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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Uncle Ruckus, No Relation., Apocrypha)
  McCain and Blue Dogs (2010, 2012 election: process and results)
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Author Topic: McCain and Blue Dogs (2010, 2012 election: process and results)  (Read 1401 times)
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 5,409
Ukraine


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« on: June 18, 2020, 09:46:03 am »

I will write a new TL, similar to my old "2020 Senate election: process and results", only more expanded and improved about the 2010 and 2012 elections

So, first:

Prologue

Importnat change from real life
* - incumbent

2002 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election
Democratic primary
Bob Casey Jr. 52.61%
Ed Rendell 47.39%

General election
Bob Casey Jr. (D) 56.34%
Mike Fisher (R) 41.02%
Democratic gain

2006 Pennsylvania Senate election
Bob Casey Jr. decided to run for Senate against Republican Rick Santorum under pressure from many local and national figures of Democratic party. All polls showed that he was only Democrat who could beat Santorum
Bob Casey Jr. approval: 72% Approve, 20% Disapprove

Bob Casey Jr. (D) 61.23%
Rick Santorum* (R) 37.95%
Democratic gain

2006 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election

Ed Rendell 56.59%
Lynn Swann 42.41%
Democratic hold


2008 Presidential election results

Final Obama's VP shortlist included three candidates: U.S. Senator from Delaware Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Indiana
and former Governor Evan Bayh, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania and former Governor Bob Casey Jr.. He chose Casey



Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Sen. John Thune (R-SD) 273 EVs; 46.8% PV
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA) 265 EVs; 49.9% PV

Next post: 2008 Senate and House results, McCain inauguration and Cabinet

I plan to start the main part of TL after 2-3 more posts
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 5,409
Ukraine


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Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2020, 02:25:35 am »

2008 Senate elections



Democrats: 56 (+5)
Republicans: 44 (-5)

D gain: CO, NH, NM, NC, VA

Competitive races results (decided by less than 10%):

Alaska
Ted Stevens* (R) 47.89%
Mark Begich (D) 46.28%
Republican hold

Colorado
Mark Udall (D) 49.85%
Bob Schaffer (R) 44.28%
Democratic gain

Georgia
Saxby Chambliss* (R) 51.38%
Jim Martin (D) 45.23%
Republican hold

Kentucky
Mitch McConnell* (R) 54.62%
Bruce Lunsford (D) 45.38%
Republican hold

Louisiana
Mary Landrieu* (D) 50.12%
John Neely Kennedy (R) 48.77%
Democratic hold

Minnesota
Norm Coleman* (R) 43.87%
Al Franken (D) 41.03%
Republican hold

New Hampshire
Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49.15%
John Sununu* (R) 48.67%
Democratic gain

North Carolina
Kay Hagan (D) 50.16%
Elizabeth Dole* (R) 47.09%
Democratic gain

Oregon
Gordon Smith* (R) 47.32%
Jeff Merkley (D) 47.29%
Republican hold


2008 House elections

Democrats: 241 (+5)
Republicans: 194 (-5)

AL-01: Jo Bonner* (R)
AL-02: Jay Love (R)
AL-03: Mike Rogers* (R)
AL-04: Robert Aderholt* (R)
AL-05: Wayne Parker (R)
AL-06: Spencer Bachus* (R)
AL-07: Artur Davis* (D)

AK-AL: Don Young* (R)


AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
AZ-02: Trent Franks* (R)
AZ-03: John Shadegg* (R)
AZ-04: Ed Pastor* (D)
AZ-05: Harry Mitchell* (D)

AZ-06: Jeff Flake* (R)
AZ-07: Raul Grijalva* (D)
AZ-08: Gabrielle Giffords* (D)

AR-01: Marion Berry* (D)
AR-02: Vic Snyder* (D)

AR-03: John Boozman* (R)
AR-04: Mike Ross* (D)

CA-01: Mike Thompson* (D)

CA-02: Wally Herger* (R)
CA-03: Dan Lungren* (R)
CA-04: Tom McClintock (R)
CA-05: Doris Matsui* (D)
CA-06: Lynn Woolsey* (D)
CA-07: George Miller* (D)
CA-08: Nancy Pelosi* (D)
CA-09: Barbara Lee* (D)
CA-10: Ellen Tauscher* (D)
CA-11: Jerry McNerney* (D)
CA-12: Jackie Speier* (D)
CA-13: Pete Stark* (D)
CA-14: Anna Eshoo* (D)
CA-15: Mike Honda* (D)
CA-16: Zoe Lofgren* (D)
CA-17: Sam Farr* (D)
CA-18: Dennis Cardoza* (D)

CA-19: George Radanovich* (R)
CA-20: Jim Costa* (D)
CA-21: Devin Nunes* (R)
CA-22: Kevin McCarthy* (R)
CA-23: Lois Capps* (D)
CA-24: Elton Gallegly* (R)
CA-25: Howard McKeon* (R)
CA-26: David Dreier* (R)
CA-27: Brad Sherman* (D)
CA-28: Howard Berman* (D)
CA-29: Adam Schiff* (D)
CA-30: Henry Waxman* (D)
CA-31: Xavier Becerra* (D)
CA-32: Hilda Solis* (D)
CA-33: Diane Watson* (D)
CA-34: Lucille Royball-Allard* (D)
CA-35: Maxine Waters* (D)
CA-36: Jane Harman* (D)
CA-37: Laura Richardson* (D)
CA-38: Grace Napolitano* (D)
CA-39: Linda Sanchez* (D)

CA-40: Ed Royce* (R)
CA-41: Jerry Lewis* (R)
CA-42: Garry Miller* (R)
CA-43: Joe Baca* (D)
CA-44: Ken Calvert* (R)
CA-45: Mary Bono* (R)
CA-46: Dana Rohrabacher* (R)
CA-47: Loretta Sanchez* (D)
CA-48: John Campbell* (R)
CA-49: Darrell Issa* (R)
CA-50: Brian Bilbray* (R)
CA-51: Bob Filner* (D)
CA-52: Duncan D. Hunter (R)

CA-53: Susan Davis* (D)

CO-01: Diana DeGette* (D)
CO-02: Jared Polis (D)
CO-03: John Salazar* (D)

CO-04: Betsy Markey (D)
CO-05: Doug Lamborn* (R)
CO-06: Mike Coffman (R)

CO-07: Ed Perlmutter* (D)

CT-01: John Larson* (D)
CT-02: Joe Courtney* (D)
CT-03: Rosa DeLauro* (D)

CT-04: Chris Shays* (R)
CT-05: Chris Murphy* (D)

DE-AL: Mike Castle* (R)

FL-01: Jeff Miller* (R)
FL-02: Allen Boyd* (D)
FL-03: Corrine Brown* (D)

FL-04: Ander Crenshaw* (R)
FL-05: Ginny Brown-Waite* (R)
FL-06: Cliff Stearns* (R)
FL-07: John Mica* (R)
FL‐08: Ric Keller* (R)
FL-09: Gus Bilirakis* (R)
FL-10: Bill Young* (R)
FL-11: Kathy Castor* (D)
FL-12: Adam Putnam* (R)
FL-13: Vern Buchanan* (R)
FL-14: Connie Mack IV* (R)
FL-15: Bill Posey (R)
FL-16: Tom Rooney (R)
FL‐17: Kendrick Meek* (D)
FL-18: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen* (R)
FL-19: Robert Wexler* (D)
FL-20: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz* (D)

FL-21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart* (R)
FL-22: Ron Klein* (D)
FL-23: Alcee Hastings* (D)

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas (D)
FL-25: Mario Diaz-Balart* (R)

GA-01: Jack Kingston* (R)
GA-02: Sanford Bishop* (D)
GA-03: Lynn Westmoreland* (R)
GA-04: Hank Johnson* (D)
GA-05: John Lewis* (D)

GA-06: Tom Price* (R)
GA-07: John Linder* (R)
GA-08: Jim Marshall* (D)
GA-09: Nathan Deal* (R)
GA-10: Paul Broun* (R)
GA-11: Phil Gingrey* (R)

GA-12: John Barrow* (D)
GA-13: David Scott* (D)

HI-01: Neil Abercrombie* (D)
HI-02: Mazie Hirono* (D)

ID-01: Bill Sali* (R)
ID-02: Mike Simpson* (R)


IL-01: Bobby Rush* (D)
IL-02: Jesse Jackson Jr.* (D)
IL-03: Dan Lipinski* (D)
IL-04: Luis Gutierrez* (D)
IL-05: Rahm Emanuel* (D)
IL-06: Peter Roskam* (R)
IL-07: Danny Davis* (D)
IL-08: Melissa Bean* (D)
IL-09: Jan Schakowsky* (D)
IL-10: Mark Kirk* (R)
IL-11: Debbie Halvorson (D)
IL-12: Jerry Costello* (D)
IL-13: Judy Biggert* (R)
IL-14: Bill Foster* (D)
IL-15: Tim Johnson* (R)
IL-16: Donald Manzullo* (R)

IL-17: Phil Hare* (D)
IL-18: Aaron Schock (R)
IL-19: John Schimkus* (R)


