Election Night 1984: A Mini-Timeline

[its_gi_brown]

The election of 1984 is neck and neck as the campaigns of Democrat Walter Mondale and Republican Ronald Reagan enter their final day. President Reagan hopes to beat back accusations of cognitive decline and mitigate the impact of his administration's notable scandals, while former Vice President Mondale needs to overcome Reagan's popularity and charisma. Vice President George Bush faces his own enemy in Kentucky Governor Martha Collins, who would be the first woman to serve as vice-president if elected.

NOTE: Public opinion is subject to fluctuation and polls are not always correct, so take the polling data below with a grain of salt.


National Popular Vote polling averages as of November 5, 1984

Reagan: 48.78%
Mondale: 48.66%


Polling averages by state as of November 5, 1984 (tossups considered 3% and under)

Republican: 179
Democratic: 171
Tossup: 188

NOTE: Any polling margin consistently under 3% is considered a tossup and not assigned to Reagan or Mondale. This leaves many paths to victory for both candidate. However, if you wanted to reduce the tossup margin to under 1%, you get a map that looks more like this.


Polling averages by state as of November 5, 1984 (tossups considered 1% and under)

Republican: 226
Democratic: 218
Tossup: 94

NOTE: Ronald Reagan currently has an approval rating of 48%, and a disapproval rating of 47%.

[its_gi_brown]

6:00 P.M. to 7:00 P.M.
November 6, 1984

NOTE: Remember the time zones in which states' polls close.
EST: Eastern Standard Time
CST: Central Standard Time
MST: Mountain Standard Time
PST: Pacific Standard Time
AST: Alaska Standard Time
HST: Hawaii Standard Time

6:00: Polls have closed in the following places:

Indiana (only in EST, but most of the state is in EST anyways)
Kentucky (Kentucky is split down the middle between the eastern and central time zone, so results will not be completely in until later)


6:44: All networks call Indiana for Reagan, noting the surprisingly high margins he is winning in rural areas of the state.


RECAP: As expected, Ronald Reagan has won the state of Indiana. He has additionally taken an early lead in Kentucky, but key Democratic strongholds in the CST part of the state remain open. As Kentucky is a hotly contested state, do not expect a call for several hours.


Electoral map as of 6:59 P.M.

Republican: 12
Democratic: 0

[Fetterman my beloved]

Literally 1984

[its_gi_brown]

Literally 1984

[its_gi_brown]

7:00 P.M. to 8:00 P.M.
November 6, 1984


7:00: Polls have closed in the following places:

Indiana (the small parts of the state not in EST)
Kentucky (the remainder of the state not in CST)
Florida (only in EST, but most of the state is in EST anyway)
Georgia
New Hampshire (some cities close their polls at 8:00)
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia


7:22: New Hampshire is called for Reagan. He currently leads Mondale there by 63.3% to 37.2%. Mondale is gaining on Reagan, but he isn't projected to break 40%.


7:34: South Carolina is called for Reagan, currently leading Mondale by about 12%. This is surely causing worry in the Mondale campaign, as other southern states such as Gerogia and Tennessee are crucial to a Democratic victory.


7:44: Virginia is called for Reagan. No surprise here.


7:51: Florida is called for Reagan. No surprise here either.


SWING STATE UPDATE:

Reagan leads narrowly in Vermont and Kentucky with a 0.12% and 0.77% lead, respectively. 31% of the vote has been counted for Vermont, and 20% for Kentucky.

Mondale leads in Georgia by 0.02%. with 18% of the vote in.


RECAP: The race is heating up. Reagan has overperformed in some states in the south.


Electoral map as of 7:59 P.M.

Republican: 57
Democratic: 0

[its_gi_brown]

7:30 poll closings
November 6, 1984


7:30: Polls have closed in the following places:

West Virginia
Ohio
North Carolina (EST only)

Mondale leads by 2.0% in West Virginia with 18% of the vote in, Reagan leads by 1.9% in Ohio and 7.7% in North Carolina with 12% and 9% of the vote in, respectively.

No projections were made for these states before 8:00.

