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Chris Dodd - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Richard Blumenthal - state Attorney General
2.Declined:
   1) Chris Murphy - U.S. Representative
   2) Rosa DeLauro - U.S. Representative

Polling
Chris Dodd - Richard Blumenthal - Undecided
        50%                        43%                     7%
        46%                        46%                     6%
        49%                        42%                     9%

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Rob Simmons - former U.S. Representative
    2) Linda McMahon - businesswoman
    3) Peter Schiff - advisor to Ron Paul's 2008 campaign
2.Declined:
   1) Larry Kudlow - TV talk show host
   2) Jodi Rell - incumbent Governor

Polling
Simmons - McMahon - Schiff - Undecided
      45%             37%            8%          10%
      42%             41%           10%          7%
      40%             45%            7%           8%

Chris Dodd's approval rating
Approve: 1) 33%; 2) 32%; 3) 30%
Dissapprove: 1) 58%; 2) 61%; 3) 62%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 7%; 3) 8%

General election polling
Chris Dodd - Rob Simmons - Undecided
       42%                   51%                  7%
       44%                   50%                  6%
       41%                   50%                  9%

Chris Dodd - Linda McMahon - Undecided
       44%                   47%                     9%
       46%                   45%                     9%
       42%                   48%                    10%

Richard Blumenthal - Rob Simmons - Undecided
              51%                          44%                  5%
              50%                          43%                  7%
              51%                          43%                  6%

Richard Blumenthal - Linda McMahon - Undecided
              52%                           43%                     5%
              53%                           39%                     8%
              50%                           43%                     7%

Hypothetical:
Richard Blumenthal - Jodi Rell: 39% - 58%
Chris Dodd - Jodi Rell: 33% - 63%


Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act NAY
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan NAY
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 38-57 (-19)

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R (flip) (assuming Dodd is nominee)
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean D
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R (flip) (assuming Dodd is nominee)
Daily Kos: Lean D (assuming Blumenthal is nominee)

Analysis Connecticut special Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 8th
Primary: August 10th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Michael Fedele - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Rob Simmons - U.S. Representative (running for other Senate seat)
   2) Linda McMahon - businesswoman (running for other Senate seat)
   3) Jodi Rell - incumbent Governor

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Ned Lamont - businessman, 2006 nominee
2. Potential:
    Chris Murphy - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Richard Blumenthal - state Attorney General (running for other Senate seat)
   2) John Larson - U.S. Representative

Polling
Ned Lamont - Chris Murphy: 41%-52%

Michael Fedele's approval rating
Approve: 1) 40%; 2) 43%; 3) 42%
Dissapprove: 1) 35%; 2) 40%; 3) 41%
Don't know: 1) 25%; 2) 17%; 3) 17%

General election polling        
Michael Fedele - Ned Lamont - Undecided
           46%                    46%                  8%
           44%                    47%                  9%
           43%                    50%                  7%

Michael Fedele - Chris Murphy - Undecided
           40%                     53%                 7%
           39%                     53%                 8%
           40%                     54%                 6%


Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 38-57 (-19)

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean D (flip)
NYT: Lean D (flip)
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Lean D (flip)
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean D (flip)

[😥]

Should I post all these detailed analyzes or just skip them and post primary results for every state?

[😥]

Analysis Florida Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: April 30th
Primary: August 24th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Kendrick Meek - U.S. Representative
   2) Jeff Greene - businessman
2.Potential:
   1) Buddy Dyer - Mayor of Orlando
   2) Pam Iorio - Mayor of Tampa
   3) Kathy Castor - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Allen Boyd - U.S. Representative
   2) Ted Deutch - U.S. Representative
   3) Ron Klein - U.S. Representative

Polling
Meek - Greene - Dyer - Iorio - Castor - Undecided
  60%       32%        -          -            -                 8%
  31%       20%      43%      -            -                 6%
  25%       15%      32%    23%       -                 5%
  19%       10%      25%    13%      27%            6%
  22%       11%      30%      -          30%             7%
  24%       14%        -         22%     33%             7%
  29%       20%        -          -          46%             5%
  34%       16%        -         40%       -                10%

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Marco Rubio - Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives
    2) Charlie Crist - Governor of Florida
2.Potential:
    Mario Diaz-Balart - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Connie Mack IV - U.S. Representative
   2) Adam Putnam - U.S. Representative
   3) Jeb Bush - former Governor

Polling
Charlie Crist - Marco Rubio - Undecided
        60%                   33%                 7%
        54%                   40%                 6%
        50%                   45%                 5%
        53%                   39%                 8%

Endorsements

Charlie Crist
× John McCain (R-AZ), President of the USA
× John Thune (R-SD), Vice President of the USA
× Fmr. Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL)
× Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
× Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
× Sen. George LeMieux (R-FL)
× Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA)
× Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
× Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
× Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL)
× Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL)
× House Min. Leader John Boehner (R-OH)
× Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
× Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
× NRSC

Marco Rubio
× Fmr. Pres. George Bush (R-TX)
× Fmr. VP Dick Cheney (R-WY)
× Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL)
× Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
× Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
× Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
× Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
× Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)
× Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
× Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
× Rep. Jeff Miller (R-FL)
× Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R-FL)
× Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

