McCain and Blue Dogs (2010, 2012 election: process and results)

[😥]

Analysis Florida Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: April 30th
Primary: August 24th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Kendrick Meek - U.S. Representative
   2) Jeff Greene - businessman
2.Potential:
   1) Buddy Dyer - Mayor of Orlando
   2) Pam Iorio - Mayor of Tampa
   3) Kathy Castor - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Allen Boyd - U.S. Representative
   2) Ted Deutch - U.S. Representative
   3) Ron Klein - U.S. Representative

Polling
Meek - Greene - Dyer - Iorio - Castor - Undecided
  60%       32%        -          -            -                 8%
  31%       20%      43%      -            -                 6%
  25%       15%      32%    23%       -                 5%
  19%       10%      25%    13%      27%            6%
  22%       11%      30%      -          30%             7%
  24%       14%        -         22%     33%             7%
  29%       20%        -          -          46%             5%
  34%       16%        -         40%       -                10%

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Marco Rubio - Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives
    2) Charlie Crist - Governor of Florida
2.Potential:
    Mario Diaz-Balart - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Connie Mack IV - U.S. Representative
   2) Adam Putnam - U.S. Representative
   3) Jeb Bush - former Governor

Polling
Charlie Crist - Marco Rubio - Undecided
        60%                   33%                 7%
        54%                   40%                 6%
        50%                   45%                 5%
        53%                   39%                 8%

Endorsements

Charlie Crist
× John McCain (R-AZ), President of the USA
× John Thune (R-SD), Vice President of the USA
× Fmr. Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL)
× Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
× Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
× Sen. George LeMieux (R-FL)
× Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA)
× Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
× Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
× Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL)
× Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL)
× House Min. Leader John Boehner (R-OH)
× Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
× Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
× NRSC

Marco Rubio
× Fmr. Pres. George Bush (R-TX)
× Fmr. VP Dick Cheney (R-WY)
× Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL)
× Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
× Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
× Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
× Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
× Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)
× Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
× Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
× Rep. Jeff Miller (R-FL)
× Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R-FL)
× Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

George LeMieux's approval rating
Approve: 1) 45%; 2) 41%; 3) 40%
Dissapprove: 1) 35%; 2) 34%; 3) 38%
Don't know: 1) 20%; 2) 25%; 3) 22%

General election polling        
Marco Rubio - Kendrick Meek - Undecided
         46%                     46%                   8%
         47%                     44%                   9%
         44%                     45%                  11%

Marco Rubio - Jeff Greene - Undecided
         48%                 42%                10%
         49%                 40%                11%
         47%                 43%                10%

Marco Rubio - Buddy Dyer - Undecided
         43%                 45%                12%
         43%                 50%                 7%
         42%                 49%                 9%

Marco Rubio - Kathy Castor - Undecided
         46%                  46%                 8%
         44%                  49%                 7%
         46%                  47%                 7%

Marco Rubio - Pam Iorio - Undecided
         46%                41%             13%
         45%                43%             12%
         46%                45%              9%

Charlie Crist - Kendrick Meek - Undecided
         49%                   44%                  7%
         50%                   42%                  8%
         50%                   43%                  7%

Charlie Crist - Jeff Greene - Undecided
         51%                   41%              8%
         50%                   40%             10%
         52%                   41%              7%

Charlie Crist - Buddy Dyer - Undecided
         46%                 46%                8%
         46%                 47%                7%
         45%                 45%               10%

Charlie Crist - Kathy Castor- Undecided
         48%                 45%                  7%
         46%                 47%                  7%
         49%                 44%                  7%

Charlie Crist - Pam Iorio - Undecided
         49%               41%              10%
         45%               40%              15%
         47%               43%              10%

Charlie Crist (R) - Marco Rubio (I) - Generic D - Undecided
          39%                       12%                    38%              11%
          40%                       10%                    39%              11%
          41%                       15%                    44%                -

Marco Rubio (R) - Charlie Crist (I) - Generic D - Undecided
          29%                        33%                   25%              13%
          27%                        34%                   28%              11%
          30%                        37%                   33%                -

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis Georgia Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 21st
Primary: July 20th, August 10th (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Johnny Isakson - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Sonny Perdue - incumbent Governor
   2) Paul Broun - U.S. Representative
   3) Tom Price - U.S. Representative

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Mike Thurmond - Commissioner of Labor
2.Potential:
   1) Jim Marshall - U.S. Representative
   2) Shirley Franklin - former Mayor of Atlanta
   3) Sanford Bishop - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) David Scott - U.S. Representative
   2) Hank Johnson - U.S. Representative
   3) Roy Barnes - former Governor (running for Governor)

Johnny Isakson's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 53%; 3) 52%
Dissapprove: 1) 41%; 2) 40%; 3) 42%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 7%; 3) 6%

General election polling
Johnny Isakson - Mike Thurmond - Undecided
           54%                        40%                    6%
           55%                        38%                    7%
           53%                        41%                    6%

Johhny Isakson - Jim Marshall - Undecided
          48%                        46%                 6%
          46%                        46%                 8%
          45%                        47%                 8%

Johnny Isakson - Shirley Franklin - Undecided
          44%                        48%                    8%
          43%                        50%                    7%
          44%                        49%                    7%

Johnny Isakson - Sanford Bishop - Undecided
           47%                        47%                    6%
           48%                        45%                    7%
           47%                        46%                    7%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Lean R
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Lean R

Analysis Hawaii Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 20th
Primary: September 18th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Daniel Inouye - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Neil Abercrombie - U.S. Representative
   2) Ed Case - former U.S. Representative, 2006 candidate

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Campbell Cavasso - former U.S. Representative, 2000 nominee
    2) Eddie Perkowski - businessman
    3) John Roco
2.Declined:
     Linda Lingle - incumbent Governor

No Polling

Daniel Inouye's approval rating
Approve: 1) 64%; 2) 66%; 3) 67%
Dissapprove: 1) 26%; 2) 28%; 3) 28%
Don't know: 1) 10%; 2) 6%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Daniel Inouye - Campbell Cavasso - Undecided
         68%                         28%                      4%
         67%                         27%                      6%
         65%                         27%                      8%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Idaho Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 19th
Primary: May 25th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Mike Crapo - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Skip Davis
2.Declined:
    Mike Simpson - U.S. Representative
  
Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Tom Sullivan - merchant banker
2.Declined:
   Walt Minnick - Democratic nominee for ID-01 in 2008 (running for ID-01)

Mike Crapo's approval rating
Approve: 1) 56%; 2) 59%; 3) 59%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%; 2) 35%; 3) 32%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 9%

General election polling
No polling

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

[😥]

Analysis Illinois Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: November 2nd, 2009
Primary: February 2nd

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Alexi Giannoulias - state Treasurer
   2) David Hoffman - Chicago inspector general
   3) Cheryle Jackson - President of Chicago Urban League
   4) Rahm Emanuel - U.S. Representative
   5) Tammy Duckworth - former Director of Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs
   6) Robert Marshall - doctor
2.Declined:
   1) Barack Obama - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Dan Lipinski - U.S. Representative
   3) Debbie Halvorson - U.S. Representative
   4) Jerry Costello Jr. - U.S. Representative