IN-01: Pete Visclosky* (D)
IN-02: Joe Donnelly* (D)
IN-03: Mark Souder* (R)
IN-04: Steve Buyer* (R)
IN-05: Dan Burton* (R)
IN-06: Mike Pence* (R)

IN-07: Andre Carson* (D)
IN-08: Brad Ellsworth* (D)
IN-09: Baron Hill* (D)

IA-01: Bruce Braley* (D)
IA-02: Dave Loebsack* (D)
IA-03: Leonard Boswell* (D)
IA-04: Tom Latham* (R)
IA-05: Steve King* (R)

KS-01: Jerry Moran* (R)

KS-02: Lynn Jenkins (R)
KS-03: Dennis Moore* (D)
KS-04: Todd Tiahrt* (R)

KY-01: Ed Whitfield* (R)
KY-02: Brett Guthrie (R)

KY-03: John Yarmuth* (D)
KY-04: Geoff Davis* (R)
KY-05: Hal Rogers* (R)

KY-06: Ben Chandler* (D)

LA-01: Steve Scalise* (R)
LA-02: Joseph Cao (R)
LA-03: Charlie Melancon* (D)
LA-04: Jeff Fleming (R)
LA-05: Rodney Alexander* (R)
LA-06: Bill Cassidy (R)
LA-07: Charles Boustany* (R)


ME-01: Chellie Pingree (D)
ME-02: Mike Michaud* (D)

MD-01: Andy Harris (R)
MD-02: Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
MD-03: John Sarbanes (D)
MD-04: Donna Edwards (D)
MD-05: Steny Hoyer (D)
MD-06: Roscoe Bartlett (R)
MD-07: Elijah Cummings (D)
MD-08: Chris Van Hollen (D)

MA-01: John Olver (D)
MA-02: Richard Neal (D)
MA-03: Jim McGovern (D)
MA-04: Barney Frank (D)
MA-05: Niki Tsongas (D)
MA-06: John Tierney (D)
MA-07: Ed Markey (D)
MA-08: Mike Capuano (D)
MA-09: Stephen Lynch (D)
MA-10: Bill Delahunt (D)

MI-01: Bart Stupak* (D)
MI-02: Pete Hoekstra* (R)
MI-03: Vern Ehlers* (R)
MI-04: Dave Camp* (R)

MI-05: Dale Kildee* (D)
MI-06: Fred Upton* (R)
MI-07: Tim Walberg* (R)
MI-08: Mike Rogers* (R)

MI-09: Gary Peters (D)
MI-10: Candice Miller* (R)
MI-11: Thad McCotter* (R)

MI-12: Sander Levin* (D)
MI-13: Carolyn Kilpatrick* (D)
MI-14: John Conyers* (D)
MI-15: John Dingell* (D)

MN-01: Tim Walz* (D)
MN-02: John Kline* (R)
MN-03: Erik Paulsen (R)

MN-04: Betty McCollum* (D)
MN-05: Keith Ellison* (D)
MN-06: Michelle Bachmann* (R)
MN-07: Collin Peterson* (D)
MN-08: Jim Oberstar* (D)

MS-01: Travis Childers* (D)
MS-02: Bennie Thompson* (D)
MS-03: Gregg Harper (R)
MS-04: Gene Taylor* (D)

MO-01: Lacy Clay* (D)
MO-02: Todd Akin* (R)
MO-03: Russ Carnahan* (D)
MO-04: Ike Skelton* (D)
MO-05: Emanuel Cleaver* (D)
MO-06: Sam Graves* (R)
MO-07: Roy Blunt* (R)
MO-08: Jo Ann Emerson* (R)
MO-09: Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)

MT-AL: Denny Rehberg* (R)

NE-01: Jeff Fortenberry* (R)
NE-02: Lee Terry* (R)
NE-03: Adrian Smith* (R)


NV-01: Shelley Berkley* (D)
NV-02: Dean Heller* (R)
NV-03: Jon Porter* (R)


NH-01: Jeb Bradley (R)
NH-02: Paul Hodes* (D)

NJ-01: Rob Andrews* (D)
NJ-02: Frank LoBiondo* (R)
NJ-03: Chris Myers (R)
NJ-04: Chris Smith* (R)
NJ-05: Scott Garrett* (R)

NJ-06: Frank Pallone* (D)
NJ-07: Leonard Lance (R)
NJ-08: Bill Pascrell* (D)
NJ-09: Steve Rotham* (D)
NJ-10: Don Payne* (D)
NJ-11: Rodney Frelinghuysen* (R)
NJ-12: Rush Holt Jr.* (D)
NJ-13: Albio Sires* (D)

NM-01: Martin Heinrich (D)
NM-02: Harry Teague (D)

NM-03: Ben Ray Lujan (D)

NY-01: Tim Bishop* (D)
NY-02: Steve Israel* (D)
NY-03: Peter King* (R)
NY-04: Carolyn McCarthy* (D)
NY-05: Gary Ackerman* (D)
NY-06: Gregory Meeks* (D)
NY-07: Joe Crowley* (D)
NY-08: Jerry Nadler* (D)
NY-09: Anthony Weiner* (D)
NY-10: Es Towns* (D)
NY-11: Yvette Clarke* (D)
NY-12: Nydia Velazquez* (D)
NY-13: Michael McMahon (D)
NY-14: Carolyn Maloney* (D)
NY-15: Charles Rangel* (D)
NY-16: Jose Serrano* (D)
NY-17: Eliot Engel* (D)
NY-18: Nita Lowey* (D)
NY-19: John Hall* (D)
NY-20: Kirsten Gillibrand* (D)
NY-21: Paul Tonko (D)
NY-22: Maurice Hinchey* (D)
NY-23: John McHugh* (R)
NY-24: Richard Hanna (R)
NY-25: Dan Maffei (D)
NY-26: Christopher Lee (R)
NY-27: Brian Higgins* (D)
NY-28: Louise Slaughter* (D)
NY-29: Randy Kuhl (R)

NC-01: G.K. Butterfield* (D)
NC-02: Bob Etheridge* (D)
NC-03: Walter Jones Jr.* (R)
NC-04: David Price* (D)
NC-05: Virginia Foxx* (R)
NC-06: Howard Coble* (R)

NC-07: Mike McIntyre* (D)
NC-08: Larry Kissell (D)
NC-09: Sue Myrick* (R)
NC-10: Patrick McHenry* (R)

NC-11: Health Shuler* (D)
NC-12: Mel Watt* (D)
NC-13: Brad Miller* (D)

ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy* (D)

OH-01: Steve Chabot* (R)
OH-02: Jean Schmidt* (R)
OH-03: Mike Turner* (R)
OH-04: Jim Jordan* (R)
OH-05: Bob Latta* (R)

OH-06: Charlie Wilson* (D)
OH-07: Steve Austria (R)
OH-08: John Boehner* (R)

OH-09: Marcy Kaptur* (D)
OH-10: Dennis Kucinich* (D)
OH-11: Marcia Fudge (D)
OH-12: Pat Tiberi* (R)
OH-13: Betty Sutton* (D)
OH-14: Steve LaTourette* (R)
OH-15: Steve Stivers (R)

OH-16: John Boccieri (D)
OH-17: Tim Ryan* (D)
OH-18: Zack Space* (D)

OK-01: John Sullivan* (R)
OK-02: Dan Boren* (D)
OK-03: Frank Lucas* (R)
OK-04: Tom Cole* (R)
OK-05: Mary Fallin* (R)


OR-01: David Wu* (D)
OR-02: Greg Walden* (R)
OR-03: Earl Blumenauer* (D)
OR-04: Peter DeFazio* (D)
OR-05: Kurt Schrader (D)

PA-01: Bob Brady* (D)
PA-02: Chaka Fattah* (D)
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper (D)
PA-04: Jason Altmire* (D)
PA-05: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-06: Jim Gerlach* (R)

PA-07: Joe Sestak* (D)
PA-08: Patrick Murphy* (D)
PA-09: Bill Shuster* (R)
PA-10: Chris Carney* (D)
PA-11: Paul Kanjorski* (D)
PA-12: John Murtha* (D)
PA-13: Allyson Schwartz* (D)
PA-14: Mike Doyle* (D)
PA-15: Charlie Dent* (R)
PA-16: Joe Pitts* (R)

PA-17: Tim Holden* (D)
PA-18: Tim Murphy* (R)
PA-19: Todd Platts* (R)


RI-01: Patrick Kennedy* (D)
RI-02: Jim Langevin* (D)

SC-01: Henry Brown* (R)
SC-02: Joe Wilson* (R)
SC-03: Gresham Barrett* (R)
SC-04: Bob Inglis* (R)

SC-05: John Spratt* (D)
SC-06: Jim Clyburn* (D)

SD-AL: Stephanie Herserh Sandlin* (D)

TN-01: Phil Roe (R)
TN-02: Jimmy Duncan* (R)
TN-03: Zach Wamp* (R)

