Cook Upgrades MT-Sen to "Tossup"

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1273587915982077953

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This changes nothing. Cook still has CO-SEN as a tossup.

[Woody]

This changes nothing. Cook still has CO-SEN as a tossup.

Gardner would be more likely to win than Bullock. Trump is going to win Montana by atleast 20 points, that would be impossible for Bullock to overcome, also, he's running against an incumbent. Trump last time around lost by 4.9 points in Colorado, and Darryl Glenn barely underperformed him, and he was running against Bennet, who was an incumbent.

This time around, Hickenlooper is running against an incumbent, he is more gaffe prone than Biden, he has a lot of baggage, he compared himself to slaves, he thought George Floyd was shot, he ignored to show up for court, the ethics commision found him guilty and fined him, his ethics scandal cost taxpayers over 100,000 dollars, he's made numerous comments on camera that he would be a lousy senator, that's it's not for him, etc. He's even struggling to survive the primary without Schumer's help, and that's pretty pathetic for an outgoing governor. So it's not even likely that he will be the one to face Gardner.

If you honestly think that Steve Bullock is going to perform better than Gardner you obviously have a bias.

[South Dakota Democrat]

This changes nothing. Cook still has CO-SEN as a tossup.

Gardner would be more likely to win than Bullock. Trump is going to win Montana by atleast 20 points, that would be impossible for Bullock to overcome, also, he's running against an incumbent. Trump last time around lost by 4.9 points in Colorado, and Darryl Glenn barely underperformed him, and he was running against Bennet, who was an incumbent.

This time around, Hickenlooper is running against an incumbent, he is more gaffe prone than Biden, he has a lot of baggage, he compared himself to slaves, he thought George Floyd was shot, he ignored to show up for court, the ethics commision found him guilty and fined him, his ethics scandal cost taxpayers over 100,000 dollars, he's made numerous comments on camera that he would be a lousy senator, that's it's not for him, etc. He's even struggling to survive the primary without Schumer's help, and that's pretty pathetic for an outgoing governor. So it's not even likely that he will be the one to face Gardner.

If you honestly think that Steve Bullock is going to perform better than Gardner you obviously have a bias.

"Trump is going to win Montana by at least 20 points" - that's a pretty bold assertion to make (and it's definitely not clear, or even the most likely outcome).

There's really no piece of evidence that suggests that Gardner can possibly win, either.  Show me some evidence.  I'll wait.  And not just that you think Hickenlooper is a bad candidate...actual evidence that shows that this will overcome the partisan lean of the state.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This changes nothing. Cook still has CO-SEN as a tossup.

Gardner would be more likely to win than Bullock.

No.

Trump is going to win Montana by atleast 20 points, that would be impossible for Bullock to overcome

He did that before, albeit not with federal levels of partisanship. Polls suggest Trump isn't on course to repeat his own performance.

, also, he's running against an incumbent.

This is an incumbent vs. incumbent race and Bullock has far more access to the benefits of incumbency as a sitting, successful governor during the COVID-19 crisis who has benefited from local media coverage of his response.

Trump last time around lost by 4.9 points in Colorado, and Darryl Glenn barely underperformed him, and he was running against Bennet, who was an incumbent.

Gardner may well out perform Trump, but the leads we've seen so far suggest they're both over 15% their Democratic opponents. Those are safe D margins in a state like CO.

This time around, Hickenlooper is running against an incumbent,

That helps Gardner, but he's apparently a pretty unpopular one if approval ratings are anything to go by.

is more gaffe prone than Biden, he has a lot of baggage, he compared himself to slaves, he thought George Floyd was shot,

Won't matter much in the GE, although gaffes might reduce his margin by a couple of percentage points.

he ignored to show up for court, the ethics commision found him guilty and fined him, his ethics scandal cost taxpayers over 100,000 dollars, he's made numerous comments on camera that he would be a lousy senator, that's it's not for him, etc.

These do matter more and if post-court case polling suggests they're genuinely hurting him, I might move CO-SEN back to likely D. The lack of signs of a Romanoff landslide suggests to me that they won't matter, though; if they were going to hurt Hickenlooper in the GE, I'd expect a magnified effect in the primary.

If you honestly think that Steve Bullock is going to perform better than Gardner you obviously have a bias.