Endorsements

Alexi Giannoulias
Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL)

Rahm Emanuel
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)
Rep. Philip Hare (D-IL)
Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL)

Tammy Duckworth
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Rep. Bobby Rush (D-IL)
Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL)
Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL)
Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL)
Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Polling
Alexi Giannoulias - David Hoffman - Cheryle Jackson - Rahm Emanuel - Tammy Duckworth - Robert Marshall - Undecided
             15%                       10%                         11%                       31%                       24%                            3%                      6%
             17%                       12%                          9%                        30%                       25%                            2%                      5%
             17%                        8%                          13%                       30%                       25%                            2%                      5%
             14%                       14%                         10%                       28%                       23%                            2%                      9%
             14%                       13%                         10%                       28%                       28%                            2%                      5%

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Mark Kirk - U.S. Representative
    2) Patrick Hudges - Chairman of Sensible Taxpayers Opposed to Increased Taxes
2.Declined:
   1) John Shimkus - U.S. Representative
   2) Aaron Schock - U.S. Representative

Polling
Mark Kirk - Patrick Hudges - Undecided
       69%                 26%                   5%
       68%                 24%                   8%
       68%                 23%                   9%

Barack Obama's approval rating
Approve: 1) 65%; 2) 67%; 3) 66%
Dissapprove: 1) 29%; 2) 27%; 3) 29%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 6%; 3) 5%

General election polling
Alexi Giannoulias - Mark Kirk - Undecided
            50%                     43%             7%
            48%                     45%             7%
            49%                     42%             9%
            46%                     46%             8%
            49%                     44%             7%
            48%                     43%             9%

David Hoffman - Mark Kirk - Undecided
         47%                    47%             6%
         46%                    45%             9%
         45%                    45%            10%
         45%                    48%             7%
         44%                    46%            10%
         47%                    46%             7%

Cheryle Jackson - Mark Kirk - Undecided
            46%                    46%             8%
            45%                    46%             9%
            46%                    45%             9%
            47%                    47%             6%
            46%                    46%             8%
            45%                    46%             9%

Rahm Emanuel - Mark Kirk - Undecided
          50%                   42%              8%
          51%                   43%              6%
          52%                   43%              5%
          53%                   42%              5%
          52%                   40%              8%
          53%                   41%              6%

Tammy Duckworth - Mark Kirk - Undecided
             49%                       42%             9%
             51%                       42%             7%
             52%                       42%             6%
             54%                       39%             7%
             52%                       40%             8%
             53%                       40%             7%

Hypothetical:
Barack Obama - Mark Kirk: 66% - 28%

Rating:

Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Likely D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Likely D
CNN: Lean D
RCP: Lean D
Fox News: Likely D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Indiana Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: February 19th
Primary: May 4th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Evan Bayh - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Brad Ellsworth - U.S. Representative
   2) Baron Hill - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) John Hostettler - former U.S. Representative
    2) Marlin Stutzman - state Senator
2.Potential:
  Mitch Daniels - incumbent Governor
3. Declined:
   1) Mike Pence - U.S. Representative
   2) Dan Coats - former U.S. Senator

Polling
John Hostettler - Marlin Stutzman - Undecided
           50%                         42%                    8%
           44%                         49%                    7%
           46%                         46%                    8%

John Hostettler - Marlin Stutzman - Mitch Daniels - Undecided
          16%                          19%                      59%                  6%
          16%                          14%                      62%                  8%
          14%                          17%                      64%                  5%

Evan Bayh's approval rating
Approve: 1) 64%; 2) 66%; 3) 67%
Dissapprove: 1) 28%; 2) 29%; 3) 27%
Don't know: 1) 8%; 2) 5%; 3) 6%

General election polling        
Evan Bayh - John Hostettler - Undecided
       65%                    28%                 7%
       62%                    30%                 8%
       66%                    28%                 6%

Evan Bayh - Marlin Stutzman - Undecided
       65%                    29%                    6%
       64%                    29%                    7%
       64%                    31%                    5%

Evan Bayh - Mitch Daniels - Undecided
       54%                41%                  5%
       51%                43%                  6%
       52%                44%                  4%

Rating:

Cook: Likely D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Likely D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Likely D

[😥]

Analysis Iowa Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 19th
Primary: June 8th

Republican Party
1.Declared: none
2.Potential:
   1) Chuck Grassley - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Steve King - U.S. Representative
   3) Tom Latham - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Terry Branstad - former Governor
   2) Jim Nussle - former U.S. Representative

Polling
Steve King - Tom Latham: 37% - 59%

Democratic Party
1.Declared: none
2.Potential:
   1) Tom Vilsack - incumbent Governor
   2) Dave Loebsack - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Bruce Braley - U.S. Representative
   2) Chet Culver - incumbent Governor

Polling
Tom Vilsack - Dave Loebsack: 65% - 29%

Chuck Grassley's approval rating
Approve: 1) 53%; 2) 50%; 3) 49%
Dissapprove: 1) 42%; 2)44%; 3) 43%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 8%

General election polling
Chuck Grassley - Tom Vilsack - Undecided
          46%                      47%                 7%
          43%                      49%                 8%
          42%                      50%                 8%
          40%                      53%                 7%
          42%                      52%                 6%
          43%                      51%                 6%


Chuck Grassley - Dave Loebsack - Undecided
          48%                        46%                    6%
          47%                        47%                    6%
          45%                        48%                    8%
          46%                        46%                    8%
          46%                        47%                    7%
          45%                        47%                    8%

Steve King - Tom Vilsack - Undecided
        29%               60%               11%
        32%               59%                9%
        28%               62%               10%
        30%               63%                7%

Steve King - Dave Loebsack - Undecided
       33%                  57%                   10%
       34%                  58%                    8%
       35%                  56%                    9%
       31%                  62%                    7%

Tom Latham - Tom Vilsack - Undecided
        40%                   54%               10%
        41%                   52%                7%
        37%                   54%                9%

Tom Latham - Dave Loebsack - Undecided
        40%                    52%                     8%
        45%                    49%                     6%
        43%                    50%                     7%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

Analysis Kansas Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 10th
Primary: August 3rd

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Todd Tiahrt - U.S. Representative
   2) Jerry Moran - U.S. Representative
   3) Bob Londerholm - former state Attorney General
2.Potential:
   Kris Kobach - former Chair of Kansas Republican Party
3.Declined:
   1) Sam Brownback - incumbent Senator
   2) Lynn Jenkins - U.S. Representative
   3) Jim Ryun - former U.S. Representative

Polling
Todd Tiahrt - Jerry Moran - Undecided
        50%                46%                 4%
        47%                47%                 6%
        44%                50%                 6%
        48%                45%                 8%
        49%                45%                 7%

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) David Haley - state senator
   2) Lisa Johnston - administrator at Baker University
2. Potential:
    Kathleen Sebelius - incumbent Governor
3.Declined:
   1) Mark Parkinson - incumbent Lieutenant Governor
   2) Dennis Moore - U.S. Representative

Polling
David Haley - Lisa Johnston - Undecided
        14%                  22%                  64%
        10%                  18%                  72%