TN-04: Lincoln Davis* (D)
TN-05: Jim Cooper* (D)
TN-06: Bart Gordon* (D)
TN-07: Marsha Blackburn* (R)
TN-08: John Tanner* (D)
TN-09: Steve Cohen* (D)

TX-01: Louie Gohmert* (R)
TX-02: Ted Poe* (R)
TX-03: Sam Johnson* (R)
TX-04: Ralph Hall* (R)
TX-05: Jeb Hensarling* (R)
TX-06: Joe Barton* (R)
TX-07: John Culberson* (R)
TX-08: Kevin Brady* (R)

TX-09: Al Green* (D)
TX-10: Michael McMaul* (R)
TX-11: Mike Conaway* (R)
TX-12: Kay Granger* (R)
TX-13: Mac Thornberry* (R)
TX-14: Ron Paul* (R)

TX-15: Ruben Hinojosa* (D)
TX-16: Silvestre Reyes* (D)
TX-17: Chet Edwards* (D)
TX-18: Sheila Jackson Lee* (D)
TX-19: Randy Neugebauer* (R)
TX-20: Charlie Gonzalez* (D)
TX-21: Lamar Smith* (R)
TX-22: Pete Olson (R)
TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez* (D)
TX-24: Kenny Marchant* (R)
TX-25: Lloyd Doggett* (D)
TX-26: Michael Burgess* (R)
TX-27: Solomon Ortiz* (D)
TX-28: Henry Cuellar* (D)
TX-29: Gene Green* (D)
TX-30: Eddie Bernice Johnson* (D)
TX-31: John Carter* (R)
TX-32: Pete Sessions* (R)

UT-01: Rob Bishop* (R)

UT-02: Jim Matheson* (D)
UT-03: Jason Chaffetz (R)

VT-AL: Peter Welch (D)

VA-01: Rob Wittman (R)
VA-02: Thelma Darke (R)

VA-03: Bobby Scott (D)
VA-04: Randy Forbes (R)
VA-05: Virgil Goode (R)
VA-06: Bob Goodlatte (R)
VA-07: Eric Cantor (R)

VA-08: Jim Moran (D)
VA-09: Rick Boucher (D)
VA-10: Frank Wolf (R)
VA-11: Gerry Connolly (D)

WA-01: Jay Inslee (D)
WA-02: Rick Larsen (D)
WA-03: Brian Baird (D)
WA-04: Doc Hastings (R)
WA-05: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)

WA-06: Norm Dicks (D)
WA-07: Jim McDermott (D)
WA-08: Dave Reichert (R)
WA-09: Adam Smith (D)

WV-01: Allan Mollohan (D)
WV-02: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
WV-03: Nick Rahall (D)

WI-01: Paul Ryan (R)
WI-02: Tammy Baldwin (D)
WI-03: Ron Kind (D)
WI-04: Gwen Moore (D)
WI-05: Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
WI-06: Tom Petri (R)

WI-07: Dave Obey (D)
WI-08: Steve Kagen (D)


WY-AL: Cynthia Lummis (R)

The closest race PA-11:
Paul Kanjorski (D, inc.) 97,237 votes; 50.002%
Lou Barletta (R) 97,229 votes 49.998%



2008 Gubernatorial elections


Races decided by less than 10%:

North Carolina
Pat McCrory (R) 48.97%
Bev Perdue (D) 48.81%
Republican gain
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,409
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: 4.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2020, 12:38:10 pm »

20th January 2009
John Sidney McCain III inaugurated as 44th President of the United States

Cabinet of John McCain

President: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Vice President: Sen. John Thune (R-SD)

Secretary of State: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)
Secretary of the Treasury: Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Secretary of Defense: Gen. David Petraeus (I-NY)
Attorney General: Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA)
Secretary of the Interior: Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM)
Secretary of Agriculture: Fmr. Gov. Terry Branstad (R-IA)
Secretary of Commerce: Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH)
Secretary of Labor: Sec. Elaine Chao (R-KY)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Fmr. Rep. J.C. Watts (R-OK)
Secretary of Transportation: Rep. Ray LaHood (R-IL)
Secretary of Energy: Deputy Secretary Clay Sell (R-TX)
Secretary of Education: Fmr. Deputy Sec. Raymond Simon (R-AR)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Fmr. Sen. Max Cleland (D-GA)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

This Cabinet will create 2 Senate special elections, in Connecticut and in South Carolina

AZ-Sen special election 2010 = regular election
NH-Sen special election 2010 = regular election
SD-Sen special election 2010 = regular election

CT-Sen special election 2010 (I Class)
SC-Sen special election 2010 (II Class)

And will create 4 special elections to House of Representatives:

CA-03 special election
NM-01 special election
FL-18 special election (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen appointed as CIA Director)



December 11th, 2009: Governor of Arizona Janet Napolitano appointed former Chief of Staff to McCain and former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods, moderate Republican, to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate. He will serve until 2010 regular Senate election

January 28th, 2009: Governor of South Dakota Mike Rounds appointed former Speaker of South Dakota HoR Matt Michels (R) to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate. Rounds wanted to appoint Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard, but he declined to serve as U.S. Senator and declared his candidacy for Governor in 2010. He will serve until regular election in 2010

February 2nd, 2009: Governor of Rhode Island Jodi Rell appointed Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele (R) to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate, which was created after Joe Lieberman's resignation to became U.S. Secretary of State. This seat was previously held by Democrat, so Senate balance now 55-45 D. Fedele will serve until 2010 special Senate race

February 8th, 2009: Governor of South Carolina Mark Sanford appointed U.S. Representative Bob inglis (R) to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate, which was created after Lindsey Graham's resignation to become Secretary of Homeland Security. He will serve until 2010 special Senate race

February 18th, 2009: Governor of New Hampshire John Lynch appointed New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) to a vacant seat in U.S. Senate. It was compromise between him and outgoing Senator Judd Gregg, who declined to leave the Senate if his successor will be Democrat


CA-03 special election will held on 7th April, 2009 (Rating: Lean D (pick-up))

NM-01 special election will held on 31st March, 2009 Rating: Likely D (pick-up

FL-18 special election will held on 7th April, 2009 Tossup



February 13th, 2009: Senator Bob Casey Jr. from Pennsylvania, who was 2008 Democratic nominee for Vice President, met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senators Kent Conrad, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln, Governors Joe Manchin and Brad Henry, Representatives Ike Skelton, Collin Peterson, Solomon Ortiz , Jim Oberstar, Nick Rahall, John Tanner, Gene Taylor, Kathy Dahlkemper and Dan Lipinski. It is still unknown what was discussed at the meeting.

Politico: "Conservative Democrats are trying to find their way further"

Washington Post: "Bob Casey Jr. Tries to Find Allies for His Potential 2012 Campaign"

New York Times: "Blue Dogs Meeting. Main question: who will be their candidate for 2012?


February 14th, 2009
Harry Reid: "Obama lost because he was too socially liberal for United States"

February 15th, 2009
Joe Manchin: "We [Democrats] always will lose in presidential elections, if we continue to move to the left on social issues"

February 18th, 2099
Ike Skelton: "We will fight for strong social conservatism in our [Democratic] party"
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2020, 02:29:08 pm »

Looking forward to this
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2020, 04:12:28 am »

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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2020, 04:19:11 am »

McCain's main priorities

After taking office, President McCain announced that his main priorities would be two reforms: immigration and campaign finance reform. His spokesman also announced that the President himself would focus on foreign policy and security issues, and that domestic policy would be taken care of by Vice President Thune.

In his first 100 days as president, President McCain has spent 44 days abroad, mostly in Iraq and Afghanistan.

On June 1, 2009, McCain announced that the contingent in Afghanistan would be reduced by 10%, while the US military contingent in Iraq would be increased by 8%. U.S. Senate voted to increase defense spending.

In the United States, the recession continued and unemployment rose. As of June 2009, the unemployment rate was 11.7 percent. In the Senate, was passed Job Creation Act, which was heavily sponsored by McCain's administration. YEA voted 51 Senators, NAY voted 48 Senators and Sen. Ted Kennedy was absent. All Republicans, except Olympia Snow, voted for it, while 48 Democrats voted against it. 7 Democratic Senators (from red states) also supported this legislation.



June 29th, 2009: Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States David Souter resigned

July 27th, 2009: Senate confirmed Consuelo Callahan as new Associate Justice of SCOTUS

Consuelo Callahan served as Judge of the San Joaquin County Superior Court from 1992 to 1996, then she was appointed by Governor Pete Wilson to the California Court of Appeal for the Third District, where she served until 2003, when President George W. Bush appointed her to United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit

77 Senators voted for her confirmation, while 22 voted against. All Republicans with 32 Democrats voted YEA


Senator Bob Casey Jr. from Pennsylvania met for the second time with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senators Kent Conrad, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln, Governors Joe Manchin and Brad Henry, Representatives Ike Skelton, Collin Peterson, Solomon Ortiz, Jim Oberstar, Nick Rahall, John Tanner, Gene Taylor, Kathy Dahlkemper and Dan Lipinski

Solomon Ortiz: "Yes, we talked about the 2012 election. We want to have a single candidate. It will definitely not be me. I think that from our, so to speak, faction will run Evan Bayh, Bob Casey, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Manchin or Collin Peterson »

John Tanner: "We have decided to focus on electing Socially Conservative Democrats in 2010 and 2012."

