538 model & poll tracker thread
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 57043 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #625 on: September 15, 2020, 11:31:26 AM »

Biden's average lead in WI decreased in the poll tracker after his +10 CNN poll got added. Not sure what the deal is with that, just kind of funny.

Nate is saying that there's too many Wisconsin polls so it didn't do much, but I swear to god you know if that poll was like Biden +2 it would've moved much more!
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #626 on: September 15, 2020, 12:22:26 PM »

Biden's average lead in WI decreased in the poll tracker after his +10 CNN poll got added. Not sure what the deal is with that, just kind of funny.

Nate is saying that there's too many Wisconsin polls so it didn't do much, but I swear to god you know if that poll was like Biden +2 it would've moved much more!

But it moved it down. Also, the other WI polls tend to be higher too.

I don't consider this a team sport or anything. The polling averages aren't a scoreboard to me, I really don't care, but purely for informational purposes I would like to know what exactly is going on with these numbers so I have more of an idea of what to expect.
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American2020
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« Reply #627 on: September 15, 2020, 12:57:08 PM »

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pantsaregood
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« Reply #628 on: September 16, 2020, 02:34:12 PM »

Model is now showing Biden at an 87% chance of winning Michigan while he still shows an 86% change of winning CO.

This model is weird.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #629 on: September 16, 2020, 02:54:38 PM »

Model is now showing Biden at an 87% chance of winning Michigan while he still shows an 86% change of winning CO.

This model is weird.

I mean, it makes sense in a way, that states with a lot of polling the model is a lot more confident in than states with just a little polling. If CO had the polling density of MI Biden's chances there would probably be 95%+.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #630 on: September 16, 2020, 07:07:05 PM »

For anybody who wants a map, here's 538's current forecast using their color scheme from 2012:

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bilaps
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« Reply #631 on: September 17, 2020, 06:56:47 AM »

Well, while he continues to get terrible state polls, Trump is now down 6,7% in 538 national polling average which is the smallest different since I think June 5th.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #632 on: September 17, 2020, 07:03:44 AM »

Well, while he continues to get terrible state polls, Trump is now down 6,7% in 538 national polling average which is the smallest different since I think June 5th.

We're in a pretty big drought of high quality polls, so that's mostly why... not to mention the Rasmussen poll knocked it down 0.3/0.4%
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Skye
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« Reply #633 on: September 17, 2020, 05:50:13 PM »

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kph14
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« Reply #634 on: September 18, 2020, 05:59:20 AM »


The Senate forecast is out:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

In my opinion they overestimate the incumbency advantage quite a bit. They have Gardner losing by just 4 points and Collins losing by just half a point.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #635 on: September 18, 2020, 06:57:10 AM »

*Looks at AL*

Yep incumbency is weighted too heavily
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #636 on: September 18, 2020, 08:43:23 AM »

*Looks at AL*

Yep incumbency is weighted too heavily

This was their big mistake in their last Senate model!  You’d think they’d learn from it.
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American2020
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« Reply #637 on: September 18, 2020, 08:47:31 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #638 on: September 18, 2020, 08:48:54 AM »

It's clear that it's mostly b/c of bad/junky polls.
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American2020
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« Reply #639 on: September 18, 2020, 09:28:42 AM »

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ultraviolet
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« Reply #640 on: September 18, 2020, 09:31:28 AM »



You can clearly see that Trump’s line is above basically all the poll dots, and Biden’s below.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #641 on: September 18, 2020, 09:51:13 AM »

You can clearly see that Trump’s line is above basically all the poll dots, and Biden’s below.

It's becoming more and more obvious that Silver has put his thumb on the scale. Every single Trump-friendly poll is given outsize influence, no matter how crappy or stale it is. At the same time polls that are favorable for Biden barely move the needle, even if they come from reputable firms.
This year there is barely a difference between RCP and 538 averages, and I don't think that's a coincidence.   
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #642 on: September 18, 2020, 10:01:28 AM »

You can clearly see that Trump’s line is above basically all the poll dots, and Biden’s below.