Kathleen Sebelius - Others: 87% - 8%

Sam Brownback's approval rating
Approve: 1) 54%; 2) 57%; 3) 58%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%; 2) 34%; 3) 35%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 9%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Jerry Moran - Lisa Johnston - Undecided
        63%                   32%                  5%
        64%                   28%                  8%
        61%                   33%                  6%

Jerry Moran - David Haley - Undecided
        65%                  29%               6%
        62%                  30%               8%
        61%                  32%               7%

Todd Tiahrt - Lisa Johnston - Undecided
        62%                 32%                   6%
        62%                 30%                   8%
        63%                 31%                   6%

Todd Tiahrt - David Haley - Undecided
        63%                 31%               6%
        64%                 30%               6%
        60%                 33%               7%

Generic Republican - Kathleen Sebelius - Undecided
              46%                              48%                      6%
              43%                              50%                      7%
              42%                              50%                      8%
              45%                              46%                      9%
              45%                              47%                      8%

Rating:

Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Lean R
RCP: Lean R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Lean R

[😥]

Analysis Kentucky Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: January 26th
Primary: May 18th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Trey Grayson - Kentucky SoS
    2) Rand Paul - ophthalmologist
    3) John Stephenson
    4) Gurley Marti
2. Potential:
    1) Jim Bunning - incumbent U.S. Senator
    2) Ernie Fletcher - former Governor
3.Declined:
   1) Brett Guthrie - U.S. Representative
   2) Geoff Davis - U.S. Representative

Polling
Trey Grayson - Rand Paul - Undecided
          49%                42%               9%

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Jack Conway - state Attorney General
   2) Daniel Mongiardo - Lieutenant Governor, 2004 nominee
   3) Darlene Price - former U.S. Customs agent
2.Declined:
   1) Ben Chandler - U.S. Representative
   2) John Yarmuth - U.S. Representative
   3) Steve Beshear - incumbent Governor

Polling
Jack Conway - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
         46%                       46%                       8%

Jim Bunning's approval rating
Approve: 1) 30%; 2) 31%; 3) 32%
Dissapprove: 1) 64%; 2) 65%; 3) 63%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 4%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Trey Grayson - Jack Conway - Undecided
         43%                    47%                10%
         44%                    48%                 8%
         44%                    50%                 6%

Trey Grayson - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
         41%                       50%                      9%
         41%                       49%                     10%
         42%                       51%                      7%

Rand Paul - Jack Conway - Undecided
       46%                49%                 5%
       44%                48%                 8%
       46%                47%                 7%

Rand Paul - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
       44%                   50%                      6%
       45%                   48%                      7%
       43%                   50%                      7%

Jim Bunning - Jack Conway - Undecided
        40%                    54%                 6%
        38%                    55%                 7%
        38%                    52%                10%

Jim Bunning - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
        38%                       55%                      7%
        37%                       56%                      7%
        38%                       53%                      9%

Ernie Fletcher - Jack Conway - Undecided
         42%                     53%                 5%
         42%                     52%                 6%
         42%                     54%                 4%

Ernie Fletcher - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
         41%                        55%                     4%
         41%                        54%                     5%
         38%                        54%                     8%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean D (flip)
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean D (flip)
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Lean D (flip)

Analysis Louisiana Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 9th
Primary: August 28th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    David Vitter - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Bobby Jindal - incumbent Governor
   2) Russell Honore - Lieutenant general
   3) John Cooksey - former U.S. Representative

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Charlie Melançon - U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1) John Bel Edwards - state representative
   2) Don Cazayoux - former U.S. Representative
  
David Vitter's approval rating
Approve: 1) 48%; 2) 50%; 3) 53%
Dissapprove: 1) 47%; 2) 44%; 3) 42%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 5%

General election polling      
David Vitter - Charlie Melançon - Undecided
        54%                    39%                      7%
        56%                    38%                      6%
        56%                    37%                      7%
        51%                    41%                      8%
        48%                    44%                      8%
        44%                    45%                     11%

Rating:

Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Lean R
RCP: Lean R
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Lean R

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lol at Fox still having KY as Lean R

[😥]

Analysis Maryland Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 6th
Primary: September 14th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Barbara Mikulski - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Martin O'Malley - incumbent Governor
   2) John Sarbanes - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Jim Rutledge - attorney
    2) Eric Wargotz - Queen Anne's County Commissioner
    3-8) 6 perennial candidates
2.Declined:
   1) Michael Steele - former Lieutenant Governor, 2006 nominee
   2) Bob Ehrlich - former Governor

Barbara Mikulski's approval rating
Approve: 1) 65%; 2) 63%; 3) 67%
Dissapprove: 1) 29%; 2) 30%; 3) 28%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 7%; 3) 5%

General election polling      
Barbara Mikulski - Eric Wargotz - Undecided
            64%                      30%                 6%
            63%                      33%                 4%
            66%                      28%                 6%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Missouri Senate race 2010

15th January 2022
Candidates filing deadline: March 30th
Primary: August 3rd

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Roy Blunt - U.S. Representative, House Minority Whip
2.Declined:
   1) Kit Bond - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Sam Graves - U.S. Representative

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Robin Carnahan - Missouri Sos
2.Declined:
   1) Jay Nixon - incumbent Governor
   2) Ike Skelton - U.S. Representative
   3) Emanuel Cleaver - U.S. Representative
  
Kit Bond's approval rating
Approve: 1) 57%; 2) 59%; 3) 60%
Dissapprove: 1) 37%; 2) 34%; 3) 35%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 7%; 3) 5%

General election polling
Roy Blunt - Robin Carnahan - Undecided
     42%                   51%                    7%
     40%                   54%                    6%
     41%                   50%                    9%
     44%                   49%                    7%
     46%                   48%                    6%
     48%                   43%                    9%
     50%                   44%                    6%
     46%                   46%                    8%

Rating:

[Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis Nevada Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 12th
Primary: June 8th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Harry Reid - incumbent U.S. Senator, Senate Majority Leader
2.Declined:
   1) Shelley Berkley - U.S. Representative
   2) Dina Titus - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Sharron Angle - former state assemblywoman
    2) Sue Lowden - former state senator
    3) Danny Tarkanian - real estate owner
2.Declined:
   1) Dean Heller - U.S. Representative
   2) Jim Gibbons - former Governor

Polling
Angle - Lowden - Tarkanian - Undecided
   8%         27%            30%             35%
  11%       34%             35%             20%
  10%       42%             33%             15%
  15%       40%             32%             13%
  24%       31%             25%             20%
  32%       25%             28%             15%
  34%       26%             26%             14%

Harry Reid's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 46%; 3) 51%
Dissapprove: 1) 45%; 2) 48%; 3) 43%
Don't know: 1) 5%%; 2) 6%; 3) 6%

General election polling
Harry Reid - Sharron Angle - Undecided
       50%                  44%                 6%
       47%                  47%                 6%
       51%                  44%                 5%

Harry Reid - Sue Lowden - Undecided
       48%                 47%               5%
       45%                 47%               8%
       48%                 46%               6%

