538 model & poll tracker thread

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Why do they have an option for a polls-only model for the Senate but not the presidency?

Because it would show Biden with higher chance of winning.

Nate is deathly afraid of making it look like Trump has no chance, so he's cooked the model this year to ensure Trump gets all of the favors... including gutting the polls-only model

[GeorgiaModerate]

The model now shows Biden and Trump tied at 50.0% each in ME-02.  Trump has led up to now.

[American2020]

Weird and not-so-weird possibilities
The chances that these situations will crop up

Trump wins the popular vote Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
12 in 100

Biden wins the popular vote Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
88 in 100

Trump wins more than 50% of the popular vote Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
9 in 100

Biden wins more than 50% of the popular vote Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
83 in 100

Trump wins in a landslide Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
<1 in 100

Biden wins in a landslide Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
30 in 100

Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College   <1 in 100 Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College   
10 in 100

No one wins the Electoral College No candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election
<1 in 100

Trump wins at least one state that Clinton won in 2016   
37 in 100

Biden wins at least one state that Trump won in 2016   
92 in 100

The map stays exactly the same as it was in 2016 Each candidate wins exactly the same states that his party won in 2016
<1 in 100

The election hinges on a recount Candidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states
5 in 100

[DaleCooper]

Why do they have an option for a polls-only model for the Senate but not the presidency?

Because it would show Biden with higher chance of winning.

Nate is deathly afraid of making it look like Trump has no chance, so he's cooked the model this year to ensure Trump gets all of the favors... including gutting the polls-only model

I'm wondering what happens when we get to just one or two days before the election, assuming state polls stay steady. Silver said that Biden would have more than a 90-something % chance of winning if the election were held tomorrow, but I doubt he's comfortable with that being the last prediction on his model the day of the election.

[The Mikado]

Why do they have an option for a polls-only model for the Senate but not the presidency?

Because it would show Biden with higher chance of winning.

Nate is deathly afraid of making it look like Trump has no chance, so he's cooked the model this year to ensure Trump gets all of the favors... including gutting the polls-only model

I'm wondering what happens when we get to just one or two days before the election, assuming state polls stay steady. Silver said that Biden would have more than a 90-something % chance of winning if the election were held tomorrow, but I doubt he's comfortable with that being the last prediction on his model the day of the election.

I think he'd let it through if it was the final model output. 2012 ended up at Obama with a 91% win chance on 538 and that race looked close on paper because there was a pretty big polling error in Romney's favor. (Final polling averages had Obama ~+1 nationally rather than the Obama ~+4 result)

[Figueira]

ME-2 is now at exactly 50-50.

[jdk]

Why do they have an option for a polls-only model for the Senate but not the presidency?

Because it would show Biden with higher chance of winning.

Nate is deathly afraid of making it look like Trump has no chance, so he's cooked the model this year to ensure Trump gets all of the favors... including gutting the polls-only model

Doesn't he realize that even if his model says 51-49 for Biden, and Trump wins, people will say the same things that they said last time?

[Splash]

ME-2 is now at exactly 50-50.

It looks like it's shaded blue on their snake chart.

[Figueira]

ME-2 is now at exactly 50-50.

It looks like it's shaded blue on their snake chart.

Probably it's 50.01% Biden or something like that, but they rounded it to 50. Either that, or they have an algorithm for what color to display if the numbers are equal.

[Gass3268]

Biden up a % point to 78% today.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Biden up a % point to 78% today.

We did it, fellas!

[wbrocks67]

Biden up a % point to 78% today.

"good polling day for the president"

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden up a % point to 78% today.

I find it ironic how the day that Biden supporters freak out about 2 ABC polls is the same day Biden's chance shoots up.

[Horus]

Biden up a % point to 78% today.

"good polling day for the president"

I mean, it was. Biden's chances edged up because time is running out, not because polls were super favorable for him.

[Gass3268]

Back to 77%, lol.

[tinman64]

Back to 77%, lol.

Whoop!

77-22 now. Looks like adjustments to FL (Biden was at 60, now 58) and AZ (Biden was 68, now 65). Still favoring Biden overall.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden up a % point to 78% today.

I find it ironic how the day that Biden supporters freak out about 2 ABC polls is the same day Biden's chance shoots up.

More 'expected' than 'ironic'

[The Mikado]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/mississippi/

Biden, apparently, has a 14% chance of winning Mississippi.

1 in 7 chance. Of winning Mississippi.

1 in 7.

EDIT:

For comparison: Trump has a 12% chance of winning Michigan. So 538 thinks its more likely that Biden wins Mississippi than that Trump wins Michigan.

[Stuart98]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/mississippi/

Biden, apparently, has a 14% chance of winning Mississippi.

1 in 7 chance. Of winning Mississippi.

1 in 7.

The Economist's model gives him only a 2% chance, which sounds more realistic when every single poll in the state has shown Trump +10 at worst. We have yet to have a poll in the state with higher than B+ quality though.

[pantsaregood]

My reaction to the model showing NV has a higher chance of flipping than WI:

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1306948970804117511

Saying Florida polls look "weak" when a Trump +1 state has recent polls as Biden +5, Biden +3, Biden +1, seems.... like really bad analysis.

"Time running out" while polls are nearly unchanging would be enough to reduce Trump chances of winning.

[American2020]

It's a toss-up in Ohio


Probability
Trump: 52%
Biden: 48%

Projected vote share for Nov. 3
Trump: 49.7%
Biden: 49.3%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/

[Crumpets]

SurveyMonkey shows Trump +2 in Nevada: Nevada 82% Biden -> 74% Biden
SurveyMonkey shows Biden +4 in Montana: Montana 87% Trump -> 85% Trump

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[n1240]

Biden has taken the lead in Ohio in the model after the Fox News poll.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It seems at though the Survey Monkey polls were suddenly removed from the averages.