It's becoming more and more obvious that Silver has put his thumb on the scale. Every single Trump-friendly poll is given outsize influence, no matter how crappy or stale it is. At the same time polls that are favorable for Biden barely move the needle, even if they come from reputable firms.
This year there is barely a difference between RCP and 538 averages, and I don't think that's a coincidence.   

When I run a weighted poll average based on 538 polls, I get Biden 51.1 - Trump 43.2 (Biden +7.9). Something's weird with their polling average, since literally EVERY SINGLE RED DOT is on or below Trump's average in recent weeks, with very few exceptions.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #643 on: September 18, 2020, 10:04:30 AM »

You can clearly see that Trump’s line is above basically all the poll dots, and Biden’s below.

It's becoming more and more obvious that Silver has put his thumb on the scale. Every single Trump-friendly poll is given outsize influence, no matter how crappy or stale it is. At the same time polls that are favorable for Biden barely move the needle, even if they come from reputable firms.
This year there is barely a difference between RCP and 538 averages, and I don't think that's a coincidence.   

On that front, why is the approval tracker giving so much wait to Rasmussen daily polls and so much less to say, YouGov daily polls?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #644 on: September 18, 2020, 10:05:13 AM »



Saying Florida polls look "weak" when a Trump +1 state has recent polls as Biden +5, Biden +3, Biden +1, seems.... like really bad analysis.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #645 on: September 18, 2020, 10:06:32 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2020, 11:22:15 AM by ProgressiveModerate »



Saying Florida polls look "weak" when a Trump +1 state has recent polls as Biden +5, Biden +3, Biden +1, seems.... like really bad analysis.

Remember; a Biden lead less than 5 in any state means he's bound to lose because muh 2016. Anyone who disagrees with this is just wrong
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #646 on: September 18, 2020, 10:29:27 AM »

You can clearly see that Trump’s line is above basically all the poll dots, and Biden’s below.

It's becoming more and more obvious that Silver has put his thumb on the scale. Every single Trump-friendly poll is given outsize influence, no matter how crappy or stale it is. At the same time polls that are favorable for Biden barely move the needle, even if they come from reputable firms.
This year there is barely a difference between RCP and 538 averages, and I don't think that's a coincidence.   

When I run a weighted poll average based on 538 polls, I get Biden 51.1 - Trump 43.2 (Biden +7.9). Something's weird with their polling average, since literally EVERY SINGLE RED DOT is on or below Trump's average in recent weeks, with very few exceptions.

The Economist aggregate by Elliot Morris is also roughly Biden +8.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #647 on: September 18, 2020, 10:34:02 AM »

You can clearly see that Trump’s line is above basically all the poll dots, and Biden’s below.

It's becoming more and more obvious that Silver has put his thumb on the scale. Every single Trump-friendly poll is given outsize influence, no matter how crappy or stale it is. At the same time polls that are favorable for Biden barely move the needle, even if they come from reputable firms.
This year there is barely a difference between RCP and 538 averages, and I don't think that's a coincidence.   

On that front, why is the approval tracker giving so much wait to Rasmussen daily polls and so much less to say, YouGov daily polls?

Because Rasmussen claims to be a poll of likely voters, which has a higher weight.  The YouGov daily snapshots are adults and also report their RV subsample result.  Having said that, I wouldn't weight the YouGov dailies heavily either; they're extremely bouncy (it's not uncommon to see them go up or down several points from day to day).
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #648 on: September 18, 2020, 11:14:42 AM »

Why do they have an option for a polls-only model for the Senate but not the presidency?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #649 on: September 18, 2020, 02:51:18 PM »

Why do they have an option for a polls-only model for the Senate but not the presidency?

Because it would show Biden with higher chance of winning.
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