Harry Reid - Danny Tarkanian - Undecided
        53%                  40%                     7%
        50%                  45%                     5%
        53%                  41%                     6%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean D
CNN: Lean D
RCP: Lean D
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean D

Analysis New Hampshire Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 11th
Primary: September 14th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Kelly Ayotte - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Bill Binnie - businessman
   3) Ovide Lamontagne - 1992 congressional candidate, 1994 gubernatorial nominee
2.Declined:
   1) Charles Bass - former U.S. Representative
   2) John Sununu - former U.S. Senator
   3) Jeb Bradley - state senator, former U.S. Representative

Polling
Ayotte - Binnie - Lamontagne - Undecided
   50%      25%             19%                 6%
   46%      20%             23%                 7%
   43%      23%             27%                 7%
   40%      20%             31%                 9%
   39%      15%             38%                 8%

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte
President John McCain (R-AZ)
VP John Thune (R-SD)
Sec. Judd Gregg (R-NH)
Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Sec. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Sec. Heather Wilson (R-NM)
Fmr. Sen. John Sununu (R-NH)
Fmr. Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH)
Fmr. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH)
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
13 GOP Senators

Ovide Lamontagne
Fmr. VP Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Fmr. Sen. Gordon Humphrey (R-NH)
Steve Forbes
Laura Ingraham

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Paul Hodes - U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1) John Lynch - incumbent Governor
   2) Carol Shea-Porter - U.S. Representative

Kelly Ayotte's approval rating
Approve: 1) 37%; 2) 41%; 3) 40%
Dissapprove: 1) 37%; 2) 35%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 26%; 2) 24%; 3) 20%

General election polling   
Kelly Ayotte - Paul Hodes - Undecided     
        51%               40%                 9%
        47%               44%                 9%
        47%               46%                 7%
        43%               49%                 8%
        45%               50%                 5%
        48%               46%                 6%
        50%               43%                 7%
        52%               40%                 8%

Kelly Ayotte - John Lynch: 41% - 54%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Lean R
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis New York Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 15th
Primary: September 14th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Chuck Schumer - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Joe Crowley - U.S. Representative
   2) Gregory Meeks - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Gary Berntsen - retired CIA officer
    2) Jay Townsend - Republican strategist
2.Declined:
   1) George Pataki - former Governor
   2) Rudy Giuliani - former Mayor of NYC

Chuck Schumer's approval rating
Approve: 1) 62%; 2) 64%; 3) 61%
Dissapprove: 1) 34%; 2) 29%; 3) 34%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 7%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Chuck Schumer - Gary Berntsen- Undecided
           64%                      30%                  6%
           62%                      31%                  7%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis North Carolina Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: February 26th
Primary: May 4th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Richard Burr - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Potential:
    Greg Brannon - Tea Party activist
3.Declined:
   1) Cherie Berry - Labor Commissioner
   2) Phil Berger - state senator

Polling
Richard Burr - Greg Brannon: 58% - 34%

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Elaine Marshall - North Carolina SoS
   2) Mike McIntyre - U.S. Representative
   3) Cal Cunningham - former state senator
2.Declined:
   1) Bev Perdue - incumbent Governor
   2) Health Shuler - U.S. Representative

Polling
Marshall - McIntyre - Cunningham - Undecided
     34%           30%               30%                 6%
     36%           28%               24%                 9%
     33%           38%               21%                 8%
     30%           38%               24%                 8%
     34%           33%               27%                 6%

Richard Burr's approval rating
Approve: 1) 48%; 2) 50%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 47%; 2) 44%; 3) 46%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 4%

General election polling
Richard Burr - Elaine Marshall - Undecided
         47%                   47%                    6%
         49%                   44%                    7%
         50%                   45%                    5%
         46%                   48%                    6%
         43%                   50%                    7%
         42%                   51%                    7%

Richard Burr - Mike McIntyre - Undecided
         41%                  50%                   9%
         43%                  48%                   9%
         45%                  44%                  11%
         46%                  46%                   8%
         48%                  45%                   8%
         42%                  47%                  11%

Richard Burr - Cal Cunningham - Undecided
         48%                      45%                   7%
         49%                      44%                   7%
         50%                      41%                   9%
         46%                      47%                   7%
         43%                      51%                   6%
         40%                      52%                   8%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean D (flip)

[😥]

Analysis North Dakota Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 8th
Primary: June 8th

Democratic Party
1.Declared: none
2.Potential:
   1) Byron Dorgan - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Heidi Heitkamp - former state Attorney General
   3) Joel Heitkamp - former state senator
   4) Kristin Hedger - 2006 SoS nominee
3.Declined:
   1) Earl Pomeroy - U.S. Representative
   2) Ed Schultz - talk show host

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Kevin Cramer - Public Service Commissioner
2. Potential:
   1) John Hoeven - incumbent Governor
   2) Duane Sand - state senator
   3) Rick Berg - state representative
3.Declined:
    Al Jaeger - North Dakota SoS

Byron Dorgan's approval rating
Approve: 1) 61%; 2) 63%; 3) 60%
Dissapprove: 1) 30%; 2) 30%; 3) 35%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 7%; 3) 5%

General election polling
Byron Dorgan - Kevin Cramer - Undecided
         61%                    32%                 7%
         60%                    34%                 6%
         65%                    35%                  -

Byron Dorgan - John Hoeven - Undecided
         46%                    47%                 7%
         48%                    48%                 4%
         50%                    50%                  -

Byron Dorgan - Duane Sand - Undecided
         68%                   28%                4%
         67%                   27%                6%
         67%                   33%                 -

Byron Dorgan - Rick Berg - Undecided
         58%                 36%              6%
         56%                 37%              7%
         62%                 38%               -

Heidi Heitkamp - Kevin Cramer - Undecided
           55%                     40%                  5%
           53%                     41%                  6%
           57%                     43%                   -

Heidi Heitkamp - John Hoeven - Undecided
           44%                     49%                 7%
           45%                     50%                 5%
           46%                     54%                  -

Heidi Heitkamp - Duane Sand - Undecided
           56%                     39%               5%
           52%                     40%               8%
           57%                     43%                -

Heidi Heitkamp - Rick Berg - Undecided
           52%                 43%               5%
           50%                 43%               7%
           54%                 46%                 -

Joel Heitkamp - Kevin Cramer - Undecided
          53%                    39%                  8%
          51%                    44%                  5%
          55%                    45%                   -

Joel Heitkamp - John Hoeven - Undecided
          43%                     51%                 6%
          42%                     51%                 7%
          44%                     56%                  -

Joel Heitkamp - Duane Sand - Undecided
          54%                    43%                3%
          53%                    41%                6%
          56%                    44%                 -

Joel Heitkamp - Rick Berg - Undecided
          50%                 43%               7%
          50%                 43%               7%
          52%                 48%                -

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean D
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean D

Analysis Ohio Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: February 18th
Primary: May 4th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Rob Portman - former U.S. Representative, former U.S. Trade Representative, former Director of OMB
2.Declined:
   1) George Voinovich - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) John Kasich - former U.S. Representative
   3) Mary Taylor - state Treasurer