George LeMieux's approval rating
Approve: 1) 45%; 2) 41%; 3) 40%
Dissapprove: 1) 35%; 2) 34%; 3) 38%
Don't know: 1) 20%; 2) 25%; 3) 22%

General election polling        
Marco Rubio - Kendrick Meek - Undecided
         46%                     46%                   8%
         47%                     44%                   9%
         44%                     45%                  11%

Marco Rubio - Jeff Greene - Undecided
         48%                 42%                10%
         49%                 40%                11%
         47%                 43%                10%

Marco Rubio - Buddy Dyer - Undecided
         43%                 45%                12%
         43%                 50%                 7%
         42%                 49%                 9%

Marco Rubio - Kathy Castor - Undecided
         46%                  46%                 8%
         44%                  49%                 7%
         46%                  47%                 7%

Marco Rubio - Pam Iorio - Undecided
         46%                41%             13%
         45%                43%             12%
         46%                45%              9%

Charlie Crist - Kendrick Meek - Undecided
         49%                   44%                  7%
         50%                   42%                  8%
         50%                   43%                  7%

Charlie Crist - Jeff Greene - Undecided
         51%                   41%              8%
         50%                   40%             10%
         52%                   41%              7%

Charlie Crist - Buddy Dyer - Undecided
         46%                 46%                8%
         46%                 47%                7%
         45%                 45%               10%

Charlie Crist - Kathy Castor- Undecided
         48%                 45%                  7%
         46%                 47%                  7%
         49%                 44%                  7%

Charlie Crist - Pam Iorio - Undecided
         49%               41%              10%
         45%               40%              15%
         47%               43%              10%

Charlie Crist (R) - Marco Rubio (I) - Generic D - Undecided
          39%                       12%                    38%              11%
          40%                       10%                    39%              11%
          41%                       15%                    44%                -

Marco Rubio (R) - Charlie Crist (I) - Generic D - Undecided
          29%                        33%                   25%              13%
          27%                        34%                   28%              11%
          30%                        37%                   33%                -

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis Georgia Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 21st
Primary: July 20th, August 10th (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Johnny Isakson - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Sonny Perdue - incumbent Governor
   2) Paul Broun - U.S. Representative
   3) Tom Price - U.S. Representative

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Mike Thurmond - Commissioner of Labor
2.Potential:
   1) Jim Marshall - U.S. Representative
   2) Shirley Franklin - former Mayor of Atlanta
   3) Sanford Bishop - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) David Scott - U.S. Representative
   2) Hank Johnson - U.S. Representative
   3) Roy Barnes - former Governor (running for Governor)

Johnny Isakson's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 53%; 3) 52%
Dissapprove: 1) 41%; 2) 40%; 3) 42%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 7%; 3) 6%

General election polling
Johnny Isakson - Mike Thurmond - Undecided
           54%                        40%                    6%
           55%                        38%                    7%
           53%                        41%                    6%

Johhny Isakson - Jim Marshall - Undecided
          48%                        46%                 6%
          46%                        46%                 8%
          45%                        47%                 8%

Johnny Isakson - Shirley Franklin - Undecided
          44%                        48%                    8%
          43%                        50%                    7%
          44%                        49%                    7%

Johnny Isakson - Sanford Bishop - Undecided
           47%                        47%                    6%
           48%                        45%                    7%
           47%                        46%                    7%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Lean R
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Lean R

Analysis Hawaii Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 20th
Primary: September 18th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Daniel Inouye - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Neil Abercrombie - U.S. Representative
   2) Ed Case - former U.S. Representative, 2006 candidate

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Campbell Cavasso - former U.S. Representative, 2000 nominee
    2) Eddie Perkowski - businessman
    3) John Roco
2.Declined:
     Linda Lingle - incumbent Governor

No Polling

Daniel Inouye's approval rating
Approve: 1) 64%; 2) 66%; 3) 67%
Dissapprove: 1) 26%; 2) 28%; 3) 28%
Don't know: 1) 10%; 2) 6%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Daniel Inouye - Campbell Cavasso - Undecided
         68%                         28%                      4%
         67%                         27%                      6%
         65%                         27%                      8%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Idaho Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 19th
Primary: May 25th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Mike Crapo - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Skip Davis
2.Declined:
    Mike Simpson - U.S. Representative
  
Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Tom Sullivan - merchant banker
2.Declined:
   Walt Minnick - Democratic nominee for ID-01 in 2008 (running for ID-01)

Mike Crapo's approval rating
Approve: 1) 56%; 2) 59%; 3) 59%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%; 2) 35%; 3) 32%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 9%

General election polling
No polling

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

[😥]

Analysis Illinois Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: November 2nd, 2009
Primary: February 2nd

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Alexi Giannoulias - state Treasurer
   2) David Hoffman - Chicago inspector general
   3) Cheryle Jackson - President of Chicago Urban League
   4) Rahm Emanuel - U.S. Representative
   5) Tammy Duckworth - former Director of Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs
   6) Robert Marshall - doctor
2.Declined:
   1) Barack Obama - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Dan Lipinski - U.S. Representative
   3) Debbie Halvorson - U.S. Representative
   4) Jerry Costello Jr. - U.S. Representative