Bob Casey: "I am now seriously considering the possibility of running in 2012, but there will definitely be a single candidate from our faction."

Evan Bayh: "I see an opportunity to run in 2012, but if Bob [Casey Jr.] is running, I will stay in the Senate."

Joe Manchin: "I love my job. I want to be governor of West Virginia. I will not run for president in 2012. This is an official statement."


31st March 2010
NM-01 special election result
Martin Heinrich (D) 61.29%
Darren White (R) 36.56%
Democratic gain

7th April 2010
CA-03 special election result
Ami Bera (D) 53.27%
Doug Ose (R) 44.10%
Democratic gain

FL-18 special election result
Brune Barreiro (R) 49.18%
Scott Fuhrman (D) 48.42%
Republican hold


15th June 2020

Approval rating of President McCain
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 46%

Approval rating of Vice President Thune
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 44%

Counrty direction
Right direction 41%
Wrong direction 54%
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2020, 02:16:51 am »

President  McCain? Great TL! Followed. Tongue
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2020, 09:53:30 am »

Early Senate races analysis. Part I

Alabama
Declared candidates:
Richard Shelby* (R)

Incumbent Richard Shelby (R) is seeking reelection for a fifth term. He was reelected with 67.55% in 2004. He is expected to win in landslide. No one from Democratic Party declared their candidacy. President McCain is very popular in Alabama, same as Senator Shelby

McCain's approval: 65-29 (+36)
Shelby's approval: 62-32 (+30)
Rating: Safe R


Alaska
Declared candidates:
Lisa Murkowski* (R)
Joe Miller (R)

Scott McAdams (D)
David Haase (L)

Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) is running for a second full term. She was elected in 2004 with 48.60%. In 2002 Lisa was appointed to U.S. Senate by her father, Frank, who resigned from Senate to become Governor. Incumbent Senator is close ally of President McCain, he endorsed her campaign immediately after she decided to run again

South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin heavily lobbied former magistrate judge Joe Miller to run against incumbent. He declared his candidacy on 15th May and already endorsed by 5 incumbent Senators and influential former Speaker Newt Gingrich. This race will be very close

On 14th June at rally for Murkowski, Vice President Thune said: "If [Joe] Miller wins, we [McCain administration] will not endorse him. And I talked with Mr. McConnell, Miller will not get membership in any committee"

McCain's approval: 59-32 (+27)
Murkowksi's approval: 54-40 (+14)
Rating: Tossup (R primary), Likely R (GE)


Arizona
Declared candidates:
J.D. Hayworth (R)

Incumbent Grant Woods (R), who was appointed by Governor Janet Napolitano is still undecided, will he run or not. He is favorite of President McCain, who said that he is very unhappy that only one Republican, former Congressman Hayworh, now running in Arizona. Woods pledged to decided before September 1st, 2009

On the Democratic side, potential candidates includes Congresswomen Gabrielle Giffords and Ann Kirkpatrick. Popular Governor Janet Napolitano said that she isn't interested in running, even after most polls showed her ahead of all primary and general elections opponents. Arizona is trending for Democrats, but many experts doubt that it will be enough to flip this seat

McCain's approval: 57-30 (+27)
Woods'es approval: 39-20 (+19)
Rating: Tossup


Arkansas
Declared candidates:
Blanche Lincoln* (D)
Bill Halter (D)

Gilbert Baker (R)
Kim Hendren (R)
Randy Alexander (R)


Incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) is seeking her third term. She was reelected with 55.90% in 2004, despite President Bush easily win Arkansas'es electoral votes. Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter is running as a more liberal alternative to Lincoln. Polls show them head-to-head

On the Republican side, there are already 3 candidates. Potential candidates include 2004 nominee Jim Holt, U.S. Representative John Boozman and former U.S. Representative Asa Hutchinson. Boozman is the strongest among them. Few polls even have him ahead of Lincoln and Halter

McCain's approval: 58-34 (+24)
Lincoln's approval: 56-30 (+26)
Rating: Tossup


California

Declared candidates:
Barbara Boxer* (D)
Carly Fiorina (R)
Chuck DeVore (R)


Incumbent Barbara Boxer (D) is running for a fourth term. She was reelected in 2004 with 57.71%. She is expected to win easily, Boxer is popular in California and this state is very blue, so there must not be any problem to her reelection campaign

McCain's approval: 39-53 (-14)
Boxer's approval: 58-35 (+23)
Rating: Safe D


Colorado
Declared candidates:
Ken Salazar* (D)
Andrew Romanoff (D)

Ken Buck (R)

Incumbent Ken Salazar (D), who formed exploratory committee to run for President in 2012, is running for a second term. He is challenged by former Speaker of Colorado HoR Andrew Romanoff, who running as outsider. Romanoff said that Salazar "is Senator only for D.C., not for Colorado" and criticizing his vote to confirm most members of McCain's Cabinet

On the Republican side, Weld County district attorney Ken Buck is running. And former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton formed exploratory committee. Norton and Buck lead Romanoff in potential match-ups, while both losing bigly to Salazar - polls showing

McCain's approval: 45-49 (-4)
Salazar's approval: 57-37 (+20)
Rating: Likely D


Connecticut
Declared candidates:
Chris Dodd* (D)
Richard Blumenthal (D)

Rob Simmons (R)
Peter Schiff (R)


Incumbent Chris Dodd (D) is seeking his sixth term. He was reelected in 2004 with 66.42%. Now he is deeply unpopular in Connecticut, but he is running. Connecticut Attorney General Dick Blumenthal challenging him in Democratic primary, the latter expected to win this expensive race

On the Republican side, former Congressman Rob Simmons and businessman Peter Schiff are running. Businesswoman Linda McMahon formed an exploratory committee. Simmons and McMahon have advantage in general election against Dodd, but losing to a Blumenthal by big margin

McCain's approval: 37-58 (-21)
Dodd's approval: 36-60 (-24)

Rating: Tossup


Connecticut- special
Declared candidates:
Michael Fedele* (R)[/color]
Ned Lamont (D)[/color]

Incumbent Michael Fedele (R) is running for a full term. He was appointed by Governor Jodi Rell after Senator Joe Lieberman become Secretary of State. Popular incumbent Republican Governor Jodi Rell, who has advantage in all possible match-ups, declined to run, leaving Fedele alone Republican in this race

Ned Lamont, who defeated Lieberman in Democratic primary in 2006, running again. He is only Democrat in the race at he moment, but national Democrats put pressure on U.S. Representative Chris Murphy to get him in the race. He is the strongest potential Democratic candidate. Lamont and Fedele polling with margin of error, while Murphy has a serious lead against Fedele

McCain's approval: 37-58 (-21)
Fedele's approval: 32-33 (-1)

Rating: Tossup


Florida
Declared candidates:
Charlie Crist (R)
Marco Rubio (R)

Kendrick Meek (D)
Jeff Greene (D)


Incumbent Mel Martinez (R) is retiring and many sources say that he will resign before end of the year. After his decision to retire, many prominent Republicans declined to run, including Jeb Bush, Joe Scarborough and Adam Putnam. However, on June 10th, incumbent Governor Charlie Crist declared his candidacy. He will face Speaker of Florida HoR Marco Rubio in Republican primary, if any other candidate will not run. Rubio is endorsed by many conservatives and members of Tea Party, while Crist is heavily lobbied by President McCain and his allies. NRSC endorsed Charlie Crist. He was early favorite, but now polls are more close.

On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Kendrick Meek and businessman Jeff Greene are running. U.S. Representative Kathy Castor formed an exploratory committee. Florida is very purple state and almost all statewide open elections here are Tossup. Polls are showing very, very tight race. And now this race is already the most expensive Senate election in a country

McCain's approval: 47-46 (+1)
Martinez's approval: 55-39 (+16)

Rating: Tossup


Georgia
Declared candidates:
Johnny Isakson* (R)
Mike Thurmond (D)

Incumbent Johnny Isakson is running for a second term. He was elected with 57.88% in 2004. He facing no opposition in Republican primary and Mike Thurmond is only one Democrat in the race, whom win isn't expecting. If all stays the same, Isakson will be safe. But Congressmen Jim Marshall and Sanford Bishop expressed interest in running. Both of them met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. They are serious threat to Isakson, but high-profile Democrats in the USA, including 2008 presidential nominee Barack Obama, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin and former First Lady Hillary Clinton want very popular former Mayor of Atlanta Shirley Franklin to run

McCain's approval: 53-43 (+10)
Isakson's approval: 51-42 (+9)

Rating: Tossup


Hawaii
Declared candidates:
Daniel Inouye* (D)
Campbell Cavasso (R)

Incumbent Daniel Inoyue (D) is running for a ninth term. He didn't face any serious oppostion in almost all his bids. He is expected to win in landslide. Incumbent Republican Governor Linda Lingle, only one candidate, who would make this race competitive, declined to run

McCain's approval: 32-63 (-31)
Inoyue's approval: 67-24 (+43)
Rating: Safe D


Idaho
Declared candidates:
Mike Crapo* (R)
Skip Davis (R)

Tom Sullivan (D)

Incumbent Mike Crapo (R) is running for a third term. He didn't face any serious oppostion in all his bids. He is expected to win in landslide. Idaho is very friendly to Republicans state and President McCain is very popular here

McCain's approval: 65-30 (+35)
Crapo's approval: 58-37 (+21)

Rating: Safe R


Illinois
Declared candidates:
Mark Kirk (R)
Patrick Hudges (R)


Incumbent Barack Obama (D), who was Democratic presidential nominee in 2008, made some intimations that he will run for Governor in 2010, but he didn't declared his candidacy for any office. If he does not run for reelection, Democratic field will have many candidates. Some notable potential candidates: Rahm Emanuel, Alexi Giannoulias, Jerry Costello.