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Jennifer Brunner - Ohio SoS
   2) Lee Fisher - Lieutenant Governor
2.Declined:
   1) Tim Ryan - U.S. Representative
   2) Marcy Kaptur - U.S. Representative
   3) John Boccieri - U.S. Representative

Polling
Jennifer Brunner - Lee Fisher - Undecided
            30%                    48%              22%
            34%                    50%              16%
            35%                    51%              14%
            40%                    49%              11%
            42%                    46%              12%

George Voinovich's approval rating
Approve: 1) 63%; 2) 65%; 3) 69%
Dissapprove: 1) 27%; 2) 30%; 3) 24%
Don't know: 1) 10%; 2) 5%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Rob Portman - Jennifer Brunner - Undecided
         44%                       49%                    7%
         45%                       48%                    7%
         45%                       50%                    5%
         43%                       51%                    6%
         46%                       46%                    8%
         43%                       49%                    8%

Rob Portman - Lee Fisher - Undecided
         45%                 47%               8%
         45%                 49%               6%
         47%                 47%               6%
         45%                 48%               7%
         49%                 45%               6%
         44%                 47%               9%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean D (flip)
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Lean D (flip)
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

Analysis Oklahoma Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 9th
Primary: July 27th, August 24th (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Tom Coburn - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Evelyn Rogers
2.Declined:
    Mary Fallin - U.S. Representative
  
Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    1) Jim Rogers - retired college professor
    2) Mark Myles - businessman
2.Declined:
   1) Dan Boren - U.S. Representative
   2) Brad Henry - incumbent Governor

Tom Coburn's approval rating
Approve: 1) 67%; 2) 65%; 3) 64%
Dissapprove: 1) 29%; 2) 28%; 3) 30%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 7%; 3) 6%

General election polling
No polling

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

Analysis Oregon Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 9th
Primary: May 18th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Ron Wyden - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Kurt Schrader - U.S. Representative
   2) Peter DeFazio - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Shane Dinkel - U.S. Army officer
    2) Jim Huffman - law professor
    3) Loren Later - businessman
    4) Thomas Stutzman - real estate broker
    5) Keith Waldron - farmer
2. Declined:
   1) Greg Walden - U.S. Representative
   2) Dennis Richardson - state representative

Ron Wyden's approval rating
Approve: 1) 57%; 2) 55%; 3) 55%
Dissapprove: 1) 33%; 2) 37%; 3) 38%
Don't know: 1) 10%; 2) 8%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Ron Wyden - Jim Huffman - Undecided
        60%                  35%                 5%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Likely D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

[😥]

Analysis Pennsylvania Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 9th
Primary: May 18th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Arlen Specter - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Pat Toomey - former U.S. Representative, 2004 candidate
2. Potential:
    Charlie Dent - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Tom Ridge - former Governor
   2) Jim Gerlach - U.S. Representative

Polling
Arlen Specter - Pat Toomey - Undecided
          39%                  50%               11%
          41%                  49%               10%
          44%                  47%                9%
          48%                  45%                7%
          43%                  49%                8%

Arlen Specter - Pat Toomey - Charlie Dent: 26% - 40% - 25%

Endorsements

Arlen Specter
President John McCain (R-AZ)
VP John Thune (R-AZ)
33 GOP Senators, notable:
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Rep. Todd Platts (R-PA)
Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA)
Rep. Joe Pitts (R-PA)
Rep. Bill Shuster (R-PA)
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA)
Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-PA)
Fmr. Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA)

Pat Toomey
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Joe Sestak - U.S. Representative
2. Potential:
    1) Kathy Dahlkemper - U.S. Representative
    2) Allyson Schwartz - U.S. Representative
    3) Ed Rendell - incumbent Governor
    4) Josh Shapiro - state representative
3.Declined:
   1) Chris Carney - U.S. Representative
   2) Bob Brady - U.S. Representative
   3) Patrick Murphy - U.S. Representative

Polling
Sestak - Dahlkemper - Schwartz - Rendell - Shapiro - Undecided
   19%             15%               22%           27%         6%              11%
   41%             35%                 -                 -              -                  24%
   45%               -                   35%             -              -                  20%
   35%               -                     -                51%         -                  14%
   53%               -                     -                  -            25%             22%
   27%             26%               32%             -              -                 15%
   23%             20%                 -               46%          -                 11%
   35%             30%                 -                 -            16%             19%
   25%               -                     -               54%        14%              7%
   18%               -                    23%          50%          -                  9%
   34%               -                    37%            -            14%             15%

Arlen Specter's approval rating
Approve: 1) 46%; 2) 50%; 3) 49%
Dissapprove: 1) 47%; 2) 45%; 3) 46%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 5%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Arlen Specter - Joe Sestak - Undecided
        49%                  45%                 6%
        51%                  41%                 8%
        52%                  43%                 5%
        45%                  49%                 6%
        46%                  46%                 8%

Arlen Specter - Kathy Dahlkemper - Undecided
        49%                         42%                      9%
        50%                         44%                      6%
        45%                         48%                      7%
        46%                         48%                      6%

Arlen Specter - Allyson Schwartz - Undecided
        51%                       43%                       6%
        51%                       44%                       5%
        47%                       44%                       9%
        48%                       45%                       7%

Arlen Specter - Ed Rendell - Undecided
        47%                   48%              5%
        46%                   46%              8%
        44%                   49%              7%
        43%                   51%              6%

Arlen Specter - Josh Shapiro - Undecided
        52%                    40%                  8%
        50%                    43%                  7%
        46%                    45%                  9%
        46%                    46%                  8%

Pat Toomey - Joe Sestak - Undecided
        45%                 50%               5%
        43%                 51%               6%
        40%                 52%               8%
        40%                 52%               8%
        41%                 51%               8%

Pat Toomey - Kathy Dahlkemper - Undecided
        47%                       46%                      7%
        45%                       46%                      9%
        41%                       50%                      9%
        40%                       53%                      7%

Pat Toomey - Allyson Schwartz - Undecided
        45%                    48%                       7%
        44%                    49%                       7%
        43%                    50%                       7%
        44%                    48%                       8%

Pat Toomey - Ed Rendell - Undecided
        40%               54%                6%
        38%               55%                7%
        39%               53%                8%
        38%               57%                5%

Pat Toomey - Josh Shapiro - Undecided
        47%                  46%                 7%
        44%                  50%                 6%
        43%                  49%                 8%
        43%                  50%                 7%

Charlie Dent - Joe Sestak: 47%-47%
Charlie Dent - Kathy Dahlkemper: 45%-46%
Charlie Dent - Allyson Schwartz: 47%-45%
Charlie Dent - Ed Rendell: 43%-50%
Charlie Dent - Josh Shapiro: 49%-44%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think PA will depend on who the GOP nominates. If GOP nominates Specter I think incumbency advantage will give Specter the edge, if they nominate Toomey I think not having incumbency advantage in a 10 year itch will give Sestak the edge

[John King wannabe]

I expect Hillary would run no matter what if Obama lost in 2008, and would immediately be the front runner

[😥]