Endorsements

Alexi Giannoulias
Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL)

Rahm Emanuel
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)
Rep. Philip Hare (D-IL)
Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL)

Tammy Duckworth
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Rep. Bobby Rush (D-IL)
Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL)
Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL)
Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL)
Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Polling
Alexi Giannoulias - David Hoffman - Cheryle Jackson - Rahm Emanuel - Tammy Duckworth - Robert Marshall - Undecided
             15%                       10%                         11%                       31%                       24%                            3%                      6%
             17%                       12%                          9%                        30%                       25%                            2%                      5%
             17%                        8%                          13%                       30%                       25%                            2%                      5%
             14%                       14%                         10%                       28%                       23%                            2%                      9%
             14%                       13%                         10%                       28%                       28%                            2%                      5%

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Mark Kirk - U.S. Representative
    2) Patrick Hudges - Chairman of Sensible Taxpayers Opposed to Increased Taxes
2.Declined:
   1) John Shimkus - U.S. Representative
   2) Aaron Schock - U.S. Representative

Polling
Mark Kirk - Patrick Hudges - Undecided
       69%                 26%                   5%
       68%                 24%                   8%
       68%                 23%                   9%

Barack Obama's approval rating
Approve: 1) 65%; 2) 67%; 3) 66%
Dissapprove: 1) 29%; 2) 27%; 3) 29%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 6%; 3) 5%

General election polling
Alexi Giannoulias - Mark Kirk - Undecided
            50%                     43%             7%
            48%                     45%             7%
            49%                     42%             9%
            46%                     46%             8%
            49%                     44%             7%
            48%                     43%             9%

David Hoffman - Mark Kirk - Undecided
         47%                    47%             6%
         46%                    45%             9%
         45%                    45%            10%
         45%                    48%             7%
         44%                    46%            10%
         47%                    46%             7%

Cheryle Jackson - Mark Kirk - Undecided
            46%                    46%             8%
            45%                    46%             9%
            46%                    45%             9%
            47%                    47%             6%
            46%                    46%             8%
            45%                    46%             9%

Rahm Emanuel - Mark Kirk - Undecided
          50%                   42%              8%
          51%                   43%              6%
          52%                   43%              5%
          53%                   42%              5%
          52%                   40%              8%
          53%                   41%              6%

Tammy Duckworth - Mark Kirk - Undecided
             49%                       42%             9%
             51%                       42%             7%
             52%                       42%             6%
             54%                       39%             7%
             52%                       40%             8%
             53%                       40%             7%

Hypothetical:
Barack Obama - Mark Kirk: 66% - 28%

Rating:

Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Likely D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Likely D
CNN: Lean D
RCP: Lean D
Fox News: Likely D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Indiana Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: February 19th
Primary: May 4th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Evan Bayh - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Brad Ellsworth - U.S. Representative
   2) Baron Hill - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) John Hostettler - former U.S. Representative
    2) Marlin Stutzman - state Senator
2.Potential:
  Mitch Daniels - incumbent Governor
3. Declined:
   1) Mike Pence - U.S. Representative
   2) Dan Coats - former U.S. Senator

Polling
John Hostettler - Marlin Stutzman - Undecided
           50%                         42%                    8%
           44%                         49%                    7%
           46%                         46%                    8%

John Hostettler - Marlin Stutzman - Mitch Daniels - Undecided
          16%                          19%                      59%                  6%
          16%                          14%                      62%                  8%
          14%                          17%                      64%                  5%

Evan Bayh's approval rating
Approve: 1) 64%; 2) 66%; 3) 67%
Dissapprove: 1) 28%; 2) 29%; 3) 27%
Don't know: 1) 8%; 2) 5%; 3) 6%

General election polling        
Evan Bayh - John Hostettler - Undecided
       65%                    28%                 7%
       62%                    30%                 8%
       66%                    28%                 6%

Evan Bayh - Marlin Stutzman - Undecided
       65%                    29%                    6%
       64%                    29%                    7%
       64%                    31%                    5%

Evan Bayh - Mitch Daniels - Undecided
       54%                41%                  5%
       51%                43%                  6%
       52%                44%                  4%

Rating:

Cook: Likely D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Likely D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Likely D

[😥]

Analysis Iowa Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 19th
Primary: June 8th

Republican Party
1.Declared: none
2.Potential:
   1) Chuck Grassley - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Steve King - U.S. Representative
   3) Tom Latham - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Terry Branstad - former Governor
   2) Jim Nussle - former U.S. Representative

Polling
Steve King - Tom Latham: 37% - 59%

Democratic Party
1.Declared: none
2.Potential:
   1) Tom Vilsack - incumbent Governor
   2) Dave Loebsack - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Bruce Braley - U.S. Representative
   2) Chet Culver - incumbent Governor

Polling
Tom Vilsack - Dave Loebsack: 65% - 29%

Chuck Grassley's approval rating
Approve: 1) 53%; 2) 50%; 3) 49%
Dissapprove: 1) 42%; 2)44%; 3) 43%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 8%

General election polling
Chuck Grassley - Tom Vilsack - Undecided
          46%                      47%                 7%
          43%                      49%                 8%
          42%                      50%                 8%
          40%                      53%                 7%
          42%                      52%                 6%
          43%                      51%                 6%