[its_gi_brown]

8:00 P.M. to 9:00 P.M.
November 6, 1984


8:00: Polls have closed in the following places:

Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Maine
Maryland
Massachussetts
Michigan (EST only)
New Hampshire (EST only)
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Alabama
Florida (CST)
Illinois
Kansas
Mississippi
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas (CST)


8:01: The District of Columbia is called for Walter Mondale. He leads Reagan by a slim 75.9%.


8:07: Kansas and Oklahoma have been called for Ronald Reagan, as expected.


8:14: Massachusetts has been called for Walter Mondale, as expected.


8:20: Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas have been called for Ronald Reagan. He has overwhelming majorities in those three, as expected.


8:23: West Virginia has been called for Walter Mondale. His lead is slim, but is expected to hold throughout the night.


8:29: Illinois and Maryland have been called for Mondale. His lead in both states are slim but expected to hold.


8:32: Pennsylvania has been called for Mondale. He has preformed surprisingly well in this state.


SWING STATE UPDATE:

Reagan leads in Ohio, Missouri, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut.

Mondale leads in Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Vermont, Tennessee, and Michigan.


RECAP: Reagan seems to be preforming abnormally well in Connecticut. In the major swing states, the candidates are neck and neck.


Electoral map as of 8:59 P.M.

Republican: 96
Democratic: 81

[its_gi_brown]

8:30 poll closings
November 6, 1984


8:30:

Polls have closed in the following places:

Arkansas
North Carolina (EST only)

Reagan leads in both Arkansas and North Carolina.

No projections were made for these states before 8:00.

[its_gi_brown]

9:00 P.M. to 10:00 P.M.
November 6, 1984


9:00: Polls have closed in the following places:

New York
Rhode Island
Louisiana
Michigan (CST)
Minnesota
Nebraska
South Dakota
Wisconsin
Arizona
Colorado
New Mexico
Texas (MST)
Wyoming


8:05: Wyoming, Arizona and Nebraska have been called for Ronald Reagan, unsurprisingly.


8:06: North Carolina has been called for Ronald Reagan.


8:09: Rhode Island has been called for Mondale. This is also unsurprising.


8:10: Colorado has been called for Ronald Reagan.


8:14: Connecticut has been called for Reagan. He is up by 3.3 points, a surprisingly high amount.


8:19: New Jersey and Delaware have been called for Ronald Reagan. Mondale tried hard to take either of these states, but Reagan's popularity was too much to overcome. These states are also crucial to Ronald Reagan's plan for victory.


8:21: Minnesota has been called for Walter Mondale. This is unsurprising, as it is his home state.


8:22: Wisconsin has been called for Walter Mondale.


8:27: South Dakota has been called for Ronald Reagan. He leads Mondale by about ten points.


8:40: New York has been called for Walter Mondale. This comes as a badly-needed boost to his electoral vote count.


8:44: Vermont has been called for Walter Mondale. This state, despite being only three electoral votes, is considered crucial to a Mondale victory.


SWING STATE UPDATE:

Reagan leads in Ohio, Missouri, Louisiana, Georgia, and Arkansas.

Mondale leads in Kentucky, Maine, Tennessee, and Michigan.


Electoral map as of 9:59 P.M.

Republican: 183
Democratic: 145

[its_gi_brown]

10:00 P.M. to 11:00 P.M.
November 6, 1984


10:00: Polls have closed in the following places:

Iowa
North Dakota (CST)
Idaho (MST)
Montana
Oregon (MST)
Utah
Nevada


10:04: Ohio has been called for Ronald Reagan. This comes as a blow to the Mondale campaign's chances of victory, even though many expected it.


10:07: Maine has been called for Mondale. This state is in the same camp as Vermont: Small, close, and necessary for a Mondale win.


10:12: Utah and Nevada have been called for Ronald Reagan. No surprise.


10:15: Idaho has been called for Ronald Reagan.


10:22: Louisiana has been called for Ronald Reagan. This is a state deemed by the Mondale campaign to be "realistically winnable" and its loss will absolutely affect the outcome of this close election.