Analysis South Carolina Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 30th
Primary: June 8th, June 22nd (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Jim DeMint - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Charlie Condon - former state Attorney General, McCain's 2008 SC campaign chair, 2004 candidate
2. Potential:
    David Beasley - former Governor, 2004 candidate
2.Declined:
   1) Mark Sanford - incumbent Governor
   2) Gresham Barrett - U.S. Representative

Polling
Jim DeMint - Charlie Condon - Undecided
       62%                    32%                   6%
       59%                    33%                   8%
       55%                    38%                   7%
       56%                    35%                   9%
       51%                    39%                  10%
       52%                    42%                   6%

Endorsements

Jim DeMint
Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC)
Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC)
Gov. Sonny Perdue (R-GA)
Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID)
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)
Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
Sen. Kay Hutchinson (R-TX)
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)
Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT)
Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY)

Charlie Condon
President John McCain (R-AZ)
VP John Thune (R-SD)
Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Sec. Joe Lieberman (ID-CT)
Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA)
Sen. Bob Inglis (R-SC)
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK)
Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO)
Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH)
Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA)
Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN)
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    1) Joyce Dickerson - Richland County Councilwoman
    2) Alvin Greene - U.S. Army veteran
2.Declined:
   1) Jim Clyburn - U.S. Representative
   2) John Spratt - U.S. Representative

Jim DeMint's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 46%; 3) 49%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%; 2) 45%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 11%; 2) 9%; 3) 11%

General election polling 
Jim DeMint - Joyce Dickerson - Undecided
       59%                   37%                      4%

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

Analysis South Carolina special Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 30th
Primary: June 8th, June 22nd (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Bob Inglis - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Joe Wilson - U.S. Representative
2. Potential:
   1) David Beasley - former Governor, 2004 candidate
   2) Gresham Barrett - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Mark Sanford - incumbent Governor
   2) Henry Brown - U.S. Representative

Polling
Bob Inglis - Joe Wilson - Undecided
      46%              47%               7%
      46%              46%               8%
      49%*            44%               7% (Poll for Inglis campaign)
      47%              45%               8%
      44%              49%               7%
      42%              50%               8%

Endorsements

Bob Inglis
President John McCain (R-AZ)
VP John Thune (R-SD)
Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Sec. Joe Lieberman (ID-CT)
Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA)
32 GOP Senators, notable:
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY)

Joe Wilson
Fmr. President George Bush (R-TX)
Fmr. VP Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Vic Rawl - Charleston county councilman
2.Declined:
   1) Jim Clyburn - U.S. Representative
   2) John Spratt - U.S. Representative

Bob Inglis's approval rating
Approve: 1) 47%; 2) 49%; 3) 46%
Dissapprove: 1) 40%; 2) 40%; 3) 39%
Don't know: 1) 13%; 2) 11%; 3) 15%

General election polling
Bob Inglis - Vic Rawl - Undecided
      57%             33%           10%

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Likely R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

[😥]

Analysis South Dakota Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 30th
Primary: June 8th, June 29th (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Matt Michels - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Mike Rounds - incumbent Governor
   2) Dennis Daugaard - Lieutenant Governor

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Tom Daschle - former U.S. Senator, former Senate Majority Leader
2.Declined:
   1) Stephanie Herseth - U.S. Representative
   2) Scott Heidepriem - state Senate Minority Leader

Matt Michels's approval rating
Approve: 1) 44%; 2) 46%; 3) 44%
Dissapprove: 1) 36%; 2) 37%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 20%; 2) 17%; 3) 16%

General election polling  
Matt Michels - Tom Daschle - Undecided
        48%                    44%                 8%
        45%                    47%                 8%
        44%                    50%                 6%
        42%                    51%                 7%
        41%                    50%                 9%
        40%                    53%                 7%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean D (flip)
Sabato: Lean D (flip)
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean D (flip)
Daily Kos: Lean D (flip)

Analysis Utah Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 19th
Primary: June 22th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Bob Bennett - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Mike Lee - attorney
   3) Tim Bridgewater - businessman
   4) Merrill Cook - former U.S. Representative
   5) Cherilyn Eagar - businesswoman
2.Declined:
    1) Rob Bishop - U.S. Representative
    2) Jason Chaffetz - U.S. Representative

Polling
Bennett - Lee - Bridgewater - Cook - Eagar - Undecided
    20%      35%          17%            5%       9%           14%
    19%      36%          19%            4%      10%         12%
    17%      34%          23%            6%      10%         10%

Endorsements

Bob Bennett
President John McCain (R-AZ)
Sec. Joe Lieberman (I/D-CT)
Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY)
Fmr. Sen. Jake Garn (R-UT)
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)

Mike Lee
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)
Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)
Fmr. Rep. Dick Armey (R-TX)
Fmr. Rep. Jim Hansen (R-UT)
Fmr. Gov. Norm Bangerter (R-UT)
State Att. Gen. Mark Shurtleff (R-UT)
Tea Party
Republican Liberty Caucus

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Sam Granato - businessman
2.Declined:
   Jim Matheson - U.S. Representative

Bob Bennett's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 48%; 3) 46%
Dissapprove: 1) 43%; 2) 44%; 3) 45%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 8%; 3) 9%

General election polling        
No polling

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

[😥]

Analysis Vermont Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 17th
Primary: August 24th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Patrick Leahy - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Peter Welch - U.S. Representative
   2) Peter Shumlin - incumbent Governor

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Len Britton - businessman
2.Declined:
    Scott Mline - businessman

Patrick Leahy's approval rating
Approve: 1) 65%; 2) 65%; 3) 68%
Dissapprove: 1) 24%; 2) 28%; 3) 28%
Don't know: 1) 11%; 2) 7%; 3) 4%

General election polling        
No polling

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Washington Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 11th
Primary: August 17th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Patty Murray - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Jay Inslee - U.S. Representative
   2) Adam Smith - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Dino Rossi - former state senator
    2) Clint Didier - former NFL player
    3) Paul Akers - salesman
2.Declined:
   1) Dave Reichert - U.S. Representative
   2) Cathy McMorris Rogers - U.S. Representative

Patty Murray's approval rating
Approve: 1) 55%; 2) 56%; 3) 53%
Dissapprove: 1) 38%; 2) 39%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 5%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Patty Murray - Dino Rossi - Undecided
       58%                  37%               5%
       55%                  39%               6%

Rating:

Cook: Likely D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Likely D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Likely D
Fox News: Likely D
Daily Kos: Safe D

[😥]

Analysis West Virginia special Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: January 30th
Primary: May 11th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Joe Manchin - incumbent Governor
   2) Ken Hechler - former U.S. Representative and former WV SoS
2.Declined:
   1) Nick Rahall - U.S. Representative
   2) Carte Goodwin - incumbent U.S. Senator

Polling
Joe Manchin - Ken Hechler - Undecided
         70%                  23%                7%

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    John Raese - businessman
2.Declined:
   1) Shelley Moore Capito - U.S. Representative
   2) Don Blankenship - CEO of Massey Energy

Carte Goodwin's approval rating
Approve: 1) 40%; 2) 42%; 3) 43%
Dissapprove: 1) 28%; 2) 30%; 3) 29%
Don't know: 1) 32%; 2) 28%; 3) 27%