I have a bias (we all do, though I hope I mostly keep mine in check) but I suspect most blue avatars would agree that Bullock has a better chance of winning than Gardner. Polling certainly suggests this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good, Daines is a rubber stamp for McConnell

[Lambsbread]

ESKETITTTTTTTT

[MT Treasurer]

No, it’s not a Tossup, not with an incumbent of this caliber running for reelection. This might be difficult for outsiders to comprehend, but Montanans of all ideological and demographic stripes are united in their belief that now more than ever Washington needs a soothing, compassionate, bipartisan, optimistic voice representing Montana values in Congress, and our own Senator Steven David Daines (Republican-incumbent, he’s the incumbent) provides exactly that by delivering for Montanans in every part of the Treasure State. The disparity in misleading media coverage during this unprecedented crisis is not going to distract our attention away from the valuable federal relief funds championed by Senator Daines, most recently through his bipartisan Recharge and Empower Local Innovation and Entrepreneurs Fund for Main Street Act, which I discussed at great length with Mike and Chad on our last motorcycle trip. When I told them that Senator Daines said on C-SPAN that “This bipartisan legislation is about taking the decision-making powers out of the hands of Washington, D.C., and putting it in the hands of our local communities who know their own needs best,” we all immediately began to tear up and brim with pride, joy, and unwavering dedication in our support for Senator Daines' reelection bid. We tried to behold the natural wonders, but they just paled in comparison to Senator Daines' tireless work on behalf of us... ya know, us ordinary folks. I guess this must be the magic they say our Senators are so good at conjuring up. I certainly know that I won’t live to see the day when either of them is defeated.

[Gracile]

This changes nothing. Cook still has CO-SEN as a tossup.

To be fair, the discerning, reputable minds of the Cook Political Report (Dave Wasserman, Amy Walter, Jessica Taylor, et al.) will find a way to declare every race a tossup by the end of the cycle. Except Georgia. That race should never be considered a tossup because it's just not there yet.

[Orser67]

Good news. Cook isn't necessarily a great prediction service (with the notable exception of Dave Wasserman) but it is a good indicator of conventional wisdom. Confidence in a campaign can often create a virtuous cycle, particularly with regards to fundraising.

[KaiserDave]

No, it’s not a Tossup, not with an incumbent of this caliber running for reelection. This might be difficult for outsiders to comprehend, but Montanans of all ideological and demographic stripes are united in their belief that now more than ever Washington needs a soothing, compassionate, bipartisan, optimistic voice representing Montana values in Congress, and our own Senator Steven David Daines (Republican-incumbent, he’s the incumbent) provides exactly that by delivering for Montanans in every part of the Treasure State. The disparity in misleading media coverage during this unprecedented crisis is not going to distract our attention away from the valuable federal relief funds championed by Senator Daines, most recently through his bipartisan Recharge and Empower Local Innovation and Entrepreneurs Fund for Main Street Act, which I discussed at great length with Mike and Chad on our last motorcycle trip. When I told them that Senator Daines said on C-SPAN that “This bipartisan legislation is about taking the decision-making powers out of the hands of Washington, D.C., and putting it in the hands of our local communities who know their own needs best,” we all immediately began to tear up and brim with pride, joy, and unwavering dedication in our support for Senator Daines' reelection bid. We tried to behold the natural wonders, but they just paled in comparison to Senator Daines' tireless work on behalf of us... ya know, us ordinary folks. I guess this must be the magic they say our Senators are so good at conjuring up. I certainly know that I won’t live to see the day when either of them is defeated.

(Chef's Kiss)

[PAK Man]

Cook's ratings always baffle me. Half the time his ratings don't make any sense. I consider it Lean R, as there's really no proof yet that Daines is in danger.

[Lognog]

Cook's ratings always baffle me. Half the time his ratings don't make any sense. I consider it Lean R, as there's really no proof yet that Daines is in danger.

I think they see inside polling that the rest of us don't

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

This changes nothing. Cook still has CO-SEN as a tossup.

Gardner would be more likely to win than Bullock. Trump is going to win Montana by atleast 20 points, that would be impossible for Bullock to overcome, also, he's running against an incumbent. Trump last time around lost by 4.9 points in Colorado, and Darryl Glenn barely underperformed him, and he was running against Bennet, who was an incumbent.

This time around, Hickenlooper is running against an incumbent, he is more gaffe prone than Biden, he has a lot of baggage, he compared himself to slaves, he thought George Floyd was shot, he ignored to show up for court, the ethics commision found him guilty and fined him, his ethics scandal cost taxpayers over 100,000 dollars, he's made numerous comments on camera that he would be a lousy senator, that's it's not for him, etc. He's even struggling to survive the primary without Schumer's help, and that's pretty pathetic for an outgoing governor. So it's not even likely that he will be the one to face Gardner.

If you honestly think that Steve Bullock is going to perform better than Gardner you obviously have a bias.

Amazing you have the audacity to be so obnoxious when it is you presenting the absurd, completely baseless asertion.

[Xing]

They must be referring specifically to Missoula county, as that’s the only place I could see Bullock coming close to winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds winning AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, ME, MT and NC cements 53 seats and Dems wont have to rely on Sinema and Manchin to get rid of filibuster that's why its important. All signs point to King joining with Ds to eliminate the filibuster. Thus DC statehood is born and since Robert's is going the way of Kennedy,  it will likely stand a certain constitutional challenge