On the Republican side, moderate U.S. Representative Mark Kirk is a clear favorite to win the nomination

McCain's approval: 39-53 (-14)
Obama's approval: 70-24 (+46)
Rating: Likely D


Indiana
Declared candidates:
Evan Bayh* (D)
John Hostettler (R)
Marlin Stutzman (R)


Incumbent Evan Bayh (D) is seeking third term. He was reelected with 61.69% in 2004. Bayh is potential 2012 presidential candidate and he is very popular in Indiana. Republican candidates are former U.S. Representative John Hostettler and state senator Marlin Stutzman, both of them isn't serious threat for Bayh. Former Senator Dan Coats, the strongest Republican candidate, declined to run. And popular Republican Governor Mitch Daniels isn't likely to run, however he didn't declined this option

McCain's approval: 49-44 (+5)
Bayh's approval: 63-27 (+36)

Rating: Safe D


Iowa
Declared candidates:
none

Former popular Governor Tom Vilsack (D) expressed interest in running. He is expected to defeat incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley (R), if running. So, Grassley didn't declared his bid for reelection. Many experts say that he will wait until Vilsack's decision. Grassley also can run for Governor. Potential Republican candidates: U.S. Representatives Tom Latham and Steve King, former U.S. Representative Jim Nussle

McCain's approval: 46-47 (-1)
Grassley's approval: 54-41 (+13)
Rating: Tossup


Kansas
Declared candidates:
Todd Tiahrt (R)
Jerry Moran (R)
Bob Londerhom (R)

David Haley (D)
Lisa Johnston (D)


Incumbent Sam Brownback (R) declined to run for reelection, instead running for Governor. U.S. Representatives Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran and former Kansas Attorney General Bob Londerholm are running in Republican primary. President John McCain did not make any endorsement

On the Democratic side, businesswoman Lisa Johnston and state senator David Haley are running. High-profile Democrats hope that popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius will run. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid already twice met with her

McCain's approval: 62-31 (+31)
Brownback's approval: 59-35 (+24)

Rating: Safe R


Kentucky
Declared candidates:
Trey Grayson (R)
Rand Paul (R)

Jack Conway (D)
Daniel Mongiardo (D)
Darlene Price (D)


Incumbent Jim Bunning (R) hasn't declared will he run or not yet. He is deeply unpopular in state and in the country, overall. Bunning is under pressure from national Republicans and his colleague, fellow Kentucky Senator and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to retire. Almost all Republicans agreed that Bunning will lose general election. Ophthalmologist Rand Paul and Kentucky SoS Trey Grayson running for a Republican nomination

On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway are running. Mongiardo, who almost won this race in 2004, is very strong in rural parts of the state, while Conway's supporters live in urban and suburban regions

McCain's approval: 53-42 (+11)
Bunning's approval: 25-70 (-45)
Rating: Tossup


Louisiana
Declared candidates:
David Vitter (R)
Charlie Melançon (D)

Incumbent David Vitter (R) is seeking a second term. He is considered vulnerable because of prostitution scandal revealed in 2007. U.S. Representative Charlie Melançon (D) announced that he is running on June 14, 2009. Polls show Vitter and Melançon head-to-head

McCain's approval: 54-42 (+14)
Vitter's approval: 47-47 (0)
Rating: Tossup
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Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2020, 10:09:42 am »

good work!
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Ishan
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2020, 02:57:54 pm »

Bob Casey Jr. isn't that pro-life, he is pro life in name.
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2020, 05:44:45 pm »

Wow this is hard to read
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2020, 08:43:47 pm »

Loving this timeline so far! Very excited to see what will happen in the 2010 midterms and 2012 general election!
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2020, 09:07:29 am »

Early Senate races analysis. Part II

Maryland
Declared candidates:
Barbara Mikulski* (D)
Jim Rutledge (R)
Eric Wargotz (R)


Incumbent Barbara Mikulski (D) is running for a sixth term. She won reelection with 64.80% in 2004. She didn't face any serious oppostion in almost all her bids. Se is expected to win in landslide. U.S. Representative Andy Harris, only one candidate, who would make this race slightly more competitive, declined to run

McCain's approval: 34-62 (-28)
Mikulski's approval: 64-30 (+34)
Rating: Safe D


Missouri
Declared candidates:
Roy Blunt (R)
Robin Carnahan (D)

Incumbent Kit Bond (R) decided to retire. U.S. Representative and former House Minority Whip Roy Blunt is the only Republican in the race. Democrats have also one candidate, Missouri SoS Robin Carnahan. Both are very well-known in

McCain's approval: 51-43 (+8)
Bond's approval: 55-39 (+16)

Rating: Tossup


Nevada
Declared candidates:
Harry Reid* (D)
Sharron Angle (R)
Danny Tarkanian (R)
Sue Lowden (R)


Incumbent Harry Reid (D), who is Senate Majority Leader, is running for a fifth term. Reid was reelected with 61.08% in 2004. He was considered vulnerable early, but with election of John McCain, Reid became relative favorite.

On the Republican side, there are 3 famous candidates. Sue Lowden is endorsed by Republican establishment, while Tarkanian and Angle share the support of far-right and Tea Party

McCain's approval: 45-48 (-3)
Reid's approval: 52-42 (+10)
Rating: Lean D


New Hampshire

Declared candidates:
Kelly Ayotte* (R)
Ovide Lamontagne (R)

Paul Hodes (D)

Then-incumbent Judd Gregg (R) resigned in early 2009 to become Secretary of Commerce in McCain's administration, but he did his best to be succeeded by a Republican. After lengthy negotiations with Democratic Gov. John Lynch, NH Attorney General Kelly Ayotte was appointed to the Senate

Tea Party was dissatisfied about appointment of Ayotte and their leaders encouraged businessman Ovide Lamontagne to run against her in primary. President McCain endorsed Ayotte immediately after this

U.S. Representative Paul Hodes running unopposed in Democratic primary

McCain's approval: 47-47 (0)
Ayotte's approval: 41-19 (+22)
Rating: Likely R


New York
Declared candidates:
Chuck Schumer* (D)
Jay Townsend (R)
Gary Berntsen (R)


Incumbent Chuck Schumer (D) is running for a third term. He was reelected with 71.20% in 2004. Schumer is very popular in New York and he is expected to win easily agaist all Republican opponents. However, the most famous Republicans, like Rudy Giuliani and George Pataki declined to run

McCain's approval: 35-60 (-25)
Schumer's approval: 63-29 (+34)
Rating: Safe D


North Carolina
Declared candidates:
Richard Burr* (R)
Elaine Marshall (D)
Cal Cunningham (D)


Incumbent Richard Burr (R) is seeking second term in office. He was elected with 51.60% in 2004. NC SoS Elaine Marshall and former state senator Cal Cunningham are running for Democratic nomination. The race is very competitive. Conservative Democrats want Blue Dog Mike McIntyre to run here, his potential campaign was already endorsed by Blue Dog PAC and notable conservative Democrats (Joe Manchin, Ike Skelton and Bob Casey Jr.). He formed exploratory committee and is expected to announce his decision by July 15th.

McCain's approval: 49-45 (+4)
Burr's approval: 45-47 (-2)
Rating: Tossup


North Dakota
Declared candidate:
Kevin Cramer (R)

Incumbent Byron Dorgan (D) has not yet decided whether he will run. He has never faced serious opposition in all his elections. But the very popular Governor John Hoeven (R) has announced his interest in running. In this case, Dorgan is expected to lose.

The only candidate in the race is Republican Kevin Cramer. If he is a nominee, Dorgan will easily win

McCain's approval: 52-42 (+10)
Dorgan's approval: 59-32 (+27)

Rating: Tossup


Ohio
Declared candidates:
Rob Portman (R)
Lee Fisher (D)
Jennifer Brunner (D)


Incumbent George Voinovich (R) has announced his decision to resign.