General election polling    
Joe Manchin - John Raese - Undecided
         60%                  36%               4%
         57%                  37%               6%
         61%                  34%               5%

Rating:

Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Likely D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Likely D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Wisconsin Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 13th
Primary: September 14th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Russ Feingold - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Tammy Baldwin - U.S. Representative
   2) Ron Kind - U.S. Representative
  
Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Ron Johnson - businessman
    2) Dave Westlake - businessman
    3) Dick Leinenkugel - former state Commerce Secretary
2. Potential:
    Tommy Thompson - former Governor, former U.S. Secretary of HHS
3.Declined:
   1) Paul Ryan - U.S. Representative
   2) Tom Petri - U.S. Representative

Russ Feingold's approval rating
Approve: 1) 49%; 2) 47%; 3) 47%
Dissapprove: 1) 45%; 2) 46%; 3) 46%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 7%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Russ Feingold - Ron Johnson - Undecided
         49%                    43%                  8%
         50%                    43%                  7%
         51%                    44%                  5%
         49%                    45%                  6%
         48%                    46%                  6%

Russ Feingold - Tommy Thompson - Undecided
         46%                         47%                       7%
         45%                         50%                       5%
         47%                         47%                       6%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

Sorry for such a long and boring part of TL (all of this analysis), I will change the format for 2012 Senate election.

Now this TL will be little more interesting, I'm going to post primary results in states and intentions of potential presidential candidates.

[😥]

18th January 2010
Breaking news: Josh Shapiro declined to run for U.S. Senator of PA

State representative Josh Shapiro, a rising star in the Democratic Party, declined to run for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, will run instead for Pennsylvania Attorney General in 2012

19th January 2010
Breaking news: Charlie Dent declined to run in PA Senate race

U.S. Representative Charlie Dent, who publicly announced the opportunity to run and his willingness to be a compromise candidate in the primary between Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey, today declined to run and endorsed Specter, calling Toomey "an extremist, who doesn't deserve to be elected Pennsylvania Senator"

January 20th, 2010
Hillary Clinton and 2012
Close allies of former President Bill Clinton and Senator Hillary Clinton have told reporters that the former First Lady is preparing to run in 2012. It is expected that in April this year, she will announce her campaign in Chicago, Illinois

21st January 2010
Breaking news: Ernie Fletcher declined to run for KY Senate seat

Former Governor Ernie Fletcher, who was defeated in landslide in 2007, declined to run for US Senator and decided to retire from politics

24th January 2010
Breaking news: U.S. Senator Jim Bunning decided to run again

U.S. Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) will run for his seat again. For about two years, Republican leaders in the Senate persuaded him to retire. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) personally assured McCain in December 2009 that Bunning ill retire, but today Bunning unexpectedly announced that he will run again. He will face doctor Rand Paul and Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson in Republican

[😥]

26th January 2010
Breaking news: Governor Rendell declined to run for U.S. Senate

Popular incumbent Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania Ed Rendell will run for reelection. Decided not to jump into PA Senate race

31st January 2010
Breaking news: David Hoffman drops out Illinois Senate race

David Hoffman drops out Illinois Senate race, makes no endorsement

1st February 2010
Breaking news: Greg Brannon will run against Richard Burr in NC Republican primary

Tea Party activist Greg Brannon launched campaign to unseat incumbent Senator Richard Burr. He is endorsed by U.S. Senator Jim DeMint and North Carolina Tea Party. Another McCain's ally will fight against Tea Party in primary

2nd February 2010
Breaking news: Kathy Dahlkemper enters PA Senate race

U.S. Representative Kathy Dahlkemper, moderate Democrat jumps into PA Senate race. She was heavily backed by U.S. Senator and 2008 VP nominee Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA). She will face another U.S. Representative Joe Sestak in Democratic primary

February 2nd, 2010
Breaking news: Barack Obama said he will not run for President in 2012 and/or 2016

Retiring U.S. Senator, 2008 Democratic presidential nominee and 2010 Democratic candidate for Governor of Illinois Barack Obama said he isn't interested in another presidential running, preferred focus on gubernatorial job

February 11th, 2010
Erie, Pennsylvania

U.S. Senator Bob Casey publicly announced his support for the U.S. Representative Kathy Dahlkemper at her campaign event. She is running for U.S. Senate

Also, the rally was attended by U.S. Senators Evan Bayh, Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson and U.S. Representatives Nick Rahall and Jim Oberstar. They all are founders of "Blue Dogs for an American Future"

After the rally, Bob Casey Jr. talked to Evan Bayh for a very long time. It was about a potential campaign in 2012. Both are seen as favorites from their coalition. Representative Nick Rahall was present during their conversation and is believed to have persuaded one of them not to run. After the meeting, both were quite dissatisfied, despite the friendly relations between them, they did not agree on who will run.

Senator Casey then flew with Kent Conrad to Chicago, Illinois, where Senator Obama, a 2008 Democratic presidential nominee, was at the time to enlist his support and talk to BDAF co-founder Dan Lipinski to become a national co-chair of Casey's campaign in future.

So Casey decided to seek support outside the BDAF, which was criticized by one of the House's most influential members, the Armed Services Committee Chair Ike Skelton. Evan Bayh tried to get as much internal support as possible. The endorsement that would be made by Obama would automatically give the candidate leadership with African American voters.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Surprised Feingold isn’t ahead by more

[😥]

2nd February 2010
Illinois primary results

Senate

Democratic primary

10% Reporting
Rahm Emanuel 35.29%
Tammy Duckworth 27.65%
Cheryle Jackson 15.06%
Alexi Giannoulias 14.58%
David Hoffman (withdrew) 4.21%
Robert Marshall 3.21%

50% Reporting
Rahm Emanuel 32.29%
Tammy Duckworth 28.67%
Alexi Giannoulias 18.16%
Cheryle Jackson 13.32%
David Hoffman (withdrew) 4.93%
Robert Marshall 2.63%

99.9% Reporting
Tammy Duckworth 32.28%
Rahm Emanuel 31.24%
Alexi Giannoulias 17.21%
Cheryle Jackson 11.42%
David Hoffman (withdrew) 5.07%
Robert Marshall 2.78%

Republican primary
Mark Kirk 72.57%
Patrick Hudges 27.43%

Polling (last two months)
Tammy Duckworth - Mark Kirk - Undecided
              51%                      43%             6%
              50%                      42%             8%
              52%                      43%             5%
              51%                      40%             9%
              50%                      44%             6%
              49%                      42%             9%
              48%                      45%             7% (Kirk internal)
              50%                      43%             7%
              54%                      39%             7% (Duckworth internal)
              49%                      45%             6%

Rating:

Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Safe D (previous: Likely D)
Sabato: Likely D (previous: Safe D)
NYT: Likely D
CNN: Likely D (previous: Lean D)
RCP: Likely D (previous: Lean D)
Fox News: Likely D
Daily Kos: Safe D