10:35: Montana and North Dakota have been called for Ronald Reagan. Montana is closer than Reagan, but both are considered to have been safely won by the President.


10:39: Tennessee has been called for Walter Mondale. This is a state he was expected to win, but its position firmly in the Mondale column has relieved many Mondale supporters tonight.


10:42: Iowa has been called for Walter Mondale. This is expected, as the farm crisis has devastated the state for years now.


10:51: Michigan has been called for Mondale. Despite leaning Democratic, this state contains many Reagan Democrats. Not enough, however, to propel Reagan to victory in this crucial state.

SWING STATE UPDATE:

Reagan leads in Missouri and Arkansas.

Mondale leads in Georgia, Kentucky, and New Mexico.


Electoral map as of 10:59 P.M.

Republican: 236
Democratic: 184

[its_gi_brown]

11:00 P.M. to 12:00 A.M.
November 6, 1984


11:00: Polls have closed in the following places:

North Dakota (MST)
California
Idaho (PST)
Oregon (PST)
Washington
Hawaii


11:15: Oregon has been called for Walter Mondale. This is expected.


11:17:: Hawaii has been called for Mondale.


11:22: Washington has been called for Walter Mondale. This is expected as well.


11:34: California has been called for Mondale as well. The election now lies in Kentucky, Arkansas, New Mexico, Missouri, and Georgia.


11:39: Ronald Reagan is predicted to win the state of Missouri and its eleven electoral votes.


SWING STATE UPDATE:

Mondale leads in Kentucky.

Reagan and Mondale are virtually tied in Arkansas and New Mexico.


Electoral map as of 11:59 P.M.

Democratic: 256
Republican: 247

[its_gi_brown]

12:00 A.M. to 1:00 A.M.
November 7, 1984


12:00: Polls have closed in the following places:

Alaska (AKST)


12:39: Walter Mondale is predicted to win the state of Kentucky and its nine electoral votes.


12:47: The state of Alaska is predicted, as expected, to go to Reagan.


12:51: Ronald Reagan wins the state of Georgia by a hair. New Mexico and Arkansas are the only states that have yet to be called.


12:58: The state of New Mexico is predicted to go to Ronald Reagan. Arkansas is the only state that has yet to be called at this hour.


SWING STATE UPDATE:


Walter Mondale and Ronald Reagan are virtually tied in Arkansas.


Electoral map as of 12:59 A.M.

Republican: 267
Democratic: 265

[its_gi_brown]

1:00 A.M. to 2:00 A.M.
November 7, 1984


1:00: Polls have closed in the following places:

Alaska (ALST)


1:49: The state of Arkansas is projected to be won by Walter Mondale. He has passed the threshold for 270 electoral votes and has won the presidential election of 1984 against the incumbent president, Ronald Reagan.


Electoral map as of 1:59 A.M.

Democratic: 271
Republican: 267

[its_gi_brown]

1984 United States presidential election

Electoral vote

Mondale: 271
Reagan: 267


Popular vote

Mondale: 49.9%
Reagan: 49.6%


States carried

Reagan: 30
Mondale: 20

[its_gi_brown]

Epilogue


Several recounts took place immediately after the election ended, but it didn't change the winner. Walter Mondale was narrowly elected with 271 electoral votes to Reagan's 267. He went on to decisively win reelection in 1988 against conservative firebrand Pat Buchanan.


In 1992, Vice President Martha Collins became the first woman to be nominated for President by a major party. She would go on to lose a close race to Bob Dole.








On Inauguration Day 1985, President Ronald Reagan met with President-Elect Walter Mondale privately for about five minutes. The next day, President Mondale was asked about what Reagan said by a reporter.

"Mr. Reagan met with me in private and congratulated me for my victory," said Mondale warmly. "He then told me that the American people were behind me every step of the way, and that if I ever needed his assistance, I can call him."

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Great timeline, Claire!

[Andrew Yang 2024]

How much was Arkansas won by?

[its_gi_brown]

How much was Arkansas won by?

Mondale won Arkansas by 9,901 votes out of 839,569 votes cast.