Why Do Trump Supporters Act Like His Election Is Certain?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Totally irrelevant thread-derailing fun fact: see that little region that dips down between Egypt and Sudan (to the East of the Nile)?

It's a region known as Bir Tawil.  Basically, both Sudan and Egypt have been fighting over who actually owns it, with each side claiming the other is the rightful owner.  Bir Tawil is extremely inhospitable and lacks any major resources.  

The reason is that for which-ever nation claims it, the other nation recieves that triangular piece of land (the Halaib Triangle) that sits next to the Red Sea.  By contrast, this piece of land is quite rich with resources -- especially oil.  

Bir Tawil is actually a no man’s land claimed by neither country, they’re just fighting over the Halaib Triangle.

If anybody felt the motivation to do so, they could move there, declare sovereignty, and proclaim themselves rulers of the Bir Tawil territory, and nobody would stop them.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Totally irrelevant thread-derailing fun fact: see that little region that dips down between Egypt and Sudan (to the East of the Nile)?

It's a region known as Bir Tawil.  Basically, both Sudan and Egypt have been fighting over who actually owns it, with each side claiming the other is the rightful owner.  Bir Tawil is extremely inhospitable and lacks any major resources.  

The reason is that for which-ever nation claims it, the other nation recieves that triangular piece of land (the Halaib Triangle) that sits next to the Red Sea.  By contrast, this piece of land is quite rich with resources -- especially oil.  

Bir Tawil is actually a no man’s land claimed by neither country, they’re just fighting over the Halaib Triangle.

If anybody felt the motivation to do so, they could move there, declare sovereignty, and proclaim themselves rulers of the Bir Tawil territory, and nobody would stop them.

The amusing catch is that given the specific demarcation issue in question, any side that formally claims Bir Tawil is equally renouncing its claim to the Halaib Triangle. Thus its status as no man's land.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That list just about covers it. Though I would add denial to it. Some, deep-down, may be anxious and panicking about what will happen to their dear leader but deal with that by doing what he does, escaping into their fantasy reality. That assumes that they don't outright dismiss the data and signals of their liege losing though, I might be giving them too much credit for being able to logically mentally process something at all.

[Calthrina950]

There is some truth to this. As you know, Staten Island went for Trump by nearly 16% in 2016, and there are parts of Brooklyn that are heavily Republican-primarily Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods. In Wyoming, Teton County is the only Safe Democratic county, and Albany County is a swing county-the remainder of the state is inflexibly Republican. Even in heavily Democratic cities aside from New York City, like Chicago, Los Angeles, and Denver, to give a few examples, there are hundreds of thousands of Trump voters living within them.

However, I also think it is true that political isolation is a factor for many Democratic voters. Someone living in San Francisco, which voted 85% for Hillary Clinton, is surrounded by counties that were only slightly less supportive of her, like Alameda and Marin Counties, and may be at a disconnect from their political opposites. Many of the "#Resistance" types tend to live in these kinds of places, and express their views accordingly.

In fairness, even in areas that are uniformly for one party, there are still a lot of voters of the opposite party. This is especially true of heavily democratic cities, but it also exists on rural republican areas.

For example, sure; Cook County (using it as an example) only gave 21% of its vote to Trump. However that is still more than 450 000 people; which is a lot of people. In fact, roughly 1 in every 5 Trump voters in Illinois lived in Cook county.

It seems as if you misread my post. I was pointing out this exact same fact in my first paragraph, when I mentioned Staten Island and the Orthodox pockets of Brooklyn, and I specifically talked about the hundreds of thousands of Trump voters who live in heavily Democratic cities. It works in reverse for rural Republican areas, as you note-I've read that something like half of Hillary Clinton's votes came from states that voted for Trump. Throughout much of the Deep South, for example, there is a large black minority in predominantly white counties that went for Clinton and has gone for other Democrats.

[Senator-elect Spark]

It's not folks. Just likely.

[brucejoel99]

Several reasons. Some of them are simply not that informed: either they're filtering their information to start with so that they only see the positive aspects of Trump's chances, or they're relying on the "polls were wrong in 2016 so who cares" logic. Both of these are obviously flawed perspectives, but being confident & being right are two different things.

However, even for those more rational supporters, they do have a point. The election is still 4 & a 1/2 months away, & that's basically an eternity in politics. Just because Biden has a lead now doesn't mean he will then, especially if you think Biden is already a weak &/or flawed candidate (as most Trump supporters would). For all we know, it's possible that mid-June is the absolute low point of Trump's campaign: the virus might not get much worse than it already is, & even if it does, it's quite possible that it might not hurt Trump any more than it already is now, & Biden hasn't yet had to campaign & endure vicious attacks from Trump &/or weather his own mistakes.

There are just so many unknowns, & if you naturally believe your candidate is stronger & right & an overall better fit, then it's not unreasonable for you to think that Trump is in a good position, especially when you consider the significant advantage that is incumbency.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Because they truly believe stuff like this:
https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1273454389982908417

What's bleakly amusing about it is that since the coward Donald Trump is so lacking in imagination that he cannot invent slurs from whole cloth, what he's really doing is confessing as usual.

Mr. Trump is fractally fake. From his billions and business down to his shoes and his hair, to the words coming out of his mouth, all of it is untrue. Whatever perspective one examines Mr. Trump from, all you will find is untruth.

(I'd love to see a reporter ask him which direction the sun rises. Even money says he's couldn't manage "the East".)

[Florian Geyer]

I'm not sure. I'm more confused why some leftists/socialists think that Trump is sure to win because they think Biden=Hilary. Biden and Hilary are different in a lot of ways that matter (perception by the public chiefly).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are leftist still out there angry at how Biden was selected over Bernie, and so was Hilary selected over Bernie, too. Hilary was the first lady of Prez Clinton, she was admired by Ds, not by Indies and Rs. Biden is more popular with indies and R and not as popular by leftist, due to the fact he was Veep, not Prez. But the election isnt over and will see if Biden keeps his surge up.

There is always a rally around the flag around the incumbent Prez, and Evangelicals can rally like last time

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Because they confuse land area with popular support.

Seriously. It's also how they justify the Electoral College. They seem to think that square miles can vote.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Because they confuse land area with popular support.

Seriously. It's also how they justify the Electoral College. They seem to think that square miles can vote.

Because land owners are pateiots and people who rent small apartmnets in NYC (Like myself) are communists socialists who don't believe in the right to own property.