House

IL-01
Democratic primary: Bobby Rush* 79.70%
Republican primary: Ray Wardingley unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-02
Democratic primary: Jesse Jackson Jr.* unopposed
Republican primary: Isaac Hayes unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-03
Democratic primary: Dan Lipinski* 78.89%
Republican primary: Michael Bendas unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-04
Democratic primary: Luis Gutierrez* unopposed
Republican primary: Israel Vasquez unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-05
Democratic primary: Mike Quigley 22.45%
Republican primary: David Ratowitz 39.64%

Incumbent Rahm Emanuel (D) retired to run for US Senator

Rating: Safe D

IL-06
Republican primary: Peter Roskam* unopposed
Democratic primary: Sean Casten 62.89%
Rating: Lean R

IL-07
Democratic primary: Danny Davis* 66.77%
Republican primary: Mark Weiman unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-08
Democratic primary: Melissa Bean* unopposed
Republican primary: Joe Walsh 34.16%
Rating: Lean D

IL-09
Democratic primary: Jan Schakowsky* unopposed
Republican primary: Joel Pollak unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-10
Republican primary: Bob Dold 38.03%
Democratic primary: Brad Schneider 34.67%

Incumbent Mark Kirk (R) retired to run for US Senator

Rating: Lean D (pick-up)

IL-11
Democratic primary: Debbie Halvorson* unopposed
Republican primary: Adam Kinzinger 63.67%
Rating: Tossup

IL-12
Democratic primary: Jerry Costello* unopposed
Republican primary: Theresa Kormos 51.76%
Rating: Likely D

IL-13
Republican primary: Judy Biggert* unopposed
Democratic primary: Tom Cullerton 57.59%
Rating: Lean R

IL-14
Democratic primary: Bill Foster* unopposed
Republican primary: Randy Hultgren 54.71%
Rating: Lean D

IL-15
Republican primary: Tim Johnson* unopposed
Democratic primary: David Gill unopposed
Rating: Lean R

IL-16
Republican primary: Don Manzullo* unopposed
Democratic primary: George Gaulrapp
Rating: Safe R

IL-17
Democratic primary: Phil Hare* unopposed
Republican primary: Bobby Schilling unopposed
Rating: Lean D

IL-18
Republican primary: Aaron Schock* unopposed
Democratic primary: Carl Ray unopposed
Rating: Safe R

IL-19
Republican primary: John Shimkus* 85.34%
Democratic primary: Tim Bagwell unopposed
Rating: Safe R

Battleground districts
Held by Republicans: IL-06, IL-10, IL-13, IL-15
Held by Democrats: IL-08, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17
Possible battlegrounds: IL-12

Governor

Democratic primary
Barack Obama 78.52%
Pat Quinn* 21.48%

Republican primary
Bill Brady 24.16%
Jim Ryan 23.39%
Andy McKenna 21.89%
Adam Andrzejewski 17.63%
Dan Profit 7.39%
Robert Schillerstrom 5.54%

Polling (last two months)
Barack Obama - Bill Brady - Undecided
          61%                 35%              4%
          60%                 33%              7%
          62%                 33%              5%
          57%                 35%              8% (Brady internal)
          64%                 31%              5%
          66%                 29%              5%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

[😥]

15th February 2010
Breaking news: Mitch Daniels declined to run for U.S. Senate

Popular Governor of Indiana, only candidate, who would be competitive against Evan Bayh in general election, declined to run. "I want to serve the people of Indiana, not sit in Washington," Daniels said. He was repeatedly mentioned as a potential presidential candidate in 2012

18th February 2010
Breaking news: Gresham Barrett declined to run for U.S. Senate

U.S. Representative Gresham Barrett (R-SC), one of the most conservative members of U.S. House of Representatives, declines to run for both Senate seats in South Carolina, endorses Jim DeMint and Joe Wilson, respectively

20th February 2010
Breaking news: Bud Cramer declined to run for U.S. Senate or/and Governor

Former Congressman Bud Cramer (D-AL), who has been mentioned many times as a potential rival to Senator Shelby, has refused to run for the Senate or Governors. He announced that he was completely ending his public career

21st February 2010
Breaking news: Buddy Dyer decided not to run for Senate

Buddy Dyer will not run for U.S. Senate in Florida, said he would prepare to run for governor

24th February 2010
Breaking news: Tom Vilsack enters Senate race in Iowa

Former Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack, who served from 1999 to 2007, declared his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Iowa. He is the strongest potential Democrat rival in Iowa. Most polls show his leadership over Grassley by double digits

25th February 2010
Breaking news: Dave Loebsack declined to run for US Senate

Shortly after Tom Vilsack's decision to run, U.S. Representative Dave Loebsack decided to run for reelection, declined to run for U.S. Senate, leaving Vilsack as only Democratic candidate

26th February 2010
Breaking news: David Beasley enters Senate race in SC

Former Governor David Beasley, who served from 1995 to 1999, decided to run for U.S. Senate special election in South Carolina. He run for Senate in 2004, and now running for other Senate seat. He had long wanted to run against Jim DeMint, but the presence in the race McCain-backed Charlie Condon, who was endorsed by the entire Republican establishment, forced him to give up this. Later he announced his candidacy against Bob Inglis and Joe Wilson

[😥]

28th February 2010
Breaking news: Chuck Grassley will not for reelection

Longtime U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) declined to run for reelection, said he was thinking of running for governor. Most experts agree that this decision was prompted by the popular former Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack running against him. Instead, Governor's race is more winnable for Grassley

1st March 2010
Breaking news: John Hoeven declined to run for U.S. Senate

Governor John Hoeven (R-ND) declined to run for U.S. Senate. The popular Republican governor is the only candidate who could defeat incumbent Democrat Byron Dorgan. He had the lead over Dorgan in almost all previous polls

2nd March 2010
Breaking news: Duane Sand, Rick Berg will run for Senate in ND

State legislators Duane Sand and Rick Berg enter North Dakota Senate race after John Hoeven declined to run. After Hoeven's decision, most experts agreed that the place was safe for Democrats

3rd March 2020
Breaking news: Allyson Schwartz declined to run for U.S. Senate

U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania Allyson Schwartz decided not to run for Senate, instead will run for reelection

7th March 2010
Breaking news: Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) will run for reelection

Breaking news: Heidi and Joel Heitkamps, Kristin Hedger declined to run

Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) decided to run for reelection. "I promise it will be my last term." It was expected that if Governor John Hoeven ran, Dorgan would retire. Following Hoeven's decision, Dorgan consulted with Senate Democratic Caucus and North Dakota Democratic Party leaders and decided to run again.

Heidi and Joel Heitkamps and Kristin Hedger, who were often mentioned as potential candidates, refused to run

5th March 2010
Breaking news: Tom Latham will not run for U.S. Senate

U.S. Representative Tom Latham (R-IA), who was considered the strongest Republican candidate after Chuck Grassley, decided not to run for the U.S. Senate, will run for reelection instead

8th March 2010
Breaking news: Steve King enters Iowa Senate race

U.S. Representative Steve King, known for his odious racist and Nazi statements, has announced that he will run for the U.S. Senate in Iowa. Nomination of him means an automatic loss of Senate seat for Republicans, many experts agree

[OSR stands with Israel]

With Grassley not running for reelection and Hoeven declining to run, the senate results could be an utter disaster for the GOP