Chuck Grassley - Dave Loebsack - Undecided
          48%                        46%                    6%
          47%                        47%                    6%
          45%                        48%                    8%
          46%                        46%                    8%
          46%                        47%                    7%
          45%                        47%                    8%

Steve King - Tom Vilsack - Undecided
        29%               60%               11%
        32%               59%                9%
        28%               62%               10%
        30%               63%                7%

Steve King - Dave Loebsack - Undecided
       33%                  57%                   10%
       34%                  58%                    8%
       35%                  56%                    9%
       31%                  62%                    7%

Tom Latham - Tom Vilsack - Undecided
        40%                   54%               10%
        41%                   52%                7%
        37%                   54%                9%

Tom Latham - Dave Loebsack - Undecided
        40%                    52%                     8%
        45%                    49%                     6%
        43%                    50%                     7%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

Analysis Kansas Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 10th
Primary: August 3rd

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Todd Tiahrt - U.S. Representative
   2) Jerry Moran - U.S. Representative
   3) Bob Londerholm - former state Attorney General
2.Potential:
   Kris Kobach - former Chair of Kansas Republican Party
3.Declined:
   1) Sam Brownback - incumbent Senator
   2) Lynn Jenkins - U.S. Representative
   3) Jim Ryun - former U.S. Representative

Polling
Todd Tiahrt - Jerry Moran - Undecided
        50%                46%                 4%
        47%                47%                 6%
        44%                50%                 6%
        48%                45%                 8%
        49%                45%                 7%

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) David Haley - state senator
   2) Lisa Johnston - administrator at Baker University
2. Potential:
    Kathleen Sebelius - incumbent Governor
3.Declined:
   1) Mark Parkinson - incumbent Lieutenant Governor
   2) Dennis Moore - U.S. Representative

Polling
David Haley - Lisa Johnston - Undecided
        14%                  22%                  64%
        10%                  18%                  72%

Kathleen Sebelius - Others: 87% - 8%

Sam Brownback's approval rating
Approve: 1) 54%; 2) 57%; 3) 58%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%; 2) 34%; 3) 35%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 9%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Jerry Moran - Lisa Johnston - Undecided
        63%                   32%                  5%
        64%                   28%                  8%
        61%                   33%                  6%

Jerry Moran - David Haley - Undecided
        65%                  29%               6%
        62%                  30%               8%
        61%                  32%               7%

Todd Tiahrt - Lisa Johnston - Undecided
        62%                 32%                   6%
        62%                 30%                   8%
        63%                 31%                   6%

Todd Tiahrt - David Haley - Undecided
        63%                 31%               6%
        64%                 30%               6%
        60%                 33%               7%

Generic Republican - Kathleen Sebelius - Undecided
              46%                              48%                      6%
              43%                              50%                      7%
              42%                              50%                      8%
              45%                              46%                      9%
              45%                              47%                      8%

Rating:

Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Lean R
RCP: Lean R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Lean R

[😥]

Analysis Kentucky Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: January 26th
Primary: May 18th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Trey Grayson - Kentucky SoS
    2) Rand Paul - ophthalmologist
    3) John Stephenson
    4) Gurley Marti
2. Potential:
    1) Jim Bunning - incumbent U.S. Senator
    2) Ernie Fletcher - former Governor
3.Declined:
   1) Brett Guthrie - U.S. Representative
   2) Geoff Davis - U.S. Representative

Polling
Trey Grayson - Rand Paul - Undecided
          49%                42%               9%

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Jack Conway - state Attorney General
   2) Daniel Mongiardo - Lieutenant Governor, 2004 nominee
   3) Darlene Price - former U.S. Customs agent
2.Declined:
   1) Ben Chandler - U.S. Representative
   2) John Yarmuth - U.S. Representative
   3) Steve Beshear - incumbent Governor

Polling
Jack Conway - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
         46%                       46%                       8%

Jim Bunning's approval rating
Approve: 1) 30%; 2) 31%; 3) 32%
Dissapprove: 1) 64%; 2) 65%; 3) 63%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 4%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Trey Grayson - Jack Conway - Undecided
         43%                    47%                10%
         44%                    48%                 8%
         44%                    50%                 6%

Trey Grayson - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
         41%                       50%                      9%
         41%                       49%                     10%
         42%                       51%                      7%

Rand Paul - Jack Conway - Undecided
       46%                49%                 5%
       44%                48%                 8%
       46%                47%                 7%

Rand Paul - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
       44%                   50%                      6%
       45%                   48%                      7%
       43%                   50%                      7%

Jim Bunning - Jack Conway - Undecided
        40%                    54%                 6%
        38%                    55%                 7%
        38%                    52%                10%

Jim Bunning - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
        38%                       55%                      7%
        37%                       56%                      7%
        38%                       53%                      9%

Ernie Fletcher - Jack Conway - Undecided
         42%                     53%                 5%
         42%                     52%                 6%
         42%                     54%                 4%

Ernie Fletcher - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
         41%                        55%                     4%
         41%                        54%                     5%
         38%                        54%                     8%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean D (flip)
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean D (flip)
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Lean D (flip)