"I had a wonderful years in the Senate. And a wonderful years as Governor of this wonderful state. And I love Ohio, I've always done my best for Ohio. Thank you all! I love our state! But my time is up, I want to spend time with my wife , my children and my family. I will not run again in 2010"

Former U.S. Representative, Trade Representative and OMB Director Rob Portman is unopposed in Republican primary, while Democrats are divided in a duel between Ohio SoS Fisher and Lieutenant Governor Brunner. The general election promises to be very competitive

McCain's approval: 48-46 (+2)
Voinovich's approval: 64-28 (+36)

Rating: Tossup


Oklahoma
Declared candidates:
Tom Coburn* (R)
Jim Rogers (D)

Incumbent Tom Coburn (R) is seeking second term in office. He was elected with 52.77% in 2004, but since then Oklahoma only became more red state. Coburn, as McCain, is very popular. He is expected to win easily

McCain's approval: 63-31 (+32)
Coburn's approval: 66-30 (+36)

Rating: Safe R


Oregon
Declared candidates:
Ron Wyden* (D)
Shane Dinkel (R)
Jim Huffman (R)
Thomas Stutzman (R)


Incumbent Ron Wyden (D) is running for a third full term. He was reelected with 63.39% in 2004. Law professor Jim Huffman is clear favorite to win Republican nomination, but Oregon is blue state and President is unpopular here, while Wyden's approval is high, so Wyden's seat is safe for him

McCain's approval: 40-55 (-15)
Wyden's approval: 54-42 (+12)
Rating: Safe D


Pennsylvania
Declared candidates:
Arlen Specter* (R)
Pat Toomey (R)

Joe Sestak (D)

Specter almost lost the primary in 2004 and was ready to change parties after the 2008 election. He abandoned this idea after talks with his close friend President McCain. Pat Toomey, his 2004 primary opponent, who is heavily backed by Tea Party, is running against him again.

On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Joe Sestak is running. U.S. Representative Allyson Schwatrz also announced her interest in the race. Governor Ed Rendell said he is seriously considering running. Meanwhile, Senator Casey is lobbying for the candidacy of one-term U.S. Representative Kathy Dahlkemper

McCain's approval: 43-51 (-8)
Specter's approval: 48-45 (+3)
Rating: Tossup


South Carolina
Declared candidates:
Jim DeMint* (R)
Charlie Condon (R)

Vic Rawl (D)

Incumbent Jim DeMint (R) is running for a second term in office. He was elected with 53.58% in 2004. DeMint is well-known for his ultra-conservative views and intra-party opposition for President McCain. Senator endorsed all Tea Party candidates, including opponents for current Congressmen.

McCain's allies decided to take revenge on him. VP Thune held a series of talks with various SC Republicans. Thune stopped at Charlie Condon, he asked him to announce his participation in the race. Condon, former SC Attorney General and 2008 McCain's campaign chair, agreed.

Vic Rawl is running unopposed for Democratic nomination

McCain's approval: 58-37 (+21)
DeMint's approval: 53-41 (+12)

Rating: Safe R


South Carolina- special
Declared candidates:
Bob Inglis* (R)
Joe Wilson (R)

Joyce Dickerson (D)
Alvin Greene (D)


Incumbent Bob Inglis (R) was appointed in February 2009 by Governor Mark Sanford. He is very liberal Republican, so he bacame Tea Party's target. U.S. Representative Joe Wilson announced his candidacy, he was immediately endorsed by Jim DeMint.

U.S. Representative Gresham Barrett (R) and former Governor David Beasley (R) firmed exploratory committees. Both are far more conservative than Inglis

On the Democratic side, Joyce Dickerson is clear favorite to win a nomination

McCain's approval: 58-37 (+21)
Inglis's approval: 33-34 (-1)
Rating: Safe R


South Dakota
Declared candidates:
Matt Michels* (R)
Tom Daschle (D)

Incumbent Matt Michels (R) was appointed by Governor Mike Rounds after John Thune's resignation. Shortly after this, former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle announced his comeback. He is well-known in the state, while Michels is quite unknown. Daschle leads by solid margin in most polls

McCain's approval: 54-41 (+13)
Michels's approval: 34-35 (-1)
Rating: Lean D (flip)


Utah
Declared candidates:
Bob Bennett* (R)
Tim Bridgewater (R)

Sam Granato (D)

Incumbent Bob Bennett (R) is running for a fouth term. He was reelected with 68.73% in 2004. Despite his relatively conservative record, he became on of the top targets of Tea Party. Businessman Tim Bridgewater already announced his candidacy, while most Tea Party leaders want to see attorney Mike Lee as Republican nominee.

Democrat Sam Granato is unopposed in his party primary

McCain's approval: 67-28 (+39)
Bennett's approval: 57-38 (+19)

Rating: Safe R


Vermont
Declared candidates:
Patrick Leahy* (D)
Len Britton (R)

Incumbent Patrick Leahy (D) running for a seventh term. He didn't face any serious oppostion in almost all his bids. He is expected to win in landslide. Businessman Scott Mline, only one candidate, who would make this race slighty more competitive, declined to run

McCain's approval: 36-59 (-23)
Leahy's approval: 66-28 (+38)
Rating: Safe D


Washington
Declared candidates:
Patty Murray* (D)
Dino Rossi (R)
Clint Didier (R)
Paul Akers (R)


Incumbent Patty Murray (D) is running for a fourth term. She was reelected with 54.98% in 2004. Murray is pretty popular in her state, while McCain's policies haven't many supporters here, so Democrats probably will hold this race again

McCain's approval: 42-53 (-11)
Murray's approval: 55-39 (+16)
Rating: Safe D


Wisconsin
Declared candidates:
Russ Feingold* (D)
Ron Johnson (R)

Incumbent Russ Feingold (D) is running for a fourth term. He was reelected with 55.35% in 2004

On the Republican side, businessman Ron Johnson, favorite of the Tea Party, declared his candidacy. McCain's allies heavily lobbied former Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson, he is still undecided

McCain's approval: 45-49 (-4)
Feingold's approval: 48-47 (+1)
Rating: Lean D
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2020, 10:48:30 pm »

So is this TL gonna be the McCain presidency being a sorta prologue and the blue dog dem winners presidency in 2012 being the main part
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2020, 10:54:18 pm »

So is this TL gonna be the McCain presidency being a sorta prologue and the blue dog dem winners presidency in 2012 being the main part
Yes, main part of this TL will be 2010 midterm elections and 2012 elections. Maybe I will continue it after 2012 (2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020 elections)
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Chips
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« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2020, 05:31:25 am »

Interesting read so far.
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« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2020, 09:45:04 am »

McCain's administration (August 2009 - January 2010)

August 25th, 2009
U.S. Senator from Massachusetts Ted Kennedy (D), long-time friend of President McCain, died


September 24th, 2009
Paul G. Kirk, former Democratic National Committee chairman and former aide to Kennedy, appointed to occupy Kennedy's Senate seat until the completion of the special election.

Special election will be held on January 19, 2010. Primary elections will be held on December 8, 2009


October 2nd, 2009
Rising star in Democratic Party, Senator from Illinois and 2008 presidential nominee, who narrowly lost to McCain, Barack Obama will retire from the Senate and will run for Governor against incumbent Pat Quinn in primary

This is third open seat in this Senate election cycle


November 3rd&7th, 2009
Gubernatorial election results


New Jersey
Jon Corzine (D, inc.) 49.65%
Chris Christie (R) 46.38%
D hold

Virginia
Terry McAuliffe (D) 50.65%
Bob McDonnell (R) 46.21%
D hold

NYC Mayor
Michael Bloomberg (I) 49.04%
Bill Thompson (D) 49.02%
I/R hold


November 16th, 2009
Senator Bob Casey Jr. from Pennsylvania met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senators Kent Conrad, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln, Governors Joe Manchin and Brad Henry, Representatives Ike Skelton, Collin Peterson, Solomon Ortiz, Jim Oberstar, Nick Rahall, John Tanner, Gene Taylor, Kathy Dahlkemper and Dan Lipinski. It is still unknown what was discussed at the meeting. This was their ninth meeting.

At a joint briefing, they announced the creation of Blue Dogs for an American Future (BDAF). It is reported that this organization will be engaged in the election of socially conservative democrats. Ike Skelton also announced that the only one candidate for the presidential election will be nominated by this organization. Who it will be, Skelton declined to answer.

Ben Nelson: "We will have one candidate [for presidential election], but who it will be, we don't know yet. I think it will be Bob [Casey Jr.] or Evan [Bayh], but it's too early to say"

Joe Manchin: "Our presidential candidate will be Bayh or Casey, I lean it be Bob, because every seat in the Senate is important to us, and Evan's seat will be hard to defend.


