538 model & poll tracker thread

[wbrocks67]

Is Biden’s lead shrinking finally? I feel like this was inevitable, not even because Biden is a bad candidate or anything, it’s because hate for a president can only burn for so long before things normalize.

no its bc all we've gotten so far this week is online polls, half of which are junky

[wbrocks67]

Arizona's last polls are +4, +5, +5, +6, and even.

Average is +2.4? I don't get how they're doing this

[ProgressiveModerate]

When Biden gains in the polls, the polls must be fake and wrong. When Trump gains in polls Biden is doomed to fail. The electoral map is still quite rosy to Biden:

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is Biden’s lead shrinking finally? I feel like this was inevitable, not even because Biden is a bad candidate or anything, it’s because hate for a president can only burn for so long before things normalize.

I'm pretty sure it's just noise. The real warning sign to look for is if Trump starts gaining ground rather than Biden losing it. Though this may be an inevitability too as we get closer to election day and people start really deciding.

Let's be honest though, a Biden win above 10% was always very unlikely in the end. Let's not assume that just because we've been spoiled by polls showing him up by more than 10% automatically means that a seven or eight point lead is bad.

[Pericles]

When Biden gains in the polls, the polls must be fake and wrong. When Trump gains in polls Biden is doomed to fail. The electoral map is still quite rosy to Biden:

I don't see why GA should be so R for the Senate. Let's be generous to Republicans and say both are Tilt R, that still means there's a very real possibility at least one race flips. Texas seems underrated too as a competitive race, based on current margins it would probably be a low single digit win for Cornyn.

[ProgressiveModerate]

When Biden gains in the polls, the polls must be fake and wrong. When Trump gains in polls Biden is doomed to fail. The electoral map is still quite rosy to Biden:

I don't see why GA should be so R for the Senate. Let's be generous to Republicans and say both are Tilt R, that still means there's a very real possibility at least one race flips. Texas seems underrated too as a competitive race, based on current margins it would probably be a low single digit win for Cornyn.

B/C of Georgia going to runoff, and Biden wins most of the time, so the environment is less good for Ds. Osoff can't win outright unless he gets above 50% which is a pretty demanding task in a state as polarized as GA

[Pericles]

When Biden gains in the polls, the polls must be fake and wrong. When Trump gains in polls Biden is doomed to fail. The electoral map is still quite rosy to Biden:

I don't see why GA should be so R for the Senate. Let's be generous to Republicans and say both are Tilt R, that still means there's a very real possibility at least one race flips. Texas seems underrated too as a competitive race, based on current margins it would probably be a low single digit win for Cornyn.

B/C of Georgia going to runoff, and Biden wins most of the time, so the environment is less good for Ds. Osoff can't win outright unless he gets above 50% which is a pretty demanding task in a state as polarized as GA

Abrams got 48.8%, so it's within reach. And we shouldn't assume there will be a runoff dropoff like 2008, Barrow got 48% in his runoff. Especially if Senate control is at stake.

[Lief 🗽]

Even the RCP average has a higher Biden lead than 538 at this point. Nate Silver should be ashamed with himself. What a disgusting little man.

[Non Swing Voter]

The Biden lead isn't really shrinking that much.  The lead has been pretty stable and I am not sure I see many ways it's going to change going forward.  Lets not forget that Biden was running ads in Iowa showing his polling leads in battleground states and now those leads are largely the same as they were. 

This article argues that his lead is based on seniors and college educated whites defecting to Biden: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/who-s-behind-trump-s-big-polling-deficit-two-key-n1234605

Seniors and suburban UMC whites supported him heavily in the primaries as well.  It seems like all evidence points to a stable Biden 7 point lead. 

[Arizona Iced Tea]

His lead might be dropping or it could just be statistical noise. I think we need to wait a few more weeks or so to tell.

[Devout Centrist]

It's just as we feared. The GOYA bump has arrived. We're doomed!

[GeorgiaModerate]

See Nate Silver's Twitter feed.  They made an adjustment to the way they handle partisan polls and it may be what's affecting the average here.  The RCP and Economist averages have been quite stable.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the fact that it was at +9.6, and now 2 full points, b/c of +7 and +8 polls, even though there have been TWO +15 polls in the mix at the same doesn't make sense to me.

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1287418190855905283

[wbrocks67]

are they just not gonna publish the model or... i mean, it's almost august FFS

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1287863200570994689

[wbrocks67]

It's honestly a disgrace that their model isn't up yet. What is the hold up?!

[Devout Centrist]

Gotta push that sweet, sweet horserace. Need clicks!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm honestly rather amused by the anger being levied at this model not being released. I kinda hope Silver ends up never publishing it

[emailking]

It's honestly a disgrace that their model isn't up yet. What is the hold up?!

Design and run your own model if it's that much of an issue for you. They have no obligation to even make a model at all much less on your preferred timeline.

[JRP1994]

wbrocks is right. Silver's having too much fun being the pundit he swore he'd never become and tweeting bad COVID takes

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why is everyone so upset about the model not being released. 538 is under no obligation to create a model; it just goes against tradition. We have other models like the Economists, JHK. If people are so upset, just go ahead and make your own model and see how easy/difficult it is to make.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Nah, Nate is just waiting for the race to tighten so he can brag he was right in case Trump wins. He probably releases the model in mid to late August.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It's honestly a disgrace that their model isn't up yet. What is the hold up?!

Big swing and a miss by Nate this year.

[Lief 🗽]

Sad to see Nate Silver continue to delay his model release, as he desperately tries to rejig his spreadsheets to keep Biden's win chance under 70%. Just unbelievable cowardice from this guy.