538 model & poll tracker thread
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 57504 times)
Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #900 on: October 28, 2020, 04:21:27 PM »
« edited: October 28, 2020, 04:32:25 PM by Fmr. Gov. NickG »
Biden did just achieve an important milestone in the 538 model.  
Trump now wins only two of the 22 maps on the model masthead!

Curious, map #3 (presumably the closest Biden win) is a map in which Biden loses Pennsylvania but wins Georgia.

Edit: This didn’t last long...it switched back to 19-3 five minutes after I posted.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #901 on: October 28, 2020, 04:24:19 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 04:27:52 PM by LimoLiberal »
I'm a bit confused how Biden is only leading by 8.8 in the aggregate after today's polls.

Edit: To add on to this, I think Rasmussen, SurveyMonkey, IBD/Tipp and "Spry Strategies" are really weighing down Biden to the point where he's gone from +9.4 to +8.8 in the past two days.
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Figueira
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« Reply #902 on: October 28, 2020, 04:26:36 PM »
How many times has Iowa switched colors today?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #903 on: October 28, 2020, 04:27:26 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 28, 2020, 04:24:19 PM
I'm a bit confused how Biden is only leading by 8.8 in the aggregate after today's polls.

Previous CNN poll was an even bigger margin than today's.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #904 on: October 28, 2020, 04:59:31 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 28, 2020, 04:24:19 PM
I'm a bit confused how Biden is only leading by 8.8 in the aggregate after today's polls.

Edit: To add on to this, I think Rasmussen, SurveyMonkey, IBD/Tipp and "Spry Strategies" are really weighing down Biden to the point where he's gone from +9.4 to +8.8 in the past two days.

Nate touched on this:
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #905 on: October 28, 2020, 05:16:09 PM »
Boooo

Texas jumped from Trump 62% to 70% in the span of 3 days.

All due to the YouGov, NYT/Siena & Univision polls
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #906 on: October 28, 2020, 05:46:40 PM »
Yeah, the fact that the majority of the real polls we've gotten today were double digits, yet the national 538 average is still only +8.9 means they're giving more than a bit of weight to Ras, Spry, IBD, etc
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The Mikado
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« Reply #907 on: October 28, 2020, 05:49:33 PM »
IBD's at least a real poll.

The Spry poll is really, really weird and I'd love to see a deep dive into this "Women's Liberation Front."
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #908 on: October 28, 2020, 06:06:14 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on October 28, 2020, 05:49:33 PM
IBD's at least a real poll.

The Spry poll is really, really weird and I'd love to see a deep dive into this "Women's Liberation Front."

Take a look at Spry's Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/sprystrategies) and it will tell you all you need to know about them.
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mardigrappa
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« Reply #909 on: October 28, 2020, 06:10:41 PM »
People realize that as election day gets closer the forecast becomes a bit more 'definitive' right? Especially as those older polls tend to phase out.

Or it becomes more of a now-cast so to speak. That's what I've been noticing in quite a bit of these states.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #910 on: October 29, 2020, 12:50:07 PM »
So here's some weirdness from the negative state correlations side of things:

If Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, he has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

If Biden wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Minnesota, he still has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

However, if Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, but loses Minnesota, he suddenly has a 53% chance of winning Mississippi.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #911 on: October 29, 2020, 01:40:10 PM »
538 avg PA before Q-pac: Biden +5.2
After Q-pac: Biden +5.2

Huh?

Also, Trump getting +1 in Iowa, despite it being his only recent lead of the last 8 polls in 538s forecast, jumped IA to 54% Trump 46% Biden. Joke.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #912 on: October 29, 2020, 01:43:20 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on October 29, 2020, 12:50:07 PM
So here's some weirdness from the negative state correlations side of things:

If Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, he has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

If Biden wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Minnesota, he still has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

However, if Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, but loses Minnesota, he suddenly has a 53% chance of winning Mississippi.

This one actually kind of makes sense — if Biden’s winning GA and NC but losing MN, something must have turbocharged black turnout nationwide.
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emailking
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« Reply #913 on: October 29, 2020, 03:55:17 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on October 29, 2020, 12:50:07 PM
So here's some weirdness from the negative state correlations side of things:

If Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, he has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

If Biden wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Minnesota, he still has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

However, if Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, but loses Minnesota, he suddenly has a 53% chance of winning Mississippi.

Could just be the finite number of simulations. Probably very few maps where he wins GA & NC but loses MN.
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Smash255
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« Reply #914 on: October 29, 2020, 11:27:32 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 29, 2020, 01:40:10 PM
538 avg PA before Q-pac: Biden +5.2
After Q-pac: Biden +5.2

Huh?

Also, Trump getting +1 in Iowa, despite it being his only recent lead of the last 8 polls in 538s forecast, jumped IA to 54% Trump 46% Biden. Joke.

Keep in mind that while 538 doesn't remove a poll when the same pollster comes out with another poll it will receive less weight.

In the case of PA, the previous QU poll was Biden +8, a Biden +7 poll from them really isn't going to cause any shift.

In Iowa, the previous QU poll was Biden +5, so that poll is now weighted a bit less since a new QU poll is out. 
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Horus
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« Reply #915 on: October 30, 2020, 08:13:25 AM »
Trump has dropped to 10 in the model.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #916 on: October 30, 2020, 09:08:29 AM »
Quote from: Horus on October 30, 2020, 08:13:25 AM
Trump has dropped to 10 in the model.

Heavily favored, here we come! (Three more dots!)
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Brittain33
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« Reply #917 on: October 30, 2020, 09:10:58 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on October 29, 2020, 01:43:20 PM
Quote from: Crumpets on October 29, 2020, 12:50:07 PM
So here's some weirdness from the negative state correlations side of things:

If Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, he has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

If Biden wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Minnesota, he still has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

However, if Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, but loses Minnesota, he suddenly has a 53% chance of winning Mississippi.

This one actually kind of makes sense — if Biden’s winning GA and NC but losing MN, something must have turbocharged black turnout nationwide.

Also, isn’t there a latitude factor in the model?
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prag_prog
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« Reply #918 on: October 30, 2020, 02:29:03 PM »
I am gonna miss the 538 podcasts after this Tuesday. Been following them a lot in recent months and got to say, they have been very informative
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #919 on: October 30, 2020, 08:54:51 PM »


We've hit Biden at 90.
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charcuterie
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« Reply #920 on: October 30, 2020, 08:55:34 PM »
I was starting to wonder if this day was going to come before the election.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #921 on: October 30, 2020, 08:58:29 PM »
It's a rounded 90, he's actually at 89.6 or so.  I think he needs to actually reach 90 to be "strongly favored."
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #922 on: October 30, 2020, 09:01:25 PM »
Quote from: prag_prog on October 30, 2020, 02:29:03 PM
I am gonna miss the 538 podcasts after this Tuesday. Been following them a lot in recent months and got to say, they have been very informative
the podcasts arent going away after Tuesday, they might even get more interesting as they might do post election analysis and stuff and talk about the next presidental term(hopefully Biden) and his agenda and cabinet appointments
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Gass3268
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« Reply #923 on: October 30, 2020, 09:10:27 PM »
I want single digits by Tuesday!
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #924 on: October 30, 2020, 09:39:43 PM »

Why wait? He's already down to a 9.96% chance right now.
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