November 21st, 2009
Former Senator from North Carolina, 2004 and 2008 presidential candidate, 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards in Charlotte, NC announced his candidacy for President in 2012. He is first major candidate in presidential race

Democratic primary poll
Sen. Hillary Clinton 30%
Sen. Barack Obama 21%
Fmr. VP Al Gore 20%
Sen. Evan Bayh 11%
Sen. John Edwards 8%


November 29th, 2009
Senate passed Immigrants Support Act

YEA: 65 votes
NAY: 34 votes
Absent: Robert Byrd (D-WV)

Republicans, who voted YEA: 26 Republican Senators
Democrats, who voted YEA: 39 Democratic Senators

Immigration reform will make life easier for immigrants inside the United States and create more ways for immigrants to obtain citizenship. McCain also announced that about 700 million illegal immigrants will receive citizenship in the coming month. ISA has been criticized by numerous GOP officials. The main critics of the reform are considered to be the U.S. Representatives Steve King and Dana Rohrabacher and businessman Donald Trump

Group of nine Democratic Senators in a joint statement announced that they did not vote for the bill because of the harsh treatment of immigrants in it

Do you suport ISA?
Support 53%
Oppose 38%
Unsure 9%

Among Democrats
Support 57%
Oppose 32%
Unsure 11%


Among Republicans
Support 42%
Oppose 51%
Unsure 7%


Among Independents
Support 63%
Oppose 29%
Unsure 8%



November 30th, 2009
Businessman Donald Trump, who was a Democrat until recently announced his decision to challenge President McCain in Republican primary after immigration reform. He called McCain "the worst president in history" and "the devil" and said the president "needs to go to hell."

Republican primary poll
John McCain 59%
Donald Trump 33%

John McCain's approval
Approve 49%
Disapprove 44%
Unsure 7%

Among Democrats
Approve 38%
Disapprove 54%
Unsure 8%


Among Republicans
Approve 49%
Disapprove 43%
Unsure 8%


Among Independents
Approve 63%
Dissapprove 30%
Unsure 7%



December 8th, 2009
Massachussets Senate special election primary

Democratic primary
Rep. Mike Capuano 39.25%
State Att. Gen. Martha Coakley 36.29%
Fmr. CEO of City Year Alan Khazei 14.19%
Mr. Stephen Pagliuca 10.27%

Republican primary
State Rep. Scott Brown 88.95%
Mr. Jack Robinson 11.05%

General election
Mike Capuano (D)
Scott Brown (R)
Rating: Likely D


December 11th, 2009
Former Vice President Al Gore, 2000 presidential nominee, environmental activist and potential 2012 presidential candidate declined to run for President.

Democratic primary poll
Sen. Hillary Clinton 16%
Sen. Barack Obama 14%
Sen. Russ Feingold 12%
Sen. Bob Casey Jr. 9%
Sen. Evan Bayh 9%
Sen. Ken Salazar 6%
Gov. Phil Bredesen 5%
Sen. Bernie Sanders 5%
Fmr. Sen. John Edwards 3%
Gov. Christine Gregoire 2%
Sen. Jim Webb 1%
Unsure 8%

Republican primary poll (with McCain)
President John McCain 57%
Businessman Donald Trump 37%
Unsure 6%

Republican primary poll (without McCain)
VP John Thune 32%
Gov. Mitch Daniels 15%
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum 10%
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich 7%
Sec. Lindsey Graham 7%
Businessman Donald Trump 7%
Gov. Bobby Jindal 5%
Sen. Jeff Sessions 4%
Rep. Ron Paul 1%
Unsure 12%

Republican primary poll (without McCain and Thune)
Sec. Mitt Romney 24%
Gov. Mitch Daniels 19%
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum 15%
Sec. Lindsey Graham 10%
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich 6%
Businessman Donald Trump 6%
Sen. Jeff Sessions 3%
Gov. Bobby Jindal 2%
Rep. Ron Paul 1%
Unsure 14%


December 13th, 2009
Senator from North Dakota Byron Dorgan will run for reelection. Shortly after this, popular Republican Governor John Hoeven, a potential Senate candidate, declined to run and said he wanted "to be a Governor a little more"


17th December, 2009
DSCC Chair Bob Menendez and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for a second time met with former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, who is potential candidate for Senate in Georgia
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« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2020, 10:35:20 am »

Even though I know it's gonna be Casey or some other Blue Dog, I really want Feingold, assuming he wins re-election ITTL.
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« Reply #18 on: June 24, 2020, 03:27:29 pm »

Al Gore 2012!
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« Reply #19 on: June 25, 2020, 02:26:50 pm »

Next few posts will be more detailed analyzes of all Senate races as for January 2010, then McCain's presidency then Senate, House and gubernatorial primary results and then long election night of 2010

First post of detailed analyzes of Senate races (Alabama, Alaska and Arkansas) will be posted tomorrow
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« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2020, 05:22:09 am »

Analysis Alabama Senate race 2010
15th January 2010
Candidates filing dedline: April 2nd
Primary: June 1st, July 13th (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Richard Shelby - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Bob Riley - incumbent Governor
   2) Robert Aderholt - U.S. Representative
   3) Mike Rogers - U.S. Representative

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) William Barnes - attorney
   2) Simone De Moore - teacher
2.Declined:
   1) Arthur Davis - U.S. Representative
   2) Jim Folsom Jr. - Lieutenant Governor

Richard Shelby's approval rating
Approve: 1) 58%; 2) 60%; 3) 57%
Dissapprove: 1) 35%; 2) 35%; 3) 37%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 5%; 3) 6%

General election polling        
Richard Shelby- William Barnes - Undecided
           55%                    35%                   10%
           58%                    34%                    8%
           57%                    34%                    9%

Richard Shelby - Simone De Moore - Undecided
            59%                        31%                     10%
            60%                        33%                      7%
            56%                        34%                     10%

Due to a fairly conservative voting record, Richard Shelby was not challenged by the Tea Party. He won quite easily in Alabama before, so now he will probably be easily re-elected to the fifth term.

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act NAY
McCain's approval 63-30 (+33)


Rating:
Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R


Analysis Alaska Senate race 2010
15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 1st
Primary: August 24th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Lisa Murkowski - incumbent U.S. Senator
    2) Joe Miller - former U.S. magistrate judge
2.Declined:
   1) Sean Parnell - incumbent Governor
   2) Sarah Palin - former Governor
   3) Don Young - U.S. Representative

Polling
Lisa Murkowski - Joe Miller - Undecided
            46%                  48%               6%
            47%                  47%               6%
            44%                  49%               7%


Endorsements

Lisa Murkowski
× John McCain (R-AZ), President of the USA
× John Thune (R-SD), Vice President of the USA
× Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK)
× Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
× Sen. Bob Corker (R-KY)
× Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN)
× Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN)
× Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
× Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
× Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA)
× Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV)
× Rep. Don Young (R-AK)
× Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL)
× House Min. Leader John Boehner (R-OH)
× Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
× Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)

Joe Miller
× Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)
× Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
× Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
× Sen. John Cornyn (R-OK)
× Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
× Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
× Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
× Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
× Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Scott McAdams - Mayor of Sitka
2.Declined:
   1) Mark Begich - 2008 nominee
   2) Ethan Berkowitz - state Senator
   3) Tony Knowles - former Governor, 2004 nominee

Lisa Murkowski's approval rating
Approve: 1) 52%; 2) 54%; 3) 51%
Dissapprove: 1) 42%; 2) 39%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 7%; 3) 9%

General election polling        
Lisa Murkowski (I) - Joe Miller - Undecided
            47%                      45%               8%
            45%                      46%               9%
            47%                      47%               6%

Lisa Murkowski - Joe Miller (I) - Undecided
            50%                   42%                  8%
            51%                   40%                  9%
            53%                   40%                  7%

Joe Miller - Scott McAdams - Undecided
       50%                   45%                   5%
       48%                   45%                   7%
       47%                   45%                   8%

Lisa Murkowski - Scott McAdams - Undecided
           56%                         39%                   6%
           58%                         37%                   5%
           54%                         39%                   7%


Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 60-33 (+27)


Rating:
Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R

NYT: Likely R
CNN: Likely R

RCP: Lean R

Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R



Analysis Arkansas Senate race 2010
15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 8th
Primary: May 18th, June 8th (runoff)

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Blanche Lincoln - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Bill Halter - Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas
2.Declined:
   1) Mike Ross - U.S. Representative
   2) Vic Snyder - U.S. Representative
   3) Mike Beebe - incumbent Governor

Polling
Blanche Lincoln - Bill Halter - Undecided
            43%                 41%               16%
            40%                 42%               18%
            43%                 42%               14%
            43%                 44%               13%


Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) John Boozman - U.S. Representative
    2) Radney Alexander - Washington County Tea Party Vice Chair
    3) Gilbert Baker - state Senator
    4) Kim Hendren - State Sen. Min. Leader
    5) Jim Holt - former state Senator
    6) Conrad Reynolds - ret. Army colonel
2.Declined:
   1) Asa Hutchinson - former U.S. Representative
   2) Tim Hutchinson - former U.S. Senator

Polling
John Boozman - Others - Undecided
           45%               47%           8%
           49%               42%           9%
           50%               43%           7%


Blanche Lincoln's approval rating
Approve: 1) 48%; 2) 47%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 46%; 2) 47%; 3) 45%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 6%; 3) 5%

General election polling        
Blanche Lincoln - John Boozman - Undecided
            43%                       47%                  10%
            44%                       48%                   8%
            47%                       46%                   7%

Bill Halter - John Boozman - Undecided
      45%                   49%                  6%
      47%                   47%                  6%
      45%                   50%                  5%