Analysis Louisiana Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 9th
Primary: August 28th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    David Vitter - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Bobby Jindal - incumbent Governor
   2) Russell Honore - Lieutenant general
   3) John Cooksey - former U.S. Representative

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Charlie Melançon - U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1) John Bel Edwards - state representative
   2) Don Cazayoux - former U.S. Representative
  
David Vitter's approval rating
Approve: 1) 48%; 2) 50%; 3) 53%
Dissapprove: 1) 47%; 2) 44%; 3) 42%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 5%

General election polling      
David Vitter - Charlie Melançon - Undecided
        54%                    39%                      7%
        56%                    38%                      6%
        56%                    37%                      7%
        51%                    41%                      8%
        48%                    44%                      8%
        44%                    45%                     11%

Rating:

Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Lean R
RCP: Lean R
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Lean R

[😥]

Analysis Maryland Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 6th
Primary: September 14th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Barbara Mikulski - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Martin O'Malley - incumbent Governor
   2) John Sarbanes - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Jim Rutledge - attorney
    2) Eric Wargotz - Queen Anne's County Commissioner
    3-8) 6 perennial candidates
2.Declined:
   1) Michael Steele - former Lieutenant Governor, 2006 nominee
   2) Bob Ehrlich - former Governor

Barbara Mikulski's approval rating
Approve: 1) 65%; 2) 63%; 3) 67%
Dissapprove: 1) 29%; 2) 30%; 3) 28%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 7%; 3) 5%

General election polling      
Barbara Mikulski - Eric Wargotz - Undecided
            64%                      30%                 6%
            63%                      33%                 4%
            66%                      28%                 6%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Missouri Senate race 2010

15th January 2022
Candidates filing deadline: March 30th
Primary: August 3rd

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Roy Blunt - U.S. Representative, House Minority Whip
2.Declined:
   1) Kit Bond - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Sam Graves - U.S. Representative

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Robin Carnahan - Missouri Sos
2.Declined:
   1) Jay Nixon - incumbent Governor
   2) Ike Skelton - U.S. Representative
   3) Emanuel Cleaver - U.S. Representative
  
Kit Bond's approval rating
Approve: 1) 57%; 2) 59%; 3) 60%
Dissapprove: 1) 37%; 2) 34%; 3) 35%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 7%; 3) 5%

General election polling
Roy Blunt - Robin Carnahan - Undecided
     42%                   51%                    7%
     40%                   54%                    6%
     41%                   50%                    9%
     44%                   49%                    7%
     46%                   48%                    6%
     48%                   43%                    9%
     50%                   44%                    6%
     46%                   46%                    8%

Rating:

[Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis Nevada Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 12th
Primary: June 8th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Harry Reid - incumbent U.S. Senator, Senate Majority Leader
2.Declined:
   1) Shelley Berkley - U.S. Representative
   2) Dina Titus - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Sharron Angle - former state assemblywoman
    2) Sue Lowden - former state senator
    3) Danny Tarkanian - real estate owner
2.Declined:
   1) Dean Heller - U.S. Representative
   2) Jim Gibbons - former Governor

Polling
Angle - Lowden - Tarkanian - Undecided
   8%         27%            30%             35%
  11%       34%             35%             20%
  10%       42%             33%             15%
  15%       40%             32%             13%
  24%       31%             25%             20%
  32%       25%             28%             15%
  34%       26%             26%             14%

Harry Reid's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 46%; 3) 51%
Dissapprove: 1) 45%; 2) 48%; 3) 43%
Don't know: 1) 5%%; 2) 6%; 3) 6%

General election polling
Harry Reid - Sharron Angle - Undecided
       50%                  44%                 6%
       47%                  47%                 6%
       51%                  44%                 5%

Harry Reid - Sue Lowden - Undecided
       48%                 47%               5%
       45%                 47%               8%
       48%                 46%               6%

Harry Reid - Danny Tarkanian - Undecided
        53%                  40%                     7%
        50%                  45%                     5%
        53%                  41%                     6%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean D
CNN: Lean D
RCP: Lean D
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean D

Analysis New Hampshire Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 11th
Primary: September 14th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Kelly Ayotte - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Bill Binnie - businessman
   3) Ovide Lamontagne - 1992 congressional candidate, 1994 gubernatorial nominee
2.Declined:
   1) Charles Bass - former U.S. Representative
   2) John Sununu - former U.S. Senator
   3) Jeb Bradley - state senator, former U.S. Representative

Polling
Ayotte - Binnie - Lamontagne - Undecided
   50%      25%             19%                 6%
   46%      20%             23%                 7%
   43%      23%             27%                 7%
   40%      20%             31%                 9%
   39%      15%             38%                 8%

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte
President John McCain (R-AZ)
VP John Thune (R-SD)
Sec. Judd Gregg (R-NH)
Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Sec. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Sec. Heather Wilson (R-NM)
Fmr. Sen. John Sununu (R-NH)
Fmr. Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH)
Fmr. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH)
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
13 GOP Senators

Ovide Lamontagne
Fmr. VP Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Fmr. Sen. Gordon Humphrey (R-NH)
Steve Forbes
Laura Ingraham

