538 model & poll tracker thread

[BlueSwan]

I'm actually all for at least one model that perhaps over states Trump's chances.

The issue isn't really that it overates Trump's chances, but that the level of uncertainty is pretty high. If there was less uncertainty Trump's chances would be lower. It kind of seems to me that Nate went out of his way to make every possible adjustment to make the model look more fair

Yeah. In my mind you can't just quantify the fact that there's a pandemic or that there is some way to go before the election in any meaningful manner. The fact is that if the election was held tomorrow, Trumps chances would be a hell of a lot lower than 29%.

[Senator Spark]

Here is the trend implied in every state and district for his median popular vote estimates. There seems to be a little bit of underestimating of partisan margin effect again but overall very stable from 2016.

AL: D+2
AK: -
AZ: -
AR: D+7
CA: R+5
CO: -
CT: -
DE: D+7
DC: R+7
FL: R+1
GA: R+3
HI: R+4
ID: R+2
IL: R+1
IN: -
IA: -
KS: D+2
KY: D+5
LA: R+1
ME: -
 ME1: R+1
 ME2: D+1
MD: R+4
MA: R+2
MI: D+2
MN: R+1
MS: D+1
MO: D+4
MT: D+3
NE: -
 NE1: D+3
 NE2: R+2
 NE3: D+2
NV: R+1
NH: D+2
NJ: R+2
NM: R+1
NY: R+2
NC: R+1
ND: D+6
OH: D+2
OK: D+3
OR: R+2
PA: D+1
RI: D+3
SC: -
SD: D+4
TN: D+4
TX: R+1
UT: R+4
VT: D+4
VA: D+1
WA: D+3
WV: D+3
WI: D+1
WY: -

Sun Belt trends R!

[Lief 🗽]

Sad to see Nate Silver continue to delay his model release, as he desperately tries to rejig his spreadsheets to keep Biden's win chance under 70%. Just unbelievable cowardice from this guy.

Yup, I called it. What an embarrassing little man.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sad to see Nate Silver continue to delay his model release, as he desperately tries to rejig his spreadsheets to keep Biden's win chance under 70%. Just unbelievable cowardice from this guy.

Yup, I called it. What an embarrassing little man.

He didn't even make a senate model. However, who ever did the graphics did a good job

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1293527824876306433

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn's critique:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1293534832010702851

[Ferguson97]

Unpopular opinion but I mostly agree with the model? People are underrating the uncertainty of the race with regard to fraud.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Unpopular opinion but I mostly agree with the model? People are underrating the uncertainty of the race with regard to fraud.

The uncertainty in the 538 model goes both ways though. Biden certainly has less than a 7% chance in AR and less than a 13% chance in MS. It's not only that though but also how the model has states voting relative to eachother.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think Biden's chance to win is closer to 85% than 71%. Unless something drastic happens, Trump can only hang on with severe voter suppression. He's in worse shape than in '16.

81% chance for Biden NPV win is also pretty low. With CA having moved to Titanium D and TX competitive, there is almost zero chance Biden misses to receive the most votes. I'd say his chance is almost 99%, while 81% chance for an absolute majority (>50%).

[wbrocks67]

I'm just confused why the fundamentals seem to favor Trump. You have him considerably outperforming nearly all of the current polling, despite the fact that most polling has been pretty steady for *MONTHS* now.

At this rate, I'll just stick to their state polling averages pages rather than the forecast.

[Mike Thick]

This really feels like Nate started with the prior that Trump has to have a decent chance of winning, and any model that didn’t show that is biased, and worked backwards from there.

But whatever keeps Democrats nervous enough to vote is good, so it’s fine

[Gass3268]

I like the little fox mascot and that's pretty much it. Not happy there isn't a national map that you can hover over to get their odds.

[Person Man]

I like the little fox mascot and that's pretty much it. Not happy there isn't a national map that you can hover over to get their odds.

I thought it was a #2 pencil head

[Skye]

I like the little fox mascot and that's pretty much it. Not happy there isn't a national map that you can hover over to get their odds.

If you notice, their front page has a "Biden is favored" and not "Biden has 70% chance to win". When you open the forecast, it's the same, you have to scroll down to see the numbers and then there's the snake chart. The way it's presented almost feels like it's a deliberate attempt to downplay the numbers.

Not to say the overall model *is* bad. I certainly appreciate that they put a lot of emphasis on the uncertainty on how the race can change and manage to put it in a larger than expected number.

[AGA]

It has Ohio and Iowa more likely to flip than Texas; some people here are going to be pissed.

[Andrew]

Yeah, Nate juiced this b/c he was scared after 2016. For sure.

Scared of what?  He produced a model in 2016 that said Trump had a reasonable chance of winning, and Trump won.  Then lots of people who don’t comprehend probability got upset.  Nothing very scary there.

[wbrocks67]

He took all this time and did no Senate or house forecast too. Ugh.

[pppolitics]

This model is way more optimistic for Trump/pessimistic for Biden than other models.

Other models have Biden favors winning NC at ~66% while this model has Trump favored to win at ~51%

Meanwhile, other models have Trump favored to win GA at ~51% while this model has Trump favored to win at 66%

[Skye]

He took all this time and did no Senate or house forecast too. Ugh.

They released it separately in September for the 2016 election, I don't know what you guys are complaining about.

[wbrocks67]

This model is way more optimistic for Trump/pessimistic for Biden than other models.

Other models have Biden favors winning NC at ~66% while this model has Trump favored to win at ~51%

Meanwhile, other models have Trump favored to win GA at ~51% while this model has Trump favored to win at 66%

Yeah, I find it odd how we've had Biden leading in NC for months now, besides a few sh**tty online pollsters in the last week who have it like Trump +1, and yet, Trump is favored to win? Huh?

[pppolitics]

This model is way more optimistic for Trump/pessimistic for Biden than other models.

Other models have Biden favors winning NC at ~66% while this model has Trump favored to win at ~51%

Meanwhile, other models have Trump favored to win GA at ~51% while this model has Trump favored to win at 66%

Yeah, I find it odd how we've had Biden leading in NC for months now, besides a few sh**tty online pollsters in the last week who have it like Trump +1, and yet, Trump is favored to win? Huh?

FiveThirtyEight's polling average in NC always has Biden ahead, so "the fundamentals" must favor Trump for some reason.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this part got me:

The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.

So the "fundamentals" lurch Trump's chance from 7% to 29%? That seems a little ridiculous

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Nate nailed one election. He’s not God. This is a literal repeat of 2016.

It means absolutely nothing that he has a 70% chance. Clinton was around 90% on election night. Lol, come on man!

[It’s so Joever]

This seems pretty accurate, I don’t know why Atlas is so upset.

[pppolitics]

Nate nailed one election. He’s not God. This is a literal repeat of 2016.

It means absolutely nothing that he has a 70% chance. Clinton was around 90% on election night. Lol, come on man!

Nope

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/