Generic Democrat - Generic Republican  - Undecided
               47%                           47%                         5%
               48%                           44%                         8%
               45%                           46%                         9%

After entering the race, Representative John Boozman was considered a clear favorite, but McCain's popularity was declining, and Blanche Lincoln skillfully used her achievements for Arkansas as Senate Agriculture Chairwoman. And although it was thought that Boozman would be able to avoid the runoff, recent polls show him below 50%

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 55-38 (+17)


Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean R (flip)
NYT: Lean R (flip)

CNN: Lean D
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R (flip)
Daily Kos: Tossup

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« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2020, 03:53:28 pm »
« Edited: June 29, 2020, 03:36:51 am by АndriуValeriovich »

Analysis Arizona Senate race 2010
15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: May 26th
Primary: August 24th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Grant Woods - incumbent U.S. Senator
    2) J.D. Hayworth - former U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1) Jeff Flake - U.S. Representative
   2) Trent Franks - U.S. Representative
   3) Jan Brewer - Arizona Secretary of State

Polling
Grant Woods - J.D. Hayworth - Undecided
        63%                       31%                6%


Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Gabrielle Giffords - U.S. Representative
2.Potential:
   Ann Kirkpatrick - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Ron Barber - U.S. Representative
   2) Raul Grijalva - U.S. Representative
   3) Janet Napolitano - incumbent Governor

Polling
Gabrielle Giffords - Ann Kirkpatrick: 55%-39%
Gabrielle Giffords - Janet Napolitano: 43%-51%


Grant Woods's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 47%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 36%; 2) 38%; 3) 36%
Don't know: 1) 14%; 2) 15%; 3) 14%

General election polling        
Grant Woods- Gabrielle Giffords- Undecided
         49%                       45%                    6%
         48%                       45%                    7%
         46%                       44%                   10%

J.D. Hayworth - Gabrielle Giffords - Undecided
          44%                        51%                     5%
          43%                        52%                     5%
          42%                        51%                     7%

Grant Woods - Ann Kirkpatrick - Undecided
        50%                       45%                  5%
        49%                       44%                  7%
        51%                       43%                  6%

Grant Woods was appointed Governor of Janet Napolitano in early 2009. He is a very moderate Republican and he faces a challenger from the right J.D. Hayworth.
On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords, who is considered a rising star, announced her campaign. Her colleague Ann Kirkpatrick remains a potential candidate. And despite the fact that Napolitano leads in all polls, she refused to run.

President McCain is very popular in his homestate, but will that be enough for Woods to win?

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 58-31 (+27)


Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R

NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Tossup


Analysis California Senate race 2010
15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: February 25th
Primary: June 8th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Barbara Boxer - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Jerry Brown - former Governor
   2) Brad Sherman - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Tom Campbell - former U.S. Representative, 2000 nominee
    2) Carly Fiorina - former CEO of Hewlett-Packard
    3) Chuck DeWore - state Assemblyman
2.Declined:
   1) Arnold Schwarzenegger - incumbent Governor
   2) Darrell Issa - U.S. Representative
   3) Kevin McCarthy - U.S. Representative

Polling
Tom Campbell - Carly Fiorina - Undecided
           50%                   40%               10%
           46%                   45%                9%
           42%                   48%               10%


Barbara Boxer's approval rating
Approve: 1) 62%; 2) 60%; 3) 60%
Dissapprove: 1) 31%; 2) 35%; 3) 32%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 5%; 3) 8%

General election polling        
Barbara Boxer - Carly Fiorina - Undecided
          56%                    38%                 6%
          57%                    39%                 4%
          59%                    36%                 5%

Barbara Boxer - Tom Campbell - Undecided
           61%                    35%                   4%
           58%                    36%                   6%
           60%                    33%                   7%

California is getting bluer, and Senator Boxer is pretty popular here, so it's expected to easily win again

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act NAY
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan NAY
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 37-55 (-18)


Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D
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« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2020, 05:33:56 am »

Analysis Colorado Senate race 2010
15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: May 27th
Primary: August 10th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Ken Salazar - incumbent U.S. Senator
2. Potential:
     Andrew Romanoff - former Speaker of Colorado HoR
3.Declined:
   1) Ed Perlmutter - U.S. Representative
   2) John Hickenlooper - Mayor of Denver

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Ken Buck - Weld County District Attorney
2. Potential:
    Jane Norton - former lieutenant Governor
3. Declined:
   1) Bob Schaffer - former U.S. Representative, 2008 nominee
   2) Bob Beauprez - former U.S. Representative
   3) Troy Eid - U.S. Attorney

Polling
Ken Buck - Jane Norton - Undecided
      45%               46%                 9%
      49%               44%                 7%
      46%               47%                 7%


Ken Salazar's approval rating
Approve: 1) 60%; 2) 62%; 3) 63%
Dissapprove: 1) 36%; 2) 32%; 3) 30%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 6%; 3) 7%

General election polling   
Ken Salazar - Ken Buck - Undecided
         60%              34%               6%
         59%              36%               5%
         58%              34%               8%

Ken Salazar - Jane Norton - Undecided
        59%                 33%                  8%
        59%                 35%                  6%
        57%                 36%                  7%

Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act NAY
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 45-50 (-5)


Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Likely D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Likely D[/coral]
Daily Kos: Safe D


Analysis Connecticut Senate race 2010
15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 8th
Primary: August 10th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Chris Dodd - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Richard Blumenthal - state Attorney General
2.Declined:
   1) Chris Murphy - U.S. Representative
   2) Rosa DeLauro - U.S. Representative

Polling
Chris Dodd - Richard Blumenthal - Undecided
        50%                        43%                     7%
        46%                        46%                     6%
        49%                        42%                     9%


Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Rob Simmons - former U.S. Representative
    2) Linda McMahon - businesswoman
    3) Peter Schiff - advisor to Ron Paul's 2008 campaign
2.Declined:
   1) Larry Kudlow - TV talk show host
   2) Jodi Rell - incumbent Governor

Polling
Simmons - McMahon - Schiff - Undecided
      45%             37%            8%          10%
      42%             41%           10%          7%
      40%             45%            7%           8%


Chris Dodd's approval rating
Approve: 1) 33%; 2) 32%; 3) 30%
Dissapprove: 1) 58%; 2) 61%; 3) 62%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 7%; 3) 8%

General election polling
Chris Dodd - Rob Simmons - Undecided
       42%                   51%                  7%
       44%                   50%                  6%
       41%                   50%                  9%

Chris Dodd - Linda McMahon - Undecided
       44%                   47%                     9%
       46%                   45%                     9%
       42%                   48%                    10%

Richard Blumenthal - Rob Simmons - Undecided
              51%                          44%                  5%
              50%                          43%                  7%
              51%                          43%                  6%

Richard Blumenthal - Linda McMahon - Undecided
              52%                           43%                     5%
              53%                           39%                     8%
              50%                           43%                     7%

Hypothetical:
Richard Blumenthal - Jodi Rell: 39% - 58%
Chris Dodd - Jodi Rell: 33% - 63%


Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act NAY
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan NAY
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 38-57 (-19)


Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R (flip) (assuming Dodd is nominee)
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean D
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup

Fox News: Lean R (flip) (assuming Dodd is nominee)
Daily Kos: Lean D (assuming Blumenthal is nominee)


Analysis Connecticut special Senate race 2010
15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 8th
Primary: August 10th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Michael Fedele - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Rob Simmons - U.S. Representative (running for other Senate seat)
   2) Linda McMahon - businesswoman (running for other Senate seat)
   3) Jodi Rell - incumbent Governor

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Ned Lamont - businessman, 2006 nominee
2. Potential:
    Chris Murphy - U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Richard Blumenthal - state Attorney General (running for other Senate seat)
   2) John Larson - U.S. Representative

Polling
Ned Lamont - Chris Murphy: 41%-52%


Michael Fedele's approval rating
Approve: 1) 40%; 2) 43%; 3) 42%
Dissapprove: 1) 35%; 2) 40%; 3) 41%
Don't know: 1) 25%; 2) 17%; 3) 17%

General election polling        
Michael Fedele - Ned Lamont - Undecided
           46%                    46%                  8%
           44%                    47%                  9%
           43%                    50%                  7%

Michael Fedele - Chris Murphy - Undecided
           40%                     53%                 7%
           39%                     53%                 8%
           40%                     54%                 6%


Recent votes of incumbent Senator
Job Creations Act YEA
Confirmation of Consuello Callahan YEA
Immigration Support Act YEA
McCain's approval 38-57 (-19)


Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean D (flip)
NYT: Lean D (flip)

CNN: Tossup
RCP: Lean D (flip)
Fox News: Tossup

Daily Kos: Lean D (flip)
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #23 on: June 30, 2020, 03:32:52 am »

Should I post all these detailed analyzes or just skip them and post primary results for every state?
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« Reply #24 on: June 30, 2020, 11:58:37 am »

Should I post all these detailed analyzes or just skip them and post primary results for every state?
Keep posting! I like it Smiley
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