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Paul Hodes - U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1) John Lynch - incumbent Governor
   2) Carol Shea-Porter - U.S. Representative

Kelly Ayotte's approval rating
Approve: 1) 37%; 2) 41%; 3) 40%
Dissapprove: 1) 37%; 2) 35%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 26%; 2) 24%; 3) 20%

General election polling   
Kelly Ayotte - Paul Hodes - Undecided     
        51%               40%                 9%
        47%               44%                 9%
        47%               46%                 7%
        43%               49%                 8%
        45%               50%                 5%
        48%               46%                 6%
        50%               43%                 7%
        52%               40%                 8%

Kelly Ayotte - John Lynch: 41% - 54%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Lean R
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis New York Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 15th
Primary: September 14th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Chuck Schumer - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Joe Crowley - U.S. Representative
   2) Gregory Meeks - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Gary Berntsen - retired CIA officer
    2) Jay Townsend - Republican strategist
2.Declined:
   1) George Pataki - former Governor
   2) Rudy Giuliani - former Mayor of NYC

Chuck Schumer's approval rating
Approve: 1) 62%; 2) 64%; 3) 61%
Dissapprove: 1) 34%; 2) 29%; 3) 34%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 7%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Chuck Schumer - Gary Berntsen- Undecided
           64%                      30%                  6%
           62%                      31%                  7%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis North Carolina Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: February 26th
Primary: May 4th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Richard Burr - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Potential:
    Greg Brannon - Tea Party activist
3.Declined:
   1) Cherie Berry - Labor Commissioner
   2) Phil Berger - state senator

Polling
Richard Burr - Greg Brannon: 58% - 34%

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Elaine Marshall - North Carolina SoS
   2) Mike McIntyre - U.S. Representative
   3) Cal Cunningham - former state senator
2.Declined:
   1) Bev Perdue - incumbent Governor
   2) Health Shuler - U.S. Representative

Polling
Marshall - McIntyre - Cunningham - Undecided
     34%           30%               30%                 6%
     36%           28%               24%                 9%
     33%           38%               21%                 8%
     30%           38%               24%                 8%
     34%           33%               27%                 6%

Richard Burr's approval rating
Approve: 1) 48%; 2) 50%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 47%; 2) 44%; 3) 46%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 4%

General election polling
Richard Burr - Elaine Marshall - Undecided
         47%                   47%                    6%
         49%                   44%                    7%
         50%                   45%                    5%
         46%                   48%                    6%
         43%                   50%                    7%
         42%                   51%                    7%

Richard Burr - Mike McIntyre - Undecided
         41%                  50%                   9%
         43%                  48%                   9%
         45%                  44%                  11%
         46%                  46%                   8%
         48%                  45%                   8%
         42%                  47%                  11%

Richard Burr - Cal Cunningham - Undecided
         48%                      45%                   7%
         49%                      44%                   7%
         50%                      41%                   9%
         46%                      47%                   7%
         43%                      51%                   6%
         40%                      52%                   8%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean D (flip)

[😥]

Analysis North Dakota Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 8th
Primary: June 8th

Democratic Party
1.Declared: none
2.Potential:
   1) Byron Dorgan - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Heidi Heitkamp - former state Attorney General
   3) Joel Heitkamp - former state senator
   4) Kristin Hedger - 2006 SoS nominee
3.Declined:
   1) Earl Pomeroy - U.S. Representative
   2) Ed Schultz - talk show host

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Kevin Cramer - Public Service Commissioner
2. Potential:
   1) John Hoeven - incumbent Governor
   2) Duane Sand - state senator
   3) Rick Berg - state representative
3.Declined:
    Al Jaeger - North Dakota SoS

Byron Dorgan's approval rating
Approve: 1) 61%; 2) 63%; 3) 60%
Dissapprove: 1) 30%; 2) 30%; 3) 35%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 7%; 3) 5%

General election polling
Byron Dorgan - Kevin Cramer - Undecided
         61%                    32%                 7%
         60%                    34%                 6%
         65%                    35%                  -

Byron Dorgan - John Hoeven - Undecided
         46%                    47%                 7%
         48%                    48%                 4%
         50%                    50%                  -

Byron Dorgan - Duane Sand - Undecided
         68%                   28%                4%
         67%                   27%                6%
         67%                   33%                 -

Byron Dorgan - Rick Berg - Undecided
         58%                 36%              6%
         56%                 37%              7%
         62%                 38%               -

Heidi Heitkamp - Kevin Cramer - Undecided
           55%                     40%                  5%
           53%                     41%                  6%
           57%                     43%                   -

Heidi Heitkamp - John Hoeven - Undecided
           44%                     49%                 7%
           45%                     50%                 5%
           46%                     54%                  -

Heidi Heitkamp - Duane Sand - Undecided
           56%                     39%               5%
           52%                     40%               8%
           57%                     43%                -

Heidi Heitkamp - Rick Berg - Undecided
           52%                 43%               5%
           50%                 43%               7%
           54%                 46%                 -

Joel Heitkamp - Kevin Cramer - Undecided
          53%                    39%                  8%
          51%                    44%                  5%
          55%                    45%                   -

Joel Heitkamp - John Hoeven - Undecided
          43%                     51%                 6%
          42%                     51%                 7%
          44%                     56%                  -

Joel Heitkamp - Duane Sand - Undecided
          54%                    43%                3%
          53%                    41%                6%
          56%                    44%                 -

Joel Heitkamp - Rick Berg - Undecided
          50%                 43%               7%
          50%                 43%               7%
          52%                 48%                -

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean D
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean D

Analysis Ohio Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: February 18th
Primary: May 4th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Rob Portman - former U.S. Representative, former U.S. Trade Representative, former Director of OMB
2.Declined:
   1) George Voinovich - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) John Kasich - former U.S. Representative
   3) Mary Taylor - state Treasurer

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Jennifer Brunner - Ohio SoS
   2) Lee Fisher - Lieutenant Governor
2.Declined:
   1) Tim Ryan - U.S. Representative
   2) Marcy Kaptur - U.S. Representative
   3) John Boccieri - U.S. Representative

Polling
Jennifer Brunner - Lee Fisher - Undecided
            30%                    48%              22%
            34%                    50%              16%
            35%                    51%              14%
            40%                    49%              11%
            42%                    46%              12%

George Voinovich's approval rating
Approve: 1) 63%; 2) 65%; 3) 69%
Dissapprove: 1) 27%; 2) 30%; 3) 24%
Don't know: 1) 10%; 2) 5%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Rob Portman - Jennifer Brunner - Undecided
         44%                       49%                    7%
         45%                       48%                    7%
         45%                       50%                    5%
         43%                       51%                    6%
         46%                       46%                    8%
         43%                       49%                    8%

Rob Portman - Lee Fisher - Undecided
         45%                 47%               8%
         45%                 49%               6%
         47%                 47%               6%
         45%                 48%               7%
         49%                 45%               6%
         44%                 47%               9%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean D (flip)
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Lean D (flip)
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis Oklahoma Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 9th
Primary: July 27th, August 24th (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Tom Coburn - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Evelyn Rogers
2.Declined:
    Mary Fallin - U.S. Representative
  
Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    1) Jim Rogers - retired college professor
    2) Mark Myles - businessman
2.Declined:
   1) Dan Boren - U.S. Representative
   2) Brad Henry - incumbent Governor

Tom Coburn's approval rating
Approve: 1) 67%; 2) 65%; 3) 64%
Dissapprove: 1) 29%; 2) 28%; 3) 30%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 7%; 3) 6%

General election polling
No polling

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

Analysis Oregon Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 9th
Primary: May 18th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Ron Wyden - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Kurt Schrader - U.S. Representative
   2) Peter DeFazio - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Shane Dinkel - U.S. Army officer
    2) Jim Huffman - law professor
    3) Loren Later - businessman
    4) Thomas Stutzman - real estate broker
    5) Keith Waldron - farmer
2. Declined:
   1) Greg Walden - U.S. Representative
   2) Dennis Richardson - state representative

Ron Wyden's approval rating
Approve: 1) 57%; 2) 55%; 3) 55%
Dissapprove: 1) 33%; 2) 37%; 3) 38%
Don't know: 1) 10%; 2) 8%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Ron Wyden - Jim Huffman - Undecided
        60%                  35%                 5%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Likely D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

[😥]

Analysis Pennsylvania Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 9th
Primary: May 18th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Arlen Specter - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Pat Toomey - former U.S. Representative, 2004 candidate
2. Potential:
    Charlie Dent - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Tom Ridge - former Governor
   2) Jim Gerlach - U.S. Representative

Polling
Arlen Specter - Pat Toomey - Undecided
          39%                  50%               11%
          41%                  49%               10%
          44%                  47%                9%
          48%                  45%                7%
          43%                  49%                8%

Arlen Specter - Pat Toomey - Charlie Dent: 26% - 40% - 25%

Endorsements

Arlen Specter
President John McCain (R-AZ)
VP John Thune (R-AZ)
33 GOP Senators, notable:
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Rep. Todd Platts (R-PA)
Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA)
Rep. Joe Pitts (R-PA)
Rep. Bill Shuster (R-PA)
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA)
Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-PA)
Fmr. Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA)

Pat Toomey
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Joe Sestak - U.S. Representative
2. Potential:
    1) Kathy Dahlkemper - U.S. Representative
    2) Allyson Schwartz - U.S. Representative
    3) Ed Rendell - incumbent Governor
    4) Josh Shapiro - state representative
3.Declined:
   1) Chris Carney - U.S. Representative
   2) Bob Brady - U.S. Representative
   3) Patrick Murphy - U.S. Representative

Polling
Sestak - Dahlkemper - Schwartz - Rendell - Shapiro - Undecided
   19%             15%               22%           27%         6%              11%
   41%             35%                 -                 -              -                  24%
   45%               -                   35%             -              -                  20%
   35%               -                     -                51%         -                  14%
   53%               -                     -                  -            25%             22%
   27%             26%               32%             -              -                 15%
   23%             20%                 -               46%          -                 11%
   35%             30%                 -                 -            16%             19%
   25%               -                     -               54%        14%              7%
   18%               -                    23%          50%          -                  9%
   34%               -                    37%            -            14%             15%

Arlen Specter's approval rating
Approve: 1) 46%; 2) 50%; 3) 49%
Dissapprove: 1) 47%; 2) 45%; 3) 46%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 5%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Arlen Specter - Joe Sestak - Undecided
        49%                  45%                 6%
        51%                  41%                 8%
        52%                  43%                 5%
        45%                  49%                 6%
        46%                  46%                 8%

Arlen Specter - Kathy Dahlkemper - Undecided
        49%                         42%                      9%
        50%                         44%                      6%
        45%                         48%                      7%
        46%                         48%                      6%

Arlen Specter - Allyson Schwartz - Undecided
        51%                       43%                       6%
        51%                       44%                       5%
        47%                       44%                       9%
        48%                       45%                       7%

Arlen Specter - Ed Rendell - Undecided
        47%                   48%              5%
        46%                   46%              8%
        44%                   49%              7%
        43%                   51%              6%

Arlen Specter - Josh Shapiro - Undecided
        52%                    40%                  8%
        50%                    43%                  7%
        46%                    45%                  9%
        46%                    46%                  8%

Pat Toomey - Joe Sestak - Undecided
        45%                 50%               5%
        43%                 51%               6%
        40%                 52%               8%
        40%                 52%               8%
        41%                 51%               8%

Pat Toomey - Kathy Dahlkemper - Undecided
        47%                       46%                      7%
        45%                       46%                      9%
        41%                       50%                      9%
        40%                       53%                      7%

Pat Toomey - Allyson Schwartz - Undecided
        45%                    48%                       7%
        44%                    49%                       7%
        43%                    50%                       7%
        44%                    48%                       8%

Pat Toomey - Ed Rendell - Undecided
        40%               54%                6%
        38%               55%                7%
        39%               53%                8%
        38%               57%                5%

Pat Toomey - Josh Shapiro - Undecided
        47%                  46%                 7%
        44%                  50%                 6%
        43%                  49%                 8%
        43%                  50%                 7%

Charlie Dent - Joe Sestak: 47%-47%
Charlie Dent - Kathy Dahlkemper: 45%-46%
Charlie Dent - Allyson Schwartz: 47%-45%
Charlie Dent - Ed Rendell: 43%-50%
Charlie Dent - Josh Shapiro: 49%-44%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis South Carolina Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 30th
Primary: June 8th, June 22nd (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Jim DeMint - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Charlie Condon - former state Attorney General, McCain's 2008 SC campaign chair, 2004 candidate
2. Potential:
    David Beasley - former Governor, 2004 candidate
2.Declined:
   1) Mark Sanford - incumbent Governor
   2) Gresham Barrett - U.S. Representative

Polling
Jim DeMint - Charlie Condon - Undecided
       62%                    32%                   6%
       59%                    33%                   8%
       55%                    38%                   7%
       56%                    35%                   9%
       51%                    39%                  10%
       52%                    42%                   6%

Endorsements

Jim DeMint
Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC)
Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC)
Gov. Sonny Perdue (R-GA)
Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID)
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)
Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
Sen. Kay Hutchinson (R-TX)
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)
Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT)
Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY)

Charlie Condon
President John McCain (R-AZ)
VP John Thune (R-SD)
Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Sec. Joe Lieberman (ID-CT)
Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA)
Sen. Bob Inglis (R-SC)
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK)
Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO)
Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH)
Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA)
Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN)
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    1) Joyce Dickerson - Richland County Councilwoman
    2) Alvin Greene - U.S. Army veteran
2.Declined:
   1) Jim Clyburn - U.S. Representative
   2) John Spratt - U.S. Representative

Jim DeMint's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 46%; 3) 49%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%; 2) 45%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 11%; 2) 9%; 3) 11%

General election polling 
Jim DeMint - Joyce Dickerson - Undecided
       59%                   37%                      4%

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

Analysis South Carolina special Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 30th
Primary: June 8th, June 22nd (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Bob Inglis - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Joe Wilson - U.S. Representative
2. Potential:
   1) David Beasley - former Governor, 2004 candidate
   2) Gresham Barrett - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Mark Sanford - incumbent Governor
   2) Henry Brown - U.S. Representative

Polling
Bob Inglis - Joe Wilson - Undecided
      46%              47%               7%
      46%              46%               8%
      49%*            44%               7% (Poll for Inglis campaign)
      47%              45%               8%
      44%              49%               7%
      42%              50%               8%

Endorsements

Bob Inglis
President John McCain (R-AZ)
VP John Thune (R-SD)
Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Sec. Joe Lieberman (ID-CT)
Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA)
32 GOP Senators, notable:
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY)

Joe Wilson
Fmr. President George Bush (R-TX)
Fmr. VP Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Vic Rawl - Charleston county councilman
2.Declined:
   1) Jim Clyburn - U.S. Representative
   2) John Spratt - U.S. Representative

Bob Inglis's approval rating
Approve: 1) 47%; 2) 49%; 3) 46%
Dissapprove: 1) 40%; 2) 40%; 3) 39%
Don't know: 1) 13%; 2) 11%; 3) 15%

General election polling
Bob Inglis - Vic Rawl - Undecided
      57%             33%           10%

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Likely R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R